Advances in Numerical Earth System Modeling: Identifying Systematic Errors and Charting Innovative Approaches to Enhance Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction
Convener:
Werner Bauer
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Co-conveners:
Ariane Frassoni,
Jemma Shipton,
Nils Wedi,
Hiroe Yamazaki,
Tim Graham,
Fanglin Yang
Orals
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Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) Room M1
Posters on site
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Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 Hall X5
Despite significant progress, challenges persist in identifying and correcting errors within individual ESM components, exacerbated by complex inter-component interactions. Moreover, limitations in the observational network hinder the full constraint of ESMs. Efforts to assess, test, and enhance models have reduced major systematic errors, yet challenges persist while new ones have emerged. Ongoing research and development efforts focus on enhancing the accuracy, seeking a better representation of different processes in ESMs by identifying and correcting systematic errors, but also considering the efficiency, and scalability of ESM components, including the dynamical core, physics, and their coupling.
This session invites contributions related to the development, testing, and application of innovative techniques for ESMs, as well as contributions that provide a deep understanding of the nature and causes of systematic errors in ESMs. Topics encompass governing equations, horizontal and vertical discretizations, structure-preserving methods, time-stepping schemes (including parallel in time schemes), advection schemes, adaptive multi-scale models, model errors across space and time scales, hierarchies of models, physics-dynamics and physics-physics cross-component coupling, initialized predictions, climatology of weather prediction models, data assimilation methodologies, the use of ML to identify errors and detect causal connections, stochastic parameterization for uncertainty representation, and verification diagnostics and metrics for characterizing systematic errors and process understanding across various modeling communities (regional and global km-scale modeling).
14:00–14:05
5-minute convener introduction
14:05–14:15
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EGU24-12501
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ECS
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On-site presentation
14:15–14:25
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EGU24-8249
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ECS
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On-site presentation
14:25–14:35
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EGU24-10755
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ECS
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On-site presentation
14:45–14:55
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EGU24-11884
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On-site presentation
14:55–15:15
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EGU24-2044
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solicited
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On-site presentation
15:15–15:25
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EGU24-9880
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Understanding the South-West Indian Ocean Temperature Bias: Forcing Ocean-Only Models with Coupled Model Atmospheric Output to Identify Drivers of Ocean Biases
(withdrawn)
15:25–15:35
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EGU24-7246
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ECS
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On-site presentation
X5.91
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EGU24-3509
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ECS
X5.92
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EGU24-7742
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ECS
The identification of wetlands in Noah-MP and their regional environmental effects
(withdrawn)
X5.94
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EGU24-10860
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ECS
X5.99
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EGU24-10945
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ECS
Numerical implementation of ESMs: an additional source of uncertainty in climate prediction?
(withdrawn after no-show)