High-impact events driven by weather extremes, such as large-scale drought-induced mortality, crop failure, mega-fires, and widespread tree mortality are expected to intensify under climate change in many regions. While the importance of climate change in increasing the frequency or intensity of many such events has been demonstrated by climate attribution studies, non-climatic factors such as landscape structure and composition, diversity, biotic agents, disturbance history, etc., shape ecosystem resistance and ability to recover from such events.
Quantifying the role of non-climatic factors on observed impacts is challenging, since they are often of second order importance, given the signal of weather extreme anomalies. Nevertheless, quantifying the importance of such non-climatic factors and how they are influenced by human activities is crucial to anticipate potential loss of resistance/resilience and to support effective adaptation strategies to ongoing climate change. Here, we discuss the importance of non-climatic factors for climate risks based on historical events and show how the ecoclimatic event framework can be adapted to support the attribution of climatic vs. non-climatic factors in climate risk assessments for ecosystems.
How to cite: Bastos, A., Butler, E., Eifler, L., Ermitão, T., Ma, Y., Migliavacca, M., Müller, F., Sippel, S., Terristi, M., Xiao, C., and Yu, X.: The importance of non-climatic factors in climate risk assessments for ecosystems , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5664, 2025.
The rise in forest disturbances due to climate change poses a serious threat to key forest ecosystem services, yet impact and adaptation assessments are scarce at European scale. Here we estimate the forest biomass loss in Europe due to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks over 1979-2018 and evaluate potential adaptation benefits by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. Results show an average overall annual biomass loss of 41.6±5.3 Mt at European level subject to a significant rise of 2.3±0.3 Mt year-1, largely influenced by climate change (72-98%). The contribution of insect outbreaks appears prominent (79%) compared to windthrows (20%) and fires (1%) and linked to their upsurge after year 2000. However, impacts vary greatly across Europe depending on local environmental conditions. We estimate that enhancing ecosystem heterogeneity could reduce biomass loss by about 18% and such action should therefore be fostered in forest adaptation policies.
How to cite: Forzieri, G., Jactel, H., Bianchi, A., Spinoni, J., Somasundaram, D., Feyen, L., and Cescatti, A.: Ecosystem heterogeneity is key to limiting the increasing climate-driven risks to European forests, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1994, 2025.
Since the beginning of the industrial era, the climate of our planet and the human environment have been changing rapidly. Therefore, known and new types of extreme events have been and will continue to be a challenge. An example of a climate challenge is climatological extremes. In recent decades, extreme weather events such as wildfires, floods, droughts, and heat waves have increased across the globe. These extreme events can disturb and alter ecosystems over timescales ranging from minutes to months. However, the recovery and adaptation processes often take far longer than the extreme events. While the intensity of adaptation efforts may vary, they inevitably follow disturbances.
Here, we focus on the recovery dynamics of vegetation in different types of ecosystems after droughts and heat waves, which are the most damaging types of weather extremes. The study covers the last decades period and is based on satellite data.
Disturbance-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems affect photosynthetic activity, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) fixation. We hypothesise that, in return, the temporal dynamics of atmospheric CO2 fixation by vegetation may indicate different stages of ecosystem recovery - normal ecosystem state (before extreme), imbalance phase, post-extreme phase, recovery phase, or collapse. We find such an approach helpful for understanding the time frames of the phases and capturing phase transitions and general ecosystem states in near real-time.
The identification of vegetation recovery stages is influenced by several factors, including environmental conditions and seasonal cyclicity. To ensure the effectiveness of an automated approach, a unified phase-stage representation for comparability and analysis of CO2 uptake is required.
To achieve this, we divide daily CO2 uptake values by their maximum values observed during a year without significant droughts and heatwaves. We have chosen the observation period from 1993 to 2005, which includes a European drought in 2003 and the periods before and after it. As a result of normalisation, stronger ecosystem recovery will correspond to values around “1” and weaker recovery - to a range around “0”. Negative values could indicate the dominance of CO2 emissions or ecosystem degradation processes.
Vegetation indices, such as NDVI, can be employed as markers of transformation scope to identify the beginning and end of the vegetation growth period activity. This allows us to represent the time scale in a normalised relative interval – [0;1].
The results are a first step towards a normalised representation of the response of terrestrial vegetation to further study the dynamics of its recovery from extreme weather events.
How to cite: Savytska, Y., Smolii, V., and Rehfeld, K.: Normalised representation of terrestrial vegetation response to extreme weather events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5124, 2025.
Over the last decade, several extreme weather events contributed to considerable loss and degradation of forest ecosystems throughout central Europe [1]. For future forest protection an in-depth understanding of these disturbances and their interactions is crucial to target the transformation and adaptation of forests [2]. The vulnerability of forest stands to disturbances is determined by the interaction of a large number of environmental influences and their characteristics. The influencing variables are interrelated at multiple dimensions and scales [3]. Due to the complexity of cause-effect relationships in forest ecosystems and the multitude of factors involved, stress response of forests and trees has not been fully decoded as yet and hence remains a research topic of growing importance for climate adaptation [4].
The recording of small-scale ecological phenomena and their dynamics requires spatially and temporally continuous high-resolution data to retrieve explicit information, which cannot fully be covered by current terrestrial monitoring networks e.g., the ICP Forests crown conditions survey or national forest inventories. The combination of satellite time series analysis and change detection algorithms can detect forest vitality changes across time and space at a high resolution in order to extract disturbance signatures with event-specific patterns from phenological time series [5].
In this study, we use forest disturbance recordings of forest fires, storm damage, and forest defoliation or dieback induced by insects, fungal pathogens, or drought from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), the Database of wind disturbances in European forest (FORWIND), the Database of European Forest Insect & Disease Disturbances (DEFIS2), and the Global Drought Observatory (GDO) as well as MODIS phenological time series ranging from 2001 to 2023 to gather disturbance sequences and compile a pan-European disturbance interaction chronology map in order to identify forest disturbance hotspots in Europe, extract disturbance interaction related signatures from phenological time series and quantify the interaction effects in terms of disturbance specific changes in forest vitality over space and time.
References:
[1] Patacca, M, Lindner, M, Lucas‐Borja, ME, Cordonnier, T, Fidej, G, Gardiner, B, ... & Schelhaas, MJ (2023). Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950. Global change biology, 29(5), 1359-1376. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16531
[2] Bolte, A, Ammer, C, Löf, M, Madsen, P, Nabuurs, GJ, Schall, P, ... & Rock, J (2009). Adaptive forest management in central Europe: climate change impacts, strategies and integrative concept. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 24(6), 473-482. https://doi.org/10.1080/02827580903418224
[3] Sanders, TGM, Spathelf, P, & Bolte, A (2019). The response of forest trees to abiotic stress. In Achieving sustainable management of boreal and temperate forests (pp. 99-128). Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing. DOI:10.19103/AS.2019.0057.05
[4] Ammer, C, Fichtner, A, Fischer, A, Gossner, MM, Meyer, P, Seidl, R, ... & Wagner, S (2018). Key ecological research questions for Central European forests. Basic and Applied Ecology, 32, 3-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2018.07.006
[5] Gnilke, A, & Sanders, TGM (2022). Distinguishing abrupt and gradual forest disturbances with MODIS-based phenological anomaly series. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, 863116. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.863116
How to cite: Gnilke, A., Stadelmann, C., and Sanders, T.: Disentangling multi-event forest disturbances and interaction effects using pan-European records and satellite-based phenological time series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6299, 2025.
Climate change is responsible for the increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events, including windstorms, which are expected to cause greater damage to both natural and human resources. In European forests, wind damage is already the first cause of timber loss. Additionally, in the Alps context forests provide protection against gravitational hazards, a function that could be completely or partially compromised in case of wind damage. Thus, identifying the most wind-vulnerable forests is crucial to actively manage them and possibly increase their resistance to such events.
To address this challenge, various physically and statistically based models have been developed to estimate forest vulnerability to windstorms. Such models consider both stand and single tree parameters to derive the critical wind speed (CWS), defined as the wind speed threshold above which damage is likely to occur. While the CWS quantifies the forest wind vulnerability, assessing the probability of forest damages requires the probability of occurrence of a given windstorm event. Moreover, the latter could be influenced by climate change given that the regime of windstorm events is expected to change in the future.
In this study, we assess the forest wind vulnerability of the Rocca Pietore municipality area, using high-resolution LiDAR data to extract detailed stand and individual tree characteristics. These data are input into the semi-mechanistic ForestGALES model to calculate the CWS. The probability and the magnitude of wind damages are calculated using km-scale Convection Permitting Models (CPMs) from CORDEX-FPS on Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean (FPS Convection). Specifically, we used wind data from the CPMs ensemble for both historical and future conditions. The study shows the critical maps of likelihood of forest wind damages under current conditions and the future scenario RCP8.5, highlighting changes across the study region and identifying the more exposed areas.
This study underscores the importance of integrating high-resolution forest and climate data to assess the vulnerability of natural resources against windstorms. By combining detailed forest characteristic data with advanced climate projections, the adopted approach provides valuable insights for forest management and climate adaptation planning.
How to cite: Baggio, T., Fosser, G., and Lingua, E.: Assessing future wind vulnerability of mountain forests using high-resolution remote sensed and climate data: a pilot study in the Italian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8452, 2025.
In recent years, frequent dry and hot summer periods in Central Europe have caused irreversible damages to many forest ecosystems. The consequences are widespread tree mortality, including forest ecosystems in the Upper Rhine Valley. We compare two management responses to a highly impacted, mature Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantation in the Upper Rhine Valley at the ICOS Site DE-Har by assessing annual and seasonal carbon fluxes in the first seven years following the management response.
At the non-invasively managed site, >60% of all former Pinus sylvestris trees died since 2018 and consequently the canopy opened up considerably. Dead and fallen trees were generally not removed. The site has undergone a significant regime change in which increased sunlight under the damaged/missing tree crowns has accelerated growth of a deciduous understory (mainly Tilia cordata, Carpinus betulus, and Fagus sylvatica among others). At the clear-cut site, all Pinus sylvestris trees were fully removed in autumn 2017, and new saplings consisting of various broad-leaf trees, more suited for hot and dry weather conditions (including Acer platanoids, Corlyus colurna, Carpinus betulus), were planted in spring 2018 and 2019. Due to extreme drought, almost all of the saplings died shortly after they were planted and the area now consists of grasses, shrubs and a few deciduous trees.
We use concurrent eddy covariance measurements at the non-invasively managed site since 2019 and at the clear-cut site since 2021 to quantify the effect of the two management responses on net CO2 fluxes and partitioned gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). On average over the period from 2019 to 2024, the non-invasively managed site has been a small CO2 source (NEE = +75 g C m-2 year-1), compared to 20 years ago, when the mostly healthy forest was still a considerable CO2 sink. Typically, the non-invasively managed site is a CO2 source during winter and autumn and a CO2 sink in spring and summer, except for the hot and dry summer of 2022. On average over the period from 2021 to 2024, the clear-cut site has been a substantial CO2 source (NEE = +460 g C m-2 year-1), mainly because of higher values of Reco. The NEE data of the clear-cut site also show a yearly cycle, with higher values in winter and autumn and lower values in spring and summer, nevertheless the clear-cut site was a CO2 source in all seasons during the last four years. The highest annual NEE values at both sites can be found in the hot and dry year 2022. Seven years after the clear-cut, both sites are still CO2 sources and it is uncertain whether and when either of these sites will become a CO2 sink.
How to cite: Sulzer, M., Haberstroh, S., Plapp, T., Seifert, T., Schindler, D., Werner, C., and Christen, A.: Assessing carbon fluxes following non-invasive and clear-cut management responses to widespread drought mortality of a Scots Pine plantation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17497, 2025.
The first comprehensive investigation into the ecological effects of lightning revealed that it is a major driver of tropical plant mortality, gap formation, and biomass carbon turnover in a mature tropical forest. These findings demonstrated the capacity of lightning to influence forest dynamics, but those data are restricted to a single mature forest at a spatial scale (~15 km2) that is much smaller than the scale at which the atmospheric processes controlling lightning operate (10s to 100s of km). Given evidence that lightning and severe storm frequency is increasing with climate change, we need large-scale studies of lightning effects across multiple forest types to understand the future forest dynamics and carbon budgets. Here we present the results from the first regional study of lightning ecology, wherein we use an array of electric field change meters (FCMs) to track lightning strikes in real-time over 20,000 km2 in central Panama. This network provides direct measurements of each strike’s intensity with high detection efficiency and a precision accuracy of < 30 m. The ecological effects of these lightning strikes were quantified using subsequent field surveys, validated at medium-scales (15 km2) using drone imagery, and upscaled to quantify regional disturbance regimes by integrating the FCM, drone, and field data.
This is the first spatially-explicit record of a regional disturbance regime for any given driver of tree mortality in a tropical forest. We show that lightning exhibits strong patterns of spatiotemporal aggregation. Based on these patterns, we estimate the study area and duration needed to accurately capture the contributions of lightning to plant mortality and biomass carbon dynamics, which is much larger than a typical forest plot (1 ha) and longer than a typical study time-frame for this size plot (10 years). Using field data describing the ecological effects of lightning, we then estimate the absolute contributions of lightning to biomass carbon turnover across the study regions, including 8,000 km2 of tropical forest. We then test if regional patterns of lightning-caused disturbance predict regional variation in forest structure and carbon storage. We expect our findings will be key to more accurate carbon accounting and the development of mechanistic demographic vegetation models.
How to cite: McGregor, I., Burchfield, J. C., Gutierrez, C., Chmielewski, M. W., Muller-Landau, H. C., Bitzer, P. M., Yanoviak, S. P., and Gora, E. M.: Assessing the impact of lightning on regional disturbance regimes across a tropical forest gradient, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4388, 2025.
The European “Floods” Directive requires river basin district authorities to identify flood prone areas and potential adverse consequences on built and natural environments. However, there are few examples of methods to assess flood impact to environment at the spatial scale of river basin districts. Moreover, the lack of data concerning the environmental impacts occurred during past floods constrains their identification as well as the definition of empirical vulnerability models.
This work examines the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy), through the collection, analysis and georeferencing of information available on newspaper and social media after the event. The analysis highlights that damage to natural ecosystems is often overlooked compared to direct economic losses. The floods caused significant harm, including the release of pollutants, destruction of natural habitats, and disruption of ecosystem services. The most affected areas were water resources, aquatic ecosystems, and terrestrial habitats, with primary effects such as pollution, submersion, and erosion. Specific damages included bathing bans due to water contamination, interruption of bird nesting, fish and bivalve deaths, and alterations in coastal ecosystems. The impacts were spatially concentrated in coastal areas and river deltas, with temporal variability. Some effects, like bathing bans, were resolved within 30-45 days, while others, such as nesting disruption and soil contamination, had longer-term consequences. Assessing these impacts remains challenging due to the lack of systematic monitoring and shared methodologies. Natural resilience dynamics and indirect effects, including health and economic consequences, are also poorly understood. We conclude that a greater interdisciplinary focus is needed to understand and integrate environmental impacts into flood risk management. Future research should address specific ecosystem vulnerabilities and develop metrics for assessing damage based on ecosystem services.
Reference: Arrighi, C. and Domeneghetti, A.: Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024.
Acknowledgements: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)
How to cite: Domeneghetti, A. and Arrighi, C.: Environmental impacts of a flood: an overlooked problem - Evidences from the 2023 Italian floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10528, 2025.
The effects of tropical cyclones on phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the coastal ocean vary with storm characteristics (i.e., wind v. runoff) and with prior conditions of the ecosystem (i.e., stratified v. well-mixed water column). A recent meta-analysis suggests that phytoplankton are sensitive to rainfall delivered to coastal ecosystems and show tradeoffs between resistance and resilience to these pulse disturbance events. Since 2019, monthly sampling data has been collected at 2 nearshore estuarine sites along the south-central Louisiana coast for water quality, phytoplankton biomass, and community composition. Since 2022, data has been collected from 5 estuarine sites via continuous sondes measuring abiotic variables (including nitrate at 1 site) and biomass of total phytoplankton (as chlorophyll-a) and freshwater cyanobacteria (as phycocyanin) every 15 minutes. Eleven named tropical cyclone systems have impacted the Louisiana coast since 2019, while additional flood (2019), unnamed storm (2024), and drought (2023) events also occurred. In 2024, Hurricane Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish. In the 1-2 days around landfall, a site 120 miles west showed a substantial, but temporary, increase in biomass. Conversely, a site 160 miles east showed little change during the storm, but biomass increased one week after landfall as falling salinity indicated runoff. Insights from individual pulse disturbances on phytoplankton dynamics, along with aggregated responses to disturbance characteristics, will be further discussed in this presentation.
How to cite: Stauffer, B., Piwowarski, E., Lombardi, M., and Perry, S.: Phytoplankton responses to tropical cyclone events: insights from discrete and continuous water quality monitoring in Louisiana estuaries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14460, 2025.
Climate change is intensifying extreme climate events, fundamentally altering ecosystem disturbance regimes. Impacts on biodiversity are typically assessed using climate model outputs (i.e., temperature, precipitation) or by focusing on one type of extreme event. For this study, we used a new dataset covering four climate extremes (droughts, heatwaves, river floods, and wildfires) derived from the output of five climate models and six climate impact models for future projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP Phase 3b). We assessed the exposure of 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species (amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles). We also compiled published evidence on how species respond to extreme events. Heatwaves emerged as the most prevalent threat, with over 70% of species' geographic ranges projected to be exposed by 2050 (SSP3-7.0 scenario) - a 60% increase from 2000 levels. More than 21,000 species face heatwave exposure in 75% of their range. Wildfire exposure is projected to affect more than 20% of species ranges by 2050, increasing to 30% by 2085, with more than 5,000 species exposed in 50% of their range by mid-century. Notably, our findings indicate substantial multi-hazard exposure, with approximately 30% of species’ geographic ranges facing at least two types of extreme events by 2050. Hotspots are species-rich areas in the tropics. More than 70 species, mostly amphibians and reptiles, are projected to be exposed to a high frequency of three types of events over 75% of their range. Most of these species already have declining populations and are listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Our study highlights the importance of studying the impacts of extreme events on biodiversity in a multi-hazard context. The combination of high exposure with documented negative impacts - such as heat stress mortality, reproductive failure, or wildfire injury – is of particular concern for already threatened species. This underscores the urgency of developing targeted interventions for vulnerable species.
How to cite: Heinicke, S., Zantout, K., Kühl, H. S., Reyer, C. P. O., Zimmermann, S., Billing, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hantson, S., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Koutroulis, A., Mester, B., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Otta, K., Pokhrel, Y., and Frieler, K.: Projected exposure of terrestrial vertebrates to different extreme climate events reveals high vulnerability to multiple hazards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5866, 2025.
Climate change has significant impacts on the structure and stability of terrestrial ecosystems. China has implemented several restoration projects since the mid-20th century and has experienced a substantial greening trend under climate change. However, the assessment and evaluation of the ecosystem vulnerability in China remains limited. Here, we evaluated the characteristics of ecosystem vulnerability from 1982 to 2020 in China in terms of its exposure, sensitivity, and resilience based on a multiple auto-regression approach. We analyzed the drivers and mechanisms of ecosystem vulnerability from multiple perspectives in different land cover types and climate zones. The results show that ecosystem vulnerability follows a similar spatial pattern to the exposure risk, especially in the eastern plains where the flat topography leads to the relatively higher climate risk. The agro-pastoral ecotone shows relatively high vulnerability due to higher exposure and sensitivity to climate change. The terrestrial ecosystem becomes more vulnerable to climate change when warming rates exceeding 0.04 oC/a and precipitation decrease for more than -5 mm/a. For different land cover types, croplands and forests show relatively high vulnerability and are attributed mostly to exposure and sensitivity respectively. Although grasslands show medium vulnerability on average, their sensitivity to climate change shows greater spatial variation. The transition zone between semi-arid and sub-humid climates is more vulnerable to climate change, but the humid region displays lower exposure and sensitivity because of sufficient water supply hence low sensitivity to precipitation change. Higher variability in temperature and precipitation in high-exposure and high-sensitivity areas compared to low-exposure and low-sensitivity areas, but higher variability in NDVI is mainly found in low-resilience areas. This study contributes to the understanding of terrestrial ecosystem vulnerability in China and highlights the urgency of climate mitigation actions.
How to cite: Yuan, W., Mu, S., and Wu, S.-Y.: Vulnerability of the terrestrial ecosystem to climate change in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3177, 2025.
Biodiversity and ecosystems monitoring and services evaluation are part of all major European and international policy making initiatives and actions, the GEO BON, UN SDGs and the EU green deal are probably the most important. Following the prepare-design-demonstrate approach of the EU climate change adaptation mission, after the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services process (MAES) implementation in Romania by our team through project Demonstrating and promoting natural values in support of decision-making processes in Romania - Nature4Decision-Making - N4D, we have focused on developing a set of remote sensing based indicators for assessing ecological conditions adapted to ecosystems, for five study cases one for each biogeographical region in Romania (alpine, continental, steppe, panonic, marine Black Sea). The analysis was performed in respect of the general objective of Exploitation of Satellite Earth Observation data for Natural Capital Accounting and Biodiversity Management - EO4NATURE project, to develop state-of-the-art concepts and standardized methods for addressing environmental challenges related to climate change. The specific objectives directly address the goals related to the Horizon EU mission like answering the ecosystem monitoring needs by integrating Copernicus Sentinel and other satellite data for deriving useful information for ecosystem assessment (ecosystem condition, ecosystem services). The developed framework can be used for a large amount of past, present and future EO data organized in data cubes to evaluate time series of indicators variability and to conclude for physical, chemical, composition, structural, functional and inter-ecosystemic states to express the vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems. The obtained results from EO4NATURE are part of main scientific and research initiative from Romania based on Competence Center for Climate Change Digital Twin Earth for forecasts and societal redressment: DTEClimate.
How to cite: Bodescu, F., Marculescu, S., Radu, I., Dediu, F., Bodescu, I. T., and Radutu, A.: Digital twin technology used for assessment of ecosystems state in a climate change conditions in Romania, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3495, 2025.
Ecological restoration, as a component of sustainable development, can mitigate ecosystem degradation and improve ecological diversity. Accurate identification of ecological restoration priority areas (ERPAs) is essential for developing restoration practice. However, few studies have considered both ecosystem reference conditions and vulnerability during ecological restoration. In this study, a comprehensive framework of ERPA identification was developed by integrating ecosystem reference conditions and vulnerability. Using the Jialing River Basin (JRB), a representative basin of the Yangtze River, as a case study, our results revealed that under average climate conditions, the areas with high values of ecosystem reference conditions were mostly in the eastern and southeastern mountainous areas of the JRB, whereas the potential areas for ecological restoration were concentrated in the central northern and southern basin. Additionally, regions with high ecosystem vulnerability were found in the northern mountainous areas and southern urban areas and were scattered along major tributaries. Overall, the identified ERPAs were predominantly in the central northern and southern urban areas, with some scattered areas in the central basin, accounting for 9.61% of the JRB. Consequently, the JRB can be divided into four regions with targeted management strategies to address ecosystem degradation and implement restoration activities. Moreover, we suggest that the proposed framework for identifying ERPAs is used for clarifying restoration objectives, assessing the ecological baseline, and offering a scientific reference for large-scale ecological restoration efforts.
How to cite: Wang, H., Zhao, Z., and Wu, X.: Integrating ecosystem reference conditions and vulnerability to identify ecological restoration priority areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5527, 2025.
The stability of agricultural production, critical for global food security, is increasingly threatened by climate variability and extreme weather events. This study focuses on identifying and evaluating climate-induced stress thresholds for potato yields in Finland and the Netherlands, two regions with contrasting climatic and agronomic conditions. A comprehensive dataset spanning multiple decades was analyzed using advanced machine learning techniques, including Random Forest modeling, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values for feature importance, and Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) to detect key climate indicators and their thresholds. By classifying yields into shocked, normal, and boosted categories based on detrended yield percentiles, the study pinpoints the specific climatic conditions that transition potato yields into stress states. District-level analyses highlight spatial variations, with northern Finland and southern Netherlands particularly sensitive to compound climatic extremes, emphasizing the need for localized adaptation strategies. Findings reveal distinct regional stressors: in Finland, excessive June precipitation (>69 mm) consistently emerged as a critical driver of yield reductions, while in the Netherlands, extreme July temperatures (>31.5°C) and deviations in warm-day counts were the dominant stressors. This research is the first to identify climate-induced stress thresholds by accounting for the nonlinear and interactive effects of multiple climate factors. The findings provide actionable thresholds for policymakers and farmers, enhancing climate resilience and ensuring sustainable agricultural practices under future climate scenarios.
How to cite: Saboori, M., Naghdyzadegan, M., Patro, R., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: A novel Approach For Automatically Identifying and Evaluating Climate Stress Thresholds in Potato Yields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5795, 2025.
Intensified water stress driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming plays a pivotal role in regulating terrestrial vegetation growth across arid-to-humid transition zones, with significant implications for the global carbon cycle. However, the shifting sensitivity of the vegetation productivity to a warming climate remain poorly understood. Since the early 2000s, Northern East Asia (NEA) has experienced pronounced reductions in gross primary production (GPP), primarily attributed to notable soil moisture (SM) decreases and water vapor deficit (VPD) increases. Our findings demonstrate distinct ecosystem responses along aridity gradients: vegetation growth in arid regions is predominantly influenced by SM, while VPD exerts a stronger influence in semi-arid to humid zones under warming and drying conditions. These results highlight the complex and regionally varied responses of vegetation dynamics across aridity gradients. As climate variability intensifies and drylands expand, understanding these sensitivities becomes essential for predicting ecosystem vulnerability and assessing vegetation responses to future climate scenarios.
How to cite: Wang, Z.: Aridification enhancing vegetation sensitivities to soil and atmospheric dryness in northern East Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7667, 2025.
Grasslands are vital ice-free ecosystems that provide essential ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity preservation, and pollination. However, these systems face significant threats from rising temperatures and reduced precipitation, necessitating a deeper understanding of their dynamics to inform sustainable management. This study investigates the potential changes in grassland biomass under future climate scenarios, offering insights into long-term trends and adaptive strategies.
The study focuses on grasslands in the Community of Madrid, central Spain, covering approximately 41% of the territory. To analyze biomass variations, we established a 5x5 km grid across the region, selecting research areas based on proximity to soil pits and a minimum grassland coverage of 40% per grid cell. Observational climate data (1975–2021) and future projections (2022–2100) were used, derived from SSP-2.6, SSP-4.5, SSP-7.0 and SSP-8.5 scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
Biomass calculations are estimated using the SIMPAST model. This model, designed to predict biomass under varying climatic conditions, required inputs such as hydrological balance, solar radiation, and an initial seed count. Vegetation species and biomass measurements are being conducted from September to May 2024–2025 to refine and evaluate model accuracy and assess water use efficiency across the three study areas.
Preliminary results reveal significant spatiotemporal variations in grassland biomass, linked to projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive management strategies tailored to specific climate scenarios to maintain grassland ecosystem services.
Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the support of Project “Garantía Juvenil” scholarship from Comunidad de Madrid, as well as Universidad Politécnica project Clasificación de Pastizales Mediante Métodos Supervisados - SANTO (project number: RP220220C024).
How to cite: Aragón Pizarro, M., Díaz-Ambrona, C. G. H., Tarquis, A. M., Almeida-Ñauñay, A. F., and Sanz, E.: Modelling Biomass Projections in Grasslands of Central Spain Under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10928, 2025.
The stability of managed land systems is increasingly threatened by the rising frequency and severity of extreme events caused by climate change. To maintain productivity and adapt to these changing conditions, these systems must build resilience to adverse impacts. Detecting and understanding the effects of such events is essential for assessing the effectiveness of different management strategies in promoting ecosystem resilience.
In this study, we identify extreme events using model- and observation-based Gross Primary Production (GPP) data. To identify these extremes, the GPP anomalies are calculated and then a statistical technique is used to identify extreme events. Using statistical methods including regression models, the most relevant events are then attributed to meteorological drivers, such as temperature and precipitation. Based on these results, we define a stability measure rooted in the recovery time after an extreme event. This approach is applied to three scenarios: (1) a control experiment considering only GPP influenced by climate, (2) GPP influenced by both climate and land use/land change in single cropping areas, and (3) GPP in multiple cropping areas.
These results will help us contrast whether management strategies can mitigate the impacts of extreme events, and identify which types of events and areas may benefit most from potential targeted interventions to increase ecosystem resilience.
How to cite: Rodriguez, M., Waha, K., and Buermann, W.: Quantifying ecosystem resilience to extreme events: a comparison of single and multiple cropping systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16241, 2025.
Monsoon rains trigger pulsed flows from tributaries, which in turn impact the structure of riverine food webs. However, the mechanisms driving food web dynamics in tributaries in response to these pulsed flows are not yet fully understood. We employed carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotopes of macroinvertebrates and fish to quantify changes in the trophic base and diversity, food chain length, and food web trophic niches before and after the monsoon in two tributaries of the northeast Asian monsoon region. The δ13C and δ15N values of primary basal resources (leaf litter and biofilms) were consistent before and after the monsoon, with a notable increase in δ15N values from forest streams to agricultural channels. Consumer δ13C and δ15N values remained stable over time but exhibited a longitudinal increase due to greater nutritional contributions from local resources. Community isotopic niche metrics were consistent across locations and seasons, while trophic niches diverged between watersheds and closely overlapped seasonally in isotopic space. These results highlight the significant impact of agricultural inputs on downstream channel food webs and demonstrate the limited effect of monsoonal rains on altering the longitudinal trajectory of trophic niches across tributaries.
How to cite: Kang, H. Y. and Kang, C.-K.: Longitudinal trends in a community trophic niche in temperate tributaries across forested and agricultural watersheds pre- and post-monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20177, 2025.
Wetlands are complex ecosystems that sustain livelihoods and provide diverse ecological services, making them exceptionally susceptible to climate change. This study evaluates the vulnerability of Deepor Beel, a Ramsar site in Northeast India, and identifies key assets for conservation. Five target assets were selected based on their representation of the wetland, significance for ecological processes, potential threat to Ramsar status, and sensitivity to change. These assets are the catchment and its hydrological regime, migratory birds, aquatic vegetation, fisheries, and tourism. The vulnerability assessment was based on climate data, obtained from CMIP6 GCMs. Twelve GCM models were downscaled and bias-corrected using the Inverse Distance Weighting method and linear scaling for Deepor Beel's most degraded watershed. A Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach and rating metric determined the overall rank of each GCM. Multi-model ensembles, employing the random forest algorithm, were used for climate projections from the top five GCMs. The projections indicated a relative increase in rainfall during the monsoon (June-September) and a decrease during winter (October-January). Additionally, a decrease in temperature was observed during the monsoon and pre-monsoon (February-May) periods, while an increase was noted during winters. A comprehensive questionnaire survey was conducted to assess the sensitivity and exposure of assets to climate threats, allowing impact calculations using an impact scoring matrix. The adaptive capacity was similarly assessed to determine vulnerability using a vulnerability scoring matrix. Migratory birds were found highly vulnerable during future monsoon and winter periods. These findings will help decision-makers preserve assets critical to maintaining Deepor Beel's Ramsar status.
Keywords: Ramsar Wetland, vulnerability, Multicriteria Decision-Making, CMIP6 Global Circulation Model (GCM)
How to cite: Baishya, B. and Sarma, A. K.: Vulnerability assessment of the Deepor Beel, a Ramsar wetland in Northeast India, to changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20573, 2025.
Climate models project increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean Basin, increasing the threat to Mediterranean ecosystems. The lack of water may result in plant wilting and cavitation, reduced resistance to disease and pests, stronger competition between species, and increased wildfire frequency, among many other ecological processes that might be affected. Water-limited ecosystems, like those in the Mediterranean Basin, although adapted to water scarcity, may be particularly vulnerable to extreme droughts.
The objective of this research is to examine the impact of drought regimes on the response and resilience of Mediterranean ecosystems. We expect to detect a nonlinear relationship between drought regimes and vegetation response as successive drought events cumulate on stronger impacts on ecosystem resilience. To test this hypothesis, we employed an event-based approach to drought regime analysis, for which at each event we measured duration, intensity, severity, and time since the last event as drought attributes. Droughts are detected using the Standardized Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) at different time scales (3, 6 and 12 months), with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data retrieved from global downscaled re-analyses of the CHELSA database. We have analyzed the response of vegetation to drought events by extracting the temporal components of resistance, recovery, and resilience. The vegetation response is evaluated using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Near-infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRV) spectral indices from the MODIS multispectral sensor as proxies of vegetation functioning.
We examined the 2001-2018 time series for several ecoregions in the Mediterranean Basin to detect the functional shape of the vegetation response curve for this region. Our preliminary results suggest that vegetation response components and drought regime attributes can characterize different aspects of the two variables. Furthermore, the distribution of the vegetation response over drought regimes exhibits multimodal patterns, thereby supporting the hypothesis of a nonlinear relationship. This suggests that the drought response modelling approach used is challenging but promising.
How to cite: Torrassa, M., Baudena, M., Cremonese, E., and Santos, M. J.: Vegetation response components to drought regimes attributes in the Mediterranean Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18303, 2025.
Projected increases in both frequency and intensity of heatwaves during the 21st century pose significant risks to terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, the extent to which these heatwaves threaten peak vegetation productivity, a fundamental driver of terrestrial carbon uptake, remains largely unknow. Here, we used sun-induced fluorescence, a proxy of vegetation productivity, to find all peaks in the vegetation growth during 2001 to 2018 and employed daily maximum temperature to detect spatiotemporal contiguous heatwaves. The study revealed vegetation growth peaked in summer across 86.06% of the Northern Hemisphere and 58.25% of the Southern Hemispheare, with 32.25% of global vegetated areas experiencing heatwaves every year. The temporal dynamics analysis showed that the global advance of vegetation growth peak (48.33%) and the increase of heatwave days (42.67%) both presented large spatial heterogeneity. We found that over half of the global vegetated areas (52.16%) experienced at least one peak of vegetation growth exposed to heatwaves, with the total affected area expanding by approximately 72,700 km² per year. The response of peak growth to heatwave depended on the background climate. These findings highlight the intensifying risk of heatwaves to global vegetation productivity, with potentially severe consequences for land carbon uptake and the resilience of ecosystems to climate change.
How to cite: Tu, Z., Xia, J., Ping, J., You, C., and Xia, X.: Rising summer heatwave exposure of global peak vegetation productivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11659, 2025.
Posters virtual: Fri, 2 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-16432 | Posters virtual | VPS30
A comparative study of the dendroclimatic potential of selected tree species of the tropical dry and wet woodlands of ZambiaFri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.13
Environmental challenges have had a negative impact on African forest resources, which has subsequently adversely affected some ecosystem services that are required for the survival of people. We conducted a comparative study in the wet and dry woodlands in Zambia to establish the formation of tree growth rings and determine the relationship between the growth ring width and rainfall. Through the four successful Africa Dendrochronological Fieldschools that were conducted from 2021 to 2024, we collected samples from the wet miombo woodlands on the copperbelt province and the dry miombo and Baikiaea woodlands on the southern province of Zambia. From 2021 to 2023, we recorded 49 tree species from the wet miombo woodlands and found that the Fabaceae family plants had the highest species richness with 28.5%. We determined a series intercorrelation of 0.45 and average mean sensitivity of 0.465 from a master chronology of 14 tree species. The dendroclimatic study found a significant positive relationship (r-value =0.589, p-value = 0.0005) between ring width of a mixed species chronology of Brchaystegia longifolia and Julbernadia paniculata, and precipitation totals for Zambia’s wet season (October–April). In 2024, studies were conducted in the dry miombo and Baikiaea woodlands. Through this study, 16 distinct species were identified in the Baikiaea woodlands with Baikiaea plurijuga being the abundant species. We determined series intercorrelation of 0.31 and an average mean sensitivity of 0.50 from a mixed tree species from the Baikiaea woodlands. A precipitation correlation with Brachytegia longifolia from the miombo woodlands found that previous December and Current March precipitation have positive influence on tree growth. In both, dry and wet woodlands, we found that trees produce annual growth rings that are responsive to seasonal climate, and are useful for dendrochronology
How to cite: Ngoma, J. and the Justine Ngoma: A comparative study of the dendroclimatic potential of selected tree species of the tropical dry and wet woodlands of Zambia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16432, 2025.
EGU25-15239 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS30
Leveraging Geospatial Techniques to Appraise the Potential Implications on Vulnerable GLOF Sites in High Mountain Asia: A Case Study of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Northern PakistanFri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.18
The ongoing deglaciation driven by global warming and climate change has led to the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events including heatwave, cold wave, flash floods, cloud burst, GLOFs, etc. This resulted in the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes, particularly in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Many of these lakes are at high risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which can release millions of cubic meters of water and debris, causing extensive damage to lives, property, infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods in remote and economically vulnerable downstream communities in Pakistan. This study focuses on Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) in Northern Pakistan to assess GLOF risk using multi-source data. Several vulnerable sites from the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s GLOF inventory were analyzed, seven of which are highly susceptible to GLOFs. A spatio-temporal analysis of these sites considered critical factors such as lake area and volume changes, elevation, slope, aspect, temperature and precipitation patterns, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, glacier and snow cover loss, proximity to fault lines, and impact zones through geospatial techniques, GIS analysis and cloud computing Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Results indicate a significant decline in snow and glacier cover, coupled with an increase in land surface temperatures (LST), contributing to accelerated melting and heightened GLOF and flash flood occurrences. The study also estimates potential impacts on population, infrastructure, schools, forests, agriculture, and water quality in the Neelum Valley of AJK. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and disaster management authorities to devise targeted and effective risk mitigation strategies.
How to cite: Fatim Ali, S. S., Hussain Shah, S. W., and Rehman, S.: Leveraging Geospatial Techniques to Appraise the Potential Implications on Vulnerable GLOF Sites in High Mountain Asia: A Case Study of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Northern Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15239, 2025.
EGU25-18927 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS30
Climate Change Impacts in the Transboundary Prespa-Ohrid watershed. (The strategic impact identified in the SWOT analysis)Fri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.20
Abstract
Climate Change Impacts in the Transboundary Prespa-Ohrid watershed.
(The strategic impact identified in the SWOT analysis)
Brisilda Stafa1; Emanuela Kiri1
1 Institute of Geosciences, UPT, Tirana, Albania.
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on open surface water in the transboundary Prespa-Ohrid Lake area using a SWOT analysis based on lake level and meteorological data. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased evaporation rates have been identified as critical factors influencing water levels, particularly in Prespa Lake. The SWOT framework helps in systematically evaluating the internal strengths and weaknesses of the region’s hydrological systems and external opportunities and threats posed by climate change.
Strengths include the availability of long-term lake level and meteorological data, which provide a robust foundation for assessing climate impacts and water management strategies. Weaknesses highlight the vulnerability of shallow lakes like Prespa to evaporation and reduced inflows, compounded by inconsistent monitoring across national borders. Opportunities lie in the potential for enhanced regional cooperation, ecosystem-based adaptation, and the development of sustainable water management policies that account for climate variability. However, the region faces significant Threats, including further reductions in water availability, degradation of water quality, loss of biodiversity, and socio-economic impacts on agriculture and tourism.
The study emphasizes the need for transboundary cooperation and adaptive strategies to mitigate these risks, with a focus on integrating climate and water data to guide future decision-making in the region.
Keywords: climate change, transboundary watershed, SWOT analysis, socio–economic impact.
How to cite: Stafa, B. and Kiri, E.: Climate Change Impacts in the Transboundary Prespa-Ohrid watershed. (The strategic impact identified in the SWOT analysis), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18927, 2025.
