Proxy-based reconstructions of the Last Interglacial peak indicate changes in precipitation characteristics in the Levant. These reconstructions suggest that precipitation occurred in brief and intense events, particularly in the region's southern parts. Some studies have offered conflicting paradigms for explaining hydroclimate variability. However, these have yet to be consistently tested in a modeling framework. Indeed, the modeling approach can undoubtedly enhance the combined interpretation of proxy records and our understanding of past hydroclimate processes. We used simulations from the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 4th phase (PMIP4) to evaluate and reconstruct the precipitation characteristics of the Levant. First, we identify the Alfred Wagner Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM) as one that largely resembles proxy reconstructions. Then we used it to understand hydroclimate variability. We examined changes in the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the Levant's rain-bearing weather types, including Cyprus Lows and Red Sea Troughs. We further decomposed the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the water balance, comparing the Last Interglacial peak with Pre-Industrial times. Based on differences in daily mean precipitation, we provide evidence that the rain-bearing weather types yielded significantly more precipitation (≈ +20%) during the Last Interglacial peak. This increase is most evident in the southern Levant, where higher precipitation occurs during Red Sea Trough days, primarily due to thermodynamic changes. Minor differences in the frequency and persistence of these weather types were found. Our research offers insights into historical hydroclimate changes in the Levant, broadening our understanding of future climate impacts driven by natural variability

How to cite: Bril, E., Torfstein, A., Yaniv, R., and Hochman, A.: Hydroclimatic Variability and Weather Type Characteristics in the Levant During the Last Interglacial, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-177, 2026.

We examine the interannual variability of surface air temperature throughout the Holocene and the associated mechanisms by using our new set of Holocene transient simulations spanning from 11.5 ka before present to the preindustrial period. The interannual variability of annual, winter, and summer temperature increases with a linear trend of 0.005, 0.007, and 0.005 °C/ka globally since 11.5 ka, respectively. The temperature variability evolution can be explained by the orbital forcing in most regions, with an additional impact from the retreat of ice sheets over North America and Europe but overall little effect from the change of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In response to the insolation change from the early to late Holocene primarily due to the precession, variations in energy balance components contribute to the enhanced temperature variability by a global mean of 8−10%. Specifically, surface net heat flux and radiation flux at the top of atmosphere generally play dominant roles, while atmospheric energy convergence minus storage partially offsets it at the global scale. Regionally, cloud effects and sea surface temperature variability are important in low latitudes, while sea ice changes are main factors in mid- to high-latitude oceans. Due to the seasonal contrast in insolation, various responses of global surface mean temperature and its meridional gradient, sea ice fraction, total cloud, and surface soil moisture result in the seasonal difference of temperature variability change, particularly in the Arctic Ocean and northern continents. The simulated temperature variability change throughout the Holocene is qualitatively consistent with most of the available proxy data, although uncertainties still exist from both sides.

How to cite: Tian, Z. and Shi, J.: Global patterns of increasing interannual variability of surface air temperature throughout the Holocene, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-41, 2026.

Permafrost, a defining feature of high-latitude landscapes, has undergone rapid degradation in recent decades as a result of ongoing global warming. One of the clearest indicators of this process is the loss of permafrost area. While recent retreat is well documented, few studies have placed changes in permafrost extent within the context of pre-industrial natural variability. Here, we show that recent permafrost retreat is very likely unprecedented over the last 2,000 years, the Common Era (CE). To do so, we derive permafrost area estimates using a probabilistic model that relates mean annual air temperatures to the likelihood of permafrost occurrence (PROB). We apply PROB to all available MAAT gridded data sources spanning all or part of the Common Era, including simulations from the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 4 (PMIP3 and PMIP4), reanalyses, and reconstruction products. Across datasets, we estimate a permafrost area decrease of 0.7 to 2.5 million km², with the largest losses occurring along the southern margins of discontinuous permafrost.

A direct consequence of permafrost retreat is an increase in the amount of soil organic carbon that is available for microbial decomposition. This work shows that recent permafrost retreat would account for 43 and 138 PgC of newly vulnerable soil organic carbon. The resulting carbon emissions may have already contributed up to 0.2 °C of additional global warming, with important implications for the pan-Arctic environment and the stability of the global climate system. Our results highlight the value of Earth system model simulations for assessing permafrost variability over the Common Era, particularly when interpreted alongside proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions.

How to cite: García Pereira, F., González Rouco, F., and Meabe Yanguas, N.: Recent Permafrost Retreat Is Likely Unprecedented Over the Common Era, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-793, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-793, 2026.

To understand the climate conditions in Japan before the commencement of modern official meteorological observations, it is necessary to indirectly estimate them using proxy data that serve as climate indicators.In Japan, there is a nearly continuous annual dataset of Lake Suwa's freezing records spanning over 580 years. Furthermore, diaries from various parts of Japan contain daily weather records. By utilizing these records, daily climate data with the minimum temporal resolution can be obtained. By leveraging these proxies, it is possible to reconstruct the climate of the cold season, which has been previously less understood, across various temporal and spatial scales.The objective of this study is to reconstruct the changes in cold-season climate in Japan over the past several hundred years with high temporal resolution.The proxy data currently used include: lake and terrestrial sediments (Lake Suwa, approximately 1000 years), records of cherry blossom flowering and full bloom dates primarily collected in Kyoto (approximately 1000 years), tree rings (approximately 300 years), daily weather records from diaries (approximately 200 years), freezing records of Lake Suwa and Lake Jusan (approximately 580 and 150 years, respectively), early-meteorological observation data (approximately 50 years), and Japan Meteorological Agency observation data (approximately 150 years). Firstly, the most extensive dataset, the cherry blossom flowering data, is used as a reference. Next, proxy variables are standardized after removing trends caused by human activities. Subsequently, regression analysis is performed for each period where variations either coincide or do not coincide. Furthermore, for each proxy variable, spatial correlations were calculated using 20th-century meteorological observation data to identify the regions represented by that proxy variable.

How to cite: Hirano, J., Hasegawa, N., Katata, G., Mikami, T., Yonenobu, H., Yasue, K., Takahashi, H., Zaiki, M., kumon, F., and Hatano, N.: Reconstruction of Japan's Cold-Season Climate in the Past Few Hundred Years Using High-Resolution Multi-Proxy, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-428, 2026.

Historical climatology uses human-produced records (e.g., weather descriptions from written evidence) and early instrumental evidence predating modern national weather networks to reconstruct past climates. As a multidisciplinary field, it enables not only the reconstruction of climatic signals in pre-industrial decades, but also the assessment of societal vulnerability to climate extremes and the study of the history of meteorological observations.

In this context, the earliest coordinated meteorological observation system worldwide - characterized by standardized instruments (i.e., the Little Florentine thermometer) and observational protocols - is the Medici Network (1654 - 1670), funded by the Medici family. It comprised eleven observation stations, seven located in Italian cities and four in Paris (France), Warsaw (Poland), Innsbruck (Austria), Osnabrück (Germany). Previous research has validated the instruments and methods and analyzed north-facing Little Florentine thermometer data, providing a robust basis for assessing measurement reliability.

However, despite their potential, data collected from south-facing Little Florentine thermometers remain largely underutilized and unpublished. A significant research gap lies in the lack of methodologies capable of integrating early instrumental series into physically based microclimate models of the built environments where measurements were taken. Existing literature has mainly focused on climate reconstruction, while the operational use of historical data for comparison with present and future climatic conditions - particularly in relation to building façade microclimates - remains limited.

This study proposes a methodological approach that integrates Medici Network data (i.e., outdoor wall-mounted Little Florentine thermometers) with high-resolution microclimate simulations conducted using ENVI-met, a three-dimensional model that simulates energy exchanges among atmosphere, surfaces, and built structures at the local scale. The methodology involves: (i) selecting and processing historical data series relevant to this preliminary phase, focusing specifically on stations in urban contexts to better capture long-term microclimatic changes, a key issue in urban areas; (ii) transforming these data into model-compatible inputs; (iii) developing comparative scenarios between historical and present-day building façade microclimate conditions. The approach is applied to multiple urban contexts characterized by diverse morphological and building configurations corresponding to the original Medici station locations.

Preliminary findings indicate differences in several meteorological parameters between past and present conditions. Moreover, comparisons across cities suggest the potential to investigate how climate change impacts vary across urban and geographical contexts. These results must be interpreted considering methodological constraints, particularly those related to adapting historical data to model requirements, as some variables are only available as interval-based approximations.

Future work will focus on integrating climate projections to enable comparisons across past, present, and future conditions. Overall, this study represents an initial step toward using early instrumental meteorological series not only for climate reconstruction but also as inputs for building façade simulations, helping bridge historical climatology and contemporary environmental modeling.

How to cite: Matoti, S., Bertolin, C., and Gherri, B.: Bridging Historical Climatology and Microclimate Modelling: Integrating Early Instrumental Data from the Medici Network (1654–1670), EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-657, 2026.

Extreme weather and climate events (WCEs), including severe frosts, cold and warm waves, and anomalous seasonal conditions, represent critical components of climate variability with profound societal impacts. While recent studies have reconstructed medieval extremes in Poland, the sixteenth century remains a particularly important yet underexplored period, marking the early phase of the Little Ice Age and characterized by increasing climatic instability across Europe.

This study reconstructs temperature-related extreme events in Poland during the 16th century using a comprehensive body of documentary evidence, including chronicles, municipal records, ecclesiastical sources, and early weather diaries. Following established historical climatology methodologies, all records were critically evaluated and systematically classified into five categories: severe frost, cold waves, river/lake/sea ice events, snow and snowstorms, and heat and warm waves. Each event was assigned temporal, spatial, and intensity attributes, along with a reliability assessment.

Preliminary results indicate a continued high frequency of winter-related extremes, particularly severe frosts and prolonged cold waves, often associated with extensive river and Baltic Sea ice formation. Compared to the late medieval period, the 16th century exhibits a persistence of cold extremes alongside a notable occurrence of summer heat and drought episodes. This dual signal suggests enhanced seasonal contrasts and increased interannual variability rather than uniform cooling. Temporal clustering of high-impact events is evident, with several decades characterized by repeated extreme conditions.

Spatial analysis reveals concentrations of recorded events along the Baltic coast and major river basins, reflecting both climatic exposure and the distribution of archival sources. Documentary evidence also highlights significant socio-economic impacts, including crop failures, transport disruption, and food shortages, indicating heightened societal vulnerability to compound climate hazards.

The reconstructed series is broadly consistent with other European studies documenting increased climate variability during the early Little Ice Age. By extending the analysis into the 16th century, this study provides a crucial bridge between medieval reconstructions and early instrumental observations, offering new insights into the evolution of extreme climate events and their impacts in Central Europe.

This research contributes to a better understanding of long-term climate variability and emphasizes the value of documentary evidence for assessing historical climate risks in the context of ongoing global change.

This work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.

How to cite: Akbari Moghaddam Sani, S., Przybylak, R., and Oliński, P.: Documentary evidence of extreme weather and climate events in Poland in the 16th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-207, 2026.

The Moravian Brethren began making meteorological observations in the Arctic in 1767 in SW Greenland (Neu-Herrnhut) and later in 1771 on the coast of Labrador (Nain). They continued to make observations in these two areas until the outbreak of World War II. Data preserved to date mostly covers the period from the beginning of measurements to the early 1790s, and from the first International Polar Year (1882/1883) to the early 20th century. Raw measurement data are available for these periods, typically for a few measurements per day. We have recently compiled and published these data. The purpose of this presentation is to inventory and digitise all other existing data for the period 1790s-1881. Usually, they are available as daily, monthly, seasonal, or annual averages. This period, the least documented, was called by Demarée and Ogilvie (2008) as the second period in which meteorological observations were conducted by the Moravian Brethren. Meteorological data are available in archives, in scientific papers published in 19th-century scientific journals, and in missionary journals. The most significant collection of data, covering the years 1840s–1870s, was compiled by the German astronomer Johann Lamont. It is available in manuscript form under the titles "Grönland file" and "Labrador file," Archiv Lehrstuhl für Ökologie, TU München. Unfortunately, it has not yet been made available to researchers. Based on the collected data, the climate in Greenland and coastal Labrador will be reconstructed for the study period.

  (The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653).

Reference: Demarée, G. R. and Ogilvie, A. E. J.: The Moravian missionaries at the Labrador coast and their centuries-long contribution to instrumental meteorological observations, Climatic Change, 91, 423–450, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9420-2, 2008.

How to cite: Przybylak, R., Araźny, A., Wyszyński, P., and Ghazi, B.: Weather and climate in southwestern Greenland and coastal Labrador, based on Moravian missionary records, 1790s–1881, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-193, 2026.

The contemporary warming observed on Earth is most pronounced in the Arctic and subarctic regions. Until the mid-20th century, human impact on the Arctic environment and climate was relatively limited, making reconstruction of past conditions essential for a better understanding of current and future climate change.

To date, relatively few climate studies have relied on historical meteorological data, and even fewer have used it to recognise bioclimatic conditions. To fill this gap, this study conducts a detailed analysis of available early-instrumental data to reconstruct the bioclimate of the study region.

Changes in bioclimatic conditions in the coastal part of  Labrador Peninsula were assessed using two sets of meteorological data from Hebron and Nain, located less than 200 km apart. The first covers a continuous 36-year period (September 1882 - July 1918), while the second spanned two shorter periods: 31 years (September 1882 - December 1913) and 12 years (December 1926 - March 1939). Moravian missionaries conducted meteorological measurements in Labrador on behalf of the Deutsche Seewarte (German Maritime Observatory). Reference data for the contemporary period (1991-2020) were obtained from the Canadian Climate Services Centre.

The measurement stations were equipped with tested and calibrated equipment provided by the Deutsche Seewarte in Hamburg. Observations were conducted in accordance with the institution's standard guidelines. Historical data gathered by the Moravian Brethren were then digitised and made available by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).

The meteorological observations used in the study included, among other things, measurements of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed and direction. These measurements were done three times per day, at 8:00 AM, 2:00 PM, and 8:00 PM. Based on this data, bioclimatic conditions were assessed using selected indicators: wind chill temperature (WCT) and predicted insulation loss (Iclp), as well as the impact of day-to-day changes in air temperature and atmospheric pressure.

The analysis includes monthly mean values of selected parameters, along with their interannual variability. Furthermore, the frequency of occurrence of specific categories of meteorological conditions was determined using bioclimatic indicators. The results obtained for the historical period were compared with contemporary conditions on the Labrador Peninsula.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.

How to cite: Chmist, K., Araźny, A., Przybylak, R., Singh, G., and Wyszyński, P.: Long-term variability of bioclimatic conditions in the coastal part of north-eastern Labrador from the late 19th to the mid-20th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2026, Utrecht, Netherlands, 6–11 Sep 2026, EMS2026-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-222, 2026.