The Flumendosa basin case study is characterized by a very attractive long-term (one-century) hydrological database, low urbanization, and its key role in the water resources of the Sardinian Island (the Flumendosa reservoir system has a total capacity of about 620 × 106 m3). It provides an interesting opportunity to analyze the response of water resource systems to historical and future climate change. The analysis of a long-term (1922 – 2022) hydrological database showed that the Flumendosa basin has been affected by climate change since the middle of the last century, associated with a decrease in winter precipitation and annual runoff (Mann-Kendall τ=-0.271), reduced by half in the last century, and an increase in the mean annual air temperature (Mann-Kendall τ=+0.373). The drier climate conditions of the last 40 years raise questions for the pre-existing regional water resource planning. The proposed distributed ecohydrological model effectively predicted one century of runoff data and becomes a powerful tool for water resource and environmental planning. We used the spatially distributed ecohydrological model and a water resources management model (WARGI) to define the economic efficiency and the optimal water allocation in the water system configurations throughout the evaluation of multiple planning and management rules for future climate scenarios. Using the IPCC future climate scenarios (up to the end of the century), the soil is predicted to become drier; the runoff will further decrease by about 18%, and up to 31% for 2076-2100 period. In these future hydrological conditions (2024-2100), irrigation demands will not be totally satisfied, with up to 74% of future years being in deficit for irrigation, with a mean deficit of up to 52% for irrigation a scenario C, the scenario with the maximum increase in irrigation in the future. Only a conservative scenario for irrigation, which will exclude the growth of irrigated areas, will be sustainable for the Sardinian water resources system under future climate change scenarios.
We demonstrated that the Flumendosa basin is hydrological sensitive to forest cover changes, as typical of water-limited basins. In this sense, extreme land cover change strategies, such as of deforestation, may help to increase water resources in future sce-narios but can clearly not be accepted because the deforestation will have a strong impact on the carbon assimilation amount in the basin, which will decrease by up to 37% at the end of the 2076-2100 period, as well as on other environmental factors (e.g., soil erosion control); this is not compatible with policies of climate change mitigation and resilience. Afforestation activities will bring a positive increase in carbon assimilation but a further reduction of runoff, slightly increasing the number of deficit years for irrigation.
These results, and the impact of climate change on water resources, need to be carefully considered in the Sardinian development plans. Although climate change is caused on a global scale, it impacts water resources and growth at a local scale, with consequences in an island, such as Sardinia, which has been a positive example of environmental and natural preservation.