Using tales of future weather to increase resilience for weather and climate extremes

In recent years, we have unfortunately seen all too often how vulnerable our society is to weather and climate extremes (heatwaves, extreme precipitation events, etc.). In the context of climate change, it becomes even more important to better prepare society as a whole for such events. It turns out to be a difficult challenge to provide knowledge and data that truly resonate with actors in resilience. In Belgium, the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) and Climate Risk Assessment Center (CERAC) have joined forces to strengthen society’s resilience to future weather and climate extremes in a very concrete way through so-called Tales of Future Weather. The method starts by selecting a plausible future extreme event from climate projections. This case is then thoroughly framed within past climate and historical extremes, as well as within national climate projections. Next, the impact of this event is calculated as accurately as possible together with experts and various stakeholders from different sectors (health, economy, infrastructure, agriculture,...), and the results are brought together in a fictionalized narrative. Based on this narrative, sector-specific workshops are organized to reflect on vulnerabilities and preparedness for such an extreme event; are there certain cascading effects we do not yet know? Will our current crisis plans be able to cope with this situation? Based on these sector discussions, a parallel Tale will be developed again for the same extreme event, but this time set in a Belgium that is better prepared. In this way, a long-term vision (and a more hopeful message) can be developed. Finally, the entire cycle will conclude with communication to the broader public, in order to raise awareness about extreme events.

During the presentation, we would like to share how we developed a Tale of a Future Heatwave using this approach and what concrete impact it has had on various stakeholders.