Compound Climate Extremes in Türkiye: A Storyline of Record-Breaking 2025 Heatwaves and Cascading Agricultural Impacts

In 2025, Türkiye experienced a series of compound climate extremes that led to significant cross-sectoral impacts. The year was recorded as the fifth-warmest in the last 55 years, with a mean temperature of 15.1°C, 1.2°C above the 1991-2020 normal. A new national absolute maximum temperature record was set in Silopi, located in the Southeastern Anatolia region, at 50.5°C. In parallel with these high temperatures, the country experienced its most severe meteorological drought since 1964, with annual precipitation 27.6% below the long-term average. This study uses a storyline approach to analyze how these atmospheric conditions created cascading risks for the agricultural sector. Meteorological data from 220 stations showed that 268 days of the year had positive temperature anomalies. Heatwave analysis revealed a marked increase in both frequency and duration compared to the 1991-2020 base period. While the historical average for heatwave duration is generally between 5 and 10 days, this period reached 34 days in Şırnak, situated near the southeastern border. Additionally, Tokat, located in the inner Black Sea transition zone, experienced the highest frequency with 5 separate heatwave events. These thermal extremes occurred alongside widespread water stress, as confirmed by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) assessments, which showed varying levels of drought across nearly all regions. The combined effects of these record heatwaves and rainfall deficits led to production declines across primary crop categories. According to 2025 agricultural statistics, wheat and barley production decreased by 13.7% and 25.9%, respectively. Significant losses were also noted in industrial crops and resilient perennials such as olives, 34.7%, reflecting the severity of the moisture deficit. These findings show how localized temperature and precipitation extremes can cascade into national food security risks, highlighting the need for integrated, cross-sectoral adaptation strategies in the Eastern Mediterranean basin.

Keywords: Compound Extremes, Heatwave Frequency, Drought Monitoring, Crop Yield Loss, Eastern Mediterranean.