Bridging The Gap : project overview and workshop outcomes

Forecast verification is a critical component in the development and evaluation of weather prediction models. Spatial weather fields present unique challenges for verification due to their complex structures and the inherent spatial dependencies. Two main approaches have emerged to tackle these challenges: spatial verification methods designed to mitigate the double penalty effect and consistent/proper scores motivated by theoretical decision-making principles.

Bridging The Gap is a research project aimed at connecting these two communities to foster collaboration and advance the field of spatial verification for ensemble forecasts. Bridging The Gap is an activity of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The project seeks to explore the links between spatial verification methods and consistent/proper scores, develop new methodologies, and address current challenges of spatial verification (e.g., ensemble forecasts and AI-based weather prediction models).

In June 2026, the project will hold its first dedicated workshop at the University of Reading (UK). The event will bring together researchers from both communities for contributed and invited talks, and closed discussion sessions aimed at identifying future research directions and kickstarting a joint review article. We provide an overview of the current state of spatial verification for ensemble forecasts, summarize the key themes and outcomes of the workshop, and outline open research questions at the intersection of spatial verification, proper scoring rules, and the evaluation of ensemble and AI-based forecasts.

Acknowledgements. The Bridging The Gap workshop was made possible through the support of the World Weather Research Programme of the World Meteorological Organization.