A Study of Meteorological Conditions at Mediterranean Airports in a Changing Climate using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models

The aviation sector has an important socio-economic role both through the transport of goods and services as well as tourism. Recent estimates of the total gross economic impact of the aviation sector are estimated to be approximately €500 billion (2.8% of the total economy) in the European Economic Area, which is expected to grow as demands for global connectivity are ever increasing. With nearly 7 million take-offs and landings of commercial flights recorded at airports in the European Union during 2024, there is also a growing pressure on airports to increase the number of airplane movements. 

The frequency of take-off and landings is strongly influenced by the surface and lower-atmospheric conditions near the airports (e.g. temperature, (gust) wind speed, wind direction, precipitation). In unfavourable conditions, this can lead to flights’ diversions and cancellations or delays to assure safe operating conditions, consequently resulting in potential high economic losses for the aviation industry. Knowing these atmospheric conditions is therefore essential for planning routes and airports’ operations. 

In this study we investigate the average seasonal surface conditions for a wide range of Mediterranean airports by combining the information from surface observations and the results from high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate models. Using the future simulations of the same models, we also estimate how several key surface variables might differ in a future changing climate. Due to the high resolution of these models (~3 km at hourly resolution) and the length of the simulations, these are among the first simulations that allow us a detailed look at the future atmospheric conditions near individual airports. Providing this essential information will allow a more efficient planning of future airport activities.

Acknowledgements

This research has been carried out with funding from Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca under the call Fondo Italiano per la Scienza 2022-2023 (FIS-2) for the project "Mediterranean Extreme Events and Tipping elements in a changing climate on multiple spatiotemporal scales", grant number FIS-2023-00159, CUP: D53C24005450001.