Assessing the impacts of extreme temperature events on energy systems in France

Climate change increases the frequence and severity of extreme events (Planton et al., 2008 ; Goodess, 2013). Understand their impacts become then a priority for risk management and adaptation planning (Gkika et al., 2023). In this context the energy sector is more and more exposed to climate hazards, which can simultaneously affect supply (Jerez et al., 2015; Añel et al., 2017), demand (Staffell, Pfenninger, 2018), and infrastructure performance  (Guddanti et al., 2024). This work focuses on assessing the impacts of extreme temperatures (heatwaves and cold spells) on energy systems in France. The aim is to identify systemic vulnerabilities under current and future climate conditions.To do so, we have developed a multi-approach framework to link climatic variables with power system outputs. This methodology enables the quantification of the exposure and sensitivity of electric networks to extreme weather conditions. Models of energy supply (nuclear, solar and wind) and demand used rely on weather variables as inputs, combine with installed capacity for supply estimation. We use climate analogues of the targeted event to construct factual and counterfactual, respectively affected and not affected by climate change. This allows to evaluate changes in climate variables and then to link these changes to energy metrics. To illustrate the framework, we present a case study of the August 2023 French heatwave. This event was characterized by extreme temperatures in southern regions due to a persistent heat dome, while the northern regions remained largely unaffected. On the electricity side, transmission outages were reported, highlighting the sensitivity of the grid and therefore positions it as a relevant example for a case study.The results of the analysis reveal climate change-driven impacts on both supply and demand. The extreme temperatures led to an increase in energy demand. These temperatures also affect nuclear efficiency, producing a decrease in nuclear availability. In addition, the lack of wind, decrease the wind production. Thus, the use of climate analogs provides a valuable tool for attributing changes in energy sector (here supply and demand) to climate change.

References

J. Añel, et al. “Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector.” 2017. 

A. Gkika et al. “Battling the Extreme: Lessons Learned from Weather-Induced Disasters on Electricity Distribution Networks and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies.” 2023.

C. Goodess, “How Is the Frequency, Location and Severity of Extreme Events Likely to Change up to 2060?” 2013

KP. Guddanti et al. “A Comprehensive Review: Impacts of Extreme Temperatures Due to Climate Change on Power Grid Infrastructure and Operation.”  2024

S. Jerez, et al. “The Impact of Climate Change on Photovoltaic Power Generation in Europe.”  2015.

S. Planton, et al. “Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Events.”  2008

I. Staffell, S. Pfenninger. “The Increasing Impact of Weather on Electricity Supply and Demand.” 2018.