An Indicator‑Based Multi‑Hazard Methodology for National Agricultural Climate‑Risk Assessment of Slovenia

Climate change presents increasing risks to agriculture, making it essential to support adaptation measures grounded in systematic climate risk assessment. This study presents the methodology used for a national climate risk assessment for Slovene agriculture, based on the IPCC AR5 framework and applied across nine major production sectors. The approach emphasises a transparent indicator structure, scenario-based assessment, and explicit integration of sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators.

The methodology consists of four steps: (1) selection of climate hazards, including drought, heat, spring frost, extreme rainfall and erosion, floods, pests and diseases, and hail; (2) definition of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators using national climate, soil, and agricultural datasets; (3) evaluation of hazard probability using historical data (1981–2010) and projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2041–2070 and 2071–2100); and (4) integration of all components into risk matrices. Indicators include soil depth, texture, organic matter, water resource availability, crop distribution, protective systems such as irrigation, hail nets, and frost protection, and qualitative assessments for livestock and beekeeping. The selection of hazards, indicators, thresholds, and weighting factors was refined through two participatory workshops with experts from research institutions, ministries, advisory services, and sectoral stakeholders.

A key strength of this approach is the combination of spatially explicit biophysical metrics (12 × 12 km grid) with socio-technical adaptive capacity indicators that reflect sectors' preparedness. These include the very limited coverage of irrigation systems, the proportion of drought‑tolerant crops, the use of greenhouses and protective nets, and expert evaluations of livestock housing, ventilation, and water access. Although most hazards intensify under both RCP scenarios, risk levels differ markedly among sectors because adaptive capacity varies. Heat and pest/disease risks show the most pronounced increases due to rising numbers of warm and wet days. Drought and hail risks remain high where adaptive capacity is weak, whereas frost risk shows mixed signals depending on the indicator used. While results are presented at the national scale, the methodology is suitable for future regional refinement and for informing agricultural and climate policy planning.

Several limitations affect the assessment: precipitation projections carry considerable uncertainty; some indicators lack scientifically established thresholds; and adaptive capacity is difficult to quantify due to fragmented or incomplete datasets. These constraints underscore the need for improved data availability, refined thresholds and weighting schemes, and enhanced monitoring systems to strengthen future risk assessments.

This work provides a structured, transferable framework for national climate risk assessment in agriculture, linking scientific indicators to social preparedness and stakeholder knowledge. The study was funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food of the Republic of Slovenia.