Displays

The human population has substantially grown and become wealthier over the last decades. These developments have led to major increases in the use of key natural resources such as food, energy and water causing increased pressure on the environment throughout the world. As these trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future, a crucial question is how the provision of resources as well as the quality of the environment can be managed sustainably.

Environmental quality and resource provision are intricately linked. For example, food production depends on availability of water, land suitable for agriculture, and favourable climatic circumstances. In turn, food production causes climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, and affects biodiversity through conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and through the effects of excessive fertilizer and use of pesticides. There are many examples of the complex interlinkages between different production systems and environmental issues. To handle this complexity the nexus concept has been introduced which recognizes that different sectors are inherently interconnected and must be investigated in an integrated, holistic manner.

Until now, the nexus literature predominantly exists of local studies or qualitative descriptions. This study present the first qualitative, multi-model nexus study at the global scale, based on scenarios simultaneously developed with the MAgPIE land use model and the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The goal is to quantify synergies and trade-offs between different sectors of the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Each scenario is designed to substantially improve one of the nexus sectors water, land, energy, food or climate. A number of indicators that capture important aspects of both the nexus sectors and related SDGs is selected to assess whether these scenarios provide synergies or trade-offs with other nexus sectors, and to quantify the effects. Additionally a scenario is developed that aims to optimize policy action across nexus sectors providing an example of a holistic approach that achieves multiple sustainable development goals.

The results of this study highlight many synergies and trade-offs. For example, an important trade-off exists between climate change policy and food security targets: large-scale implementation of bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets negatively impacts food security. An interesting synergy exists between the food, water and climate sectors: promoting healthy diets reduces water use, improves water quality and increases the uptake of carbon by forests.

How to cite: Doelman, J., Kram, T., Bodirsky, B., Weindle, I., and Stehfest, E.: Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-15192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15192, 2020.

Ecosystems around the world support both biodiversity and human well-being, providing essential goods and services including food, fiber, building materials, moisture/temperature regulation, carbon sequestration, disaster risk reduction, and spiritual/cultural meaning. While we all depend on these benefits to survive and thrive, they are especially critical to the world’s most vulnerable people. And as populations and economies grow and the climate continues to change, humanity may find itself needing nature’s benefits in new and unexpected ways.

Mapping ecosystem service provision globally along with biodiversity is essential to effective, just, and lasting conservation planning and prioritization. Identifying global ecosystem service hotspots is key to enabling multi-scale water-energy-land nexus planning for managing socio-economic, climatic, and technological change. This presentation will showcase the latest results of a first-of-its-kind effort to collect the best available spatial datasets of global ecosystem service provision and synthesize them into a common “critical natural capital” framework that highlights global ecosystem service “hotspots” for both humanity overall and the world’s most vulnerable people in particular. Drawn from a wide range of observational and modeling studies conducted by physical and social scientists around the world, this innovative synthesis represents the first attempt to create an integrated spatial map of all that we know about humanity’s dependence on nature, on land and at sea.

Biodiversity is intimately linked to ecosystem services, since intact ecosystems with diverse and abundant native flora and fauna have the greatest ability to provide these irreplaceable services to humanity. Thus, conserving nature for biodiversity and conserving nature for human well-being are two sides of the same coin. This presentation will explore how to integrate these maps of the world’s critical natural capital into the global conservation conversation. These maps will enable investors and policymakers at the global and national scales to explore the potential consequences to humanity of diverse area-based conservation strategies, providing crucial context for the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and related conversations.

Sustainable use and management of land and sea, in line with the vision outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals, is essential to preserving both biodiversity and humanity’s ability to thrive on this planet. The upcoming negotiation of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework represents a key opportunity to set the planet on a path to more strategic and effective management of the terrestrial and marine realms, and our maps can inform decision-making around the size and spatial distribution of protected areas and other effective conservation measures. Society can only manage what it can monitor, and with the clearer vision of the most important places for both biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision these maps provide, humanity will be well-poised to start the next decade off on the right foot.

How to cite: Collins, P., Neugarten, R., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Hole, D., and Polasky, S.: Natural capital, ecosystem services, and conservation – Maps to sustain both nature and humanity, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20646, 2020.

The variabilities in both time and space of the flows between the components of the water-food-energy are dependent on many driving factors. In this study we use global scenarios from the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE to analyse future changes in flows in the water, food and energy nexus. With Sankey diagrams we show how flows between energy and food production will likely increase by 60% and water consumption by 20% in 2050 by using a reference scenario. The inclusion of climate action policies, combined with dietary changes, increased yield efficiency and food waste reduction leads to similar resources uses of water and land, and much lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2010.

We found that based on data, spatial scales are an important but complicating factor in nexus analysis. This is because different resources have their own physical and spatial scale characteristics within the nexus. To examine the effect of scaling on future nexus development, we analyse how local decisions and local resource availability of the use of biomass as energy source impacts other resources. Biomass use potentially impacts forest systems and might compete with land for food and water resources within the nexus. The use of biomass and more specifically charcoal will likely further increase mainly due to urbanization in developing countries. We have examined how different shared socio economic pathway (SSP) scenarios result in (i) future demand for biomass for energy and compare those to measured (with remote sensing) and modelled net primary productivity values of forested systems, (ii) estimate the amount of land needed for biomass production that might compete with food production, and (iii) estimate the water amount needed to produce biomass to meet the different biomass demands. We found that current productivity of non-protected forests is globally higher than the demand, but regionally it closely meets the demand for tropical areas in Central America and Africa. This while tropical areas in South America and Indonesia show decreasing biomass demands for energy for the SSP1-SSP3 scenarios. From this analysis we clearly see differences at regional scales in the competition between the resources land and water are found. 

We conclude that a nexus framework analysis which estimates flows between the different components across scales is fundamental to understand system sustainability. Such approach benefits from combining global scenarios of Integrated Assessment models with local conditions to understand the sustainability in the nexus in time and space.

How to cite: Dekker, S. C., Santos, M. J., Van 'tVeen, H., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Downscaling flows in the water-food-energy Nexus , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4106, 2020.

The aim of this study is to develop a Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus platform based on boundaries of resources and system dynamics modeling. For example, water-shed indicates river basin, aquifer or water supply area regarded as non-tradable boundary. However food-shed indicates both food production and consumption area in addition to food trade. Energy-shed is mainly defined by electricity distribution. Therefore, the boundary of each resource is different and we link water, energy, and food boundaries such as resource-sheds in the FEW Nexus.  As a case study, we analyze the interlinkage among national, regional, and local sustainability in terms of resource management and socio-economic-environmental impacts in Japan. First, we analyze the local characteristics of FEW Nexus as a prefecture level using the FEW indices, and assess the potential issues under future industrialization or economic growth situations. Second, we combine the local FEW Nexus into regional platform, for example, the Kansai regional Nexus including Osaka, Kyoto, Shiga, Hyogo, Nara, and Wakayama prefecutures. Finally, we adpat the boundary of resource-sheds into the regional Nexus and assess the changes in local resource management on regional resource sustainability using system dynamics modeling. Thus, we assess the impacts of changes about water, energy, and food management in each prefecture on regional water and energy security in Kansai region. This study could contribute to develop a common framework for scientists and policy-makers to evaluate sustainable resource management with multi-scale perspective, thus it has the potential to achieve integrated water, energy and food security.

How to cite: Lee, S., Taniguchi, M., and Masuhara, N.: Multi-scale Food- Energy-Water Nexus to link national, regional and local sustainability based on resource-sheds and system dynamics modeling: A Case study of Japan, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12119, 2020.

The Indus Basin, a densely irrigated area home to about 300-million people, has expected growing demands for water, energy and food in the coming decades.  With no abundant surface water left in the basin and accelerating use of groundwater, long-term strategic and integrated management of water and its interlinked sectors (water-energy-land) is fundamental for the sustainable development of the region. Cooperation among riparian countries is an alternative to current situation that could help achieving water-energy-land related Sustainable Development Goals, maximizing socio-environmental benefits and minimizing costs. We show a scenario-based analysis using numerical models (The Nexus Solution Tool) where we link local issues and policies to the Sustainable Development Goals, showing magnitude and geographical location of required investments to meet SDG and the associated impacts. Finally, we discuss the barriers to cross-border cooperation and explore cases of partial cooperation, which confirms significant environmental and economic benefits.

How to cite: Vinca, A., Parkinson, S., and Riahi, K.: Benefits of Cross-Border Cooperation for Achieving Water-Energy-Land Sustainable Development Goals in the Indus Basin, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13296, 2020.

The sustainability of urban water systems is commonly analyzed based on local characteristics, such as the protection of urban watersheds or the existence of nature-based solutions for stormwater drainage. Water embedded in food and other goods consumed within cities, or the pollution caused by their production is generally not assessed as part of urban water system sustainability. However, indirect feedbacks can produce negative impacts (e.g., drought and water quality impairments) resulting from these water and ecological footprints. We therefore suggest that, within the context of nexus thinking, embedded water and ecosystem impacts should be part of urban water governance considerations.

We quantify the local and global sustainability of urban water supply systems (UWSS) based on the performance of local sustainable governance and the size of global water and ecological footprints. Building on prior work on UWSS security and resilience, we develop a new framework that integrates security, resilience, and sustainability to investigate trade-offs between these three distinct and inter-related dimensions. Security refers to the level of services, resilience is the system’s ability to respond to and recover from shocks, and sustainability refers to the long-term viability of system services. Security and resilience are both relevant at local scale (city and surroundings), while for sustainability cross-scale and -sectoral feedbacks are important. We apply the new framework to seven cities selected from diverse hydro-climatic and socio-economic settings on four continents. We find that UWSS security, resilience, and local sustainability coevolve, while global sustainability correlates negatively with security. Approaching these interdependent goals requires governance strategies that balance the three dimensions within desirable and viable operating spaces. Cities outside these boundaries risk system failure in the short-term, due to lack of security and resilience, or face long-term consequences of unsustainable governance strategies. Our findings have strong implications for policy-making, strategic management, and for designing systems to operate sustainably at local and global scales, and across sectors.

The corresponding article was accepted for publication in Environmental Research Letters on Jan. 15, 2020.

How to cite: Krueger, E., Borchardt, D., Jawitz, J., and Rao, S.: Balancing Local and Global Sustainability of Urban Water Supply Systems with Water Security and Resilience Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20100, 2020.

Based on the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – Targets - Indicators 2016-2030, the objective of this paper is to emphasize on water resources as a cross-cutting issue and at the center of sustainable development, presenting a specific analysis of the importance of a better knowledge of the hydrology - hydrometrics of country major and local basins as fundamental information for water resources sustainable management. This implies the review of specific indicators related to the knowledge at town level of water resources assessment and availability, fundamental to life, health, food security, energy, the environment, and human well-being.

There are limitations including the lack of accurate and complete data. Local sub-national variation in water resources and water withdrawal could be considerable, as at the level of local or individual river basins, and the lack of account of seasonal variations in water resources. Regional values may mask huge differences within regions and also within countries where people live in areas of serious water scarcity, although each country could have enough renewable water resources overall.

In order to ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, and to implement integrated water resources management at all levels (targets 6.4 and 6.5 of the SDGs), a fundamental baseline is the assessment of available and exploitable water resources at local level, as well as its development feasibility. 

Data on water resources availability is a key indicator that should be approached at local level, since in a majority of countries, i) most local and rural communities and towns do not count with the information regarding their water resources, ii) local information will contribute to improve the accuracy of information of renewable water resources at country level, iii) rural settlements are in general the most vulnerable, lacking services of drinking water and irrigation for food security, and iv) small variations on the estimations of available water resources would represent social, environmental and economic consequences on water resources management and sustainable development planning.

Based on the analysis of the ecohydrology of two case studies, it is demonstrated that there cannot be effective integrated water resources management (IWRM) at town level if there is a lack of information on water resources availability.

Considering the limitations described in regard to goals-targets-indicators of sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, and the implementation of integrated water resources management, it is indispensable to count with adequate and reliable local hydrological - hydrometric data and monitoring systems that would contribute to partially control these limitations, assessing available water supplies for community planning.

In reference to Agenda 2030, countries must implement a complementary indicator, as the percentage of the population whose water sources are monitored by means of adequate measuring methods, providing information on surface water and ground water regimes that influence water availability.

How to cite: Castanier, H.: Assessment of Local Water Resources for Sustainable Development Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-899, 2020.

More than half of the world’s population are urban dwellers, and this percentage is on the rise. Therefore, understanding the links between water, energy, and food requirements of cities plays a critical role in determining global resource consumption. Adelaide is a mid-size, coastal Australian city in Australia with a population of almost 1.3 million inhabitants. With its plentiful access to wind and solar energy, the Adelaide region has one of the highest rates of renewable energy production in the world, and access to additional, conventional energies supplies from other parts of the Australian network. However, the water supplies in this region are theoretically limited, as groundwater depletion is already occurring in the food production areas surrounding the city, and municipal water supplies rely heavily on the fully allocated Murray River system. Therefore, optimization of the food, energy and water requirements of the city provides an opportunity for optimal use of valuable resources. Quantification of these industries was not trivial and provided data availability and comparison challenges.  Lessons learned on a quantitative example of the water-energy-food nexus at city scale are presented.

How to cite: Shanafield, M., Batelaan, O., and Subramani, S.: Characterising and quantifying links between water, energy, and food consumption in a water-poor, energy-rich city; Adelaide, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20461, 2020.

There is increasing interest in the global water-energy-food (WEF) system and potential future system trajectories under global change, especially considering growing concerns over resource exploitation and sustainability. Previous studies investigating different aspects of this system have a number of shortcomings including not analysing all nexus sectors and/or not accounting for possible feedback between sectors, meaning it is difficult to identify system-wide tradeoffs, and makes comparison difficult. A global analysis of the WEF system linked to changes in potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth is presented, integrating the four sectors (water-energy-food-GDP) into a coherent analysis and modelling framework. GDP was included as previous related work demonstrates a link between GDP and each WEF sector. A system dynamics modelling approach quantifies previously qualitative descriptions of the global WEF-GDP system, while a Monte-Carlo sampling approach is adopted to characterise variability in resource use and growth at the global level. Correlative and causal analysis show links of varying strength between sectors. For example, the GDP-electricity consumption sectors are strongly correlated while food production and electricity consumption are weakly correlated. Causal analysis reveals that ‘correlation does not imply causation’. There are noticeable asymmetries in causality between certain sectors. Historical WEF-GDP values are well recreated with the exception of electricity production/consumption. Future scenarios were assessed using seven GDP growth estimates to 2100. Water withdrawals in 2100 and food production in 2050 are close to other literature estimations arrived at using very different means. Results suggest that humanity risks exceeding the ‘safe operating space’ for water withdrawal. Reducing water withdrawal while maintaining or increasing food production is critical, and should be decoupled from economic growth. Electricity production/consumption is also expected to grow, with the strength of growth linked to GDP pathways. Climate impacts of the production and consumption will depend greatly on the fuel source for the generation of power. This work provides a quantitative modelling framework to previously qualitative descriptions of the WEF-GDP system, offering a platform on which to build.

How to cite: Masia, S. and Susnik, J.: Data-driven modelling of potential trajectories of the global water-energy-food nexus system, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7296, 2020.

Funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) as a Higher Education Excellence in Development Cooperation (exceed), the SDG^nexus Network is a global community of universities, research centers and stakeholders committed to promoting the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. Supported for five years starting in 2020, the network will establish a common research framework related to the inter-linkages, trade-offs, and synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As part of this endeavor, we will focus on water-related SDGs and how they interact, support, and counteract with other SDGs. We will particularly investigate the interaction between SDGs related to land use, food provision, and energy production.

Consisting of seven university core partners with four of them in Latin America (two each in Ecuador and Columbia) and three in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan), the network liaise research between countries with typical development challenges such as the resource curse or the middle-income trap.

Both regions have water, energy, and food interrelated concerns. Hydropower generation upstream can have, for example, adverse effects on the agricultural water use downstream. The timing of water use throughout the year is a potential conflict in Central Asia, such as in the Syr Darja and Amur Darja basins that discharge into the Aral Sea. The energy demand in winter contradicts the agricultural crop water requirement in summer. In the Amazon basin deforestation likely changes the large-scale water cycle and, therefore, the local to regional the rainfall patterns through a modified moisture recycling. Such changes could result in less rainfall on the eastern side of the Andes and consequently diminishes discharge into the Amazon basin from the Andean headwaters.

Climate change will further increase the pressure on water resources. The glacier-fed headwaters in the Tian Shan mountain in Asia and the Andes systems are suspected of undergoing dramatic changes in the near future. While an increased runoff in summer due to the rapid melting of the glaciers is expected initially, runoff will decrease due to the loss of the glacier as an intermediate water reservoir in the long term.

Overall, the SDG^nexus network will build bridges between water-related science, education, as well as development. It supports the identification of potential areas of intervention for decisionmakers, and reduce the research gap in inter-linkages between SDG goals and targets. Furthermore, the network aims at developing alternative land use options under climate change conditions to sustain environmental flows in both world regions.

How to cite: Weeser, B. and Breuer, L.: Water-related synergists and antagonists in the SDGnexus Network , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4238, 2020.

The security of food-energy-water systems (FEW systems) is an issue of worldwide concern, especially in mega-urban regions (MURs) with high-density populations, industries and carbon emissions. To better understand the hidden linkages between urbanization and FEW systems, the pressure on FEW systems is quantified in a typical rapid urbanizing region—the Bohai MUR. The correlation between urbanization indicators and the pressure on FEW systems is analyzed and the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on FEW systems is further investigated. Results show that approximately 23% of croplands is lost, 61% of which is converted to construction lands and the urban areas expand by 132.2% in the Bohai MUR during 1980-2015. The pressure on FEW systems has an upward trend with the stress index of the pressure on FEW systems (FEW_SI) exhibiting ranging from 80.49 to 134.82% and dominant pressure consisting of that has converted from water system pressure to energy system pressure since 2004. The FEW_SI in the Bohai MUR is enhanced with cropland loss and the increase in urbanization indicators. Additionally, land use, populations, incomes, policies and innovation are the main ways urbanization impacted FEW systems in MURs. This study enhances our understanding of the pressure variation on FEW systems in MURs and the effects of urbanization on FEW systems, which helps stakeholders to enhance the resilience of FEW systems and promote sustainable regional development.

Keywords: urbanization, food-energy-water system pressure, linkages, MURs

How to cite: Deng, C., Wang, H., Gong, S., Zhang, J., Yang, B., and Zhao, Z.: Effects of urbanization on food-energy-water systems in mega-urban regions: a case study of the Bohai MUR, China, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4576, 2020.

The water-food-energy (WFE) nexus are intertwined with urbanization, land use, and population growth and is rapidly expanding in scholarly literature and research projects as a novel way to address complex resource and development challenges. The nexus-related research aims to identify tradeoffs and synergies of water, energy, and food systems, internalize mutual impacts between the nexus and the urban systems, and guide the development of sustainable solutions. However, while the WFE nexus offers a promising conceptual approach, limited research focuses on systematically mapping the water, food, and energy interlinkages and evaluate the research trends and issues that we are facing in this field.
Water, food, and energy are the basis for human livelihoods and economic activities; they are also closely interrelated: Agriculture, forestry, and the energy sector simultaneously depend heavily on and affect water resources. Energy is essential for water management, but also agricultural production, processing, and marketing. Land is needed for the production of food, fodder, and renewable energy, as well as for water resource protection. Demographic trends – such as population growth, progressive urbanization, and globalization, changing lifestyles and consumer habits – are increasing pressure on already limited natural resources. A sustainable urban system requires the achievement of mitigating human impact on natural ecosystems while fulfilling our need for development.
Previous studies have discussed the research trends and nexus assessment tools (e.g., Endo et al. 2015;2017). Despite the increasing use of the WFE nexus in scholarly literature and research projects, few studies have systematically reviewed the broad range of linkages in the body of nexus literature. There is a need for a comprehensive review of, and critical reflection on, existing nexus linkages and issues to gain the big picture, improve clarity, and promote further advances in research for WFE nexus.
This paper reviews current WFE nexus linkages and issues to promote further development of tools and methods that align with nexus thinking and address the complexity of multi-sectoral resource interactions. As a conceptual framework, the nexus approach leverages an understanding of WEF linkages to promote coherence in policy-making and enhance sustainability. A summary of the most frequently used nexus linkages, issues, and keywords obtained from journal articles provides the clues to discover the current research emphases. Findings will provide a better understanding of trends in this line of research, which will serve as a useful reference for future studies.

How to cite: Huang, T., Hu, M.-C., and Tsai, I.-C.: A Systematic Review of Linkages and Trends in Water-Food-Energy/Urban Nexus Research, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9965, 2020.

Mountains play an essential role in storing water and providing it to downstream regions and are therefore commonly referred to as ‘water towers of the world’. In particular, they provide runoff in the lowlands’ low flow season by contributing snow- and glacier melt. Mountain runoff thus plays an important role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular regarding water, food, and energy. However, the mountains’ water provision service is strongly challenged by climate change leading to the retreat and volume loss of glaciers, rising snow lines, and changes in precipitation amount and variability. One potential strategy for addressing these changes is the construction of new water reservoirs or the adjustment of current reservoir management strategies. These strategies need to take account of various, eventually competing water uses rooted in different sectors relevant at different scales and governments with different economic interests.

We investigate the governance process related to the planning of a future reservoir in one of the most important water towers of the world, the European Alps. We ask why and how governance processes can lead to a coordination gap between upstream reservoir planning and the development of strategies allowing for the alleviation of downstream water shortage. We show on a case study in the Swiss Alps, that downstream water deficits could potentially be covered through a newly constructed upstream reservoir if management strategies were flexible enough. However, additional water uses than hydropower were not taken into account in the governance processes leading to the provision of a concession for the new reservoir. Instead, the decision-making within a participative process was influenced by (a) a lack of knowledge and data, (b) an interest to increase renewable energy production, (c) a focus on environmental agreements, and (d) economic interests. We conclude that upstream and downstream water demands need to be balanced in governance processes. Such balancing can be achieved by clarifying process design and by evaluating who can lead such complex processes with actors from different governments and sectors under the umbrella of non-uniform and incoherent institutions.

How to cite: Kellner, E. and Brunner, M. I.: Reservoirs in world’s water towers: Need for appropriate governance processes to reach Sustainable Development Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11004, 2020.

Population and economic growth have increased demand for food, energy, and other resources. At the same time, there is competition from those sectors on limited water and land resources. Thailand faces similar challenges as they transition towards energy independence by increasing renewable energy production for energy security, and to become future exporters of energy. Thailand implemented the Alternative Energy Development Policy (AEDP) in 2012, which led to shifting land use from rice for food to sugarcane for energy production, especially from crop residue. Currently, crop residue use for electricity production is well below its potential. In 2017, 1.06% and 4.44% of total potential of paddy husk and sugarcane bagasse respectively were being used for electricity generation (DEDE, 2017). The AEDP looks to increase energy production from residue use, by targeting future growth in demand, technological changes, and potential areas for renewable energy production. This policy will also impact food supply, water and land use. The sugarcane act in Thailand sets minimum internal prices, in line with international sugar prices, to safeguard the industry, and farmers. However, this safeguard does not apply to sales for energy production, thus discouraging farmers to sell sugarcane to power plants. The study uses an input-output model to understand the economic effects of using crop residue for electricity on the economy, land, labour, etc. The study runs two future scenarios and two historical years (2011 and 2014) to assess these impacts. The first scenario looks at the policy from the Ministry of Industry to stop sugarcane residue burning by 2022. The second scenario looks at the AEDP, which seeks to rapidly increase the generation of electricity from biomass by 2036. The results demonstrate that in the first scenario, where the entire potential of sugarcane bagasse is used for electricity production, electricity generated from all other sources remains nearly the same. Therefore, reliance on non-renewable sources do not change from 2014 to 2022. Similar results are seen for water use, labour and capital, where there is no change over time. The second scenario shows that while the AEDP increases production from biomass, it is not capturing the full potential and therefore electricity production is much lower from crop residues than in scenario 1. This leads to increasing production of electricity from other non renewable sources. We also see a reduction in paddy production and a rise in cane production before the implementation of the AEDP to the future. We conclude that while Thailand is moving towards energy security, policies should target technological development and mechanization at the farm level. The subsidies targeting farmers selling cane for sugar production should also reach those used for energy production, as well as to rice. To ensure reliability of energy supply, irrigation would also be required, as droughts and flooding are both common in different regions of Thailand. Another solution would be to increase the AEDP target, where a larger potential of sugarcane and rice residues are being used for electricity generation.

How to cite: Kumar, I., Feng, K., Bandaru, V., and Sun, L.: An Input-Output Approach to Thailand's Energy Transition: Effects on the Land, Water and Food, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11142, 2020.

Ensuring reliable supplies of energy and water are two important Sustainable Development Goals, particularly for Sub-Saharan African countries. The energy and water challenges are however not independent, and the interlinkages between them are increasingly recognized and studied using water-energy nexus approaches. Yet, most of existing modeling tools are not accurately reproducing this nexus and thus provide limited support to the design of sustainable development plans.

In this work, we contribute an integrated modeling approach by embedding the hydrological description of the Zambesi River Basin into an energy model of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). The SAPP is the largest African power pool in terms of installed capacity and coordinates the planning and operation of the electric power system among the twelve member countries (Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe). Specifically, we use the Calliope energy model, which allows to form internally coherent scenarios of how energy is extracted, converted, transported and used, setting arbitrary spatial and temporal resolution and time series input data. As in many state-of-the-art energy models, hydropower production is poorly described by neglecting the water availability constraints and assuming hydropower plant produce at their nominal capacity in each timestep. Exploiting Calliope existing modeling components, we improved the hydrological description of the main reservoirs in the Zambezi River Basin as part of the overall SAPP model, namely Ithezithezi (120 MW), Kafue Gorge (990 MW), Kariba (1.8 GW) and Cahora Bassa (2 GW). Our improvements include the most relevant hydrological constraints, such as time-varying water availability as determined by inflow patterns, time-varying hydraulic head, evaporation losses, cascade releases and minimum and maximum storage value. The model outcomes, such as the  storage timeseries of each reservoir and the power production by source of each country, are then evaluated for different hydrologic scenarios. Our results are expected to demonstrate the value of advancing the hydropower characterization in energy models by capturing reservoir dynamics and water resource availability. These improvements will be particularly valuable to support hydropower expansion in African countries that rely mostly on hydropower to satisfy their growing energy demand.

How to cite: Daddi, M., Barbieri, A., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., Colombo, E., Rocco, M., and Stevanato, N.: Integrating hydrological constraints for hydropower in energy models: the case of the Zambesi River Basin in the Southern African Power Pool, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11722, 2020.

In Sub Saharan Africa, many people depend on biomass for their household energy. Charcoal production is a common technique for converting biomass into a useful energy source. Nigeria is the biggest charcoal producer in Sub Saharan Africa. A large amount of wood is harvested from Nigerian forests for this charcoal production for energy. The Nexus of charcoal-land use change-energy imposes a considerable burden on the amount of wood that must be extracted from the forest for charcoal production. Therefore, charcoal production is linked to deforestation and forest degradation. However, it is not clear to what extent the demand for charcoal in Nigeria contributes to deforestation by land use change, and degradation of forests by selected wood logging. In this study, an attempt was made to provide an answer to this and to state which situation could occur by 2030, following the expected population growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, literature and open data on charcoal production, deforestation, forest degradation and population growth in Nigeria have been collected and analysed. Subsequently, calculations were carried out to determine to what extent charcoal production contributed to deforestation in the period 1990-2015. In this period, the share of deforestation due to charcoal production increased from 6% to 14%. If the expected charcoal production in 2030 were to apply to the current situation, this share would be around 20%. The quantity of wood required can also be expressed in numbers of hectares with biomass. In that case, around 80,000 ha would be required in 2030. To validate the findings, further research is needed on the amount of biomass per hectare in Nigerian forests, and on the amount of charcoal exported, not only as source of household energy but also globally as barbecue fuel. A more extensive analysis of open data on the nexus charcoal-land use change-energy at multiple scales will help to project future interlinkages.

How to cite: Lansu, A., Bos, J., and Ivens, W.: The Impact of Charcoal Production for Energy on Tropical Rainforest Resources in Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11780, 2020.

An intensification of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) to extract oil and gas from deep shale formations has been observed during the last years across the USA, increasing concerns about water resources management in water-limited regions around the world. At the same time, HF has been associated to several environmental and water quality/quantity impacts in many developed plays of USA, China and Canada, nevertheless, assessing impacts on emergent plays involves several difficulties since future development of HF is generally unknown and because of the lack of local data to evaluate water resources baselines.

In this work, we present a framework that combines the use of remote sensing derived data to assess the baseline of water resources and the development and application of a statistical model to project the development of HF activities. Remote sensing and global land surface model products of precipitation (CHIRPS), evapotranspiration (MODIS), recharge (WaterGAP model), infiltration and runoff (MERRA) and water storage (GRACE) were used to estimate water availability and the hydrological response of watersheds and aquifers. Scenarios of HF were generated using a statistical model that simulates HF water requirements, hydrocarbon production, flowback-produced water and economic trends, among others factors that influence the HF development.

The proposed framework was applied to evaluate the impacts of HF development on the water energy-nexus at the transboundary Eagle Ford play, located across Mexico’s northeast, a water-limited region that contains substantial reserves of shale gas.

Scenarios were generated following two economic projections and assuming water use trends and historical HF development from the Eagle Ford, Barnett and Haynesville plays, in Texas, which are geologically similar to the Mexican Eagle Ford play.

Results suggested that the higher impacts on the water-energy nexus in Mexico resulted from reported trends in Eagle Ford, Texas, with ~14,000 wells drilled in ten years and an accumulative water use volume of ~450 millions cubic meters, representing about ~69% of the annual groundwater concessions for municipal use.

The framework presented in this work can be used in other plays around the world to assess the impacts of HF on water resources and their implications in its water-energy nexus.

How to cite: Arciniega-Esparza, S., Breña-Naranjo, A., Hernández-Espriú, A., and Pedrozo-Acuña, A.: Assessing the impacts of shale gas development on the water-energy nexus across the semiarid Mexico’s northeast, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11937, 2020.

For operation of large thermal power plants, reservoirs-receivers are the most common type of cooler. Depending on the capacity of the power plants and the size of the water bodies used as reservoirs-receivers, the organization of the cooling system may be direct-flow or reverse. The main task of the effective operation of the cooling system is to ensure the stability of its functioning under conditions of significant variability of both hydrological and meteorological parameters. For the solution of this problem, the development of technological operation schemes based on computational experiments is of fundamental importance. It is also important to take into account the effect of thermal pollution on changes in the ice-thermal regime, hydrobiological processes in the area of the influence of the discharge of heated water. At the same time, it is important to take into account both technological and environmental criteria when assessing the parameters of temperature fields created during the discharge of heated water, depending on the complex of technological and hydrometeorological parameters.

In the present paper, we considered the scenarios of the impact of the Perm Power Plant on the Kama reservoir using a direct-flow cooling system, which are of the great interest from an environmental and technological points of view. Three-dimensional numerical simulation was carried out for different operating modes of the Kama reservoir. Since significant vertical temperature heterogeneity is observed in reservoirs-receivers, in order to achieve sufficient correctness, calculations should be conducted in the general case using 3D models. However, the implementation of such calculations for large water bodies in the conditions of the extremely limited current monitoring network encounters very significant difficulties due to the limited computing resources. In this regard, a combined calculation scheme is proposed and is being implemented, including models in 1D, 2D, 3D formulations. 1D model was built for the entire reservoir, 2D model for 30 km-length section adjacent to the Perm Power Plant, and for 10 km-length section that includes the supply and discharge channels of the Perm Power Plant, 3D model was created.

The calculations have shown that under conditions of strong wind in a direction opposite to the direction of the river flow, large-scale three-dimensional vortex is formed within several hours, the horizontal size of which is equal to the distance between the junctions of the supply and discharge channels with the reservoir, and the vertical size is equal to the depth of the river. The presence of backwater from the Kama hydroelectric station leads to the active movement of warm water in the surface layer against the river flow. In this case, in a few hours, warm water reaches the water intake point of the cooling channel, which is extremely undesirable from a technological point of view. Significant temperature heterogeneity also arises in depth, with the temperature gradient being greatest near the bottom of the river.

The study was supported by Russian Science Foundation (grant 17-77-20093).

How to cite: Parshakova, Y., Lyubimova, T., Lepikhin, A., and Lyakhin, Y.: Investigation of the effect of backwater on the propagation of thermal pollution during operation of a thermal power plant, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13430, 2020.

As economic development continues to expand, rivers resources are exploited for power generation, flood control, and irrigation, which substantially impacts the river hydrology and surrounding ecosystem.  Reservoir construction is one of the major contributors to such changes.  Around the world, the long free-flowing rivers are impaired due to reservoirs and their downstream propagation of fragmentation and flow regulation, which impacts the structural and functional connectivities of the entire basin. The extent of interdependence and interactions of biophysical, social, and economic characteristics determine hydrological behaviour and thus define the sustainability of the river ecosystem. In this regard, the topography driven rainfall-runoff modeling (Flex-Topo model) approximates the river landscape hydrological behaviour by delineating the catchment into three functional hydrological units (HRUs).  However, these HRUs are natural and do not take anthropogenic factors into account. Therefore, the present study aims to understand the effects of the integration of reservoirs into a Flex-Topo model to assess model transferability in predicting the river flow regime in ungauged basins.

The Cauvery river basin in India is chosen as a case study. The construction of reservoirs in the Cauvery basin helped to expand irrigated areas, securing water availability during water stress conditions. Nevertheless, it aggravates the water allocation between upstream and downstream states leading to conflict among states sharing the river basin. Based on size and storage capacity, four large reservoirs are selected for the study. At first, the watershed area is delineated based on the gauge location. For adding reservoirs, two different flex-models are created for the watershed’s areas upstream and downstream of the reservoirs. A separate reservoir model is created for each reservoir. The reservoir model is integrated into the flex-model following operation rule curves to simulate the reservoir based on different reservoir yield. It is assumed that the response of the upstream catchment will serve as an input to the reservoir, and the outflow of the reservoir will be an input to the downstream catchment. These three subunits are connected, and river flow is simulated at the gauge station located at the downstream of the reservoir. Three different procedures are adopted to calibrate the model. First, the integrated flex reservoir model is calibrated using the downstream gauging station. In the second calibration method the reservoir is calibrated first, then keeping the parameters of the reservoir fixed the integrated model is calibrated using downstream gauging station. Third, both the reservoir model and flex model are calibrated separately. The modelled runoff from each parameter sets are compared using Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency and Mean Absolute Error with the observed.

Results indicate that the second calibration method performed the best and improved the overall performance of the Flex-Topo model. Further, results are compared across the four reservoirs in order to develop a generalized understanding of transferring a integrated flex model to basins where data on reservoirs is unavailable. The proposed method therefore provides a way to simulate both biophysical constraint and anthropogenic modifications simultaneously in river landscape and enhance understanding of impact of reservoirs on river flow regime.

How to cite: Ekka, A., Kesav, S., Pande, S., Zaag, P. V. D., and Jiang, Y.: Integrating reservoirs in a landscape-based hydrological model to understand the impact of the reservoir on flow regime in the Cauvery river basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16784, 2020.

Water use in the Mediterranean has been often pushed beyond sustainability, leading to water degradation and deterioration of ecosystem services. Different factors are interlinked with water management within a dynamically complex system (i.e. the Nexus) characterized by many feedbacks, trade-offs and high complexity of socioeconomic and environmental agents inducing non-linear responses hard to predict. Understanding such nexus systems requires innovative methodologies able to integrate different domains (e.g. hydrology, economics, planning, environmental and social sciences) and potential feedbacks, to support effective and targeted adaptation measures, taking into consideration uncertainty of climate change forecasts and associated impacts. Within the H2020 SIM4NEXUS project, water-land-energy-food-climate nexus links for Sardinia Island were represented with system dynamics modelling, together with relevant policy objectives, goals and measures. Sardinia, as many other Mediterranean regions, must implement a sustainable approach to water management, taking into account an equitable distribution of water resources between different sectors, economic needs, social priorities and ecology of freshwater ecosystems.

For the Sardinia case study, the main focus was the representation of the reservoir water balance for the island, accounting predominantly for water supply and for water demand related to agricultural, hydro-power production, domestic/tourist consumption and environmental flows. With irrigated agriculture being the largest water consumer, this sector was modelled in more detail with crop specific distribution and projections. While water is the central focus, links with other nexus sectors including energy, climate, food and land use are included. Energy generation and consumption were also important along with the mode of generation and sector of consumption, as was modelling the change in crop types (i.e. land use and food production changes) and the crop water requirements associated with potential crop and cropped area changes, and in response to change in the local climate. Energy production is modelled from sources including oil, coal and methane, solar, wind and hydropower, while energy demand comes from the agricultural, domestic, industrial and service sectors (including transportation). The use of energy from the different sectors and using different energy sources, either renewable and not renewable, have different implication on GHG and climate change.

While driven by strong interests to secure food provisions, an increase in irrigation in the Mediterranean may not be totally sustainable. Irrigation requirements of crops are projected to increase between 4 and 18% for 2050 compared to present conditions, limiting expansion of irrigated agriculture in Sardinia. Over the same period the inflow in the reservoirs can decrease between 5 and 20% and evaporation losses from reservoir surface bodies increase by 10%. Policy rules are tested and highlight how optimal allocation should be enforced in order to safeguard sustainability of natural resources over time, especially when considering climate variability. Natural resources are better preserved avoiding conflicts with strong seasonal peaks (i.e. summer). To meet these criticalities, new infrastructures and investments should increase use efficiency, All this would require changes in institutional and market conditions with a more cautious water management that includes prices and recycling policies.

How to cite: Trabucco, A., Masia, S., Sušnik, J., Spano, D., and Mereu, S.: The Water-Land-Energy-Food-Climate Nexus In Sardinia , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16867, 2020.

Water, energy, and food security in today's world have been hampered by high population and economic growth, pressures on limited resources, and climate change. Accordingly, balancing the various critical components of biomass in the form of a water-energy-food (WEF) Nexus approach is one of the essential pillars of water resources management, which will enhance the long-term sustainability of water resources by promoting sustainable development. Assessing the WEF Nexus based on CO₂ emissions leads to quantify the role of each component of WEF. This work aims to quantify WEF Nexus in a pilot study in the North West of Iran based on analyzing the CO₂ emission of the involved sectors. Gathering all require data that are involved in different activities in water, energy, and food sectors is the main challenge in this regard. Sahand Agro-Industry CO₂, established in 1996 and expanded in an area about 200 ha to produce alfalfa, maize, potato, rapeseed, sugar beet, and wheat. The area with an average annual temperature of 10.1 °C and bout 356 mm precipitation is located in a warm, dry-summer continental climate (Dsb climate, according to köppen climate classification). A detailed dataset including labor, machinery, diesel oil, fertilizer (nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus), biocide (pesticide, fungicide, and herbicide), irrigation water (groundwater and surface water), and output per unit area per product has been collected for 2008-2017. We evaluated the WEF Nexus by estimating CO₂ emission based on the water and energy equivalent and food production per unit area of crop production systems. In this regard, we applied several indices, including the WEF Nexus, water, and energy consumption, mass, and economic productivity, to estimate the CO₂ emitted during a ten-year time period, besides the effect of changing the cropping pattern on the amount of CO₂ emission. Furthermore, we developed an approach to achieve optimal cropping pattern to minimize water and energy consumption and maximize productivity. Because of the detail calculation of mentioned indices and existing operational limitations, first, two margin scenarios were developed: 1- crop pattern with the lowest CO₂ emission and 2- Crop pattern with the maximum net benefit. For each pattern, we calculated the area for different crops. Then by combining these two marginal patterns and using dynamic programming, we developed 128 different patterns between the two mentioned margins. The results showed that as the differentiation in the amount of CO₂ equivalent for each crop, different cultivation patterns would have a different effect on the carbon dioxide emission. Water withdrawal (extraction, displacement, and distribution of water in the field) requires energy consumption, which varies depending on the source used for irrigation. Also, water productivity per kcal per m³ will vary depending on the type of crop, cropping system, and agricultural management. Finally, we clustered scenarios based on CO₂ emission and net benefit and suggested the optimum condition.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, economic productivity, optimization, sustainable development, water-energy-food Nexus

How to cite: Hasanzadeh Saray, M., Torabi Haghighi, A., Fazel, N., and Klöve, B.: Quantifying Water-Energy-food Nexus based on CO2 emission in farm-land, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-17840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17840, 2020.

Energy, water, and land (EWL) resource planning at regional (e.g. large river basins, states and provinces, balancing authorities) and sub-regional (e.g. sub-basins, counties, Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ)) scales has commonly been conducted in relative isolation by institutions focused on individual sectors, such as water supply or electricity. The effectiveness of this traditional approach is increasingly being strained by rapid integration among sectors as well as by a range of regional and global forces, such as climate, technological and socioeconomic change. In this study we explore regional and sub-regional implications of these changes across the United States for a suite of scenarios representing a range of socio-economic and climate pathways. We couple a global integrated assessment model with a suite of sectoral downscaling tools to analyze the evolution of EWL hotspots at variable spatial scales. The ability to flexibly telescope into regions to identify the evolution of dynamic EWL hotspots allows planners to capitalize on synergistic opportunities as well as avoid potential conflicts across sectors at stakeholder specific jurisdictional boundaries as well as in the context of the larger region.

How to cite: Khan, Z., Wild, T., Vernon, C., Hejazi, M., Iyer, G., and Graham, N.: Dynamic Energy-Water-Land hotspots at variable spatial scales across the United States, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18378, 2020.

Natural resources competition between food and cash crops is a current challenge in many developing countries that are experiencing both lack of food availability and a fast growing economy, such as India. Silk industry has always been significant for the Indian economy since it provides high profits and employment. Almost 90% of the world commercial silk production is mulberry silk. Recently, to the aim of increasing silk production in the Country, the Central Silk Board of the Indian Ministry of Textile and the Indian Space Research Organization have identified potential suitable areas for mulberry cultivation through horizontal expansion in wastelands. Here, taking India as a case study, we analyse if the current cultivation of mulberry silk and the horizontal expansion of moriculture is environmentally sustainable. To this end, using the present land cover, we use a dynamic spatially distributed crop water balance model evaluating mulberry water requirement, the green and blue water provision and analysing both water scarcity at pixel scale and the impact of present and future moriculture on its increase.

Results show in the baseline scenario some States (e.g. West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana) suitable for mulberry horizontal expansion already experiencing water scarcity conditions and high prevalence of malnutrition that will be exacerbated, both on yearly and monthly scale, by increasing moriculture. Other States (i.e. Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland) show Mulberry expansion as the triggering factor of water scarcity condition. Particularly affected by water scarcity will be the North-Eastern Indian districts where potential mulberry areas are clustered.

The analysis of the population exposure to water scarcity due to mulberry horizontal expansion shows 11 million people potentially affected in India, where more than 65% living in the North-Eastern States. Compared to the total North-Eastern Region inhabitants, affected population accounts for more than the 15%.

How to cite: Ricciardi, L., Karatas, S., Chiarelli, D. D., and Rulli, M. C.: Environmental sustainability of increasing silk demand in India, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19986, 2020.

Self-sufficiency in water, food, and energy become major concerns of cities in the global urbanization era. To reach the self-sufficiency goals of cities, they depend more on external water resources, in the form of trade and imports to satisfy the water demands, which came into the focus with rapid urbanization. In this scenario, cities must measure their consumption, to know their dependence on external resources, and to draft their trade policies. But, it is tough to scale the dependency of cities on external resources at the city scale, in scarce of city-level trade data.

Here we are proposing a framework using the consumer-centric approach to scale dependency of an urban agglomeration, from consumption and production perspectives when there is no city-level trade data. In the consumption perspective, we used survey data provided by the National Sample Survey organization of India to asses the consumption footprints. In the production perspective, we used production statistics of the study area to assess the production footprints. The difference between the consumption and production WF will give the dependency of agglomeration on external resources. From the consumption perspective, the consumption WF of the study area is 1041 m³/cap/year.

This framework is flexible and can be switched between any two or more entities to know the dependency of cities on external resources for their resources. Moreover, this assessment plays a key role in trade policy decisions and also in scaling the consumption and dependency of cities to achieve self-sufficiency and sustainability goals of smart cities.

How to cite: Dagani, K. R. and Regonda, S. K.: Urban-Nexus: Dependency of urban agglomeration, Hyderabad, India, on external water resources in developing economy., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20021, 2020.

Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) is a land use process driven by increase in land demand and mediated by the global market: for example, the increase in demand for a certain crop in a specific country due to its use for the production of bio-materials drives up the global crop price, eventually resulting in land use change in some other country. Since land demand is already high for food/feed production, ILUC often defines if the production of a bio-material is sustainable or not. ILUC is very difficult to observe and therefore it is usually estimated through models rather measured; different models depends on which part of the complex problem is taken into account: economic equilibrium models (partial, general), causal-descriptive models, normative models. Most of these models are static, i.e. time is not directly factored in the model. A study of the JRC showed that ILUC models have high levels of uncertainty, both within and among models, due to uncertainty in input data, different assumptions and modelling frameworks. The (i) lack of model transparency, (ii) lack of dynamic effects and (iii) high model uncertainties make it difficult to include ILUC in sustainable policies.

Here, we present a dynamic causal-descriptive model to estimate changes in land demand as a proxy of the ILUC risk, and test it when increasing the production of bioplastic materials on a global scale. We used a system dynamic framework to (i) maintain the model easy to understand and (ii) account for dynamic effects like delays and feedback loops. We also addressed the (iii) uncertainty problem by: (a) considering ILUC on a global scale only, (b) use yearly time step to avoid short-term economic effects, (c) identifying control variables to use for model validation, (d) modelling only the projected change in land demand and translate it into global risk classes in line with the approach pursued in Europe by the Renewable Energy Directive. The model includes the relevant processes that literature identify as influential for ILUC: use of co-products, competition with the feed sector, price effect on agricultural production (intensive margin), expansion on less suitable land (extensive margin), use of agricultural residues, soil erosion, and increase in agricultural yields. The model was, then, calibrated and validated using the extensive FAOSTAT dataset and then studied using different sensitivity analysis techniques.

The validation shows that the model 10 years projections are reliable (~8% error). Both local and global sensitivity analysis show that that the most relevant factor influencing ILUC risk is the trend of agricultural yields which, at the global level and contrary to what is usually assumed in other models, is insensitive to crop prices. Other relevant factors, interesting for policy makers, are the yields of bioplastics and the use of co-products. The analysis shows there are levels of production that have negligible risk in the next 30 years for specific biomasses and at specific growth and processing conditions. However, a full shift of use from fossil-based plastics to bio-based plastics would result in a 200-300 Mha land conversion globally.

How to cite: Marazza, D., Balugani, E., and Merloni, E.: Indirect land use risk modelling with System Dynamics: the case of bioplastics, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20951, 2020.

In global socioeconomic development facing climate change challenges to minimize the output of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and moving to a more low-carbon economy (LCE) the major driving force for success in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is the cost of energy generation. One of the main factors for energy source selection in the power supply and energy type generation process is the price parameters often influenced at different degree by government policies incentives, technological and demographic challenges in different countries. We research the energy sources situation and possible development trends for developing country Kazakhstan with resource-based economy. In general, the economic aspects affect the quality and quantity of energy generated from different sources with incentives for environmental concern. Traditional energy sources in Kazakhstan, such as coal, oil and natural gas remain low-cost in production due to high reserve base, which leads to steady growth in this area. In general, the cost for generating 1 kWh of energy from the cheapest carbon source of energy sub-bituminous coal is about 0.0024 $, for natural gas 0.0057 $, conventional oil 0.0152 $ (conventional diesel is 0.0664 $) and for expensive unconventional oil 0.0361 $, whereas renewable hydrocarbons could potentially become more competitive with unconventional oil production (methanol 0.0540 $, biodiesel 0.0837 $, bioethanol 0.1933 $ for generating 1 kWh). Furthermore, we consider the main non-traditional and renewable energy sources of energy from the sun, wind, water, and biofuels, hydrogen, methane, gasoline, uranium, and others. There is a difference between the breakeven prices of conventional gas and biomethane (0.0057 $ and 0.047 - 0.15 $ respectively averaging 0.0675 $ per 1 kWh for biomethane) which is often related to the difference in their production methods. The main advantage of biomethane is environmentally friendly production. We also propose an assessment of fuel by environmental characteristics, where one of the hazardous sources Uranium is forth cheap 0.0069 $ per kWh, but the environmental damage caused by its waste is the greatest. At the same time hydropower is seven times more expensive than uranium, but it does not cause direct health damage issues, however influencing significantly ecosystem balance. Hydrogen fuel is the most expensive among others. Overall in Kazakhstan energy-producing from the sun, wind and biogas is more expensive comparing with global trends from 0.4 to 5.5 cents per 1 kWh, but remains cheaper for hydropower. In addition, based on the research findings we analyzed the potential for sustainable non-renewable and renewable energy development in the future for the case of the resource-based economy in Kazakhstan. 

How to cite: Ivakhnenko, A. and Bakytzhan, B.: Characterization of economic and ecological advantages and challenges in development of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon, non-hydrocarbon and renewable energy sources for resource-based economy in Kazakhstan, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21594, 2020.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces assessment reports on climate change, spanning physical climate science, climate impacts and adaptation, and mitigation. These reports draw upon scientific, technical and socio-economic information and are produced by interdisciplinary and international author teams. The reports, including their glossaries, are used by diverse audiences across the natural and social sciences, policy and practice, and education. IPCC report glossaries are an invaluable resource in their own right, covering the domains of each report and providing rigorous definitions for terms that are oft-used in public discourse.

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6), for which it has already released three Special Reports, and is currently preparing three Working Group (WG) Reports and a Synthesis Report to be released in 2021/22. Since each report and report chapter is written by a different author team, ensuring consistency in approach and conclusions across and within each report represents a key challenge. An important contribution towards achieving consistency is the development of single definitions for terms to be used across several reports. To facilitate the development of such definitions, the IPCC Secretariat and Technical Support Units have created custom software for internal author use, termed the Collaborative Online Glossary System (COGS). In addition, a public portal for IPCC glossaries (https://apps.ipcc.ch/glossary/) has been developed, where AR5 and approved AR6 report glossaries are hosted and can be readily searched. Here we discuss these tools within the context of interdisciplinary collaboration in climate change assessment. We also highlight the benefits of having consistent definitions when working more broadly at the water-energy-land nexus.

How to cite: Matthews, R., van Diemen, R., Weyer, N. M., and Baidya, J.: Interdisciplinary collaboration in the development of IPCC report glossaries, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10933, 2020.

Wood charcoal ranks amongst the most commercialized but least regulated commodities in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite its prevalence as an energy source for cooking and heating, the localized environmental and livelihood impacts of charcoal production are poorly understood. This research deficit is amplified by widespread negative views of this activity as a poverty-driven cause of deforestation and land-degradation. However, the charcoal-degradation nexus is apparently more complicated, not least because the extraction of biomass from already degraded woodlands can be sustainable under various management regimes. In a case study in Central Pokot, Kenya, where charcoal production began in earnest in the early 1990’s we have investigated the social and environmental dynamics that are interlinked with the production of charcoal. Our methodological approach integrates remote sensing techniques with empirically based social scientific analyses across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our results show that the area has undergone significant changes, both in the human and in the physical sphere. While the public opinion suggests a close connection between charcoal production and land degradation, a detailed Landsat-based land use and land cover change detection could not reveal a causal connection. In addition, a high-resolution analysis using an unmanned aerial system showed only minor effects of charcoal production on the vegetation. Our data indicates that rural small-scale production of charcoal has the potential to be transformed into a sustainable livelihood. Therefore, however, policy makers need to include their specific situation into the legal frameworks.

How to cite: Petersen, M., Bergmann, C., Roden, P., and Nüsser, M.: Social and environmental dynamics in a charcoal producing area: The case of Central Pokot, Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21784, 2020.