Co-occurrence of hot and dry extreme events in European plain regions

One of the most severe consequences of climate change is the increase of extreme weather events, both their intensity and frequency. A particularly high risk to agriculture is posed by complex extreme weather events, so-called multivariate compound events. An example of this type of compound event is either simultaneous or consecutive heat wave and drought. Since Europe’s food safety is highly dependent on crop yields, it is essential to precisely map the climate vulnerability of agricultural regions. 

The purpose of this study is to conduct spatial and temporal analyses of hot and dry compound events in five European plain regions with different climatic conditions, between 1971 and 2025. The selected regions (Svealand – Sweden; Finnish Lakeland – Finland, Russia; Pannonian Plain – Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine; Paris Basin – France; Po Valley – Italy) enable the comparison of humid continental, subarctic, oceanic, and humid subtropical climatic conditions. The study focuses on the vegetation period from April to October, which is critical for agriculture, in order to obtain a more accurate picture of the impacts on major field crops (e.g., wheat, maize, barley).

In this study, we used high-resolution, gridded daily data from E-OBS, more specifically, maximum temperature and precipitation time series to analyse the frequency of days exceeding/below various threshold values (e.g., Tmax > 30 °C and daily precipitation < 1 mm), as well as Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). The simultaneous occurrence of the lack of precipitation and extreme temperatures across the European plains is analysed using inter- and intra-variability of the selected European regions.