Dating the lifespan of slow-moving landslides poses a major challenge, typically limited to the most recent slope evolution within maximally 10³ to 10⁴ years. The Patagonian tableland, characterized by plateau basalts overlying weak sedimentary and volcaniclastic rocks, ranks among Earth's largest landslide provinces. Certain contiguous landslide areas, shaped mainly by rotational slides and spreads, exceed 1000 km², affecting hundreds of kilometers of mesa escarpments. Our new landslide mapping in eastern Patagonia has allowed us to establish an unprecedentedly long history of landslide evolution, utilizing cross-cutting relationships with dated chronological markers such as glacial moraines and trimlines, lacustrine and marine paleoshorelines, and lava flows. Our findings indicate that the escarpments of the Patagonian plateaus primarily evolved in a retrogressive mode. Both mesas within (or nearby) and outside Pleistocene ice limits involve landslides with topographic footprints that have persisted for over 1 Ma; the oldest documented landslide rim is overlain by a lava flow with a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age exceeding 5 Ma. Even in the most arid parts of the Patagonian tableland, repeated landslide reactivations occurred in the Quaternary, including the Late Holocene. In the western glaciated area, this is likely due to glaciation/deglaciation pulses, while in the eastern extraglacial part, it is probably associated with wetter periods linked to the strengthening of the eastern Atlantic circulation. We conclude that the Patagonian tableland boasts the longest documented landslide topographic footprints on Earth. Future research should prioritize high-resolution (direct radiometric) dating of landslide (re)activations and their correlation with paleoenvironmental changes.

How to cite: Pánek, T., Kilnar, J., Břežný, M., and Winocur, D.: Millions of years of landslides in the Patagonian tableland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3812, 2024.

Glacier mass loss due to anthropogenic climate change has far-reaching implications, one of which is the destabilization of paraglacial slopes. The buttressing force, or the support provided by the glacier to adjacent valley walls, changes and eventually decreases to zero as glaciers dwindle. However, the processes governing this (de-)buttressing, the amount of support glaciers can provide, and to what extent glacier retreat is responsible for landslide (re-)mobilization are still poorly understood. Paraglacial landslides can be hazardous, especially in the proximity of deep water, where a catastrophic failure has the potential to produce a tsunami.

We investigated eight large (roughly 20 to 500 million m³) paraglacial landslides in southern Alaska, a region which is experiencing some of the fastest glacier retreat worldwide. The selected landslides have varying degrees of ice contact: some are still experiencing active glacier retreat and thinning, others have already lost contact with the glacier. One of the selected landslides has undergone catastrophic failure, the others have not. We reconstructed the deformation history of the eight sites using Landsat images from the 1980s to present and automated and manual feature tracking. The slope evolution was then compared to ice thinning rates, ice velocity changes, the proximity of the landslide to the glacier terminus, environmental conditions, and seismic energy. 

We found that both thinning and retreat are sufficient conditions for landslide (re-)activation. In two cases we documented periods of acceleration for slopes where ice is still present at the landslide toe but thinning rapidly. In two further cases, substantial thinning did not correspond to any detectable motion. In four cases we observed a rapid retreat of the glacier terminus as the glacier retreated progressively up-fjord which led to the sudden onset of slope motion. This acceleration suggests decreased stability, which may be important in close proximity to water-filled basins, where rapid retreat due to calving is common and catastrophic landslides can cause tsunamis if they impact the water. The association of reduced glacier-slope contact, especially at rapidly retreating termini, with accelerated slope deformation suggests that buttressing is indeed an important stabilizer for paraglacial slopes. Furthermore, the off-and-on nature of deformation suggests there are critical thresholds for buttressing that, when crossed, leave slopes prone to rapid change.

How to cite: Walden, J., Jacquemart, M., Higman, B., Hugonnet, R., Manconi, A., and Farinotti, D.: The mountains are falling and I must go: paraglacial landslide response to glacier debuttressing in southern Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3808, 2024.

The onset and development of large rock slope failures in alpine environments are influenced by a combination of multiple factors, including lithology, inherited structural features on different scales, and the morpho-climatic history of the region. In the Southern Swiss Alps, seven large rock slope failure accumulations can be recognized along the five valleys north of Bellinzona, (Riviera, Leventina and Blenio in Canton Ticino, Calanca and Mesolcina in Canton Graubünden).  
The region exposes a predominance of crystalline rocks as orthogneiss and paragneiss with similar mechanical characteristics, an aspect that limits the lithological control on the rock slope failures. In addition, the availability of detailed geochronological documentation of both glacial retreat following the Last Glacial Maximum LGM and the major slope collapses motivated the search for a potential correlation, which, however, has not been found (De Pedrini et al. 2023). 
For this reason, slope failures in this region are potentially controlled by the peculiar structural setting. 
In this work, we aim at investigating the impact of structural geology on style of activity and timing of the rock avalanches and deep rockslides of the region. We rely on a catalog of the instabilities (Ambrosi and Czerski, 2016 and De Pedrini et al. 2023) and lineament mapping based on the visual interpretation on 0.5 to 2 m resolution hillshade (swissALTI3D multidirectional Hillshade, Federal Office of Topography swisstopo) and stereo-photogrammetry of aerial strips (Image strips swisstopo, Federal Office of Topography swisstopo). The manual tracing of lineaments is compared with an automatic lineaments tracing performed on surface models of Switzerland in the form of a classified point cloud (swissSURFACE3D, Federal Office of Topography swisstopo). Knowledge on structural lineaments and site-specific field surveys allow us to identify the proper structural setting for each large rock slope failure (already collapsed, active or dormant), and to study structural patterns that may promote slope response after deglaciation at regional scale.
The results of this analysis, aimed at the definition of the influence of glacial retreat plus the influence of structural geology, could provide an additional instrument to the comprehension of the paraglacial slope response in crystalline rocks and could thus represent an added value for long-term hazard assessment.

How to cite: De Pedrini, A., Manconi, A., Ambrosi, C., Agliardi, F., and Zangerl, C.: Influence of structural geology on rock slope failure in a paraglacial environment: insights from the Southern Swiss Alps, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5228, 2024.

Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a mountain range thoroughly studied from a geological-geomorphological perspective due to its anomalously high local relief and the ongoing debate about its origin and geological structure. From the standpoint of slope dynamics, several studies have carried out, but it was not until last year that deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSDs) were described in this mountain range. Their recognition was facilitated by synergizing geomorphological assessments with data from two well-established techniques: Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) and Landscape Analysis using the normalized channel steepness index (k_sn), a geomorphic index commonly used to outline landscape perturbations in tectonically-active mountain ranges. Systematic evaluation of k_sn anomalies along rivers illuminated key DSGSD sectors that were studied in detail. This approach resulted in a novel inventory of 17 DSGSDs in the southwestern sector of the range, providing an initial figure of the widespread occurrence of large DSGSDs in Sierra Nevada.

In a second phase, we conducted a detailed study of two slopes affected by DSGSDs in the Poqueira catchment, which provided new insights into Sierra Nevada’s DSGSDs. There, we characterized slope deformations by detailed morpho-structural mapping supported by fieldwork and interpretation of optical and LiDAR-derived imagery, resulting in morpho-structural maps and interpretative cross-sections. Collected data allowed setting up a series of 2DFEM multistage elasto-plastic models, parametrized by laboratory data and field rock mass assessment and validated with field evidence and DInSAR data. The studied cases are characterized by multiple nested landslides that become increasingly shallow, deformed, and active towards the valley. The geometry and kinematics of DSGSDs seem to be partially influenced by the orientation of foliation, indicating rock mass anisotropy, with dip slopes mainly exhibiting translational movements and anti-dip slopes demonstrating prevalence of rotational motions. We tested our initial hypothesis that these slope instabilities in the region were initiated because the development of fluvial incision, favored by the active tectonics and uplifting of the range. Preliminary findings of our analyses suggest that fluvial incision was a key trigger of DSGSDs in Sierra Nevada, but not the only one. Model simulations emphasize that, in addition to fluvial incision, rock mass anisotropy and long-term seismic activity played a crucial role in the onset and accumulation of large deformations of high slopes across the region, favoring the occurrence of significant mass movements. Considering this, rough estimates regarding the timing of incision and seismic activity suggest that initial DSGSD onset took place over a timescale of 10⁴-10⁵ years.

How to cite: Galve, J. P., Reyes-Carmona, C., Agliardi, F., Cannarozzi, M., Pérez-Peña, J. V., Moreno-Sánchez, M., Alfonso-Jorde, D., Ballesteros, D., Torre, D., Azañón, J. M., and Mateos, R. M.: Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations in Sierra Nevada, Spain: insights from InSAR, geomorphic and stability analyses, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10312, 2024.

A fixed point in geodesy is a stable survey point that fulfils the following two conditions: The point is known in coordinates from a previous survey (by position and/or height) and the point is permanently marketed (stabilised) in nature. Fixed points serve as reference points for surveys of all kinds. To determine the coordinates of the fixed points in the modern European reference system ETRS89, not only all previously measured GNSS vectors are used, but also all terrestrial observations measured since 1906, i.e. direction, elevation angle and distance measurements (Otter et al., 2017). More than 20.000 individual RTK measurements on these fixed points by using APOS (Austrian Positioning Service) complete the measurement dataset. Approximately 60.000 triangulation points (TPs) form a three-dimensional point network throughout Austria, whereas about 70 % of all TPs have multiple measurements. Fixed points should be stable, but this is not always the case, as fixed points are often influenced in their spatial position by gravitational mass movements, among other factors.

We have interpreted the entire elevation model/hill shade of Austria (1-metre resolution, based on ALS-data) and mapped all DSGSDs that manifest themselves geomorphologically in the terrain. This data set was intersected with the fixed points in order to identify those points that lie within a DSGSD. By analysing the results of the individual fixed point survey epochs, conclusions can be drawn about deformation rates of mass movements after excluding possible sources of error and statements can be made retrospectively up to the year in which the particular point was created (Otter et al., 2017).

Overall the fixed point measurements of the Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying Austria (BEV) represent a high quality and long term dataset that stands for its own and can support other slope monitoring methods. The interpretation of the dataset concerning slope deformations is not trivial but can deliver information of the range of movements over decades with uncertainties of 0 to 1.5 cm.

By combining different data sources (InSAR, ALS, in-situ measurements, fixed points, ...) we can present a preliminary, comprehensive data set on the activity status and often associated deformation rates of DSGSDs in Austria.

References:

Otter, J.; Imrek, E.; Melzner, S. (2017) Geodätische Grundlagenvermessung als Werkzeug in der Naturgefahrenanalyse in: Wimmer-Frey, I.; Römer, A.; Janda, C. [Hrsg.] Angewandte Geowissenschaften an der GBA. Wien, S. 147–152.

How to cite: Ostermann, M. and Blauensteiner, F.: Analysing geodetic fixed point survey time series to evaluate the long-term activity of DSGSDs in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5578, 2024.

We investigated the geological structure and the development of DGSD in the south side of the Bedretto Valley, Swiss Alps by field survey, topographic analysis, trenching, and 14C dating.

The Bedretto valley has major slope breaks approximately 300 m above the current valley bottom, which separate the area into two domains. Above the slope breaks, and in the catchments of the tributaries of the Bedretto valley, large flexural toppling occurs with counterscarps and troughs on two ridges between tributaries. Their hinges expose on the side of each ridge to suggest that the flexural toppling reaches to the depth of 200 m. The two large flexural toppling accompanied settling down of a wedge-shaped ridge top, which is bounded by two face-to-face normal faults. Below the slope breaks and on the side slopes of Bedretto valley, smaller but sharper counterscarps and terraces, which are of the incipient stage of counterscarps, develop. These counterscarps and troughs appeared by the preferential shearing along tectonic faults, which are pervasive in the area with a ~30 m average spacing. They are nearly parallel to the steeply-dipping schistosity; the faults may originate as lateral faults but reactivated as normal gravitational faults.

Deformation of the trenched sediments suggests that the flexural toppling occurred intermittently along a fault during three events, in which the first event had the largest dip slip of 30 m, much larger than the displacements of the subsequent events.

The third event at least was probably induced by an earthquake shaking, which is strongly suggested by the injection of fault gouge into the overlying sediments in the trough. Such injection should have been caused by pore pressure build up during earthquake shaking.

How to cite: Chigira, M., Kojima, S., Pedrazzini, A., Li, F., and Jaboyedoff, M.: Development of counterscarps by flexural toppling of schist in the Bedretto valley, Swiss Alps, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4203, 2024.

Glacier break-off events constitute a severe hazard in Alpine regions and their effects are expected to increase soon because of climate changes. Within this rapidly changing scenario, the development and implementation of new monitoring solutions and warning systems, able to detect collapses and possibly estimate the volumes, is of critical importance.

In this paper we present the analysis of avalanching activity from Planpincieux glacier (Aosta valley) through infrasound data collected by a small aperture (~ 150 m) array deployed at short distance (~ 2000 m) from the hanging front. The analysis is performed over five time periods between August 2020 and December 2022 summing up into 360 days. From a data set of confirmed events, infrasound wave parameters (intensity, peak amplitude, frequency and duration) are compared with collapse volumes estimated from photogrammetry and experimental relations are defined.

Morerover, characteristics of infrasound signals of confirmed events are used to extract signals that are likely produced by collapses from the whole dataset of infrasound detections and a volumetric flux of collapses from the front of the Planpincieux glacier is derived through time.

How to cite: Marchetti, E., Troilo, F., Perret, P., Belli, G., Gheri, D., and Sanchez, C.: Infrasound analysis of break-off events  from Planpincieux glacier, Mount Blanc, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6335, 2024.

Rock avalanches events pose significant concerns in mountainous regions characterised by deep and narrow valleys. This has not deterred the ongoing development in these areas, where population settlements and infrastructure continue to expand, becoming increasingly susceptible to these risks. Cima del Simano instability in the Swiss Alps, located in the narrow Blenio Valley, is a deep-seated rockslide which could trigger such events in the future. A previous work outlined several scenarios for the rockslide failure defined by a specific area, volume (ranging from 2.30x105 m3 to 4.30x106 m3), and susceptibility to happen.

Given the proximity of a major road and several villages on both sides of the Valley, there is a real need to evaluate the potential runout distance in the event of rupture and propagation of the different failure scenarios. 

Literature often presents two distinct approaches for estimating the runout distance and the impacted area, both based on the retrospective analysis of historical landslide occurrence. The first approach is through empirical equations linking volumes of failure V and Fahrböschung angles f (tanf=aV^(-b), with a and b two empirical parameters to determine). The second approach consists in numerically simulating the flow propagation by means of dedicated software and by applying specific rheological models. 

This present work suggests applying both those techniques to evaluate the area that would be affected in the case of a rock avalanche at Cima del Simano, triggered by one of the suggested scenarios. We evaluated the runout distance for different angles f estimated based on the empirical relationship, and Dan3D for simulating the propagation applying the Voellmy rheology. Four simulations were conducted by varying the friction coefficient μ [-] and the parameter of turbulence ξ [m.s-2] in order to assess the minimal and maximal possible propagation in terms of runout distance L and lateral spreading based on domain of validity of those parameters according to literature. 

The distances L obtained empirically are longer than the ones from the simulations. This can be explained by the frontal confinement of the flow slowing down the propagation. The study is completed by an evaluation for each scenario of the probability of exceeding a certain distance L using existing statistical models for f variations. 

Additionally, the numerical simulations highlight the areas in gullies where debris are deposited during the flow propagation. Those areas can be sources for subsequent debris flow events. In a second step, we conducted an analysis of areas susceptible to debris flow with Flow-R and compared them with former debris flow events for validation. 

This study aligns with risk management to assist in making informed decisions regarding the evacuation plan in the event of a rupture and propagation of an important volume at Cima del Simano. 

How to cite: Wolff, C., Jaboyedoff, M., Pedrazzini, A., and Derron, M.-H.: Rock avalanche runout prediction for suggested failure scenarios. Case study of Cima del Simano rockslide (Switzerland), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17946, 2024.

Yosemite National Park attracts millions of visitors each year with its stunning landscape, characterized by 1000 m high granite cliffs that are highly susceptible to rockfalls. Between 2010 and 2020, more than 300 rockfalls affected the 12 km long El Portal Road, used by 30% of visitors to enter the park, causing road closures and fatalities. Since National Park policies limit engineering mitigation on natural slopes, risks along roads are managed through traffic practices based on local hazard evaluation.

In this perspective we developed a probabilistic risk analysis workflow, aimed at estimating the annual probability of loss of life for people driving a vehicle along the road. The analysis was carried out for every 10-m-long segment of each travel lane, to and from Yosemite Valley. We based our analyses on 3D rockfall runout simulations performed with the Hy-STONE simulator, and on rockfall event (1857-2022) and vehicle traffic data collected by the U.S. National Park Service. Runout simulations were performed over 18 km² with a spatial accuracy of 1 m. Simulation parameters were calibrated by back-analysis of past events and validated with field evidence. Fifteen million trajectories were simulated for five volume scenarios (0.01-100 m³), providing local information of transit frequency and kinetic energy.

A probabilistic hazard analysis was developed using the probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis (PRHA) method (Lari et al, 2014), which calculates the kinetic energy that can be exceeded in N years for each road segment. The method integrates different rockfall volume scenarios, with specific return times, in a probabilistic framework accounting for modelling uncertainties. For each considered scenario, the annual rockfall onset frequency was derived by a magnitude-frequency (MF) curve, based on the Yosemite event data from 2010-2020 and combined with a field-based talus MF curve, to redistribute frequency among blocks disaggregated during runout. The annual rockfall frequency at each slope segment was then calculated by combining the onset frequency with the transit frequency provided by runout simulations. The exposure analysis, dependent on block size, vehicle size and speed, considered the probability of a vehicle being in the path of a falling block when it reaches each road segment. Since blocks coming from different sources may converge to a common location based on the 3D topography, we reconstructed the distribution of kinetic energy at each target road segment.

The probability of exceeding specific energy values, combined with the annual frequency of rockfall occurrence, allowed deriving probabilistic hazard curves for each scenario and for the ensemble. Based on expected kinetic energy and considering the number of visitors passing along the road every day as well as assumptions on the vulnerability of vehicles, we calculated the possible annual number of casualties for each road segment and the entire road, to identify the road sectors with the highest risk. Computed risk varies in time with clear weekly and seasonal patterns depending on the number of daily visitors and the weather conditions. Our study will provide park managers with tools to make adaptive decisions for managing risk in dynamically changing conditions.

How to cite: Agliardi, F., Frattini, P., Stock, G. M., Tosi, T., Lanfranconi, C., and Collins, B. D.: Probabilistic rockfall hazard and risk analysis along the El Portal Road in Yosemite National Park (California, USA), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9085, 2024.

The E45 motorway in South Tyrol (Italy) is exposed to rockfalls in many locations. For this reason, a significant number of rockfall risk reduction measures (nets, barriers, etc) has been progressively installed since its construction. Planning of further mitigation and monitoring measures can benefit from the assessment over a large-area and at adequate scale, of the exposure to rockfalls and of the associated risk, a piece of knowledge that this study has provided for a 13.5 km motorway section.

First, susceptibility mapping has been carried out using bivariate statistical methods with supporting evidences from an inventory of rockfalls occurrences covering the period 1993 to 2020. This has allowed to define potential rockfall detachment zones located upslope the E45. For each zone, rockfall runout modelling with RocPro3D software by considering 0.5 m and 2.0 m blocks diameter and high-resolution Lidar DTM has allowed to assess potential interactions between rockfall and different motorway structures (i.e. viaduct piers, tunnel entrances and road embankments). Spatial-temporal frequency of 2 m diameter rockfall (i.e. n° of rockfalls per year and unit area) has been assessed on the basis of the inventory of rockfalls occurrences and of the overall extent of slopes resulting highly susceptible to rockfalls. On such basis, the expected rockfall triggering frequency (n° events/year) in each source area has been assessed by considering its extension.  Hazard has been assessed by using an heuristic matrix-based approach that combines frequency and geomechanics (expressed by the GSI) of the rock masses. Rockfall spatial impact frequency, energy and bounce height determined by runout models have been used to establish exposure and vulnerability (i.e. expected damage level) of the motorway infrastructures. Finally, risk has been evaluated in function of hazard and vulnerability (by using combination matrices tailored to each type of interaction of rockfall – on infrastructures taken into consideration.

Results allowed us to determine and map that, out of the total 13.5 km motorway section considered, about 1.5 km for 0.5 m diameter blocks, and about 3.2 km considering 2.0 m diameter blocks, should be considered at high to very high rockfall risk. This result is also relevant with respect to the identification of priorities for more in-depth slope-scale surveys and monitoring of rockfalls in the perspective of further structural and non-structural mitigation measures implementation.

How to cite: Lelli, F., De Rosa, L., Simeoni, L., Ronchetti, F., Critelli, V., and Corsini, A.: Rockfalls risk assessment along a E45 motorway section in South Tyrol (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15711, 2024.

The material/rock failure is not a sudden progression but is preceded by multiple progressive nucleation phases during which relaxation or rearrangement of material leads to creep and accelerates with time before any major rupture. The monitoring of Himalayan surficial dynamics is challenging and expensive to access for scientific research purposes. The unfelt destructions produced by the surficial mass movement activities can only be recognized by satellite images if other monitoring is not possible. We focused on the Chamoli region, which is the most vulnerable or hazard-prone region in the NW Himalaya. Recently, on 7^th February 2021, a huge rock-ice mass detached from the Raunthi peak at a height of 5600 m in the Chamoli district of Uttarakhand Himalaya. We found several pre-collapse and unfelt activities,in a post-mortem study, which were recorded at nearby highly sensitive broad-band seismic stations and radon detector instruments. The integrated study of the recorded signatures allows us to reconstruct the complete dynamic time-dependent nucleation phases, which intensify as time gets closer to the main detachment. Continuous monitoring of vulnerable regions, coupled with the identification and characterization of precursory signals, holds the fundamental clue for hazard mitigation. After the Chamoli disaster, we are more focused on monitoring unfelt activities and anomalies linked to hazards in the proximity of potentially endangered zones and also planning to deploy multi-parametric instruments such as automatic weather stations (AWS), broad-band seismometers (BBS), automatic water level recorders (AWLR) and infrasound array for real-time monitoring and integrated analysis with a view to forewarn against the hazards in the Himalayan terrain. The dense network of sensors will allow us to collect high-quality data and crucial information as a way forward for disaster mitigation and societal benefit.

How to cite: Tiwari, A., Sain, K., and Kumar, A.: Integrated Monitoring and Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Himalayan Region: Insights from the Chamoli Disaster of 2021, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-703, 2024.

An approach for assessing the quantitative vulnerability, through empirical fragility and vulnerability curves, of masonry buildings exposed to slow-kinematic landslides is described. More in detail, the fragility curves express the probability of exceeding a given level of damage for a range of landslide intensity values. Starting from these ones, the vulnerability curve provides the mean level of damage severity to a given building (or aggregate of buildings) in relation to the landslide intensity value. The application of the vulnerability curve is exploited in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA), that quantifies the probability of a given level of loss.

The Department of Earth Sciences of the University of Florence has catalogued the severity damage landslide-induced to over four thousand masonry buildings gathered from in situ surveys in the northern Apennines. Moreover, to retrieve the fragility and, consequently, the vulnerability curves for buildings, the proposed method exploits the results of spaceborne Advanced Differential Interferometry SAR (A-DInSAR) analysis. In particular, such a method considers the landslide intensity value equal to the module of the vertical (up-down) and horizontal (east-west) deformation velocity obtained by properly combining ascending and descending Sentinel-1 DInSAR products, retrieved through the P-SBAS (Parallel-Small Baseline Subset) method developed at IREA-CNR.

This approach to assess the vulnerability has been integrated within the well-known QRA procedure, which is based on the application of the risk equation (R=H*V*E), where:

R is the landslide risk in terms of economic loss;

H is the hazard retrieved from the susceptibility map available for the entire Italian territory;

V is the vulnerability obtained directly from the equation of the vulnerability curve;

E is the exposure of buildings assessed from average real estate market parameters reported in the OMI (Osservatorio Mercato Immobliare).

The effectiveness of the proposed procedure has been tested over the municipality of Zeri (Massa-Carrara, Italy), where a large-scale landslide risk map has been produced. In particular, for each building of the study area, the hazard, the vulnerability, the exposure and the risk associated with it, are presented. The analysis estimates a total risk of 33.2 million euro for the Zeri municipality and the identification of specific buildings at highest risk. The provided result can be useful for the civil protection activities of the local administrator identifying areas with higher potentiality of damage on structures.

How to cite: Poggi, F., Caleca, F., Festa, D., Nardini, O., Barbadori, F., Del Soldato, M., De Luca, C., Casu, F., Lanari, R., Casagli, N., and Raspini, F.: Quantitative vulnerability assessment of buildings susceptible to slow-kinematic landslides, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16313, 2024.

Landslides, as a ubiquitous type of mass wasting phenomena, occur under various geological and environmental conditions and exhibit diverse failure patterns. Among various factors, weathering has been widely recognised as one of the primary drivers on landslide evolution over geological timescales. However, how weathering induces slope instabilities, including how pre-failure rock mass degradation contributes to the landslide failure development and post-failure deposition of mobilised geomaterials, has not been fully understood. In this study, we develop a novel, physics-based unified computational framework to capture weathering-induced landslide evolution over multiple time scales, from the long-term pre-failure rock mass deformation to the short-term slope rupture and post-failure runout dynamics. Weathering laws and failure criteria are coupled to capture the combined effects of time-dependent strength degradation and strain-driven damage processes, while a frictional velocity-weakening law is adopted to characterise the rapid movement of yielded masses. The non-linear governing equations of landslide dynamics are solved using an implicit particle finite element framework that can model all the landslide stages from the long-term material degradation to short-term failure and runout. We further investigate the effects of weathering conditions (type and rate), geological properties (fracture sets and rock matrix) and slope geometry (angle and shape) on the failure patterns. Our high-fidelity numerical simulations capture the emergence of diverse landslide failure patterns resulting from the complex interplay among rock lithology, fracture distribution, weathering process, and gravitational forcing. Our numerical results show that matrix-dominated weathering tends to produce shallow landslides, while fracture-dominated weathering promotes the occurrence of deep landslides. For fracture-dominated weathering, the orientation of pre-existing fractures and the slope ratio significantly control the failure mode (e.g. falling, toppling, sliding, etc.), which further affects post-failure runout behaviour. Our computational framework opens the door to investigating and understanding weathering-induced rock slope failure evolution across spatial and temporal scales.

How to cite: Wang, L., Loew, S., Gu, X., and Lei, Q.: Emergence of diverse failure patterns in weathering-induced landslides: Insights from high-fidelity particle finite element simulations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6969, 2024.

In the realm of natural Earth-surface processes, such as mass movements exemplified by rock avalanches, a substantial entrainment of bed material along their trajectory is a common occurrence, amplifying both volume and run-out distance. The heightened mobility of these rapid gravity flows has been frequently ascribed by numerous researchers to the complete or partial fluidization of path material induced by swift undrained loading. An intriguing question arises: are there additional entrainment mechanisms at play in this process? To address this query, we executed a series of flume experiments designed to replicate rock avalanches overriding a saturated bed material. Our experimental findings revealed that the overriding flow induced a state of fluidization in the bed material, rendering it viscous. Furthermore, we observed that the rapid loading by the overriding debris increased pore pressure at the base, although it did not reach the threshold of complete fluidization. Rheological analysis of the bed material unveiled significant shear-thinning behavior, with viscosity diminishing rapidly as shear strain rate increased. Consequently, we posit that the concurrent effects of excess pore pressure at the basal layer and shear-thinning rheology in the flowing mass contributed to the fluidization of bed material and the ensuing extended run-out distance. This discovery offers a plausible natural elucidation for the extraordinary mobility of rock avalanches and holds promise for refining the precision and reliability of numerical simulations through the integration of the viscous model derived from our experimental endeavors.

How to cite: Zheng, Y. and Hu, W.: Flume tests and rheological experiments provide insights into the fluidization of bed material induced by shear thinning during the entrainment of rock avalanches., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7405, 2024.

Voellmy's rheology was originally developed for snow avalanches in the 1950s. However, it has also been widely applied to rock avalanches and to debris flows. In its original form, Voellmy's rheology assumes that the effective friction is the sum of Coulomb friction and a velocity-dependent term. While the Coulomb friction term is necessary for letting avalanches stop after a finite time, it causes problems with regard to the long runout of huge rock avalanches. This long runout requires Coulomb friction coefficients much lower than typically assumed for granular media, which finally result in unrealistically smooth morphologies of the deposits. In this presentation, numerical simulations with a recently published modified version of Voellmy's rheology are shown and compared to the conventional version. The modified version assumes two distinct regimes of Coulomb friction and velocity-dependent friction with a transition at a critical velocity derived from the concept of random kinetic energy. The modified rheology explains the long runout of huge rock avalanches without assuming an artificially low Coulomb friction coefficient. Furthermore, it produces hummocky deposit morphologies even with isolated hills similar to toma hills.

How to cite: Hergarten, S.: A modified Voellmy rheology for modeling rock avalanches, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6726, 2024.

One of the main problems of risk assessment is to evaluate the uncertainty of the results. One relevant solution is to provide exceedance curves based on simulations of the risk calculation (Macciotta et al., 2016; Jaboyedoff et al. 2021), as can be done with CAT models. Instead of performing a single calculation, up to 10⁶ are performed with imputed viability based on different approaches such as observed distributions, standard probabilistic laws such as Poisson or uniform distribution, expert knowledge based on triangular distributions, etc. This can be done on the basis of a "deterministic calculation" of the risk, which allows a better assessment of the uncertainty of the risk.

Drawing upon a precedent risk calculation study within a road corridor, a novel risk calculation methodology is suggested, employing stochastic simulations to introduce variability across the parameters in the risk equation. The outcome manifests as an exceedance curve akin to those generated by catastrophe models. This approach systematically introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation, providing a simplistic means to address inadequately documented cases with limited data. This approach tends to minimise risk or call risk calculations into question.

References:

Jaboyedoff, M., Choanji, T., Derron, M.-H., Fei, L., Gutierrez, A., Loiotine, L., Noel, F., Sun, C., Wyser, E. & Wolff, C. 2021. Introducing Uncertainty in Risk Calculation along Roads Using a Simple Stochastic Approach. Geosciences, 11, doi: 10.3390/geosciences11030143.

Macciotta, R., Martin, C.D., Morgenstern, N.R. & Cruden, D.M. 2016. Quantitative risk assessment of slope hazards along a section of railway in the Canadian Cordillera—a methodology considering the uncertainty in the results. Landslides, 13, 115-127, doi: 10.1007/s10346-014-0551-4.

How to cite: Jaboyedoff, M.: Introducing uncertainty in hazard analysis in a simple way: example of rockfalls, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18131, 2024.

Rockfalls and rockslides are a common hazard in alpine terrain and are major factor of alpine landscape evolution. They are characterized by a complex combination of geological, hydrological, geomechanical and meteorolocical processes and occur in a wide variety of geological and structural settings and in response to various loading and triggering processes. In the Alps in particular, extremely rapid rock avalanches reaching a volume of several 10000 m³ or more have the potential to cause serious damage to both humans and infrastructure. As global warming progresses, the meteorological and climatological factors that influence rock avalanche formation will change. Especially, in the high mountain environment rock avalanches are strongly influenced by climate change due to thawing of permafrost and the retreat of glaciers. Less obvious is the influence of climate change on the formation of rock avalanches at lower altitudes, and thus there is a need for additional research.

In this study, we investigate the impact of global warming on selected rock avalanche case studies with volumes above several tens of thousands of cubic meters. The study area covers approx. 3400 km² in the metamorphic rock mass of the Ötztal Stubai Crystalline, the Silvretta and the Glockner Nappes as well as the units of the Engadin Window of the Tyrolian Alps, Austria.

The aim of this work is to identify the processes that led to our case studies and if these processes are influenced by climate change factors, such as changes in temperature, precipitation, freeze-thaw cycles, snow coverage, etc. The climatic factors will be investigated in terms of both their short-term and long-term influence on the trigger mechanisms.

Advanced remote sensing techniques were used on site to carry out small to large-scale investigations. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and Airborne laser scanning (ALS) enables us to create high-resolution recordings of inaccessible rock faces, supported by 3D point cloud analyzing tools. In addition, where TLS campaigns are not possible, we use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry system that provides 3D point clouds and delivers a 3D model of the site. Geological field investigations were performed to record lithological, hydrogeological and structural features. This results in a comprehensive geological model of the failure area. A 3D discontinuity network was developed based on the combined analyses of remote sensing and discontinuity mapping data, providing the basis for structural geological analyses and distinct element modelling studies.

With regard to the above criteria, we have selected several case studies. Most of the case studies are located well above 2500 m above sea level in glaciated or recently glaciated areas. For all case studies, we were able to document at least one rock avalanche event with a volume exceeding several 10000 m³. A high-resolution climate model was created for the documented events. We then began to collect and evaluate the existing literature on the individual case studies.

How to cite: Prandstätter, L., Zangerl, C., Fey, C., Klisho, T., and Formayer, H.: Climate change impact on rock avalanches in metamorphic rock masses in Tyrol, Austria, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8891, 2024.

On September 16th, 2023 at 12:35 UTC, a 25.5 M m3 rockslide occurred on the slope of Dickson Fjord in Northeast Greenland. The rockslide impacted a gully glacier, leading to a rock and ice avalanche that entered the fjord causing an up to 200 m high tsunami with observable runup up to 100 km away. The event produced an unprecedented very long period (VLP) seismic event observable on seismic stations worldwide for up to nine days. Here we focus on reconstructing the dynamics of the landslide, while detailed analysis of the VLP seismic signal is presented by Widmer-Schnidrig et al. in Session GM2.1.

Detailed analysis of the landslide reveals that a large body of metamorphic rock, with dimensions up to 150 m thick, 480 m wide, and 600 m long, dropped westwards along a foliation-parallel failure plane. The impact shattered a 200 m-wide outlet glacier, entraining 2.3 M m3 of glacier ice. The event was dynamically preconditioned by the progressive thinning of the glacier that supported the toe of the unstable slope. Subsequent investigations of satellite images and seismic records indicate that up to five minor landslides occurred in the years prior to the largest event in Sept. 2023, and one subsequent landslide has also been recorded.

Seismic signals generated by the landslide-tsunami were observed at nearby seismic stations, providing insights into its dynamics. The seismic signatures, including emergent high-frequency arrivals and low-frequency signals, match with characteristics of landslides involving glacial ice. Infrasound signals were also detected up to 3310 km away.

To reconstruct the landslide run-out, seismic waveforms from the closest stations were analyzed, resulting in a maximum force of 192×109 N, corresponding to a mass estimate of 78-103×109 kg, equating to a volume of ca. 29-38 M m3, consistent with results from photogrammetric reconstruction. The inverted run-out path indicates the initial rockslide impact with the gully wall, followed by entry into the water. The whole slide lasted c. 90 seconds. An independent numerical model to simulate the landslide force-history is in overall agreement with the seismic inversion results. Simulations of the landslide induced tsunami compare well with observations of the tsunami run-up, and also show evidence of longer lasting seiche action.

The landslide is the first glacial debuttressing landslide known from Greenland, and the first tsunamigenic landslide of this magnitude recorded in Northeast Greenland. 

How to cite: Svennevig, K., Hicks, S., Lecocq, T., Mangeney, A., Hibert, C., Korsgaard, N., Lucas, A., Keiding, M., Marboeuf, A., Schippkus, S., Rysgaard, S., Boone, W., Gibbons, S., Cook, K., Glimsdal, S., Løvholt, F., Spagnolo, M., Assink, J., Harcourt, W., and Malet, J.-P. and the VLPGreenland: Interdisciplinary insights into an exceptional giant tsunamigenic rockslide on September 16th 2023 in Northeast Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20066, 2024.