One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales will be discussed and evaluated in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, etc.
Following the new WCPR strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.

A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects (e.g. EUCP, APPLICATE, PREFACE, MIKLIP, MEDSCOPE, SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E).

Solicited talk:
Multi-year prediction of ENSO
By Jing-Jia Luo from the Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Science Information and Technology, China

Co-organized as BG1.43/HS11.66/NH1.30/NP5.9/OS1.30
Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-conveners: Louis-Philippe Caron, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, June-Yi Lee, Stéphane Vannitsem
| Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room F2
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall X5

Attendance time: Tuesday, 9 April 2019, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X5

Chairperson: Andrea Alessandri, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, June-Yi Lee
X5.58 |
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Matthew Widlansky, Shaoqing Zhang, and Magdalena Balmaseda
X5.59 |
The Challenge in Estimation, Simulation and Prediction of the Long-term Trend in Hydroclimate
June-Yi Lee
X5.61 |
Louis-Philippe Caron, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Lauriane Batté, Susanna Corti, Marta Dominguez, Silvio Gualdi, Jost von Hardenberg, Llorenç Lledó, Nicolau Manubens, Paola Marson, Stefano Materia, Eroteida Sánchez, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Verónica Torralba, Silvia Terzago, Deborah Verfaillie, and Danila Volpi
X5.62 |
| presentation
Franco Catalano, Andrea Alessandri, and Matteo De Felice
X5.63 |
Manish K. Joshi, Andrea Alessandri, Annalisa Cherchi, Alberto Troccoli, and Franco Catalano
X5.66 |
Decadal hydrological predictability over global major river basins
Xing Yuan and Enda Zhu
X5.67 |
Hendrik Feldmann, Julia Moemken, Natalie Laube, Sascha Brand, and Joaquim Pinto
X5.68 |
| presentation
André Jüling, Anna von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
X5.70 |
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Leonard F. Borchert, Holger Pohlmann, Nele C. Neddermann, Johanna Baehr, and Wolfgang A. Müller
X5.71 |
Elvira Musico', Gloria Rea, and Marco Formenton
X5.72 |
Vimal Koul, Corinna Schrum, Marius Årthun, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr
X5.73 |
Alexander Pasternack, Henning W. Rust, Jonas Bhend, Jens Grieger, Mark A. Liniger, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich
X5.74 |
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich