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Orals

UP1.1

Weather prediction has improved tremendously over the last decades. Ultimately, however, there are limits in predictability due to the multi-scale, non-linear nature of atmospheric dynamics.
To further improve our mechanistic understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to further improve numerical weather forecasting it is increasingly important to better understand the physical and dynamical processes connecting atmospheric motions across temporal and spatial scales. This includes, for example, the identification of the limits of predictability of different weather systems. For longer time scales, identifying and understanding sources of predictability and variability is of crucial importance. This session will therefore discuss the current understanding of physical and dynamical processes determining predictability and variability on different scales.

Contributions are invited that attempt to improve our understanding of atmospheric dynamics or that link process-based, dynamical understanding and predictability aspects. Atmospheric phenomena on all spatial and temporal scales are of interest. Particularly welcome are contributions that focus on high-impact weather, the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale, and related extremes. This may include, but is not limited to, the influence of remote factors (e.g., the stratosphere, the Artic, or the tropics) on the midlatitudes, predictability in the tropics and polar regions, stationary and recurrent systems (e.g. associated with heat waves, cyclone clustering, heavy precipitation), or processes driving seasonal or interannual variability.

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Convener: Sebastian Schemm | Co-Conveners: Christian M. Grams, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Michael Riemer
Orals
| Thu, 12 Sep, 10:30–15:30|Oticon Hall
Posters
| Attendance Fri, 13 Sep, 10:30–11:30 | Display Wed, 11 Sep, 13:30–Fri, 13 Sep, 13:30|Sports Hall

Thursday, 12 September 2019 | Oticon Hall

Chairperson: 16890
10:30–10:45 |
EMS2019-560
Kristian Strommen and Tim Palmer
Chairperson: 16890
Chairperson: 16890
Chairperson: 16890
Chairperson: 16890
Chairperson: 16890
11:45–12:00 |
EMS2019-775
Davide Faranda, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Gabriele Messori, David Rodrigues, and Pascal Yiou
Chairperson: 16890
12:00–12:15 |
EMS2019-493
Stefan Sobolowski, Camille Li, Lilan Chen, and Fumiaki Ogawa
Chairperson: 16890
12:15–12:30 |
EMS2019-310
Fei Zheng, Hao Luo, Noel Keenlyside, and Jiang Zhu
Lunch break
Chairperson: 16891
13:30–14:00 |
EMS2019-274
| solicited
Linus Magnusson
Chairperson: 16891
14:00–14:15 |
EMS2019-624
| solicited
Georgios Fragkoulidis and Volkmar Wirth
Chairperson: 16891
14:15–14:30 |
EMS2019-345
Zuowei Xie, Robert Black, and Yi Deng
Chairperson: 16891
14:30–14:45 |
EMS2019-700
Philipp Zschenderlein, Andreas H. Fink, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Chairperson: 16891
14:45–15:00 |
EMS2019-834
Shifa Mathbout, Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Dominic Royé, and Javier Martin-Vide
Chairperson: 16891
15:00–15:15 |
EMS2019-758
Evangelia Bitsa, Helena A. Flocas, John Kouroutzoglou, Maria Hatzaki, Irina Rudeva, and Ian Simmonds
Chairperson: 16891
15:15–15:30

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