Designing User-Centred Warning Systems: Insights from Natural Hazard Consultants in the Canton of Bern, Switzerland

Recent years have been marked by increasingly frequent and intense extreme events, including severe convective storms and heavy precipitation, often leading to significant impacts such as flooding and landslides. Climate change is expected to further amplify these trends, thereby increasing socio-economic risks and placing growing demands on local authorities and risk managers. In this context, effective warning systems are essential to support timely preparedness and informed decision-making. However, the mere availability of advanced forecasts does not necessarily translate into effective action. To be actionable, warnings must be aligned with the specific responsibilities, capacities, and decision-making processes of their users.

Understanding these user-specific requirements is therefore essential for improving the design and implementation of warning systems. In the Canton of Bern, Switzerland, natural hazard consultants play a central role in advising municipal authorities on hazard assessment and management, both in preparedness phases and during ongoing events. Their tasks include monitoring evolving weather conditions, assessing potential impacts, and supporting both operational and strategic decisions. Based on interviews with these consultants, this study investigates their experiences with and perceptions of existing forecasts and warning products in practice. We examine which types of information are most relevant for decision-making and how forecast uncertainty influences their actions. In addition, we explore user requirements for future warning systems, with particular focus on spatial and temporal scales, the communication of uncertainty, and the added value of impact-based information to better support local risk management.

By focusing on the needs and experiences of natural hazard consultants, this work provides insights into the development of more user-centred and operationally relevant warning systems, ultimately supporting more effective decision-making in high-impact weather situations.