Impacts of an AMOC collapse on the Caribbean Climate

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important feature of the Atlantic Ocean circulation transporting a large amount of heat into the North Atlantic (about 1.2 Pw at 26.5˚N), that strongly affects the Atlantic climate and its adjacent regions, including Western European and the Caribbean.

One of the possible tipping points induced by global warming is a collapse of the AMOC. Recent research suggests that an irreversible AMOC collapse might already start this century even under low emission scenarios^1,2,3. Using state-of-the-art climate models of the latest IPCC report (CMIP6) we have investigated the impact of such an imminent AMOC collapse for the Caribbean climate for a low emission scenario. On average the time scale for a total collapse is more than a century. In the worst case resulting in a severe reduction in annual mean rainfall for specific regions in the Caribbean of about 70%. Other significant implications of an AMOC collapse are a reduction of the increase in surface temperatures in the order of one degree °C, an increase in sea level rise of about 10 cm, and less favourable conditions for hurricane activity. These findings quantify Caribbean climate change impacts in the event of an AMOC collapse, complementing existing climate scenarios.

 

References

• Ditlevsen, P., & Ditlevsen, S. (2023). Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications, 14(1), 1-12.
• Drijfhout, S., Angevaare, J. R., Mecking, J., van Westen, R. M., & Rahmstorf, S. (2025). Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9), 094062.
• Rahmstorf, S. (2024). Is the Atlantic overturning circulation approaching a tipping point? Oceanography, 37(3), 16-29.