Toward the national climate scenario in the Czech Republic - Project PERUN

In parallel with overal effort in many European countries there were activities to construct the projections of climate changes in the Czech Republic in the past, especially with respect to overal assessment of potential impacts as well as for planning of adaptation measures to prevent the damages especially from extreme events. It was mostly done within both quasi-periodic overal projects, usually in connection to national reports, and different, rather smaller not so much connected projects for individual sectors.  After certain gap the Ministry of Environment came with the program on „Environment for Life“ with a set of topics on the status of environment in the Czech Republic, one of them with the call for climate change and its impacts, especially in connection to hydrology, i.e. the isue of etreme events like droughts and floodings. From this call, the project PERUN coordinated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute has come out, which really aimed to provide comprehensive suite of climate scenarios targetted to the Czech Republic.

The aim of the project is to create a „research centre“, based on cooperation of most of the relevant institutes and organisations that are focusing on research in the field of climate change in a long term perspective. It concerns an analysis of the ongoing and prediction of future change, including identification of risks for the environment and society. The output will be the most up-to-date data necessary for the preparation and updating of strategic documents as well as for decision-making processes not only within area of climate change adaptation, but also for evaluation of mitigation measures in the process of their preparation and implementation. The output of the particular objectives described in the project will be a publicly accessible and comprehensive research report supplemented by open databases, certified methodologies and, of course, scientific publications.

The scenarios are based on downscaling of selected model (CNRM) from CMIP6 suite using regional climate model ALADIN in convection permitting mode with very high resolution, accompanied with overal analysis of the full CMIP6 ensemble and EuroCORDEX CMIP5 downscaling ensemble to assess the potential effects of other climate sensitivities and uncertainties.