From Climate Projections to Farm-Level Risk: A Multi-Hazard Assessment for Dairy Farming in Aydin, Türkiye

Global climate datasets are increasingly accessible, but their utility depends on how well they can be adapted to the conditions of specific sectors and places. This study presents the Phase 2 outcomes of the Climate Resilience Enhancement in Dairy Farming (CliResDairy) project in Aydin, Türkiye, showing how large-scale climate projections can be systematically downscaled and applied to local agricultural risk assessment.

Aydin’s dairy sector, dominated by small and medium scale farms, is highly sensitive to climate hazards but historically lacked localized adaptation planning. We used the CLIMAAX Handbook to move beyond high-level screening, developing a targeted risk assessment specifically for Aydin’s dairy sector. The methodology  integrated EURO-CORDEX (EUR-11) multi-model  projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with high-resolution regional and local data. We localized the data by pairing regional hazards with district level indicators, including livestock density, topography, and the availability of on farm cooling systems.

The multi-risk assessment evaluated heatwaves, agricultural drought, extreme precipitation, and river flooding. Converting climatic variables into sector-specific indicators allowed the study to quantify concrete local impacts: heat stress alone could cut milk yields by 250 liters per cow annually in the hardest-hit districts. This comes alongside declining fertility rates and the rising cost of keeping cows cool. Agricultural drought modeling indicated up to 60% yield losses for vital forage crops under rainfed conditions. Additionally, customized rain-on-grid hydrodynamic modeling revealed a 20-30% increase in 100 year river flood depths, directly threatening farm infrastructure.

Field visits, surveys, and a stakeholder workshop involving 124 participants, all from producers to policymakers, were used to ground-truth climate data and translate it into meaningful economic and operational impact indicators.

The CliResDairy project validates the CLIMAAX methodology under real regional conditions. The results demonstrate that spatial downscaling is achievable when multi model climate ensembles are paired with local infrastructure data and direct stakeholder input. This combination produces adaptation strategies that are grounded in measurable risk and immediately applicable to the farming operations most exposed to climate change.