Nowcasting, forecasting, operational monitoring and post-event analysis of the space weather and space climate in the Sun-Earth system
Space weather and space climate are collective terms that describe the Sun-Earth system on timescales varying between minutes and decades and include processes at the Sun, in the heliosphere, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere and at the lower atmosphere. Being able to predict (forecast and nowcast) the extreme events and develop the strategy for mitigation are dramatically important because space assets and critical infrastructures in the EU, such as communication and navigation systems, power grids, and aviation, are all extremely sensitive to the external environment. Post-event analysis is crucially important for the development and maintenance of numerical models, which can predict extreme space weather events in order to avoid failure of the critical infrastructures.
This session aims to address both the current state of the art of space weather products and new ideas and developments that can enhance the understanding of space weather and space climate and its impact on critical infrastructure. We invite presentations on various space weather and space climate-related activities in the Sun-Earth system: forecast and nowcast products and services; satellite observations; model development, validation, and verification; data assimilation; development and production of geomagnetic and ionospheric indices. Talks on space weather effects on applications (e.g. on airlines, pipelines and power grids, space flights, auroral tourism, etc.) in the Earth’s environment are also welcomed.
Space Weather and its Effects on Terrestrial and Geo-Space Environments: Science and Application
The topic will cover the wide range of the aspects of solar-terrestrial physics that deal with the effects of space phenomena on different levels of geo-space. Effects range from those observed on spacecraft related activities all the way down to Earth to other solar system bodies and include technological systems, human health and life in space, as well as Earth`s climate.
We welcome theoretical, observational, as well as applied contributions(effects on terrestrial and geo-space environments) on all aspects of Space Weather.
Special emphasis will be put on new multi-diagnostics data base and services and on construction of relevant roadmap for future Space Weather products, application for Space geodetic techniques such as GNSS (ground-and satellite-based), DORIS, VLBI, satellite altimetry or the GPS radio occultation missions, as well as contributions related to the ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA).
This session aims at merging new and existing methods of observations and diagnostics of Solar System habitats and Space Weather services, as LOFAR radio diagnostics and new investigation and application for incoming ESA exploration mission like JUICE, SOLAR ORBITER.
Prediction of Solar Flares and Eruptions: Observations, Theory and Modeling
The session is intended as a discussion forum for reviewing and improving our current understanding of solar flare occurrence mechanisms and the prediction of flares and eruptions in both observational and modeling settings. In particular, this session will discuss, first, the apparent paradigm shift from simple flare and eruption prediction methods to interdisciplinary, multi-parameter investigations enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) and, second, the current and future synergies between academic and operational sectors in the framework of research to operations (R2O). Solar eruptions cause space weather phenomena that can affect space environment and sometimes impact our infrastructure, causing disruptions to our societal fabric. Prediction of solar flares and eruptions is essential to increase the lead time and the accuracy of space weather forecasts. Synergies are crucial for establishing operational prediction models and for effectively evaluating and validating these models. Such collaborative approaches are motivated by observational advances enabled by space missions (SDO, STEREO, SOHO, Hinode, RHESSI, GOES, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter in the near future, etc.), empirical human forecasting for decades, statistical methods, advances in machine- and deep-learning techniques, big-data handling, as well as realistic, data-driven numerical simulations. We solicit contributions on solar flare and eruption prediction, including operational human forecasting, statistical models, AI investigations and state-of-the-art forecast models enabled by numerical simulations, aiming toward future operations. Abstracts on data and performance verification, validation and benchmarking are also welcome.
Moreover, the long-term effect of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) of the UV and longer wavelength on the Earth climate system have been studied in detail, however the effect of particle precipitation on the Earth's atmosphere and climate has only recently received increasing attention. To cover these aspects, abstracts are welcome that discuss the impact of space weather events on the terrestrial atmosphere for different time scales.
Space is at the verge of a paradigm change. Earlier, mostly larger space agencies or international organizations were able to launch spacecraft. Today, the less expensive access to space increases the number of spacecraft, space-faring interest groups, and space-based research fields. The Science with CubeSats session emphasizes this new trend and highlights the possibilities and science objectives that can be achieved by small dedicated spacecraft, which can be built faster and in a more cost-efficient way than larger missions. These CubeSat missions can be either standalone or complementary to larger missions. The session solicits abstracts related to science onboard past, current or future CubeSats missions. We also solicit abstracts related to miniaturized instrument designs that can be accommodated on CubeSats as well as abstracts related to technologies and subsystems that enable science with CubeSats.
Cosmic rays across scales and disciplines: the new frontier in environmental research
'Cosmic rays’ collectively describe particles that bombard the Earth from space. They carry information about space and, once near the Earth, interact with the magnetosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Secondary cosmic rays created within the atmosphere can provide information about our planet that is vital to science and society. Secondary neutron radiation plays an extraordinary role, as it not only carries information about solar activity, but also produces short and long living tracer isotopes, influences genetic information of living organisms, and is extraordinarily sensitive to hydrogen and therefore also to water. Given the vast spectrum of interactions of cosmic rays with matter in different parts of the Earth, cosmic-ray research ranges from studies of the solar system to the history of the Earth, and from health and security issues to hydrology and climate change.
Although research on cosmic-ray particles is connected to a variety of disciplines and applications, they all share similar questions and problems regarding the physics of detection, modeling, and environmental factors that influence the intensity. Questions that all disciplines have in common are, for example, “How does the cosmic-ray intensity and energy spectra change with time and location on Earth?”, “How to correct the signal for magnetospheric or atmospheric fluctuations?”, “What is the influence of local structures, water bodies, and surface conditions?”, “Which computer model for cosmic-ray propagation is correct?”, or “What can we learn from other types of cosmic-ray particles?”.
The session brings together scientists from all fields of research that are related to monitoring and modeling of cosmogenic radiation. It will allow sharing of expertise amongst international researchers as well as showcase recent advancements in their field. The session aims to stimulate discussions about how individual disciplines can share their knowledge and benefit from each other.
We solicit contributions related but not limited to:
- Health, security, and radiation protection: cosmic-ray dosimetry on Earth and its dependence on environmental and atmospheric factors
- Planetary space science: satellite and ground-based neutron and gamma-ray sensors to detect water and soil chemistry
- Neutron monitor research: detection of high-energy cosmic rays variations and its dependence on local and atmospheric factors
- Hydrology and climate change: low-energy neutron sensing to measure water in reservoirs at and near the land surface, such as soils, snow pack and vegetation
- Cosmogenic nuclides: as tracers of atmospheric circulation and mixing; as a tool in archaeology or glaciology for dating of ice and measuring ablation rates; and as a tool for surface exposure dating and measuring rates of surficial geological processes
- Detector design: technological advancements for the detection of cosmic rays
- Cosmic-ray modeling: advances in modeling of the cosmic-ray propagation through the magnetosphere and atmosphere, and their response to the Earth’s surface
- Impact modeling: How can cosmic-ray monitoring support environmental models, weather and climate forecasting, irrigation management, and the assessment of natural hazards
Scientific networks and COST Actions in geosciences: breakthrough ideas, research activities and results
The nature of science has changed: it has become more interconnected, collaborative, multidisciplinary, and data intensive. Accordingly, the main aim of this session is to create a common space for interdisciplinary scientific discussion, where EGU-GA delegates involved in geoscientific networks can share ideas and present the research activities carried out in their networks. The session represents an invaluable opportunity for different networks and their members to identify possible synergies and establish new collaborations, find novel links between disciplines, and design innovative research approaches.
Part of the session will be focused on COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Actions*. The first edition of the session (successfully held in 2018) was actually entirely dedicated to the COST networking programme and hosted scientific contributions stemming from 25 Actions, covering different areas of the geosciences (sky, earth and subsurface monitoring, terrestrial life and ecosystems, earth's changing climate and natural hazards, sustainable management of resources and urban development, environmental contaminants, and big data management). Inspiring and fruitful discussions took place; the session was very well attended. We are looking forward to continuing the dialogue this year and to receiving new contributions from COST Action Members.
Another part of the session will be dedicated to the activities of other national and international scientific networks, associations, as well teams of scientists who are carrying out collaborative research projects.
Finally, the session is of course open to everyone! Accordingly, abstracts authored by scientists not involved in wide scientific networks are most welcome, too! In fact, in 2018 we received a good number of such abstracts, submitted by individual scientists or small research teams who wished to disseminate the results of their studies in front of the multidisciplinary audience that characterizes this session, as an alternative to making a presentation in a thematic session. This may be a productive way to broaden the perspective and find new partners for future interdisciplinary research ventures. We hope to receive this kind of abstracts this year, as well.
-- Notes --
* COST (www.cost.eu) is a EU-funded programme that enables researchers to set up their interdisciplinary research networks (the “Actions”), in Europe and beyond. COST provides funds for organising conferences, workshops, meetings, training schools, short scientific exchanges and other networking activities in a wide range of scientific topics. Academia, industry, public- and private-sector laboratories work together in Actions, sharing knowledge, leveraging diversity, and pulling resources. Every Action has a main objective, defined goals and clear deliverables. This session was started as a follow up initiative of COST Action TU1208 “Civil engineering applications of Ground Penetrating Radar” (2013-2017, www.GPRadar.eu).
Satellite observations for space weather and geo-hazards
The session aims to collect original or review contributions on the use of data from Low-Earth-Orbiting (LEO) satellites making measurements in the thermosphere-ionosphere to investigate ionospheric anomalies related to space weather, geophysical and artificial sources. In fact, data from LEO satellites can provide a global view of near-Earth space variability and are complementary to ground-based observations, which have limited global coverage. The AMPERE project and integration of the Swarm data into ESA’s Space Weather program are current examples of this. The availability of thermosphere and ionosphere data from the DEMETER satellite and the new operative CSES mission demonstrates that also satellites that have not been specifically designed for space weather studies can provide important contributions to this field. On the other hand, there are evidences that earthquakes can generate electromagnetic anomalies into the near Earth space. A multi-instrumental approach, by using ground observations (magnetometers, magnetotelluric stations, GNSS receivers, etc.) and LEO satellites (DEMETER, Swarm, CSES, etc.) measurements can help in clarifying the missing scientific knowledge of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) mechanisms before, during and after large earthquakes. We also solicit contributions on studies about other phenomena, such as tropospheric and anthropogenic electromagnetic emissions, that influence the near-Earth electromagnetic and plasma environment on all relevant topics including data processing, data-assimilation in models, space weather case studies, superimposed epoch analyses, etc.
Meet the Experts: The Future of Solar-Terrestrial Research
Over the last decades, research in the Solar Terrestrial sciences has greatly advanced our understanding of this huge system. For half a century, satellites and a continuously growing network of ground based observatories, have allowed us to get closer and make observations with higher precision than ever before. Together with more complex models, this gives us detailed knowledge on how the Sun affects its surrounding environment, and especially its coupling to Earth. As new space missions fill in today’s missing pieces of knowledge, new questions are born that need to be tackled by new thoughts. Being an Early Career Scientist, it is often hard to identify which questions are new and what has been answered before. In this short course we have invited a panel of renowned researchers. They will give their view on how far we have come in our understanding, and most importantly, on what challenges lie ahead for the young scientists to embark upon. This is an excellent opportunity to meet with the experts and discuss the future of our community. Target audience is students and early career scientists that want to increase their awareness of current and future research challenges within solar terrestrial sciences and to discuss their potential contributions. The audience is invited to propose specific topics and/or questions for discussion in advance to email@example.com.
In this short course we bring together established researchers and the Early Career Scientists in the Solar Terrestrial Sciences division for three visionary talks and a chance to discuss the future opportunities, challenges, and directions in our field, with the experienced experts. The invited speakers this year are Prof. Esa Turunen, Prof. Eric Priest and Prof. Margareth Kivelson, who will each give a talk about their view and visions about the future of our field.