Relative sea-level rise in the Northern Adriatic (Italy): future scenarios for the Emilia-Romagna coast up to 2150

Coastal regions of the Mediterranean basin are increasingly experiencing the impacts of climate change. Among these, sea-level rise (SLR), combined with land subsidence and storm surges, represents a major hazard for coastal environments, affecting urban areas, transport systems, ports, and other critical infrastructures. Low-lying coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to accelerating SLR, which enhances the exposure of coastal communities to flooding, shoreline retreat, and erosion. Rising sea level can also amplify the impacts of extreme events such as storm surges and tsunami. In this context, the Northern Adriatic Sea represents one of the most vulnerable sectors of the Mediterranean due to the combined effects of global SLR and significant vertical land motion (VLM), with prevailing subsidence. This study investigates future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) scenarios along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy) up to 2150, with particular attention to the role of differential subsidence and its implications for coastal infrastructures. The analysis integrates multiple datasets: (i) InSAR data from the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service and GNSS geodetic data from local networks to quantify the subsidence rates in the investigated area; (ii) Airborne LiDAR data provided by the Italian Ministry of the Environment to generate high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for projecting potential flooding extents; and (iii) SLR projections from the IPCC AR6 under different SSP climate scenarios for the Mediterranean basin, revised for current rates of VLM. Finally, we provide a classification of the different areas according to their exposure and risks to the combined effects of VLM, SLR and storm surges, producing heterogeneous patterns of coastal vulnerability and identifying critical coastal infrastructures at risk of inundation. Our findings provide new insights into the combined effects of climate-driven SLR and land subsidence in the Northern Adriatic, support the development of adaptation strategies and coastal risk mitigation measures also for other vulnerable Mediterranean coastal systems.