Evaluating the Structure of Weather Warnings: A Mixed-Methods Study of the German Meteorological Service’s Communication

As extreme weather events become more frequent, clear and effective communication of weather warnings is crucial for safeguarding lives and property. Warnings are only effective if they are understood and acted upon, highlighting the importance of well-structured warning messages. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends that warnings include not only the meteorological hazard but also expected impacts and recommended protective actions. However, the guidance does not mandate a specific order or level of detail, empirical findings on optimal sequencing are mixed, and implementation across meteorological services is inconsistent.

In the context of the renewal of its warning system within the RainBoW program (“Risk-based, Application-oriented and Individualizable Provision of Optimized Warning Information”), the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) conducted a pre-registered, quota-representative study in Germany (N = 801) and a pilot study (N = 120). This research examined (1) public preferences for naming the main sections of a weather warning (recommended actions, potential impacts, meteorological situation), (2) the preferred order of these sections, and (3) how the number of recommended actions at the highest warning level affects how many items can be effectively recalled. Participants completed ranking tasks to assess preferred section labels and order, and were randomly assigned to view either a short (four recommended actions) or long (nine recommended actions) version of a weather warning. After viewing the warning for at least 10 seconds, participants were asked to freely recall its content. Responses to other warning elements, as well as perception of the warnings, and background information were also collected.

Results show clear preferences for section headings: participants favoured “Ways to Protect Yourself” for recommended actions and “Weather Situation” for meteorological information. Regarding section order, participants generally preferred the meteorological situation first (e.g., wind speed), followed by potential impacts (e.g., falling trees), and recommended actions (e.g., stay indoors) last. Recall was low across all sections in both conditions, potentially suggesting limited retention of warning content regardless of message length.

These findings offer concrete guidance for structuring and labelling warning messages, inform DWD’s ongoing update of its warning communication strategy, and illustrate how social science research can enhance the effectiveness of weather warnings and, ultimately, public safety during extreme weather events.