The main goals of the session is (i) to identify gaps in current climate prediction methods and (ii) to report and evaluate the latest progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal and longer timescales. This will include presentations and discussions of developments in the predictions for the different time horizons from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, exploration of artificial-intelligence methods, etc.
Following the new WCRP strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes between atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice components, as well as the impacts of coupling and feedbacks in physical, hydrological, chemical, biological, and human dimensions. Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects.
An increasingly important aspect for climate forecast's applications is the use of most appropriate downscaling methods, based on dynamical, statistical, artificial-intelligence approaches or their combination, that are needed to generate time series and fields with an appropriate spatial or temporal resolution. This is extensively considered in the session, which therefore brings together scientists from all geoscientific disciplines working on the prediction and application problems.
Posters virtual: Mon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 5
EGU25-18989 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS5
Enhancing Hydrological Processes in Earth System Models: Implementing Groundwater Dynamics for Improved Climate RepresentationsMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP5.2
EGU25-21341 | Posters virtual | VPS5
Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Indian Wind Energy Resources during Summer Monsoon SeasonMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP5.3
EGU25-3766 | Posters virtual | VPS5
Seasonal Predictability of Late-Spring Precipitation in the Southern Great PlainsMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP5.4
EGU25-7421 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS5
Integrating Climate Projections and Geospatial Analysis to Identify Rainwater Harvesting Suitability in Lombok Island, IndonesiaMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP5.5