Climate predictions from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and their applications
Co-organized by AS1/ESSI4/HS13/NP5/OS1
Convener:
André Düsterhus
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Co-conveners:
Bianca MezzinaECSECS,
Leon Hermanson,
Leonard BorchertECSECS,
Panos J. Athanasiadis
Orals
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Wed, 30 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST) Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
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Attendance Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–18:00 Hall X5
The session welcomes contributions from dynamical models, machine-learning or other statistical methods and hybrid approaches. It will investigate predictions of various climate phenomena, including extremes, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales (including seamless predictions). Physical processes and sources relevant to long-term predictability (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) as well as predicting large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with teleconnections will be discussed. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework, and ensemble forecast initialization and generation will be another focus of the session. We are also interested in approaches addressing initialization shocks and drifts. The session welcomes work on innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions. We also invite contributions on the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for risk assessment, adaptation and further applications.
08:30–08:35
5-minute convener introduction
08:45–08:55
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EGU25-153
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On-site presentation
08:55–09:05
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EGU25-8980
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ECS
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On-site presentation
09:05–09:15
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EGU25-11024
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ECS
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On-site presentation
09:15–09:25
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EGU25-11511
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On-site presentation
09:25–09:35
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EGU25-11166
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ECS
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On-site presentation
09:35–09:45
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EGU25-6006
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ECS
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On-site presentation
09:55–10:05
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EGU25-3747
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On-site presentation
10:05–10:15
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EGU25-4533
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On-site presentation
Analysis of ocean process predictions in the Northeast Pacific coastal region using seasonal ensemble forecasts with a regional ocean-sea ice modeling system
(withdrawn)
Coffee break
Chairpersons: Panos J. Athanasiadis, Leonard Borchert, Leon Hermanson
10:45–11:05
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EGU25-5880
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solicited
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Virtual presentation
11:05–11:10
Discussion
11:10–11:20
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EGU25-12107
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On-site presentation
11:20–11:30
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EGU25-8904
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On-site presentation
11:30–11:40
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EGU25-7163
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On-site presentation
11:40–11:50
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EGU25-15772
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On-site presentation
11:50–12:00
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EGU25-12574
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On-site presentation
12:00–12:10
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EGU25-8693
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ECS
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On-site presentation
12:10–12:20
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EGU25-18643
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On-site presentation
12:20–12:30
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EGU25-18821
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On-site presentation
X5.167
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EGU25-3839
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ECS
Causal Links Between North Atlantic SSTs and Summer East Atlantic Pattern Predictability: Implications for Seasonal Forecasting
(withdrawn)
X5.168
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EGU25-14100
Data-driven assimilation and prediction of complex nonlinear dynamics withnovel quantum mechanical framework for Koopman operators
(withdrawn)
X5.171
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EGU25-10305
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ECS
X5.172
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EGU25-11149
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ECS
Predictability of Temperature Extremes in Multi-Annual Forecasts.
(withdrawn)
X5.176
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EGU25-13847
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ECS