The European landscape for climate risk assessment (CRA) is characterized by significant heterogeneity, reflecting diverse methodologies, datasets, and community practices across regions. This complexity highlights the need for harmonised yet adaptable frameworks capable of accommodating local and regional contexts, integrating diverse knowledge systems, and fostering cross-sectoral collaboration to promote climate-resilient development through interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches.
As part of the Horizon 2021 CLIMAAX project, a comprehensive survey was conducted to capture the state of regional CRA practices across Europe. The survey covered four different key dimensions: (i) guiding principles, (ii) technical approaches, (iii) participatory practices, and (iv) bottlenecks and best practices in CRA implementation. As of December 2024, responses were collected from 53 experts and practitioners spanning 23 European countries. The findings revealed that 31% of respondents incorporate both current and future climate scenarios into their CRA for various hazards, while 25% rely solely on current conditions. Among climate scenarios, RCP4.5 emerged as the most used for mid-century assessments (2050s), while RCP8.5 was favoured for end-of-century projections.
The survey also examined stakeholder engagement across different stages of CRA, including co-design, collaboration, consultation, and information-sharing. In this regard, research institutions emerged as the most frequently-engaged stakeholders, with nearly half of respondents reporting active collaboration. In contrast, citizens, local authorities, and vulnerable groups were less involved, particularly in the active phases of the co-creation, underscoring some challenges of integrating participatory processes at local levels.
Some of these key insights from the CLIMAAX CRA survey were used to inform the development of an open-source CRA framework and a toolbox. These resources are designed not only to conduct CRA at a local level but also to bridge the gap between science, policy, and society. Adaptable to regional contexts, they promote integration across sectors and knowledge systems, addressing both technical and social dimensions of climate-resilient development.
The survey findings underscore the importance of integrating diverse methods, co-creation practices, and open data to develop equitable and context-specific climate solutions across Europe. By adopting more inclusive participation, leveraging open-source tools, and building capacity in climate scenario integration, European regions can advance more equitable and effective CRA practices, fostering resilience across diverse hazard and vulnerability contexts.
How to cite: Mozzi, G., Biddau, F., Bachmann, M., Serrao, D., Niazkar, M., Mysiak, J., Stuparu, D., Pirani, A., and Pal, J.: Advancing Climate Resilience: Insights from a European Survey on Regional Climate Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10512, 2025.
Over the next decades, the effects of climate change are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to human health. Integrated mitigation and adaption strategies are urgent and should involve local and regional authorities at different levels where their expertise can make a difference. Moreover, developing and implementing tools and initiatives with the collaboration of citizens, researchers, and policymakers on specific climate change adaptation and mitigation measures would increase their ability to respond, and reduce their overall risk and vulnerability.
The ongoing DISTENDER Horizon Europe project aims to assess the effectiveness and robustness of different adaptation and mitigation measures by the development of a set of cross-sectoral and multi-scale modelling tools for impact assessment and economic evaluation framework that will feed a Decision Support System (DSS) to support decision making towards climate resilience. The DSS will include a tool that allows policy-makers to rank strategies, which have been previously assessed against a set of cross-sectorial climate change related indicators. This work will focus on the emissions, air quality and health related indicators (2 out of 14) that have been evaluated for the modellable strategies over a wide range of 330 strategies, for different European case studies, covering different sectors (agriculture, energy, transport and mobility, etc). The strategies were based on existing or new regional or local policies and challenges, and on the co-design by stakeholders in co-creation workshops, and were assessed by a modelling approach from emissions to health impacts and trade-offs for the future.
The methodology to evaluate the strategies, after a preliminary screening to identify which could be modelled, consisted of different steps, starting by the interpretation of each strategy and translation into a quantifiable effect on emissions, followed by its air quality and health simulation. The outputs were expressed as a percentage reduction or increase of health effects compared to the reference, that allowed to score the strategies from 1 (high increase) to 5 (high reduction) where 3 means no effect.
The results indicated that none of the strategies would lead to negative effects on health which was expected since most of them were mobility measures designed to reduce air pollution. The highest positive impacts were found for mobility strategies related to the drastic reduction of private cars and promotion of carbon neutral public transportation in urban areas. These outcomes will be part of the decision matrix of 14 indicators to be included in the DSS and help policy makers to select more efficiently the most adequate, robust and cost-benefit mitigation and adaption measures to tackle climate change risks in their regions.
How to cite: Ferreira, J., Coelho, S., Basso, J., Relvas, H., Lopes, M., Roebeling, P., and Miranda, A. I.: Air quality and health impacts of co-created climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17709, 2025.
To protect urban and natural environments and promote their transition towards climate resilience, the EU-funded ICARIA project is developing a suite of innovative and comprehensive tools, available as Web interfaces (Russo et al., 2023). This paper explores the IT challenges behind the ICARIA RAF App, a tool for holistic resilience assessment.
This comprehensive web application offers an integrated and forward-looking approach to climate change impact management. It draws upon the efforts of the RESCCUE project (RESCCUE RAF, Cardoso et al., 2019, and RAF App, Lopes et al., 2020), devoted to city climate resilience. This App extends previous work by integrating natural spaces and their climate change mitigation and adaptation capabilities and ecosystem services, by extending spatial scales from cities to regions, to address climate concerns at larger scales. Urban services and their interdependencies are still included. The usefulness of the App serves both management actions and capacity building, being used frequently in training actions. The App can be accessed at https://icaria.lnec.pt and registration is required before accessing the tool.
The use of technologies for quick and dynamic access to data and for producing instant results was necessary. The ICARIA RAF App relies on a web framework, developed in Django, a Python-based framework using HTML, JavaScript and Python for the web interface (Figure 1a). The Django framework supports various database management systems. In this application, the information made available in the interface is stored using PostgreSQL, a powerful, open source database with many features for securely storing and scaling complex data workloads.
The App allows for different user profiles, guaranteed through an authentication procedure. Users with administration permissions can manage regular users and app components, add new metrics and oversee and implement app deployments across distinct areas. Regular users can access their own studies but have several facilities to streamline new deployments, such as the cloning service, and technical support to assist with data input, such as the filtering of resilience metrics according to their typology or complexity.
The App is organized along the different resilience dimensions to be assessed, detailed according to the resilience objectives, criteria and metrics (Figure 1b). The users can select the desired resilience objective and criterium and address the correspondent metrics (Figure 1c). As data is inserted, the information is processed instantly, and resilience development levels, from incipient to progressing and advanced, are automatically calculated to generate a report (Figure 1d), to identify resilience strengths and weaknesses and plan improvements.
Figure 1 – a) App architecture, b) menus for navigation, c) and d)) Selected results available at the App.
References
Cardoso, M.A., Brito, R.S., et al (2019) Resilience Assessment Framework – RAF. Description and implementation. RESCCUE project Deliverable D6.4.
Lopes; P., A. Oliveira; C. Pereira; R. S. Brito; M. A. Cardoso; et al., RESCCUE RAF App – Using Technology to Mitigate Climate Change Urban Impacts, 2020. 43rd MIPRO, 1651-1655, doi: 10.23919/MIPRO48935.2020.9245231
Russo, B.; de la Cruz Coronas, À.; Leone, M.; Evans, B.; Brito, R.S. et al 2023. Improving Climate Resilience of Critical Assets: The ICARIA Project. Sustainability, 15, 14090. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914090
How to cite: Oliveira, A., Mendes, A., Salgado Brito, R., and Cardoso, M. A.: ICARIA RAF App – A user-friendly and holistic web tool to strengthen climate resilience of critical urban and natural assets and services, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3834, 2025.
Achieving climate neutrality requires a socio-ecological transformation of the mobility sector. Consequently, urban traffic infrastructure must be redesigned to promote and support active mobility. By analysing multiple criteria extracted from open-access geodata via OSM (OpenStreetMap), we can assess the current state of the urban traffic infrastructure and evaluate the walkability and bikeability of streets and neighborhoods. HeiGIT’s walkability and bikeability indices – HiWalk and HiBike – provide traffic planners, decision-makers, NGOs, and the general public with quantitative insights into how well a city's traffic infrastructure supports active mobility.
In recent years, numerous walkability and bikeability indices have emerged, focusing primarily on accessibility metrics. However, these anlyses often assume that all streets are equally suitable for active mobility, overlooking the specific needs of groups such as the elderly, young children, people with disabilities, and risk-averse cyclists.
It is therefore essential to address two critical gaps: (a) providing detailed information on the suitability of urban environments for active mobility, and (b) ensuring that traffic infrastructure transformation is inclusive. To meet these needs, we collaborate with practitioners and NGOs to co-create street-level indices of walkability (HiWalk) and bikeability (HiBike). Our goal is to offer practical applications that go beyond general index values for cities or neighborhoods. By assessing bikeability and walkability at the street-level, we can better inform routing engines and support accessibility analyses of inclusive “15-minute cities“.
HiWalk and HiBike consist of indicators that assess the user-friendliness, attractiveness, and safety of paths and streets. They evaluate factors such as the presence of sidewalks and cycling lanes, surface smoothness, and surface material types. HiBike also incorporates information on street-side parking from OSM to identify streets where cyclists may be at risk of “dooring”. Both indices are entirely based on open data and can be adapted to various urban settings worldwide.
Since HiWalk and HiBike are still under development, our presentation will focus on the main challenges we have encountered, including (1) their application for cities with different cultural, socioeconomic, and environmental contexts, and (2) the variability in the quality and completeness of OSM data. These challenges underscore the benefits of our co-creation approach in enhancing the indices' usability and impact on policy.
How to cite: v. Elverfeldt, K., Block, S., Kemmer, J., Wilke, E. C., Schott, M., Martin, M., Ulrich, V., Chandran, A., Gatland, D., Bayer, I., Buch, A., Hatfield, C., Parashar, S., and Neumann, D.: HiWalk and HiBike – active mobility indices as tool to facilitate systemic traffic transition in cities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19139, 2025.
The UCCRN (Urban Climate Change Research Network) City Solutions Case Study Atlas (City CSA) is an innovative initiative designed to advance urban climate action by creating a dynamic, interactive platform that visualizes and geo-localizes diverse climate solutions. The City CSA bridges critical knowledge gaps, particularly in the Global South, on current climate solution actions being implemented at the local level in previously underrepresented regions by compiling a comprehensive repository of case studies from a broad spectrum of stakeholders—including policymakers, researchers, city networks, and Indigenous communities. This project will result in the development of an online interactive platform featuring dynamic map visualisation that enables users to explore case studies by region and by cities, filter cases based on specific variables, and create flexible city groupings. Projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise for case study cities will be developed. Additionally, remote sensing data will provide insights into urban landscapes, land use changes, and environmental conditions. The City CSA will serve as a high-quality resource for cities and urban practitioners, promoting equitable knowledge exchange, facilitating climate adaptation and mitigation efforts globally, and enabling cross-regional learning and collaboration for urban climate resilient development. The City CSA will also serve as a rigorous evidence base for a variety of applications including the upcoming IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities.
How to cite: Solecki, W.: UCCRN City Solutions Case Study Atlas , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12563, 2025.
Climate change requires transformative adaptation and mitigation measures across all sectors of society, to ensure the ambitions established under the Paris Agreement. However, the implementation of measures can also have wider-reaching trade-offs in other sectors or for competing objectives. These unintended effects require methods that can capture both the direct and ripple effects of interventions, in terms of co-benefits and trade-offs.
South-Westphalia is a majority forested (spruce-dominated) sub-region of North Rhine-Westphalia in western Germany, where societal actors are pursuing solutions to meet the climate mitigation goals linked to the Paris Agreement while ensuring those solutions would be compatible with future climate. Given its typicality compared to many European forests, successes in South-Westphalia could apply to other similar regions across Europe.
The research objective is to explore how different options for measure selection and timing in forested regions perform regarding carbon sequestration and future climate resilience while comparing their trade-offs for competing objectives in other sectors. This is accomplished using CLUMondo (a land system model) and a carbon model to simulate the impact of changes in forest composition and management strategies on surrounding land-uses and carbon sequestration. The land-use map outputs of these management scenarios are then evaluated per timestep for their changes in carbon stock, total sequestration compared to t0, and sequestration increment. Furthermore, the effects on competing land-uses such as timbre from logging or yield from agriculture are evaluated to contextualise the effectiveness of measures/scenarios. The scenarios to be tested include a reference scenario (BAU), and alternative scenarios: afforestation with climate-adapted species; climate-adapted mixed forests; permanent forestry; and wind turbines. For each scenario, the speed and timing of measure implementation are tested for gradual, fast and instant implementation. The alternative scenarios aimed to reach carbon neutrality between the yearly emission from the local population (1.4 million people) of 2.95 Mt C (German emission per capita statistics multiplied by population) and the carbon sequestration increment per time-step by 2050.
Among the scenarios tested, afforestation with climate-adapted species showed good potential for sequestration, with a range of 2.06-2.7 Mt C sequestered per timestep in 2050 (depending on the speed of implementation), representing 69-92% of yearly emissions from South-Westphalia (3-4 times the reference scenario at 22%). However, the land-consuming nature of afforestation had large trade-offs for agricultural yields with a 77% and 34% reduction in cropland and pasture areas respectively. Therefore, afforestation in smaller amounts would ideally be better combined with other less land-consuming measures such as wind turbines to meet carbon sequestration goals at a lesser trade-off cost. The size of the impact from the pace of measure implementation on the final results in 2050 highlights the importance of prompt policy-making to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
How to cite: Blacow, C., Verburg, P., and Chopin, P.: Evaluating Measure Selection and Timing for Carbon Sequestration, Stock Resilience, and Cross-Sector Trade-offs in Forested Regions: Insights from the KNOWING Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10440, 2025.
Addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change requires embedding principles of climate-resilient development — carbon neutrality, adaptation, and well-being — into sectoral and cross-sectoral transformations. However, conventional approaches often fail to deliver the systemic change required to meet these goals at regional and local levels. This paper presents findings from the CLIMEMPOWER project, a Horizon Project that applies science-driven methodologies with community priorities to support climate-resilient development in five South European regions (Andalusia, Central Greece, Sicily, Cyprus, Osijek-Baranja County).
The paper presents the process of establishing the Community of Practice in Sicily, a region particularly vulnerable to climate-induced risks such as heatwaves, pluvial flooding, and drought. The CoP (established by the Sicilian Region with the support of Plinivs) engaged policymakers, public officials at regional and metropolitan levels, and researchers in a collaborative effort to address these pressing challenges. Through the co-design process, a key priority emerged: the development of tools to assess and ensure the climate-proofing of investments to be submitted for EU funding under the 2021–2027 financial programs.
To achieve this objective, the collaborative efforts can be viewed from a dual perspective: on one hand, climate models, based on detailed analyses of hazards and expected impacts, provide science-driven insights that help institutions in making informed decisions to enhance regional resilience. On the other hand, to address the priorities of local governments and institutions in allocating resources for new infrastructure or the renovation of existing ones, the models identify vulnerabilities and offer recommendations to identify the climate benefits and social, economic co-benefits that can be achieved based on the proposed actions.This process ensures that investments align with long-term climate resilience goals and that climate risks are considered early in the development and design stages.
These initiatives aim to improve the region's ability to allocate resources efficiently, prioritizing actions that are capable of simultaneously delivering significant social, economic, and environmental co-benefits for local communities. The study emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and stakeholder engagement to achieve equitable and effective climate transitions, providing actionable insights for researchers, policymakers, public officials and practitioners striving to operationalize climate resilience and enhance regional adaptive capacities.
How to cite: Pavone, V., Zuccaro, G., D'Angelo, G., Murano, I., Addabbo, N., Colonna, P., and Petruso, V.: Fostering Climate-Resilient Development through Collaborative Practices: Insights from the CLIMEMPOWER Project in Sicily. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20410, 2025.
Climate resilient development must be risk-informed to protect citizens, homes, and infrastructure from climate risks. Especially, urban floods underscore the vulnerability of cities and the complex challenges in managing growth and development.
Here we present two tools to support flood risk assessment and adaptation planning. HydroFlows (developed in the UP2030-HE project) provides modular workflows for standardized and reproducible probabilistic flood risk modelling and assessments based on a cascade of climate, hydrological, hydrodynamic and socio-economic impact models. The tool generates flood hazard and risk maps for various climate and urbanization scenarios. First, a rapid first-order flood risk screening can be performed based on global datasets at any given location, which can be refined further with local data where available. FloodAdapt leverages HydroFlows-generated data to bring the power of flood and impact modelling to a wider group of practitioners, such as policymakers and city staff, enabling them to explore different mitigation and adaptation strategies hands-on through a user-friendly graphical interface. This tool supports the economic and social evaluation of measures such as floodwalls, urban greening, water storage, elevating homes, buyouts, and floodproofing under diverse flood events and future conditions.
The Acari River basin in Rio de Janeiro, a densely populated and flood-prone region, has experienced significant floods, including a major event in January 2024 affecting 78,000 people. These floods caused extensive damage to homes, infrastructure, and public services. Despite ongoing efforts to improve drainage and build protective infrastructure, rapid urbanization and climate-related heavy rains continue to pose challenges. While the city has high-quality data, there is a need for comprehensive flood models to assess and predict flood risks. By combining these local datasets with public global data and our tooling, we were able to analyse how our tools can contribute to more informed, effective flood risk management and support climate resilient development.
How to cite: Gehrels, H., Eilander, D., Tromp, W., Tsiokanos, A., Rautenbach, S., Roscoe, K., Fraga, J. P., and Ney de Montezuma, P.: Rapid flood risk assessment and adaptation planning for climate resilient developments: a Rio de Janeiro case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18351, 2025.
The subsurface is often overlooked in the field sustainable natural resources management, even though it provides us with supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural geosystem services. Additionally, the subsurface can contribute to the transition towards a more sustainable society by, for examples, storing energy and extracting geothermal energy. Currently exploitation of the subsurface occurs on a first-come-first-served basis, which might lead to inefficiencies and inequities.
The need for sustainable development policies becomes progressively more essential, as subsurface exploitation is expected to increase. Six challenges are defined for sustainable use of geological resources: value pluralism, overexploitation, geological interferences, inequalities, multi-actor economies and uncertainties. To formulate scientifically sound advice for policymakers, it follows that expertise to tackle these challenges comes together.
Addressing the diverse knowledge requirements to solve complex problems evidently necessitates interdisciplinary collaboration. This collaboration has its own opportunities, including enhanced creativity and the ability to address complex issues. However, challenges frequently arise. For instance, difficulties emerge in finding consensus due to a wide array of viewpoints, accepted assumptions which are not shared in other disciplines, and a need to learn about each other’s fields. Such issues can cause friction when working on problems collectively. This paper proposes a novel framework for effective interdisciplinary collaboration, based on ongoing research within the DIAMONDS project. We present interdisciplinary methods and approaches for sustainable development of the subsurface.
We aspire to grapple with challenges related to geological resource use by building an interdisciplinary team, developing an integrative framework and studying a stakeholder-validated case. The identified challenges form a guideline to establish which expertise is necessary to study sustainable subsurface management. Once adequate expertise is found, the integrative framework, as detailed below, supports the team in integrating their knowledge and research outcomes. Firstly, we highlight the need for repeated interaction. This requires sustained consortium meetings, which address previously outlined interdisciplinary challenges. Additionally, we aim to increase the validity of our research by performing a stakeholder mapping and engaging key stakeholders to ensure adequate representation. Secondly, our management practices aim to support collaboration, both within the project (e.g. consortium, researcher and one-on-one meetings) and with external stakeholders. Interactions with stakeholders are tailored to their expertise, ranging from interviews with a technical focus to workshops discussing equitable ownership of segments of the subsurface. Finally, all insights are synthesized and serve as input to flexible methodologies which allow integration across disciplines. For example, causal loop diagrams show causal connections, possibly crossing disciplines, when describing the subsurface system.
This framework on interdisciplinary collaboration is applied to a stakeholder-validated case study. It examines two potentially interacting shallow subsurface activities: aquifer thermal energy storage and groundwater extraction. This paper describes our interdisciplinary approach and the methods we applied to the case.
How to cite: Van Overmeiren, A., Lamberts-Van Assche, H., Tovar, A., Verbruggen, K., Wallmeier, C., Tas, L., Deleersnyder, W., Rodriguez, J., Peeters, H., Piessens, K., Daniilidis, A., Vardon, P., Bleys, B., Bergmans, A., Hermans, T., Buyle, M., and Compernolle, T.: Interdisciplinary Pathways for Sustainable Management of Geological Resources: A Case Study in Flanders, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17552, 2025.
As cities work towards becoming more resilient, they encounter a range of challenges related to adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development. Often, these challenges are addressed in silos, with efforts focusing either on isolated aspects or on just two of the three objectives at a time, leaving a truly integrated approach unmet. Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDP) aim to integrate adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development over time, taking into account (deep) uncertainties about climate change and other sources of uncertainty. These pathways support the integrated planning and execution of climate action, while maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development.
A novel systematic approach has been developed to operationalise CRDP, using the well-established method for adaptation pathways, “Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP)”, as a starting point. This novel approach, CRDAPP, starts by envisioning multiple desirable futures and understanding the decision context and current policy objectives and actions for adaptation, mitigation and development. Thereafter, the synergies and trade-offs are assessed between the different climate actions, and policy relevant tipping points are identified – meaning points in time when new actions will be required. Next, alternative pathways are formulated of desirable actions for climate resilient development over time. The final outcome is a pathways map, as well as an implementation and monitoring plan.
To date, the novel CRDAPP approach has only been applied qualitatively. In this study, we demonstrate how the approach can be used to develop semi-quantitative pathways co-created with the city of Logroño, Spain. Special focus is placed on showing how existing climate services and tools can support the development of CRDP with substantive quantitative scientific evidence, e.g. for identifying combined hotspots for climate risks and social vulnerability, or for understanding the effectiveness of different measures, both crucial aspects to develop CRDP. Tools for quantitatively evaluating the interactions between adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development objectives and measures are also explored for Logroño. However, we identify the development of tools and services that offer a quantitative assessment of these interactions as an area requiring further research, to progress towards fully quantified CRDP.
Throughout the co-development process, the municipality of Logroño gained valuable insights into the range of options for achieving resilient urban futures over time, as well as strategies for sequencing measures in the context of climate change. The climate resilient development pathways provide helpful support to the municipality in advancing integrated climate action planning, aligning adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development efforts.
How to cite: S. Langendijk, G., McEvoy, S., Jeuken, A., Haasnoot, M., Zorita, S., and Pena, N.: Co-development of semi-quantitative climate resilient development pathways for the city of Logroño, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11861, 2025.
Three Horizon Europe projects - DISTENDER, KNOWING and NEVERMORE - have been launched to improve the understanding of the complex interactions between climate change impacts, risks and the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. These projects aim to develop methodologies and tools that support the formulation of effective climate strategies, thereby improving decision-making processes. Together, they will generate: (1) new knowledge on earth system dynamics and improved climate prediction capabilities; (2) a better understanding of how socio-economic factors interact with climate factors to shape future scenarios; (3) innovative methods and context-specific knowledge for integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies; (4) sector-specific guidelines for implementing climate actions; and (5) policy recommendations relevant to multiple scales of governance. DISTENDER (DevelopIng STratEgies by integratIng mitigatioN, aDaptation, and participation to climate changE Risks) focuses on the co-development of integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies by combining local knowledge with global and regional data through participatory approaches. Its Decision Support System (DSS) will provide guidelines, tools and policy recommendations to promote adaptive and resilient climate strategies. KNOWING (Framework for defining climate change mitigation pathways based on integrated understanding and assessment of climate impacts, adaptation strategies and societal transformation) aims to develop a holistic modelling framework that quantifies the interaction between climate impacts, risks, mitigation and adaptation, providing critical support to region-specific policies and actions. NEVERMORE (New Enabling Visions and tools for End-useRs and stakeholders thanks to a common MOdeling fRamework towards a climatE neutral and resilient society) focuses on physical modelling and assessment of climate impacts and risk while maintaining coherence at National, EU and local levels. Its integrated modelling framework, supported by practical ICT tools, will facilitate decision-making to improve climate resilience. The three projects contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the local climate situation through risk and vulnerability assessments including also the adaptive capacity. Local-scale climate and socio-economic projections are used to estimate future impacts and emissions, helping to identify region-specific adaptation and mitigation actions. These actions are assessed and prioritised based on costs, co-benefits and trade-offs between multiple objectives.
How to cite: San Jose, R., Torre, A., Leone, M., Perez-Camanyo, J. L., Buegelmayer-Blaschek, M., Ramos, I., and Tovaas, K.: Improving understanding of interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation: Insights from three EU projects DISTENDER, KNOWING and NEVERMORE., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6238, 2025.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that air pollution causes seven million deaths annually. As climate change is expected to affect future air quality patterns, understanding the links between air pollution, climate change, and their health impacts remains a pressing research challenge. Addressing this challenge, this study, conducted within the HE Project DISTENDER, explores potential health impacts attributable to air pollution under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) across five European regions: Austria, the EURAF region (Montado-Dehesa in the Iberian Peninsula), the North-east Netherlands, metropolitan area of Turin (Italy), and urban area of Guimarães (Portugal). These diverse case studies span different characteristics in terms of sectors, scale, climate impacts, environmental, socioeconomic and cultural factors, and climate policy goals, enhancing the replicability of findings.
Air pollutant concentrations (PM10, PM2.5, NO2) were assessed using the Gaussian model URBAIR®, configured with spatial resolutions ranging from 9000 to 500 meters, depending on the domain. Simulations were performed for each year from 2015 to 2049 in two rounds. In Round1, the URBAIR simulations were using as input data the meteorological variables provided by the statistical downscaling of CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR global climate models (GCMs), for the selected SSPs scenarios, keeping land use and air pollutants emissions as in the present. In Round2a, the same meteorological variables of Round1 were used, but only considering EC-EARTH3 GCM, and land use and air pollutants emissions were changed according with each SSP narrative.
For both rounds, following the European Environmental Agency methodology and according to the WHO guidelines, concentration-response functions for different morbidity and mortality health indicators were used to estimate health impacts of long-term exposures, considering the modelled concentrations by grid cell and pollutant, together with population data stratified by age and sex. For Round1 population was kept as in the present, and in Round2a was updated following the SSP narratives.
In General, results indicate distinct trends in mortality and morbidity indicators related to air pollution for the coming years, depending on the case study and the GCM used. For Round1, for all case studies and GCMs, the SSP5-8.5 scenario (the one with higher climate change impacts) is the one that presents the highest number of cases for both mortality and morbidity. However, in Round2a, for each case study, it is possible to verify relevant differences between the results linked with each SSP scenario, as well as high interannual variability. These differences relative to Round1 are mainly determined by changes in: (i) land use; (ii) emissions; and (iii) population.
This study underscores the need for interdisciplinary methods to support climate-resilient development at regional and local levels. The analysis of multiple SSPs scenarios allow for a more complete view of the interactions between climate and air quality policies, allowing to support decision makers in the development of ‘win-win’ strategies that simultaneously improve air quality and limit climate change. The findings provide a basis for scalable strategies that address context-specific climate impacts and foster systemic transformations, supporting decision-makers in advancing resilient and sustainable development pathways.
How to cite: Coelho, S., Rodrigues, V., and Ferreira, J.: How different SSPs will affect air quality and human health: the DISTENDER project framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10811, 2025.
In a race against time to limit climate change and to prepare for its consequences, global societies need to find effective strategies to simultaneously mitigate greenhouse gas emission and adapt to a changing climate. The European Commission mandates that all member states become carbon neutral by 2050; however, the specific actions towards these objectives are left to regional authorities, presenting complex challenges for local stakeholders and decision-makers. How can carbon emission be reduced or sequestered, while adapting to the growing risk of climate extremes, and while securing the well-being and prosperity of citizens? How to plan the adoption of sufficient measures in the coming decades, while preventing spill-over effects across sectors and objectives? Project KNOWING develops and implements a new methodology to explicitly address these challenges. Together with four regions – Granollers (Spain), Naples (Italy), South Westphalia (Germany) and Tallinn (Estonia) – we co-create sets of specific interventions for adaptation and for mitigation. We use ~12 domain-specific, state-of-the-art computer models, to simulate future localized climate hazards and to evaluate the effectiveness of the selected interventions. We then integrate the results of these model into a system dynamics framework, which enables us to quantify the collective effect of all interventions towards the stated goals, and to chart pathways of action until 2050. We will present the approach, the solutions to the emerging challenges, and preliminary results for our four regions.
How to cite: Scussolini, P., Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek, M., Pisacane, G., Chopin, P., Esbrí, M. Á., Kiesel, J., and Blacow, C.: Integrated pathways of local adaptation and mitigation towards climate neutrality and resilience – Experience from the KNOWING project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9435, 2025.
As climate change is an urgent global threat, the EU’s Green Deal aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, while ensuring fair and sustainable implementation. Achieving this goal requires both mitigation and adaptation measures, with a focus on understanding the interactions and trade-offs between them. One major shortcoming of current modelling approaches is the omission of interactions between domain-specific models from various fields, as they often differ in their modelling approaches. However, this is crucial in understanding the full impact of mitigation and adaptation measures, as their impact cascades into many sectors.
Among other demonstrator regions within the KNOWING project, future scenarios for the city of Tallinn (Estonia), incorporating traffic related mitigation and heat related adaptation measures are modelled in close exchange with city representatives. The traffic and transport sectors are simulated with a state-of-the-art multimodal tour-based transport model, which aims to depict passenger and freight transport activities and traffic flows for a typical workday for the status-quo, 2030, 2040 and 2050. To understand the microclimate as well as to identify heat stress hotspots of the city, the state-of-the-art model PALM-4U is used. A hot summer day with boundary conditions from a mesoscale climate model is applied to the status-quo city as well as a Tallinn of 2030, 2040 and 2050.
To capture the impact of the transport scenarios to the microclimate simulationstransport infrastructure changes have been implemented as land-use changes within PALM-4U. Desealing of street lanes as well as parking lots and added street greenery within the future scenarios is applied in PALM-4U based on the modelled changes in transport infrastructure. Vice versa, the transport model is also impacted by the microclimate model, as street canyons with high heat stress during the daytime might be avoided by cyclists and pedestrians alike.
This results effectively in a quantification of exposure for pedestrians and cyclists for each link, allowing to define additional weights for these passages within the transport model. These weights account for a disutility for pedestrians and cyclists within destination choice, mode choice and route assignment procedures. As the typical working day traffic is simulated for the entire year and the heat day simulation is only valid for some summer days, the weights derived from microclimate model are only applied as statistically appropriate for each future scenario.
Many further interactions and linkages between the two modelling approaches are still omitted, however the possible enhancement of the transport model with heat stress information from the climate model lays an important foundation for further understanding the intersectoral impacts of climate adaptation measures and adds additional value in transit-orientated development.
How to cite: Hochebner, A., Kokoll, B., Bügelmayer-Blaschek, M., Schneider, M., and Straub, M.: Enhancing transport modelling with microclimate simulations: an interdisciplinary approach to climate adaptation modelling within the KNOWING project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7940, 2025.
We are entering the Anthropocene, a period characterized by widespread urbanization and growing concerns about sustainable development goals. Remotely sensed observations provide valuable insights into historical urban dynamics, but this data is limited to the satellite era. To address this, we employed a cellular automata model along with long-term satellite observations of urban extent to both hindcast urban dynamics from 1870 to 1990 and project future trends from 2020 to 2100 under the diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Additionally, based on urban form, we estimated the compounded thermal environment within urban areas, driven by both urbanization and climate change, in a spatially explicit manner. The resulting scenario datasets can support interdisciplinary research in areas such as public health and energy consumption.
How to cite: Li, X., Yu, G., Liu, S., Geng, M., Zhou, Y., and Gong, P.: Global spatially explicit modeling of urban growth under diverse SSP-RCP scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2116, 2025.
The increased frequency of extreme weather events – a consequence of both man-made climate and land-use changes – pushes city governments to implement measures to ameliorate the impacts on city inhabitants. While governments are working to develop solutions to address heat, drought, and flooding, these challenges are often tackled separately through differing disciplinary lenses. However, individual measures may either compete with or complement one another; and it is critical to gain a better understanding of this interactions.
In this research, we use systems mapping approach to combine the varying disciplinary perspectives of urban climate measures. We aim to identify critical areas where improved information flows could enhance decision-making and policy integration. Here, we use a systems map to point out how a few active measures can act as leverage to ameliorate heat stress while having synergetic effects on other sustainable development goals and increasing the system's resilience against extreme events. The work is partly based on results of the project Imp_DroP (Impact of longer Drought Periods on Climate in Greater Vienna: appropriate Mitigation measures) and discussions with stakeholders. The system borders are defined as the actual city borders during summer heat and drought condition. The system includes all important geophysical parameters as well as planning solutions in the building sector, traffic planning and urban open space design that are known and discussed to mitigate heat stress.
Important levers driving change are cooler building envelopes, (tree) shade in pedestrian areas, and increasing water-holding capacity, which can contribute to both a reduction in local temperatures and a decrease in the city's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Both indoor and outdoor thermal comfort are considered, as they are highly connected. Irrigation volumes and anthropogenic heat emissions are tackled as well as competition for public space and roof area.
From a system level perspective, a set of balancing loops could be identified in and across subsystems that can help in understanding and facilitating sustainable urban development. While ‘simple’ technical solutions can be of isolated nature (fixing only one problem and likely causing unintended side effects), other solutions such as increasing the availability of urban open space for pedestrians and vegetation are more difficult to implement, but have a reinforcing character, the potential to solve multiple problems across the system including enabling higher quality urban environments.
How to cite: Trimmel, H., Eker, S., Swamy, D., Tan, R., and Niamir, L.: Synergistic nature of sustainable development solutions centred on heat stress in the urban system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6177, 2025.
With the trend of the net-zero transition, the financial industry plays a critical role in providing capital and accelerating the global transition to net-zero. However, the transition is a gradual process. This study proposes a framework for climate transition assessment called "Net-Zero Transition Knowledge Map". The framework provides financial institutions with a reference for evaluating corporate net-zero transition performance, supports net-zero strategy implementation, and drives economic transition.
The construction of the knowledge map involves identifying and mapping knowledge requirements to provide a suitable process for analyzing and presenting. Integrating industry characteristics on climate, this study analyses corporate transition performance by collecting and systematically evaluating indexes of climate transition.
The proposed framework integrates quantitative and qualitative analysis from the industry level to individual enterprises through four key steps: first, identifying industry characteristics by analyzing the type of industries, with a focus on restrictive or sensitive sectors on climate, and conducting value chain analysis to assess involvement in high-carbon activities or potential transition technologies. Second, comprehensive indicators should be collected to establish clear data sources and foundations for assessment. Third, establish benchmarks through general and industry-specific metrics. Finally, assess corporate transition maturity by evaluating current performance and future transition plans.
This study contributes a practical assessment model by integrating corporate climate goals and industry-specific net-zero transition characteristics on a science-based. It provides strategy references for financial institutions and offers strong support for promoting economic systems toward a net-zero transition.
Keywords: transition finance, climate risk assessment, knowledge map
How to cite: Liu, C.-C., Tsao, J.-H., Liu, I.-W., Hung, W., and Tsai, T.-C.: The Role of Financial Institutions in Net-Zero Transition: Building a Knowledge Map for Climate Transition Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7610, 2025.
Enhancing the usability of climate services for adaptation action - the example of the Climate Register
Climate change-related challenges can differ greatly in different regions due to natural, structural and socio-economic factors. Therefore, adaptation solutions should address the regional specific spatial and societal challenges. The RegIKlim project (Regional Information on Climate Action) addresses this need by developing climate information for local climate action. Within RegIKlim six model regions across Germany develop and implement climate service products for local decision support. The two cross-cutting research projects NUKLEUS and WIRKsam support the model regions by providing high resolution climate model data (3 km grid) and by channeling climate adaptation research to develop usable tools and information at the interface between regional climate modeling and impact modeling.
The common goal of WIRKsam and NUKLEUS is to develop a web-based climate information platform, the Climate Register, that focuses specifically on the support of climate adaptation action. The proposed poster presentation aims to present the concept of the Climate Register, based on a thorough needs assessment. Specific objectives of the Climate Register are to provide high-resolution climate model and geo data, climate services developed in the model regions as well as guidance and interpretations documents.
Co-developed tools and relevant additional information aim to support decision-making of regional climate adaptation. Furthermore, scientifical methods for developing measurable local adaptation targets and improving the practical relevance of climate services (e.g. how climate services help to draw up an adaptation strategy) will be included. In this regard, the Climate Register pursues a one-stop-shop approach. The contribution is intended to inform about the activities of the RegIKlim funding measure and to stimulate discussion about how data and information can be effectively used for regional climate adaptation action and the corresponding decision-making process.
How to cite: Laranjeira, K., Harrs, J.-A., Dalitz, L., and Tiedje, B.: Enhancing the usability of climate services for adaptation action - the example of the Climate Register, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6735, 2025.
There is an urgency of planning, designing and retrofitting the Built Environment in order to be adaptable to present and future risks induced by climatic and non-climatic hazards. The assessment of risk and resilience in the Built Environment requires understanding the inseparable relationship between physical spaces and their users across different scales. Key Performance Indicators provide a quantitative approach to assessing risk and resilience, enabling a systematic evaluation of diverse factors within the Built Environment. The MULTICLIMACT Horizon Europe project (GA 101123538) offers innovative solutions across three scales to address these challenges: building, urban, and territorial. Through the development of design practices, materials, technologies, and digital solutions, the project strengthens construction resilience, preparedness, and responsiveness to disruptive events, thereby improving safety and quality of life. Central to this objective is the development of a set of quantitative Key Performance Indicators to assess the level of risk and resilience of AS IS asset condition and future TO BE possible scenarios in the Built Environment. The study, developed within MULTICLIMACT, identifies key factors that influence risk and resilience, including people, buildings, infrastructure, cultural heritage, urban and territorial systems under climate-related and non-climate-related hazards, such as earthquakes. Rooted in international guidelines and standards, and validated through engagement with experts in the Built Environment, the quantitative indicators facilitate comprehensive assessments across various scales, users, and systems to inform policies, strategies, actions, solutions and projects. Key contributions include the identification of quantitative Key Performance Indicators for risk factors—hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—and resilience qualities such as robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, and redundancy. The study also considers resilience dimensions, including environmental, economic, physical, digital, human, and well-being aspects. These indicators address critical gaps in existing frameworks, offering actionable insights for policymakers, designers, and practitioners to evaluate current conditions and envision future scenarios for new developments or regeneration projects. The findings emphasize the importance of holistic approaches that integrate human well-being, environmental sustainability, and cultural preservation into resilience planning and design. This work provides essential tools for quantifying and enhancing resilience, supporting evidence-based decision-making to reduce the level of risks and increase the level of resilience to escalating climatic and non-climatic hazards.
How to cite: Ricciardi, G., Reder, A., Scalas, M., Apreda, C., and Mercogliano, P.: Climate and non-climate risk assessment framework for built environment assets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19198, 2025.
As global warming and climate change intensify, electricity consumption is increasing every year, and extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves in particular are causing irregular energy consumption, which is adding serious difficulties to predicting and managing electricity supply. In 2022, during the heat wave period in Korea when temperatures approached 40 degrees Celsius, electricity demand surged, which put a great burden on the power grid, and there were repeated instances of unstable power supply. This situation carries the risk of causing an emergency such as a large-scale power outage.
This study aims to analyze the probability distribution of power consumption to analyze these problems more precisely and to suggest ways to improve power management.
The study analyzed the impact of various weather conditions and temperature changes on energy consumption using the EnergyPlus building energy model. The entire Korean Peninsula was divided into 425 grids at 0.25º intervals, and temperature and power data for each grid were constructed. Through this, the differences in energy consumption changes by region across the entire Korean Peninsula were reflected, providing basic data for more precise power management.
The results of this study will provide useful statistical information on regional energy consumption and contribute to establishing power management strategies to effectively respond to changes in energy demand due to climate change. In addition, the significance of this study is to provide practical assistance in increasing the accuracy of energy resource management through risk analysis according to future population movement and regional development.
How to cite: Kang, H., Ahn, S., and Moon, W.: Analysis of regional energy composition changes in Korea during high temperature cases using EnergyPlus model simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7878, 2025.
The relationship between climate variability and building energy consumption is critical for understanding future energy demand. This study examines the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on building energy patterns in South Korea, with a focus on seasonal cooling and heating demands. By integrating long-term ERA5 reanalysis data (1979–2023) into a building energy simulation framework, we identified significant trends driven by climatic oscillations.
When the PDO is in its negative phase, cooling energy demand in summer increases while heating energy demand in winter decreases, reflecting a shift in energy requirements due to regional climate anomalies. Conversely, the positive PDO phase results in reduced cooling demand and heightened heating demand, reversing these trends. These findings provide critical insights into the dynamic interplay between large-scale climate patterns and building energy consumption, highlighting the necessity of adaptive energy strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability.
Our results underscore the importance of including regional climate variability, such as PDO and ENSO phases, in building energy analyses to enhance predictive accuracy and inform sustainable energy policy development. The implications of these insights extend to infrastructure planning, enabling more resilient and efficient energy systems amidst a changing climate.
How to cite: Ahn, S., Moon, W., and Kang, H.: Analysis of Building Energy Consumption Under Climate Variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7886, 2025.
The rapid urbanization of landscapes and the impacts of climate change are profoundly transforming urban ecosystems, with signifiant implications for ecosystem services that benefit human health and well-being. The restoration and conservation of urban ecosystems play a crucial role in enhancing climate resilience, as they address three interrelated dimensions: mitigation, multi-hazard adaptation, and the generation of socio-economic and environmental co-benefits. These actions also support additional ecosystem services essential to urban well-being. Among these, regulating services—such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation—are particularly critical in addressing the effects of climate change. In fact, trees and plants play a well-recognized role in sequestering CO₂ during their growth by storing it in woody biomass, including trunks, roots, and branches [1] [2].
In this context, one of the main challenges for urban designers and planners lies in effectively integrating vegetation into urban and neighborhood-scale projects. To address this, the implementation of designer-friendly digital tools in practitioners workflows can be very useful for several aspects, reducing knowledge gaps, streamlining complex data management, and facilitating the application of environmental science principles in design workflows [3] [4].
The study presented led to the development of a computational tool in the Grasshopper3D working environment (McNeel). This tool allows users to quantify the CO₂ storage potential of specific tree species in urban environments, considering their growth stages and species-specific characteristics. This quantification represents a preliminary step toward creating a comprehensive tool for the design and management of urban green spaces. The tool is intended to guide professionals in adopting planning approaches that integrate ecosystem service evaluations. Additionally, it offers a foundation for assessing socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, such as improved public health, enhanced community inclusion, increased biodiversity, and better air quality.
An experimentation of the tool was conducted in the San Giovanni a Teduccio neighborhood as part of the Erasmus+ UCCRN_Edu project. This densely populated urban area faces significant environmental challenges. The analysis quantified the contribution of existing trees to CO₂ storage, providing critical data to improve environmental quality and enhance ecosystem services within the neighborhood.
References
- McPhearson, T., Karki, M., Herzog, C., Santiago Fink, H., Abbadie, L., Kremer, P., Clark, C. M., Palmer, M. I., and Perini, K. (2018). Urban ecosystems and biodiversity. In Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, P. Romero-Lankao, S. Mehrotra, S. Dhakal, and S. Ali Ibrahim (eds.), Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Cambridge University Press. New York. 257–318
- European Environment Agency (EEA), (2022), 'Nature-based solutions in Europe: Policy, knowledge and practice for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction', Climate Change and Law Collection, pp. 40, 44-48, doi:10.1163/9789004322714_cclc_2021-0190-608
- Nocerino, G., Leone, M.F. (2024). WorkerBEE: A 3D Modelling Tool for Climate Resilient Urban Development. In: Calabrò, F., Madureira, L., Morabito, F.C., Piñeira Mantiñán, M.J. (eds) Networks, Markets & People. NMP 2024. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 1189. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-74723-6_2
- Nocerino, G., Leone, M.F. (2023), Computational LEED: computational thinking strategies and Visual Programming Languages to support environmental design and LEED credits achievement. Energy Build. 278, 112626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112626
How to cite: Nocerino, G. and Tedesco, S.: Integrating Digital Solutions into Urban Planning: A Computational Tool for CO₂ Storage and Green Space Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20622, 2025.
Various human activities generate reactive nitrogen (Nr, all forms of nitrogen except di-nitrogen [N2]); food production is one of the primary emission sources. Chemical fertilizer, which we can generate artificially, is indispensable to meet the world population's demand. However, excessive fertilizer use leads to nitrogen leaching into water bodies and N2O emissions harming the environment. To overcome the problems, we should reuse organic resources such as manure instead of chemical fertilizers. Moreover, it is known that the present meat-dominant food style produces more Nr load on the environment than a plant-based diet. Therefore, customers’ food choice also significantly affects the nitrogen balance. To explore measures of Nr load mitigation both on the produce and customer sides, we applied the concept of food nitrogen footprint to a subtropical island in Japan—Ishigaki Island, as a case study. Agriculture and tourism are the primary industries on the island. The main products are sugarcane, pineapple, beef, and calf; most of them are exported. The food for the inhabitants relies on the import. We used the statistical data from 2022 for the calculation. The results showed that Nr loss from the island’s food system was 41.7 kgN per capita; 58% and 33% of the Nr load were related to the exported and imported food, respectively, indicating trade-oriented characteristics. Most of the Nr influx was chemical fertilizer and imported food and feed. The results indicated that reducing chemical fertilizer use and importing food and feed would effectively mitigate the Nr loss in the Island’s food system. By conducting scenario analyses, it was revealed that manure use reduced Nr loss on the island (13% reduction), and changing import food from a meat-dominant into a plant-dominant reduced mainly the Nr loss in overseas, where imported food produced (26% reduction). This indicated that both production and consumers’ choices are necessary to reduce Nr loss not only on the island but also in overseas. These findings contribute to maintaining the global nitrogen balance.
How to cite: Hamada, K., Eguchi, S., Hirano, N., and Asada, K.: Assessing nitrogen load on a trade-oriented subtropical island in Japan by the concept of food nitrogen footprint, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14524, 2025.
Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is responsible for millions of premature deaths globally each year. Wildfires are a major source of PM2.5, creating dangerously high levels of air pollution across extensive regions. Current public health recommendations for wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure include staying indoors and using portable air cleaners or central air systems with adequate filtration. We addressed the gaps in understanding central air system usage during wildfires by studying smart thermostat data from approximately 5,000 California homes during the 2020 wildfire peak, proving that these systems are not effectively utilized for improving air quality. We explored the potential health benefits of optimizing central air system operation using smart thermostats and air quality data through modelling and simulation. An automated optimization approach could decrease indoor PM2.5 exposure by up to 30% compared to standard air conditioning use, and up to 56% during peak wildfire smoke days. While this increased operation incurs an additional energy cost of about $5 per month per household (totalling $75 million), it is partially offset by an estimated 51% reduction in premature mortality, which translates to $29 million in monetized health benefits. Replacing a MERV 10 filter with a MERV 13 filter and reducing house leakage further reduces indoor PM2.5 concentrations. Overall, using a central air system with proper filtration can be as effective as using four portable air cleaners for on average house. The greatest potential for reducing health risks associated with PM2.5 exposure through an automated optimised system is in lower-income areas. This study reveals that existing technologies and infrastructure, often overlooked, could significantly improve protection for building occupants from wildfire smoke. Finally, to assist end users in mitigating risks in indoor environments, we developed a software tool to optimize the control of automated central air conditioning systems and portable air cleaners.
Acknowledgment
This project was funded by the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS – Award Number: 2021-0000000055) and the Center for the Built Environment (CBE) at the University of California, Berkeley. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant (PIONEER - grant no. 844526). This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the HORIZON-MISS-2023-CLIMA-01-03 (healthRiskADAPT - grant no. 101157458)
How to cite: Dallo, F.: Health Benefits of Optimized Control of Air Conditioning Systems and Portable Air Cleaners During Wildfire Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20226, 2025.
Land-use is facing multi-dimensional challenges, among other things stemming from climate change and extreme weather events, taxing socio-economic and market conditions, changing societal and consumer trends, as well as complex subsidy regimes and environmental regulations. These combined challenges require land users to increasingly adapt their management strategies and decision-making routines. To test for potential effects of these challenges on patterns of land-use change requires models that incorporate systemic feedbacks between land users and their environmental, socio-economic and political framework conditions. To this end, we developed the agent-based model SECLAND-ABM, simulating land-use change resulting from decision-making processes of individual farm agents (i.e. agricultural holdings). The model enables to link biophysical and societal drivers of land-use change and, through subsequent (soft) coupling with biodiversity or ecosystem models (e.g., SDM, LDNDC), their effects on ecosystem change.
The first model version was developed for the alpine LTSER Platform Eisenwurzen in Austria. The focus of the present study is to transfer SECLAND-ABM to a new study region, the LTSER Platform Doñana in southern Spain. This region represents a completely different environmental, agricultural and socio-economic context, comprising a unique and well-protected wetland ecosystem surrounded by a complex matrix of mostly intensive and mono-functional agriculture. This mediterranean socio-ecological system is critically impacted by climate change as well as excessive anthropogenic land and water use, threatening local biodiversity and agricultural production.
The transfer of agent-based models between study regions is rare and often constricted by the need for a broad range of quantitative and qualitative data, as well as by a lack of flexibility in adapting the model logic to new types of agents and their behaviors and interactions. Therefore, we further developed the SECLAND-ABM to enable its transfer to other study regions. This development represents a significant methodological innovation in the field and the present study provides a proof-of-concept generating critical insights for further progress.
To implement the model transfer we require different data sets spanning the natural and social science domains (i.e., geo-spatial, environmental, census and qualitative data), describing the local land system and its land users’ behaviors. Subsequently, we define model agents and their decision options congruent within this new context and create distinct scenario conditions to test for the effects of potential changes in the biophysical, socio-economic and political frameworks.
This presentation aims to provide (i) a short description of the SECLAND-ABM and its main components, (ii) a brief overview of the LTSER Platform Doñana and its core challenges connected to land use and climate change, as well as (iii) a spotlight on the status-quo of model transfer, particularly related to the collection of input data, the specification of model agents and their decision options, and the definition of scenario conditions.
How to cite: Bertsch-Hörmann, B., Egger, C., Grammer, B., Méndez, P. F., Díaz-Delgado, R., and Gaube, V.: Transferring an agent-based model to simulate land use and climate change adaptation in a contested, water-stressed region in southern Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20576, 2025.
Posters virtual: Thu, 1 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-9262 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS29
A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Resilience: Global Insights and Implications for IndiaThu, 01 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.15
The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a critical framework for addressing resource interdependencies and building resilience against climate change impacts. Despite its growing prominence, significant knowledge gaps remain, particularly in quantifying resilience and integrating cross-sectoral dynamics into actionable policymaking. This review synthesizes existing literature on the WEF nexus, focusing on its evolution, current trends, and resilience frameworks. Employing meta-analysis, this study quantifies key trends in WEF nexus resilience research, identifying dominant methodologies, geographic patterns, and gaps in policy and practice.
The findings reveal a global emphasis on conceptual frameworks and modelling approaches, with limited application to localized contexts, especially in India. To bridge this gap, this study highlights the need for policy coherence analyses and system dynamics modelling to assess resilience of the WEF-nexus under various climate scenarios. Thus, providing actionable insights for researchers and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of integrated, scalable, and data-driven approaches to enhancing the resilience of WEF systems.
How to cite: Cheranda, T. M., Santhanam, H., and Murthy, I. K.: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Resilience: Global Insights and Implications for India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9262, 2025.
