Union-wide
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Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
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ITS – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions

Programme Group Chair: Viktor J. Bruckman

ITS4 – Risk, Resilience and Adaptation

ITS4.1/CL0.1.7 EDI

Recent assessments on the integrity of the Earth system and planetary health recognize the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system, with planetary-scale human impacts leading to increasing transgression of planetary boundaries constituting a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene (Richardson et al., Science Advances, 2023). Earth resilience, the capacity of the Earth system to resist, recover and regenerate from anthropogenic pressures, critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes and human-Earth system interactions. These include dynamics and interactions between the carbon cycle, the atmosphere, oceans, large-scale ecosystems, and the cryosphere, as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities. Studying Earth resilience requires a deeply integrated perspective on the human-Earth system in the Anthropocene and, hence, strong collaboration between diverse subdisciplines of Earth system science.

With rising anthropogenic pressures, there is an increasing risk of the human-Earth system hitting the ceiling of some of the self-regulating feedbacks of the Earth System, and of crossing tipping points in the large ice sheets, atmosphere-ocean circulation systems (e.g. the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and biomes such as the Amazon rainforest. Transgressing these critical thresholds in human pressures such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes could trigger large-scale and often abrupt and irreversible impacts on the biosphere and the livelihoods of millions of people. Potential domino effects or tipping cascades could arise due to the interactions between these tipping elements and lead to a further decline of Earth resilience. At the same time, there is growing evidence supporting the potential of positive (social) tipping points that could propel rapid decarbonization and transformative change towards global sustainability.

In this session, we invite contributions on all topics relating to Earth resilience, tipping points in the Earth system, planetary boundaries, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interactions and potential cascading domino effects. We are particularly interested in diverse methodological and quantitative approaches, from Earth system modelling to conceptual modelling and data analysis of nonlinearities, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

Convener: Jonathan Donges | Co-conveners: Ricarda Winkelmann, David Armstrong McKayECSECS, Marina Hirota, Lan Wang-ErlandssonECSECS, Simon Felix FahrländerECSECS, Johan Rockström
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:15 (CEST), 14:00–15:30 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 16:15
ITS4.3/NP1.2

Several subsystems of the Earth have been suggested to possibly react abruptly at critical levels of anthropogenic forcing. Examples of such potential Tipping Elements include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the polar ice sheets, tropical and boreal forests, as well as the tropical monsoon systems. Interactions between the different Tipping Elements may either have stabilizing or destabilizing effects on the other subsystems, potentially leading to cascades of abrupt transitions. The critical forcing levels at which abrupt transitions occur have recently been associated with Tipping Points.

It is paramount to determine the critical forcing levels (and the associated uncertainties) beyond which the systems in question will abruptly change their state, with potentially devastating climatic, ecological, and societal impacts. For this purpose, we need to substantially enhance our understanding of the dynamics of the Tipping Elements and their interactions, on the basis of paleoclimatic evidence, present-day observations, and models spanning the entire hierarchy of complexity. Moreover, to be able to mitigate - or prepare for - potential future transitions, early warning signals have to be identified and monitored in both observations and models.

This multidisciplinary session invites contributions that address Tipping Points in the Earth system from the different perspectives of all relevant disciplines, including

- the mathematical theory of abrupt transitions in (random) dynamical systems,
- paleoclimatic studies of past abrupt transitions,
- data-driven and process-based modelling of past and future transitions,
- methods to anticipate critical transitions from data
- the implications of abrupt transitions for climate sensitivity and response,
- ecological and socioeconomic impacts
- decision theory in the presence of uncertain Tipping Point estimates and uncertain impacts

Convener: Niklas Boers | Co-conveners: Ricarda Winkelmann, Anna von der Heydt, Timothy Lenton
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 10:45
ITS4.4/ERE6.4 EDI

Climate change, environmental hazards, and natural disasters present unprecedented challenges. Communities across the globe need tailored tools and solutions that improve their unique capacity to mitigate, respond, and rebuild from devastating events and maintain life with quality. Their success relies on the initiative, collaboration, and input from and with communities and experts across disciplines – including the technical and social sciences. These tools and solutions may be technology driven (e.g., low-cost sensor deployment to assess air and water quality) or policy driven (e.g., climate action plans) – they are by necessity iterative, interconnected, and evolving –, but ultimately reside in community priorities.
Facing escalating climate issues, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have emerged as a holistic approach addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation, steering towards a sustainable future. NbS resonate with global frameworks like the IPCC Climate Change and Land Report, the Paris Agreement, and the European Green Deal’s climate-neutral vision. These initiatives not only address environmental challenges but also enhance social and economic resilience. Integrating community-led science with NbS leads to innovative practices, merging local knowledge and scientific inquiry, and fostering sustainable community livelihoods.
This session aims to showcase how community-led science efforts and NbS can catalyze transformative change and resilience against climate and environmental crises. This interdisciplinary forum will bring together community leaders, scientists, technology developers, and policy professionals and drive discussion on how to best i) identify regional and local environmental priorities, ii) inclusively equip communities with diverse socioeconomic backgrounds with science-based tools, iii) address the implementation of NbS and related tools in varied regional settings, and iv) assess NbS and integrated approaches’ role in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Convener: Zipan CaiECSECS | Co-conveners: D. Michelle BaileyECSECS, Natasha Udu-gama, Amanda Shores, Carla FerreiraECSECS, Haozhi PanECSECS, Zahra Kalantari
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Mon, 10:45
Mon, 16:15
ITS4.5/GM1.3

Nature based solution(NbS) and eco-engineering have become key concepts in ecosystem restoration and natural hazard protection. Both concepts often build on fundamental biogeomorphic knowledge of two-way abiotic-biotic environmental interactions and feedbacks, which shape landscapes at various spatiotemporal scales. Thus, nature based solutions and eco-engineering can only work through integrating concepts from ecology, (evolutionary) biology, hydraulics, engineering, geomorphology, geology and quaternary science (amongst other disciplines).

This session combines fundamental biogeomorphic studies with applied studies on nature based solutions and eco-engineering. In the biogeomorphic studies, there is a focus on studies coming from a soil, hydrological and geomorphic perspective, which includes biogeomorphic processes, rates and feedbacks, organism-habitat interaction, biota as ecosystem engineers, biogeomorphology as a driver of nutrient and pollutant transport, and biogeomorphology as a tool to sustainably manage natural systems and hazards.

The NbS studies provide examples covering a large range of cases and possibilities, ranging from, but not limited to, sponge cities and green construction material to carbon accounting and biochar. One focus lies ‘ecosystem services’, another on ‘ecological engineering’, the latter being an established discipline that focuses on the design that exploits ecological elements and ecosystems for the benefit of both humans and nature. In a new, holistic approach to problem-solving, it focuses on the adoption of systems thinking and of circularity in problem-solving methodology towards re-establishing material cycles to deal with resource scarcity and expanding the nature-based toolbox using ecosystem services and renewable resources. This session discusses and analyzes these key concepts, benefits, and applications of modern ecological engineering.

Overall, this session includes innovative methods such as artificial intelligence, field and laboratory tests, remote sensing, numerical modelling etc. The NbS approach has proven its usefulness for addressing complex challenges while promoting the conservation and restoration of natural systems and cycles. As the global community strives to find holistic solutions to pressing ecological and societal issues, NbS has the potential to provide valuable pathways to re-balance the relationship between human activities and the environment.

Public information:

Sponsered by: IEES: https://iees.ch/

Convener: Annegret LarsenECSECS | Co-conveners: Jana Eichel, David C. Finger, Paulina GrigusovaECSECS, Ranka Junge, Wietse van de Lageweg, Alexandros Stefanakis
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X3
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X3
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
ITS4.6/SSS0.1.5 EDI

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are actions to protect, conserve, restore, sustainably use and manage natural or modified ecosystems, that address socio-economic and environmental challenges, while simultaneously providing human well-being, resilience and biodiversity benefits (UNEA, 2022). Within the framework of a global ecosystem approach, NbS must encompass ecological, societal, political, economic and cultural issues at all levels, from the individual to the collective, from local to national, from the public or private sphere.

As recently highlighted by IPCC and IPBES, climate change and biodiversity degradation cannot be separated, and must be considered together. For this reason, this session is especially focused on the way NbS can act as climate change adaptation solutions. Considering various ecosystems (marine and coastal, urban, cropland, mountainous, forest, rivers and lakes,.,), NbS as interventions for climate adaptation includes the adaptation to: sea level rise (flooding and erosion), changes of the water regime (floods, droughts, water quality and availability), rise in temperatures (heat waves, forest fires, drought, energy consumption), plant stress and increase of pests (variation of yields, forest dieback), to minimize their associated social and economic negative impacts.

Therefore, this session aims to promote interdisciplinary research related to ecosystem restoration, preservation and management, to put forward the complexity that is often hidden by simplifying hypotheses and approaches (sector-based silo approach, homogeneity of environments, ...).

Specific topics of interest are the followings:
- Complexity: nature of ecosystems and the risk of oversimplification, interconnection between NbS and complementary areas, consideration of uncertainties (future climate and associated impacts...)
- Scales: spatial scales with the integration of NbS in their environment, and temporal scales considering sustainability over time, variability of bio-physical processes and climate change effects
- Ecosystem services: understanding the bio-geophysical processes, spatial shift between the location of NbS and the location of beneficiaries, modification under climate change (threshold, inflection point), co-benefits or on the contrary degradation and negative effects
- Assessment and indicators: measurement and modelling protocols to evaluate NbS performances, capacity to measure the complexity, resilience and stability of the solutions.

Convener: Pierre-Antoine VersiniECSECS | Co-conveners: Natalia Rodriguez-Ramirez, Daniela Rizzi, Amy Oen
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 2.24
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X2
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X2
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
ITS4.8/CL0.1.16 EDI

Climate change and environmental degradation constitute a growing threat to the stability of societal and economical systems. The observed increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events combined with the projected long-term shifts in climate patterns and consequential impacts on biodiversity, have the potential to significantly affect the global economy. Consequently, the financial and insurance sectors could face substantial risks from these climate events unless effectively managed. This requires an accurate estimate of future climate risks, while understanding their complex and non-linear characteristics, and translating these impacts to a scale that is relevant and meaningful for society.

In recognition of this challenge climate risk assessments have experienced amplified attention in both the academic and private spheres, leading to initiatives such as the ‘Network for Greening the Financial Sector’ (NGFS) and the ‘Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure’ (TCFD). These initiatives aim at providing comprehensive climate impact information for the private sector and financial institutions which providing actionable information for understanding and managing climate risk.

Nevertheless, criticisms have emerged regarding the models' inadequacies in representing extreme events, the intricate nature of climate extremes characterized by their compounding and cascading effects, and the oversight of non-linearities associated with tipping elements in the climate system. These shortcomings suggest that current risk assessments may be overly conservative, missing the most impactful events.

Therefore, providing a platform to foster interactions between scientists, economists and financial experts is urgently needed. With the goal of facilitating such dialogue, this session aims at providing a platform for actors from academia and the private sector to exchange information on strategies for assessing climate risk. In particular, we are interested in submissions that focus on:

-Innovative climate risk modeling for
-Chronic and Acute Climate Risks
-Compound Events and Cascading Impacts
-Model Evaluation of Extreme weather events
-Bias adjustment Methods
-Downscaling Methods
-Construction of novel Climate Hazard Indicators and their projections for specific sectors (Food, Energy, Real Estate,...)
-Supply chains
-Impact Data Collection and Empirical Assessments
-Construction Derivation Damage functions
-Climate – Nature nexus

Convener: Kai KornhuberECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrej Ceglar, Nicola Ranger, Alessio CiulloECSECS, Maximilian KotzECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 2.17
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 16:15
ITS4.10/NH13.1 EDI

Extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters and emergent risks are becoming increasingly critical in the context of global environmental change and interact with other stressors. They are a potential major threat to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and are one of the most pressing challenges for future human well-being.
This session explores the linkages between extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters, societal dynamics and resilience. Emphasis is laid on 1) Which impacts on ecosystems and societies are caused by extreme events (including risks emerging from compound events)? 2) Which feedbacks and cascades exist across ecosystems, infrastructures and societies? 3) Where do these societal and environmental dynamics threaten to cross critical thresholds and tipping points? 4) Can we learn from past experiences? 5) What are key obstacles towards societal resilience and reaching the SDGs and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) targets, while facing climate extremes and compound events?
We welcome empirical, theoretical and modelling studies from local to global scale from the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, humanities and related disciplines.

Convener: Markus Reichstein | Co-conveners: Dorothea Frank, Taís Maria Nunes CarvalhoECSECS, Wantong LiECSECS, Thorsten Wagener, Alessia MatanoECSECS, Gregory Duveiller
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
ITS4.18/CL0.1.12 EDI | PICO

Water and climate-related risks, including changing rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and fires, pose significant challenges to various sectors of society. In order to mitigate these risks and support adaptive planning and management, the development and provision of hydroclimatic information services play a crucial role. Water and climate information services (WCISs) have potential to reduce the impacts of water and climate-related risks by providing timely and accurate information in advance. As a result, substantial resources and research efforts have been dedicated to the development of global and regional WCISs. These services encompass a wide range of initiatives, from the establishment of natural hazard early warning systems (EWSs) to the creation of platforms and dashboards that support decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and transportation.
The session aims to provide a platform for showcasing the current developments in WCIS for adaptation planning and management. The session will cover various topics with diverse applications, including the development of natural hazard EWSs, the creation of tools and dashboards for forecasting extreme weather events, and the facilitation of WCIS for sector-specific decision-making processes. Contributions related to co-designing of WCIS, the involvement of stakeholders in the development of WCIS, and innovative applications of WCIS for adaptation planning and management are also encouraged. This session will facilitate the exchange of knowledge and expertise among scientists, practitioners, and users of WCISs.

Public information:

This session consists of diverse climate information services (CIS) that have been developed worldwide. The themes include training and co-develop CIS and developing CIS for agriculture, water resources, and extreme events. 

Convener: Samuel Jonson Sutanto | Co-conveners: Biljana Basarin, Spyros PaparrizosECSECS, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Moriom Akter MousumiECSECS
PICO
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 1
Thu, 16:15