One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales will be discussed and evaluated in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, etc.
Following the new WCPR strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.

A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects (e.g. EUCP, APPLICATE, PREFACE, MIKLIP, MEDSCOPE, SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E).

Solicited talk:
Multi-year prediction of ENSO
By Jing-Jia Luo from the Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Science Information and Technology, China

Co-organized as BG1.43/HS11.66/NH1.30/NP5.9/OS1.30
Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-conveners: Louis-Philippe Caron, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, June-Yi Lee, Stéphane Vannitsem
| Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room F2
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall X5

Tuesday, 9 April 2019 | Room F2

Chairperson: Andrea Alessandri, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, June-Yi Lee
08:30–08:45 |
| solicited
Jing-Jia Luo, Harry Hendon, and Oscar Alves
08:45–09:00 |
Jean-François Guérémy, Clotilde Dubois, Laurent Dorel, Constantin Ardilouze, and Lauriane Batté
09:00–09:15 |
Stefano Materia, Marianna Benassi, Constantin Ardilouze, Daniele Peano, Paolo Ruggieri, and Silvio Gualdi
09:15–09:30 |
Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, Francois Counillon, Madlen Kimmritz, Helene Langehaug, and Mats Bentsen
09:30–09:45 |
Leonard F. Borchert, André Düsterhus, Sebastian Brune, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Johanna Baehr
09:45–10:00 |
Panos Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, and Stefano Tibaldi
10:00–10:15 |
Julia Moemken, Hendrik Feldmann, Benjamin Buldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto