Union-wide
Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
Disciplinary sessions AS–GM
Disciplinary sessions GMPV–TS

Session programme

CL

CL – Climate: Past, Present & Future

Programme group chair: Irka Hajdas

MAL14
Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture by Doug Smith
Convener: Irka Hajdas
Abstract
| Thu, 26 May, 15:20–15:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
MAL23
Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture by Hai Cheng
Convener: Irka Hajdas
Abstract
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–08:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
MAL34
CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture by Marlene Kretschmer
Convener: Irka Hajdas
Abstract
| Mon, 23 May, 17:05–17:15 (CEST)
 
Room E2
CL0

This open session includes papers dedicated to various aspects of climate research, including but not limited to :
1. Polar regions – climate, oceanography, tectonics, and geohazards
2. Changes and impacts of climate variability in South America
3. Reconstructions of Holocene sea-level changes from high to low latitudes

Convener: Irka Hajdas | Co-conveners: Elisabeth Dietze, Gabriele Messori, Jan-Berend Stuut
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room F2
DM6
Division meeting for Climate: Past, Present & Future (CL)
Convener: Irka Hajdas
Tue, 24 May, 12:00–13:00 (CEST)
 
Room F2

CL1 – Past Climates

CL1.1 – Deep Time

Programme group scientific officers: Jan-Berend Stuut, Elisabeth Dietze

CL1.1.1 EDI

The geological record provides insight into how climate processes operate and evolve in response to different than modern boundary conditions and forcings. Understanding deep-time climate evolution is paramount to progressing on understanding fundamental questions of Earth System feedbacks and sensitivity to perturbations, such as the behaviour of the climate system under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels—relative to the Quaternary—, or the existence of climatic tipping points and thresholds. In recent years, geochemical techniques and Earth System Models complexity have been greatly improved and several international projects on deep-time climates (DeepMIP, MioMIP, PlioMIP) have been initiated, helping to bridge the gap between palaeoclimate modelling and data community. This session invites work on deep-time climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions from the Cambrian to the Pliocene. We especially encourage submissions featuring palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, palaeoclimate modelling, and the integration of proxies and models of any complexity.

Co-organized by SSP2
Convener: Jean-Baptiste Ladant | Co-conveners: Yannick Donnadieu, Ran FengECSECS, Yongyun Hu, Zhongshi Zhang
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:42 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL1.1.3 EDI

Reconstructing the climates of past interglacials could improve our understanding and projections of future climate change. Notable examples of past interglacial variability include high sea levels during MIS11c, peak CO2 and CH4 levels during MIS9e and high temperatures over Antarctica during MIS5e. Interestingly, it appears that there is not a single interglacial in the last 800,000 years that experienced the warmest temperatures, the highest sea levels and the most elevated greenhouse-gas concentrations. Moreover, there are substantial differences between interglacials in ocean circulation, sea ice, vegetation, carbon cycle and regional climate. Indeed, when comparing various past interglacials, the variability between them is striking; hence the term interglacial diversity (Tzedakis et al., Nature, 2009). If we want to understand interglacial climate change, we need to understand what causes such diversity.

We therefore invite submissions that explore the characteristics of interglacial diversity. Moreover, we seek to understand the potential drivers of interglacial diversity, for instance insolation changes, the impact of the preceding deglaciation or modes of variability internal to the Earth system. We are particularly interested in new proxy records, compilations of existing data from a range of archives and new theoretical concepts or model experiments that can help to explain the observations. This session will bring together proxy-based, theoretical and/or modelling studies and targets the broader Earth system including changes in climate, ice sheets and the carbon cycle.

Convener: Pepijn Bakker | Co-conveners: Steve Barker, Qiuzhen Yin, Sarah ShackletonECSECS
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 15:10–16:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL1.1.4 EDI

The pacing of the global climate system by orbital variations is clearly demonstrated in the timing of e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles. The mechanisms that translate this forcing into geoarchives and climate changes continue to be debated. We invite submissions that explore the climate system response to orbital forcing, and that test the stability of these relationships under different climate regimes or across evolving climate states (e.g. mid Pleistocene transition, Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Miocene vs Pliocene, and also older climate transitions). Submissions exploring proxy data and/or modelling work are welcomed, as this session aims to bring together proxy-based, theoretical and/or modelling studies focused on global and regional climate responses to astronomical forcing at different time scales in the Phanerozoic.

Including Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture
Co-organized by SSP2
Convener: Christian Zeeden | Co-conveners: Stefanie Kaboth-BahrECSECS, Anne-Christine Da Silva, Matthias SinnesaelECSECS, Romain Vaucher
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
SSP2.4

Polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate variability and play a key role in global climate and environmental conditions through various feedback mechanisms. In this session we invite contributions dealing with all aspects of Phanerozoic (i.e. Cambrian to Holocene) geology from high latitude regions: stratigraphy, paleoenvironment, paleoclimate, and modelling

Co-organized by CL1.1
Convener: Madeleine Vickers | Co-convener: Kasia K. Sliwinska
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room -2.32/33
CR4.1 EDI

Ice sheets play an active role in the climate system by amplifying, pacing, and potentially driving global climate change over a wide range of time scales. The impact of interactions between ice sheets and climate include changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures and circulation, global biogeochemical cycles, the global hydrological cycle, vegetation, sea level, and land-surface albedo, which in turn cause additional feedbacks in the climate system. This session will present data and modelling results that examine ice sheet interactions with other components of the climate system over several time scales. Among other topics, issues to be addressed in this session include ice sheet-climate interactions from glacial-interglacial to millennial and centennial time scales, the role of ice sheets in Cenozoic global cooling and the mid-Pleistocene transition, reconstructions of past ice sheets and sea level, the current and future evolution of the ice sheets, and the role of ice sheets in abrupt climate change.

Co-organized by CL1.1/OS1
Convener: Heiko Goelzer | Co-conveners: Emily Hill, Alexander Robinson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Philippe Huybrechts
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:46 (CEST)
 
Room L3
SSP2.1 EDI

This session aims to showcase an exciting diversity of state-of-the-art advances in all aspects of Phanerozoic (Cambrian to Quaternary) stratigraphy, paleoceanography, and paleoclimatology. We invite case studies of organic and inorganic geochemistry, sedimentology, and paleontology from marine and terrestrial environments, as well as multidisciplinary and modeling studies. An emphasis is placed upon the use of a variety of tools for deciphering sedimentary records and their stratigraphy across intervals of major environmental change. We further invite contributions that provide insight into the evolution of the Earth on short and long timescales, including climate perturbations and their consequences.

Co-organized by CL1.1, co-sponsored by ICS and ISSC
Convener: David BajnaiECSECS | Co-conveners: Jens O. Herrle, Sietske Batenburg, David De Vleeschouwer
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room G2

CL1.2 – Last ~2.6 Ma

Programme group scientific officers: Jan-Berend Stuut, Carole Nehme

CL1.2.1 EDI

What role did climate dynamics play in human evolution, the dispersal of different Homo species within and beyond the African continent, and key cultural innovations? Were dry spells, stable humid conditions, or rapid climate fluctuations the main driver of human evolution and migration? In order to evaluate the impact that different timescales and magnitudes of climatic shifts might have had on the living conditions of prehistoric humans, we need reliable and continuous reconstructions of paleoenvironmental conditions and fluctuations from the vicinity of paleoanthropological and archaeological sites. The search for the environmental context of human evolution and mobility crucially depends on the interpretation of paleoclimate archives from outcrop geology, lacustrine and marine sediments. Linking archeological data to paleoenvironmental reconstructions and models becomes increasingly important.

As a contribution towards a better understanding of these human-climate interactions the conveners encourage submission of abstracts on their project’s research on (geo)archaeology, paleoecology, paleoclimate, stratigraphy, and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. We especially welcome contributions offering new methods for dealing with difficult archive conditions and dating challenges. We hope this session will appeal to a broad audience by highlighting the latest research on paleoenvironmental reconstructions in the vicinity of key sites of human evolution, showcasing a wide variety of analytical methods, and encouraging collaboration between different research groups. Conceptual models, modelling results and model-data comparisons are warmly welcomed, as collaborative and interdisciplinary research.

Co-organized by SSP1
Convener: Annett Junginger | Co-conveners: Verena E. FoersterECSECS, Christian Zeeden, Inka Meyer, Janina J. Nett
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 11:05–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL1.2.2 EDI

Tree rings are one of nature’s most versatile archives, providing insight into past environmental conditions at annual and intra-annual resolution and from local to global scales. Besides being valued proxies for historical climate, tree rings are also important indicators of plant physiological responses to changing environments and of long-term ecological processes. In this broad context we welcome contributions using one or more of the following approaches to either study the impact of environmental change on the growth and physiology of trees and forest ecosystems, or to assess and reconstruct past environmental change: (i) dendrochronological methods including studies based on tree-ring width, MXD or Blue Intensity, (ii) stable isotopes in tree rings and related plant compounds, (iii) dendrochemistry, (iv) quantitative wood anatomy, (v) ecophysiological data analyses, and (vi) mechanistic modelling, all across temporal and spatial scales.

Co-organized by BG3
Convener: Kerstin Treydte | Co-conveners: Elisabet Martinez-Sancho, Flurin Babst, Jernej Jevšenak
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:48 (CEST), 15:10–16:38 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL1.2.3 EDI

Speleothems and other continental carbonates (e.g. travertines, pedogenic, lacustrine, subglacial and cryogenic carbonates) are important terrestrial archives, which can provide precisely dated, high-resolution records of past environmental and climate changes. The field of carbonate-based paleoclimatology has seen (1) continuously improving analytical capacity, supporting the compilation of detailed records of climate variability integrating established as well as novel and innovative techniques. (2) Long-term environmental monitoring campaigns facilitating the interpretation of high-resolution proxy time series from carbonate archives. (3) The continuous development of proxy-system models that can help understand the measured proxies, by describing processes such as water infiltration, carbonate dissolution, precipitation and diagenesis. (4) The development of proxy databases such as SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and AnaLysis) which enable regional-to-global scale analysis of the relationship between the proxy and the environmental parameter using a variety of large data analysis and data-model comparison techniques.

Applied together, advancements in these cornerstones pave the way towards developing highly reliable and quantitative terrestrial climate reconstructions. This session aims to bring together integrated and interdisciplinary studies in order to better understand the precipitation environment of continental carbonates and the incorporation of climate-sensitive proxies at various time scales. We especially invite contributions that show progress in one of the four outlined domains, and welcome speleothem and carbonate-based modern and paleoenvironmental studies, including new records of past climatic changes. In addition, research contributing to current international co-ordinated activities, such as the PAGES working group on Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) and others are welcome.

Co-organized by SSP3, co-sponsored by PAGES
Convener: Sophie WarkenECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrea ColumbuECSECS, Nikita KaushalECSECS, Andrea Borsato, Franziska Lechleitner
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:07 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL1.2.4

The Sahara is widely recognised as the largest hot desert and the largest single source of mineral dust on the planet. Over the Quaternary it has periodically transformed through natural processes to a vegetated landscape capable of supporting flora and fauna and scattered human populations that are mostly absent today. This remarkable ‘greening’ was driven by variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun and resultant changes in the hydrological cycle, and was probably maintained by a range of feedbacks in the land-atmosphere-ocean system. Several critical research questions rely on a full understanding of these African Humid Periods (AHPs). For example, it remains to be shown whether the AHPs supported the migration of early hominids out of Africa. AHPs are thought to have terminated abruptly, and so a full characterisation of how these phases evolved is crucial for understanding abrupt climate change dynamics. AHPs also turn out to be a very stringent test of Earth System models (ESMs), with implications for how well ESMs can represent these regions under future conditions.

This session aims to bring together researchers from a range of backgrounds to share and discuss the latest findings around greening events in the Sahara as well as potential links with future climate change. We hope to foster interdisciplinary collaboration and motivate further research in this topic area. We welcome contributions based on archaeological findings, palaeoclimate reconstructions, Earth System modelling or climate theory. Abstracts that combine these fields or that focus on links with present-day and/or future climate in this region are also encouraged.

Convener: Peter Hopcroft | Co-conveners: Qiong Zhang, Katie Manning, Rachid Cheddadi, Pascale Braconnot
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:28 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL1.2.5 EDI

The half-century since the first deep ice core drilling at Camp Century, Greenland, has seen extensive innovation in methods of ice sample extraction, analysis and interpretation. Ice core sciences include isotopic diffusion analysis, multiple-isotope systematics, trace gases and their isotopic compositions, ice structure and physical properties, high-resolution analysis of major and trace impurities, and studies of DNA and radiochemistry in ice, among many others. Many climate and geochemical proxies have been identified from ice cores, with ongoing effort to extend their application and refine their interpretation. Great challenges remain in the field of ice coring sciences, including the identification of suitable sites for recovery of million-year-old ice; spatial integration of climate records (e.g. PAGES groups Antarctica2k and Iso2k); and deeper understanding of glaciological phenomena such as streaming flow, folding of layers and basal ice properties. This session welcomes all contributions reporting the state-of-the-art in ice coring sciences, including drilling and processing, dating, analytical techniques, results and interpretations of ice core records from polar ice sheets and mid- and low-latitude glaciers, remote and autonomous methods of surveying ice stratigraphy, and related modelling research.

Convener: Michael DyonisiusECSECS | Co-conveners: Michael DöringECSECS, Julien WesthoffECSECS, Amy KingECSECS, Anja Eichler
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 11:05–11:47 (CEST), 13:20–14:48 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL1.2.6 EDI

This session aims to place recently observed climate change in a long-term perspective by highlighting the importance of paleoclimate research spanning the past 2000 years. We invite presentations that provide insights into past climate variability, over decadal to millennial timescales, from different paleoclimate archives (ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial records, historical archives and more). In particular, we are focussing on quantitative temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions, and reconstructions of large-scale modes of climate variability from local to global scales. This session also encourages presentations on the attribution of past climate variability to external drivers or internal climate processes, data syntheses, model-data comparison exercises, proxy system modelling, and novel approaches to producing multi-proxy climate field reconstructions.

Co-organized by OS1
Convener: Steven Phipps | Co-conveners: Hugo Beltrami, Georgina Falster, Nikita KaushalECSECS, Andrea Seim
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:37 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
GM8.1 EDI

Arid to sub-humid regions are home for >40% of the world’s population, and many prehistoric and historic cultures developed in these regions. Due to the high sensitivity of drylands to small-scale environmental changes and anthropogenic activities, ongoing geomorphological processes but also the Late Quaternary geomorphological and palaeoenvironmental evolution as recorded in sediment archives are becoming increasingly relevant for geological, geomorphological, palaeoenvironmental, palaeoclimatic and geoarchaeological research. Dryland research is constantly boosted by technological methodological advances, and especially by emerging linkages with other climatic and geomorphic systems that allow using dryland areas as indicator-regions of global environmental changes.
This session aims to pool contributions that deal with current and former geomorphological processes and environmental changes, as well as with all types of sediment archives in dryland areas (dunes, loess, slope deposits, fluvial sediments, alluvial fans, lake and playa sediments, desert pavements, soils, palaeosols etc.) at different spatial and temporal scales. Besides case studies from individual regions and archives and review studies, methodical and conceptual contributions are especially welcome in this session, e.g. dealing with the special role of aeolian, fluvial, gravitational and biological processes in dryland environments, sediment preservation, methods to obtain chronological frameworks and process rates, emerging geo-technologies and the role of such processes for current and former societies.

Co-organized by CL1.2/SSP3
Convener: Hans von Suchodoletz | Co-conveners: Markus Fuchs, Joel Roskin, Abi StoneECSECS, Lupeng Yu
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 17:00–18:23 (CEST)
 
Room 0.16

CL2 – Present Climate – historical and direct observations period

Programme group scientific officer: Martin Wild

CL2.1 EDI

The radiation budget of the Earth is a key determinant for the genesis and evolution of climate on our planet and provides the primary energy source for life. Anthropogenic interference with climate occurs first of all through a perturbation of the Earth radiation balance. We invite observational and modelling papers on all aspects of radiation in the climate system. A specific aim of this session is to bring together newly available information on the spatial and temporal variation of radiative and energy fluxes at the surface, within the atmosphere and at the top of atmosphere. This information may be obtained from direct measurements, satellite-derived products, climate modelling as well as process studies. Scales considered may range from local radiation and energy balance studies to continental and global scales. In addition, related studies on the spatial and temporal variation of cloud properties, albedo, water vapour and aerosols, which are essential for our understanding of radiative forcings, feedbacks, and related climate change, are encouraged. Studies focusing on the impact of radiative forcings on the various components of the climate system, such as on the hydrological cycle, on the cryosphere or on the biosphere and related carbon cycle, are also much appreciated.

Convener: Martin Wild | Co-conveners: Jörg Trentmann, Maria Z. HakubaECSECS, Paul Stackhouse
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL2.2 EDI

ENSO and its interactions with other tropical basins are the dominant source of interannual climate variability in the tropics and across the globe. Understanding the dynamics, predictability, and impacts of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, and anticipating their future changes are thus of vital importance for society. This session invites contributions regarding all aspects of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, including: dynamics, multi-scale interactions; low frequency, decadal and paleo variability; theoretical approaches; ENSO diversity; global teleconnections; impacts on climate, society and ecosystems; seasonal forecasting and climate change projections of ENSO and its tropical basins interactions. Studies aimed at evaluating and improving model simulations of ENSO, the tropical mean state and the tropical basins interactions basin are especially welcomed.

Co-organized by NP5/OS1
Convener: Dietmar Dommenget | Co-conveners: Sarah Ineson, Nicola MaherECSECS, Yann PlantonECSECS
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:25 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
CL2.3

Large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics are the major driver of near surface climatic and environmental variability. Synoptic climatology examines atmospheric circulation dynamics and their relationship with near surface environmental variables. Within synoptic climatological analyses, a wide variety of methods is utilized to characterize atmospheric circulation (e.g., circulation and weather type classifications, regime analysis, teleconnection indices). Various linear and non-linear approaches (e.g., multiple regression, canonical correlation, neural networks) are applied to relate the circulation dynamics to diverse climatic and environmental elements (e.g., air temperature, air pollution, floods).
The session welcomes contributions from the whole field of synoptic climatology. This includes application studies focusing on various regions, time periods and target variables. In particular, we welcome contributions on development and comparison of methods (e.g., varying circulation type classifications) and conceptual approaches (e.g., circulation types versus circulation regimes).

Convener: Jan StryhalECSECS | Co-conveners: Christoph Beck, Andreas Philipp, Pedro M. Sousa
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL2.4 EDI

This session explores climate change, extremes, processes and their impacts at local to regional scales, and the tools employed to investigate these phenomena. In particular, we welcome submissions advancing the state-of-the-art in the development and application of high-resolution models (convection-permitting, grid spacing ≤ 4 km) and high-resolution sub-daily data sets. Other high-resolution data sets such as land-surface, vegetation or similar, and their impacts on local-scale climate change and extremes, are of further interest.

The session aims to bring together, amongst others, numerical modellers, the observational community and CORDEX-FPS participants, with the aim of advancing understanding of the aforementioned topics. Of particular interest are any new insights which are revealed through high-spatiotemporal-resolution modelling or data sets. For example: convective extremes, physical mechanisms, fine-scale and feedback processes, differences in climate change signal, scale-dependency of extremes, interactions across scales and land-atmosphere interactions. Further, we welcome studies that explore local-scale climate change in a variety of contexts whether they be past, present or future change.

Additional topics include, though are not limited to:
-- Mesoscale convective systems and medicanes
-- Event-based case studies (including surrogate climate change experiments or attribution)
-- Approaches for quantifying uncertainty at high resolutions including multi-model ensemble and combined dynamical-statistical approaches
-- High-resolution winds and their impacts
-- Convection, energy balance and hydrological cycle including vegetation
-- Model setup and parametrization, including sensitivity to resolution, land surface and dynamics
-- Tropical convection and convective processes at local to regional scale
-- Model evaluation and new evaluation metrics/methods
-- Physical understanding of added value over coarser models
-- Severe storms including supercell thunderstorms and hailstorms
-- The roles of natural and internal variability

Co-organized by AS1
Convener: Stefan Sobolowski | Co-conveners: Edmund MeredithECSECS, Douglas Maraun, Timothy RaupachECSECS, Erika Coppola
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room E2
CL2.5

Changes in seasonal timing affect species and ecosystem response to environmental change. Observations of plant and animal phenology as well as remote sensing and modeling studies document complex interactions and raise many open questions.
We invite contributions with cross-disciplinary perspectives that address seasonality changes based on recent plant and animal phenological observations, pollen monitoring, historical documentary sources, or seasonality measurements using climate data, remote sensing, flux measurements or modeling studies. Contributions across all spatial and temporal scales are welcome that compare and integrate seasonality changes, study effects of long-term climate change or single extreme events, emphasize applications and phenology informed decision-making, discuss species interactions and decoupling, advance our understanding of how seasonality change affects carbon budgets and atmosphere/biosphere feedbacks, and integrate phenology into Earth System Models.
We emphasize phenology informed applications for decision-making and environmental assessment, public health, agriculture and forest management, mechanistic understanding of the phenological processes, and effects of changing phenology on biomass production and carbon budgets. We also welcome contributions addressing international collaboration and program-building initiatives including citizen science networks and data analyses.

This session is organized by a consortium representing the International Society of Biometeorology (Phenology Commission), the Pan-European Phenology Network - PEP 725, the Swiss Academy of Science SCNAT, the TEMPO French Phenology Network and the USA National Phenology Network.

Convener: Helfried Scheifinger | Co-conveners: Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Christina Koppe, Yann Vitasse, Marie Keatley
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:20 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
OS1.8 EDI

Observations and model simulations illustrate significant ocean variability and associated air-sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic basin from daily-to-decadal time scales. This session is devoted to the understanding of ocean dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean, its interaction with the overlying atmosphere from the equator to the mid-latitudes and its climate impacts on adjacent to remote areas. Relevant processes in the ocean include upper and deep ocean circulation, eddies, tropical instability waves, warm pools, cold tongues and eastern boundary upwellings. We are interested in air-sea interactions related to both the seasonal cycle and the development of modes of variability from local to basin scale (e.g. the Meridional Mode, the Atlantic Niño, and the Benguela Niño). We welcome studies on wind variations related to the development of these modes, as well as studies on high-frequency events, such as marine heat waves, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones and convective systems. Furthermore, we seek studies on climate change in the region, and also of the climatic impacts of change and variability on marine ecosystems. Finally, we are also interested in contributions examining the causes and impacts of systematic model errors in simulating the local to regional Atlantic climate. Studies based on direct observations, reanalysis, reconstructions as well as model simulations are welcome.

Co-organized by AS2/CL2
Convener: Marta Martín-Rey | Co-conveners: Peter Brandt, Noel Keenlyside, Belen Rodríguez de Fonseca
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 1.15/16
OS1.9 EDI

The Indian Ocean is unique among the other tropical ocean basins due to the seasonal reversal of monsoon winds and concurrent ocean currents, lack of steady easterlies that result in a relatively deep thermocline along the equator, low-latitude connection to the neighboring Pacific and a lack of northward heat export due to the Asian continent. These characteristics shape the Indian Ocean’s air-sea interactions, variability, as well as its impacts and predictability in tropical and extratropical regions on (intra)seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales. They also make the basin particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change, as well as related extreme weather and climate events, and their impacts for surrounding regions, which are home to a third of the global population. Advances have recently been made in our understanding of the Indian Ocean’s circulation, interactions with adjacent ocean basins, and its role in regional and global climate. Nonetheless, significant gaps remain in understanding, observing, modeling, and predicting Indian Ocean variability and change across a range of timescales.

This session invites contributions based on observations, modelling, theory, and palaeo proxy reconstructions in the Indian Ocean that focus on recent observed and projected changes in Indian Ocean physical and biogeochemical properties and their impacts on ecological processes, diversity in Indian Ocean modes of variability (e.g., Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Ocean Basin Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation) and their impact on predictions, interactions and exchanges between the Indian Ocean and other ocean basins, as well as links between Indian Ocean variability and monsoon systems across a range of timescales. In particular, we encourage submissions on weather and climate extremes in the Indian Ocean, including marine heatwaves and their ecological impacts. We also welcome contributions that address research on the Indian Ocean grand challenges highlighted in the recent IndOOS Decadal Review, and as formulated by the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR), the Sustained Indian Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (SIBER), the International Indian Ocean Expedition 2 (IIOE-2), findings informed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) on past, present and future variability and change in the Indian Ocean climate system, and contributions making use of novel methodologies such as machine learning.

Co-organized by BG4/CL2
Convener: Caroline Ummenhofer | Co-conveners: Alejandra Sanchez-FranksECSECS, Peter SheehanECSECS, Yan Du, Muhammad Adnan AbidECSECS, Chunzai Wang, Stephanie A. HendersonECSECS, Roxy Mathew Koll, Cheng Sun
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 11:05–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 1.15/16
HS7.9 EDI

Traditionally, hydrologists focus on the partitioning of precipitation water on the surface, into evaporation and runoff, with these fluxes being the input to their hydrologic models. However, more than half of the evaporation globally comes back as precipitation on land, ignoring an important feedback of the water cycle if the previous focus applied. Land-use and water-use changes, as well as climate variability and change alter, not only, the partitioning of water but also the atmospheric input of water as precipitation, related with this feedback, at both remote and local scales.

This session aims to:
i. investigate the remote and local atmospheric feedbacks from human interventions such as greenhouse gasses, irrigation, deforestation, and reservoirs on the water cycle, precipitation and climate, based on observations and coupled modelling approaches,
ii. investigate the use of hydroclimatic frameworks such as the Budyko framework to understand the human and climate effects on both atmospheric water input and partitioning,
iii. explore the implications of atmospheric feedbacks on the hydrologic cycle for land and water management.

Typically, studies in this session are applied studies using fundamental characteristics of the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle on different scales. These fundamentals include, but are not limited to, atmospheric circulation, humidity, hydroclimate frameworks, residence times, recycling ratios, sources and sinks of atmospheric moisture, energy balance and climatic extremes. Studies may also evaluate different sources of data for atmospheric hydrology and implications for inter-comparison and meta-analysis. For example, observations networks, isotopic studies, conceptual models, Budyko-based hydro climatological assessments, back-trajectories, reanalysis and fully coupled earth system model simulations.

Co-organized by AS1/CL2
Convener: Ruud van der EntECSECS | Co-conveners: Lan Wang-ErlandssonECSECS, Gonzalo Miguez Macho, Fernando Jaramillo
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:55–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room L2
HS2.4.1 EDI

In the current context of global change, assessing the impact of climate variability and changes on hydrological systems and water resources is increasingly crucial for society to better-adapt to future shifts in water resources, as well as extreme conditions (floods and droughts). However, important sources of uncertainty have often been neglected in projecting climate impacts on hydrological systems, especially uncertainties associated with internal/natural climate variability, whose contribution to near-future changes could be as important as forced anthropogenic climate changes at the regional scales. Internal climate modes of variability (e.g. ENSO, NAO, AMO) and their impact on the continent are not always properly reproduced in the current global climate models, leading to large underestimations of decadal climate and hydro-climatic variability at the global scale. At the same time, hydrological response strongly depends on catchment properties, whose interactions with climate variability are little understood at the decadal timescales. These factors altogether significantly reduce our ability to understand long-term hydrological variability and to improve projections and reconstructions of future and past hydrological changes upon which improvement of adaption scenarios depends.

We welcome abstracts capturing recent insights for understanding past or future impacts of large-scale climate variability on hydrological systems and water resources as well as newly developed projection and reconstruction scenarios. Results from model intercomparison studies are encouraged.

Co-organized by CL2
Convener: Bastien Dieppois | Co-conveners: Hayley Fowler, Klaus Haslinger, Jean-Philippe Vidal
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room L2
AS1.16

Mountains cover approximately one quarter of the total land surface on the planet, and a significant fraction of the world’s population lives in their vicinity. Orography critically affects weather and climate processes at all scales and, in connection with factors such as land-cover heterogeneity, is responsible for high spatial variability in mountain weather and climate. Due to this high complexity, monitoring and modeling the atmosphere and the other components of the climate system in mountain regions is challenging both at short (meteorological) and long (climatological) time-scales. This session is devoted to the better understanding of weather and climate processes in mountain and high-elevation areas around the globe, as well as their modification induced by global environmental change.

We welcome contributions describing the influence of mountains on the atmosphere on meteorological time-scales, including terrain-induced airflow, orographic precipitation, land-atmosphere exchange over mountains, forecasting and predictability of mountain weather.
Contributions connected with the TEAMx research programme (http://www.teamx-programme.org/) are encouraged.

Furthermore, we invite studies that investigate climate processes and climate change in mountain areas and its impacts on dependent systems, based on monitoring and modeling activities. Particularly welcome are contributions that merge various sources of information and reach across disciplinary borders (atmospheric, hydrological, cryospheric, ecological and social sciences) and that connect to the Elevation-Dependent Climate Change (EDCC) working group of the Mountain Research Initiative (see https://www.mountainresearchinitiative.org/activities/community-led-activities/working-groups).

Co-organized by CL2
Convener: Ivana Stiperski | Co-conveners: Dino Zardi, Douglas Maraun, Stefano Serafin, Walter Immerzeel
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room M1, Wed, 25 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room M1
AS3.5

Chemistry and aerosols play a major role in determining surface air quality, the Earth’s energy budget, and climate change. Conversely, climate change affects atmospheric abundances of trace gases and aerosols through composition-climate interactions. This session focuses on global scale atmospheric chemistry and aerosol modelling, radiative forcing, and climate change through the historical period and into the future.
A better understanding of the role of natural aerosols in the atmosphere is essential for assessing climate changes. Our session explores primary aerosols and those formed from precursor gases emitted by natural sources, e.g. from wildfires, deserts, volcanoes, oceans, and vegetation. The session intends to bring together experts from different fields to assess the state-of-the-science knowledge on natural aerosols and to identify future directions to reduce uncertainty in their emissions and impacts. We encourage submissions that use models across different spatial scales and consider past, present or future perspectives, as well as measurements from remote sensing, field campaigns and laboratory experiments.

In particular, it aims to bring together scientists with an interest in:

1. Evaluating reactive gases and aerosols in models against observations

2. Quantifying the impact of emissions changes on atmospheric composition

3. Exploring chemistry-climate interactions in models, with a focus on climate feedbacks involving trace gases and aerosols

4. Quantifying radiative forcing and the climate response to changes in trace gas and aerosol concentrations

5. Distinguishing between truly natural aerosols and those whose emissions or formation are influenced by anthropogenic activities

6. Missing links in our understanding of the lifecycle of natural aerosols

7. The time evolution of contributions of natural aerosols to atmospheric composition and deposition
8. The consequences of changes in natural aerosols


The session welcomes contributions from those currently involved in analysis of recent and ongoing CMIP6 experiments focusing on the areas above,

Co-organized by CL2
Convener: William Collins | Co-conveners: Paul Griffiths, Fiona O'Connor, James KeebleECSECS, Christopher Smith, Stephanie Fiedler, Catherine Scott, Douglas HamiltonECSECS, Kerstin Schepanski
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:40 (CEST), 13:20–14:33 (CEST)
 
Room M1
AS4.4

This session is linked to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex), a multi-disciplinary, -scale and -component climate change, air quality, environment and research infrastructure and capacity building programme. It is aimed at resolving major uncertainties in Earth system science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic, Northern Eurasia and China regions. This session aims to bring together researchers interested in (i) understanding environmental changes effecting in pristine and industrialized Pan-Eurasian environments (system understanding); (ii) determining relevant environmental, climatic, and other processes in Arctic-boreal regions (process understanding); (iii) the further development of the long-term, continuous and comprehensive ground-based, air/seaborne research infrastructures together with satellite data (observation component); (iv) to develop new datasets and archives of the continuous, comprehensive data flows in a joint manner (data component); (v) to implement validated and harmonized data products in models of appropriate spatio-temporal scales and topical focus (modeling component); (vi) to evaluate impact on society though assessment, scenarios, services, innovations and new technologies (society component).
List of topics:
• Ground-based and satellite observations and datasets for atmospheric composition in Northern Eurasia and China
• Impacts on environment, ecosystems, human health due to atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition and chemical transformations of air pollutants in Arctic-boreal regions
• New approaches and methods on measurements and modelling in Arctic conditions;
• Improvements in natural and anthropogenic emission inventories for Arctic-boreal regions
• Physical, chemical and biological processes in a northern context
• Aerosol formation-growth, aerosol-cloud-climate interactions, radiative forcing, feedbacks in Arctic, Siberia, China;
• Short lived pollutants and climate forcers, permafrost, forest fires effects
• Carbon dioxide and methane, ecosystem carbon cycle
• Socio-economical changes in Northern Eurasia and China regions.
PEEX session is co-organized with the Digital Belt and Road Program (DBAR), abstracts welcome on topics:
• Big Earth Data approaches on facilitating synergy between DBAR activities & PEEX multi-disciplinary regime
• Understanding and remote connection of last decades changes of environment over High Asia and Arctic regions, both land and ocean.

Public information:

The session "Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) – Observation, Modelling and Assessment in the Arctic-Boreal Domain" is linked to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex), a multi-disciplinary, -scale and -component climate change, air quality, environment and research infrastructure and capacity building programme. It is aimed at resolving major uncertainties in Earth system science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic, Northern Eurasia and China regions. The session is co-organized with the Digital Belt and Road Program (DBAR).

This session aims to bring together researchers interested in (i) understanding environmental changes effecting in pristine and industrialized Pan-Eurasian environments (system understanding); (ii) determining relevant environmental, climatic, and other processes in Arctic-boreal regions (process understanding); (iii) the further development of the long-term, continuous and comprehensive ground-based, air/seaborne research infrastructures together with satellite data (observation component); (iv) to develop new datasets and archives of the continuous, comprehensive data flows in a joint manner (data component); (v) to implement validated and harmonized data products in models of appropriate spatio-temporal scales and topical focus (modeling component); (vi) to evaluate impact on society though assessment, scenarios, services, innovations and new technologies (society component).

Co-organized by BG1/CL2/GI4
Convener: Hanna Lappalainen | Co-conveners: Markku Kulmala, Alexander Baklanov, Alexander Mahura
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 15:55–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room F1
SSS5.3 EDI

Soil organic matter (SOM) is well known to exert a great influence on physical, chemical, and biological soil properties, thus playing a very important role in agronomic production and environmental quality. Globally SOM represents the largest terrestrial organic C stock, which can have significant impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus on climate. The changes in soil organic C content are the result of the balance of inputs and losses, which strongly depends on the processes of organic C stabilization and protection from decomposition in the soil. This session will provide a forum for discussion of recent studies on the transformation, stabilization and sequestration mechanisms of organic C in soils, covering any physical, chemical, and biological aspects related to the selective preservation and formation of recalcitrant organic compounds, occlusion by macro and microaggregation, and chemical interaction with soil mineral particles and metal ions.

Co-organized by BG3/CL2
Convener: César Plaza | Co-conveners: Beatrice Giannetta, Cristina Santin, Daniel Evans, José María De la Rosa, Carsten W. Mueller, Claudio Zaccone
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–18:20 (CEST)
 
Room D3

CL3 – Future Climate

CL3.1 – Climate change: from regional to global

Programme group scientific officer: Gabriele Messori

CL3.1.1 EDI

To address societal concerns over rising sea level and extreme events, understanding the contributions behind these changes is key to predict potential impacts of sea level change on coastal communities and global economy, and is recognized as one of the Grand Challenges of our time by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To continue this discussion, we welcome contributions from the international sea level community that improve our knowledge of the past and present changes in global and regional sea level, extreme events, and flooding, and produce improved predictions of their future changes.

We welcome studies on various drivers of sea level change and linkages between variability in sea level, heat and freshwater content, ocean dynamics, land subsidence from natural versus anthropogenic influences, and mass exchange between the land and the ocean associated with ice sheet and glacier mass loss and changes in the terrestrial water storage. Studies focusing on future sea level changes are also encouraged, as well as those discussing potential short-, medium-, and long-term impacts on coastal and deltaic environments, as well as the global oceans.

Co-organized by CR7/G3/OS1
Convener: Svetlana Jevrejeva | Co-conveners: Roger Creel, Mélanie Becker, Tim HermansECSECS, Marta Marcos
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:44 (CEST), 13:20–14:44 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL3.1.2 EDI

Detecting and attributing anthropogenic climate change in long-term observed climatic trends is an active area of research, seeking to identify ongoing changes in the climate system, and to quantify the contributions of various external forcing to these changes. Attributable trends, as well as a variety of other emerging constraints, can also be used to constrain climate projections. This science is better established for temperature related variables than for other climate indicator including hydrometeorological variables.

Complementary to this, assessing the extent to which extreme weather events, including compound events, are attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly developing science, with emerging schools of thought on the methodology and framing of such studies. Once again, the attribution of hydrometeorological events, is less straightforward than temperature-related events. The attribution of impacts, both for long-term trends and extreme events is even more challenging.

This session solicits the latest studies from the spectrum of detection and/or attribution approaches. By considering studies over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales we aim to identify common/new methods, current challenges, and avenues for expanding the detection and attribution community. We particularly welcome submissions that compare approaches, address hydrometerological trends, extremes, impacts, and/or assess implications of recent trends in terms of future changes – all of which test the limits of the present science.

Including CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
Convener: Aglae Jezequel | Co-conveners: Aurélien Ribes, Pardeep Pall, Seung-Ki Min, Nikolaos Christidis
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room E2
CL3.1.4 EDI

This session merges CL3.1.3 “Climate change and other drivers of environmental change: Developments, interlinkages and impacts in regional seas and coastal regions” focused on regional seas and coastal regions worldwide, and CL3.1.4 “Climate change in Mediterranean-type climate regions” focused on the Mediterranean-type climates, with a very similar scope: how climate change and other drivers affect these regions now and in the future.
Regional climate change interacts with many other man-made perturbations in both natural and anthropogenic coastal environments. Regional climate change is one of multiple drivers, which have a continuing impact on terrestrial, aquatic and socio-economic (resp. human) environments. These drivers interact with regional climate change in ways, which are not completely understood.
A Mediterranean-type climate is characterized by mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers as classified with the Koppen-Geiger approach that is well suited for identifying and analyzing the impacts of climate change on natural and anthropic ecosystems. Mediterranean climate regions (MCRs) are located in transitional midlatitude regions like the Mediterranean basin area, western coastal North America and small coastal areas of western South America, southern Africa and southern Australia. The transitional character with sharp spatial gradients makes them highly vulnerable to climate change. For all MCRs, the future holds high risks and uncertainty on issues like loss in biodiversity, increase in aridity, ecological change, requiring innovative approaches to climate adaptation and mitigation.
This session focuses on the connections and interrelations between climate change and other drivers of environmental change in MCRs, regional seas and coastal regions. It intends to strengthen the exchanges among the communities involved to better understand and share commonalities and differences and to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of the complicated interplay of different factors affecting climate change. This exchange may help identify and prepare shared solutions and practices. Studies focused on physical (including extremes, teleconnections, hydrological cycle) and biogeochemical (including biodiversity) aspects of Mediterranean and other coastal climate regions, focusing on observed past changes, future climate projections, as well as related social aspects including indigenous knowledge in mitigating climate risks will be treated.

Co-organized by AS1/BG1/NH10
Convener: Annalisa Cherchi | Co-conveners: Marcus Reckermann, Ute Daewel, Bikem EkberzadeECSECS, Richard Seager, Markus Meier, Helena Filipsson, Andrea Alessandri
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
BG1.8 EDI

The Earth’s subsurface hosts enormous methane volumes trapped in geologic reservoirs, gas hydrates and permafrost, locally escaping the sediment at cold seeps to enter the hydrosphere/atmosphere.
Such environments are highly sensitive to climate change. Despite an increasing awareness about the positive feedback between global warming and methane seepage, the response of these complex and dynamic systems to climate change is still unclear due to complex geo/hydro/atmosphere interactions.
Fossil cold seeps, long-term observatory studies and modern examples form the foundations to understand the mutual dependences between climate and seepage, and to develop robust models to forecast future scenarios at the Earth-system scale. For this session, we welcome geologists, geophysicists, geochemists, biologists, model developers, and any others who have contributed to new case studies in modern and fossil hydrocarbon seeps in the marine and terrestrial environment, gas hydrate and permafrost settings, to describe both new methods/technologies and the scientific outcomes.

Co-organized by CL3.1
Convener: Claudio ArgentinoECSECS | Co-conveners: Miriam Römer, Davide Oppo, Giuliana Panieri
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–14:43 (CEST)
 
Room C
GM10.2 EDI

It becomes increasingly accepted that many regions all over the world are experiencing an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events and potentially in their properties. For predicting the impact of future climate change on the landscape, it is therefore vital to understand the dynamics of surface processes under extreme events. Furthermore, focusing on the conditions necessary for extreme events to occur can provide key insights into past changes in climate at different time scales. Extreme storms cause a multitude of hydrogeomorphic and natural hazards responses, including floods and respective fluvial responses, hillslope erosion and failures, and debris flows from slopes into fluvial systems. Measuring, evaluating, and predicting the impacts of extreme rainstorms, however, remains challenging due to the difficult-to-predict and complex nature of storms and rainfall-surface interactions.
This interdisciplinary session focuses on the causative chain which links the deterministic and mostly stochastic nature of the synoptic to meso/regional and watershed scales of extreme storms, to their respective transformation into watershed, slope, and stream hydrology, and to their geomorphic impact. We welcome studies from all the parts of this chain, from all climates, and at all temporal scales, that are focusing on the hydrological responses to extreme events and on their imprints on the landscape through erosion and sediment movement. We favor studies with emphasis on the final noticeable impact of extreme events on the landscape and/or on the integrated long-term consequences of extreme storm regime on landscape evolution. Especially, we encourage studies presenting new physical/stochastic modeling approaches that explicitly investigated the impact of extreme events on the landscape.

Co-organized by CL3.1/HS13/NH1
Convener: Yuval Shmilovitz | Co-conveners: Francesco Marra, Efrat Morin, Yehouda Enzel, Roberta Paranunzio
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 11:05–11:40 (CEST)
 
Room G2

CL3.2 – Climate and Society

Programme group scientific officers: Irka Hajdas, Julia Hargreaves

CL3.2.1 EDI

As the most evident example of land use and land-cover change, urban areas play a fundamental role in local to large-scale planetary processes, via modification of heat, moisture, and chemical budgets. With rapid urbanization ramping up globally it is essential to recognize the consequences of landscape conversion to the built environment. Given the capability of cities to serve as first responders to global change, considerable efforts are currently being dedicated across many cities to monitor and understand urban atmospheric dynamics and examine various adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed to offset impacts of rapidly expanding urban environments and influences of large-scale greenhouse gas emissions.

This session solicits submissions from both the observational and modelling communities examining urban atmospheric and landscape dynamics, processes and impacts owing to urban-induced climate change, the efficacy of various strategies to reduce such impacts, and techniques highlighting how cities are already using novel science data and products that facilitate planning and policies on urban adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of climate change. Emerging topics including, but not limited to, compounding impacts with urban COVID-19 outbreaks, citizen science and crowdsourcing, or urban-climate informatics, are highly encouraged.

Co-organized by AS2
Convener: Hendrik Wouters | Co-conveners: Sorin Cheval, Daniel Fenner, Matei Georgescu, Natalie TheeuwesECSECS
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL3.2.2 EDI

Remaining carbon budgets specify the maximum amount of CO2 that may be emitted while stabilizing warming at a particular level (such as the 1.5 °C target), and are thus of high interest to the public and policymakers. Estimates of the remaining carbon budget comes with associated uncertainties, which are accounted for with various methods. These uncertainties increase in relative terms as more ambitious targets are being considered, or as emission reductions continue to be delayed, making practical implementation of remaining carbon budgets challenging.

This session aims to further our understanding of the climate response under various emission scenarios, with particular interest in emission pathways entailing net-zero targets, with meeting various levels of warming. We invite contributions that use a variety of tools, including fully coupled Earth System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, or simple climate model emulators, that advance our knowledge of remaining carbon budgets and net-zero targets. .

We welcome studies exploring different aspects of climate change in response to future emissions. In addition to studies exploring carbon budgets and the TCRE framework, we welcome contributions on the zero emissions commitment, the governing mechanisms behind linearity of TCRE and its limitations, effects of different forcings and feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases), estimates of the remaining carbon budget to reach a given temperature target (for example, the 1.5 °C warming level from the Paris Agreement), the role of pathway dependence and emission rate, the climate-carbon responses to different emission scenarios (e.g. SSP scenarios, idealized scenarios, or scenarios designed to reach net-zero emission level), and the behaviour of TCRE in response to artificial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (i.e. CDR or negative emissions). Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets and benefits of early mitigation are also encouraged.

Co-organized by BG8
Convener: Andrew MacDougall | Co-conveners: Katarzyna (Kasia) TokarskaECSECS, Joeri Rogelj, Kirsten Zickfeld
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL3.2.3 EDI

Understanding the impact of climate change on natural and socio-economic outcomes plays an important role in informing a range of national and international policies, including energy, agriculture and health. However economic models of (and those designed to include) climate impacts that guide decision makers rely on multiple components, for example projections of future climate change, damage functions, and policy responses, each of which comes with its own modelling challenges and uncertainties.

We invite research using process-based (e.g., Integrated Assessment Models) and empirical models of climate change to investigate future human and natural impacts, together with policy evaluation to explore effective mitigation, technology and adaptation pathways. Furthermore, we invite research on changes to, and new developments of climate-economic and econometric modelling.

Convener: Luke Jackson | Co-conveners: Felix Pretis, Susana Campos-MartinsECSECS, Sam Heft-Neal, David Stainforth
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
CL3.2.4

In 2015, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate recognized the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system, with planetary-scale human impacts constituting a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene. Earth system resilience critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes. These include dynamics and interactions between the carbon cycle, the atmosphere, oceans, large-scale ecosystems, and the cryosphere, as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities.

With rising anthropogenic pressures, there is an increasing risk we might be hitting the ceiling of some of the self-regulating feedbacks of the Earth System, and cross tipping points which could trigger large-scale and partly irreversible impacts on the environment, and impact the livelihood of millions of people. Potential domino effects or tipping cascades could arise due to the interactions between these tipping elements and lead to a further decline of Earth resilience. At the same time, there is growing evidence supporting the potential of positive (social) tipping points that could propel rapid decarbonization and transformative change towards global sustainability.

In this session we invite contributions on all topics relating to tipping points in the Earth system, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interaction and domino effects. We are particularly interested in various methodological approaches, from Earth system modelling to conceptual modelling and data analysis of nonlinearities, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

Co-organized by CR7/NP8/OS1
Convener: Ricarda Winkelmann | Co-conveners: Jonathan Donges, Victor Brovkin, Sarah Cornell, Timothy Lenton
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 11:05–11:47 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32, Wed, 25 May, 13:20–14:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL3.2.5 EDI

Agriculture is an important sector of any economy of the world. Agriculture productions are highly dependent on the climate change and variability. Changes in hydro-meteorological variables can influence crop yield and productivity at many places. Further, climate change can influence nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and other terrestrial parameters related to the agricultural productivity. Changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods could pose challenges for farmers and ranchers and threaten food safety. Further, changes in climate can influence meteorological conditions and thus can influence the crop growth pattern. It may also influence irrigation scheduling and water demand of the crops. The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and technology.

The purpose of the proposed session is to gather scientific researchers related to this topic aiming to highlight ongoing researches and new applications in the field of climate change and agriculture. In this framework, original works concerned with the development or exploitation of advanced techniques for understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture will be invited.

The conveners of this session will encourage both applied and theoretical research in this area.

Convener: Prashant Kumar Srivastava | Co-conveners: R K Mall, Manika GuptaECSECS, Salim LamineECSECS, Sanjeev Srivastava
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–17:42 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL3.2.6

Extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters and emergent risks are becoming increasingly critical in the context of global environmental change and interact with other stressors. They are a potential major threat to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and one of the most pressing challenges for future human well-being.
This session explores the linkages between extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters, societal dynamics and resilience. Emphasis is laid on 1) Which impacts are caused by extreme climate events (including risks emerging from compound events) and cascades of impacts on various aspects of ecosystems and societies? 2) Which feedbacks across ecosystems, infrastructures and societies exist? 3) What are key obstacles towards societal resilience and reaching the SDGs, while facing climate extremes? 4) What can we learn from past experiences? 5) What local to global governance arrangements best support equitable and sustainable risk reduction?
We welcome empirical, theoretical and modelling studies from local to global scale from the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, humanities and related disciplines.

Co-organized by NH10, co-sponsored by Future Earth
Convener: Markus Reichstein | Co-conveners: Kailin HatlestadECSECS, Colin Raymond, Kai KornhuberECSECS, Jana Sillmann, Dorothea Frank, Felix Riede
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:46 (CEST), 13:20–14:42 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL3.2.8 EDI

With recent extreme events reaching far beyond existing records, such as the Pacific Northwest heat wave and severe flooding in Western Europe, eastern US and across China, the discussion to what extent we are prepared for unprecedented extremes and whether existing methods and models are able to capture them has flared up. It is becoming increasingly essential to understand and quantify plausible rare, high-impact events for risk management and adaptation.
Methods to understand and evaluate low-likelihood extreme events have seen substantial advancements over the recent years. Event attribution studies are now providing rapid analyses of unprecedented extreme events; physical climate storylines are developed to evaluate plausible rather than likely events; causal inference is used to understand drivers of very rare events; near-miss events and potential analogues in space, historical and paleo archives are evaluated; spatial extreme value analysis and machine learning methods are applied, large ensembles representing various outcomes are generated, such as Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs); and weather prediction systems are increasingly being employed, such as the through the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) approach.
This session aims to bring together communities from weather prediction, climate projection, hydrology to impact and risk management, and to learn from the variety of methods to understand and quantify low-likelihood extreme events in the present and future climate. The session welcomes contributions at all temporal and spatial scales, and all types of extremes and invites novel methods – including downward counterfactuals and causal inference – as well as new results on unforeseen climate risks – including those from compound events and low-likelihood high-warming outcomes.

Co-organized by AS4/HS13/NH1
Convener: Timo KelderECSECS | Co-conveners: Erich Fischer, Laura Suarez-GutierrezECSECS, Karin van der Wiel
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
ERE1.4 EDI

Climate change is debated most often for its environmental and socioeconomic repercussions; however, it also has a dramatic impact on tangible cultural heritage worldwide. The safeguard and fruition of cultural assets – outdoors or indoors, and either on land, underground, or underwater – are jeopardized by the current and expected environmental changes. The behavior of the component materials varies likewise, in response to global warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and the increase of extreme weather events.
This session addresses the climate change risk to cultural heritage from the interdisciplinary perspective of geosciences, which represent a valuable support for investigating the properties and durability of the materials (e.g., stones, ceramics, mortars, pigments, glasses, and metals); their vulnerability and the changes in weathering dynamics; the key environmental variables (pertaining to climate, microclimate, air pollution, water and soil composition) and the effects of extreme events; the techniques and products to improve conservation practices; and the adaptation measures for heritage protection. This session welcomes contributions based on approaches including but not limited to field and laboratory analysis and testing; damage assessments and simulations; modelling of risk scenarios and decay trends; strategies of monitoring and remote investigation; and processing of environmental databases.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Luigi GerminarioECSECS | Co-conveners: Alessandra Bonazza, Peter Brimblecombe
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–17:42 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
NH9.11 EDI

The current scientific consensus links climate change to devastating consequences for society including natural hazards, heatwaves, floods, droughts and hurricanes. Yet, potential solutions requiring collaboration between communities, local actors and scientists continue to face considerable structural, spatial, temporal and definitional challenges.
Structural challenges: Political and micro-political aspects and how they interact with structural inequalities are important to understand vulnerability and the disproportionate impacts of climate change induced extreme events.
Spatial challenges: At the local level, providing usable information for people is challenging particularly in the poorest regions of the world. While hazards can be explored with weather and climate data. overall risk can only be assessed by balancing location-specific information and data which is often inaccessible or under researched.
Temporal challenge: Often climate change impacts have not been monitored consistently or according to the best available science and data. Particularly in the global South and developing economies, these temporal challenges make effective adaptation challenging.
Definitional challenge: vulnerability across time-space is defined in diverse ways. Many approaches tend to use hazard, exposure and vulnerability interchangeably. Whereas the assessment of local vulnerability is only possible by combining natural and social sciences with stakeholder engagement, prevailing interventions miss one or the other resulting in limited possibility for project sustainability Furthermore, a universal conceptualization or approach to vulnerability is yet to be presented.
Local adaptation solutions to these challenges do exist and could be used as models to be transferred to other regions. For example, UNESCO-designated sites such as Biosphere Reserves and UNESCO Global Geoparks provide solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation based on inclusive, transparent, and empowering governance processes, in line with sustainable development.
We welcome research on locally produced and scientifically robust solutions to these structural, spatial, temporal and definitional challenges. Particularly abstracts focusing on 1) the quantification of hazards, risks, and impacts that matter for the identified community, 2) conceptual frameworks and tools to assess vulnerability and exposure, 3) approaches to monitor impacts and 4) case studies that showcase local solutions.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Emily Boyd | Co-conveners: Martha Marie VogelECSECS, Simphiwe Laura Stewart
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
AS1.11

This session investigates mid-latitude cyclones and storms on both hemispheres. We invite studies considering cyclones in different stages of their life cycles from the initial development, to large- and synoptic-scale conditions influencing their growth to a severe storm, up to their dissipation and related socioeconomic impacts.
Papers are welcome, which focus also on the diagnostic of observed past and recent trends, as well as on future storm development under changed climate conditions. This will include storm predictability studies on different scales. Finally, the session will also invite studies investigating impacts related to storms: Papers are welcome dealing with vulnerability, diagnostics of sensitive social and infrastructural categories and affected areas of risk for property damages. Which risk transfer mechanisms are currently used, depending on insured and economic losses? Which mechanisms (e.g. new reinsurance products) are already implemented or will be developed in order to adapt to future loss expectations?

Co-organized by CL3.2/NH1
Convener: Gregor C. Leckebusch | Co-conveners: Jennifer Catto, Joaquim G. Pinto, Uwe Ulbrich
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room M2
HS7.3 EDI

Hydroclimatic conditions and availability of water resources in space and time constitute important factors for maintaining adequate food supply, the quality of the environment, and the welfare of citizens and inhabitants, in the context of a post-pandemic sustainable growth and economic development. This session is designed to explore the impacts of hydroclimatic variability, climate change, and temporal and spatial availability of water resources on different factors, such as food production, population health, environment quality, and local ecosystem welfare.
We particularly welcome submissions on the following topics:
• Complex inter-linkages between hydroclimatic conditions, food production, and population health, including: extreme weather events, surface and subsurface water resources, surface temperatures, and their impacts on food security, livelihoods, and water- and food-borne illnesses in urban and rural environments.
• Quantitative assessment of surface-water and groundwater resources, and their contribution to agricultural system and ecosystem statuses.
• Spatiotemporal modeling of the availability of water resources, flooding, droughts, and climate change, in the context of water quality and usage for food production, agricultural irrigation, and health impacts over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales.
• Smart infrastructure for water usage, reduction of water losses, irrigation, environmental and ecological health monitoring, such as development of advanced sensors, remote sensing, data collection, and associated modeling approaches.
• Modelling tools for organizing integrated solutions for water supply, precision agriculture, ecosystem health monitoring, and characterization of environmental conditions.
• Water re-allocation and treatment for agricultural, environmental, and health related purposes.
• Impact assessment of water-related natural disasters, and anthropogenic forcing (e.g. inappropriate agricultural practices, and land usage) on the natural environment (e.g. health impacts from water and air, fragmentation of habitats, etc.)

Co-organized by CL3.2/ERE1/NH8/NP8
Convener: Elena Cristiano | Co-conveners: Alin Andrei Carsteanu, George Christakos, Andreas Langousis, Hwa-Lung Yu
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 13:20–15:55 (CEST)
 
Room L2
BG1.2

Fire is an essential feature of terrestrial ecosystems and an important component of the Earth system. Climate, vegetation, and human activity regulate fire occurrence and spread, but fires also feedback to them in multiple ways. This session welcomes contributions that explore the role of fire in the Earth system at any temporal and spatial scale using modeling, field and laboratory observations, proxy-records, and/or remote sensing. We encourage all abstracts that advance our understanding on interactions between fire and (1) weather, climate, as well as atmospheric chemistry and circulation, (2) biogeochemical, energy, and water cycles, (3) vegetation composition and structure, (4) pyrogenic carbon, including effects on soil functioning and soil organic matter dynamics, (5) cryosphere (e.g. permafrost, sea ice), and (6) humans (e.g., impact of fire on air and water quality, freshwater resources, human health, land use and land cover change, fire management). We also welcome contributions focusing on fire characterization, including (7) fire behavior and emissions (e.g. fire duration, emission factors, emission height, smoke transport), (8) spatial and temporal changes of fire regimes in the past, present, and future, (9) fire products and models, and their validation, error/bias assessment and correction, and (10) analytical tools designed to enhance situational awareness among fire practitioners and early warning systems.

Co-organized by AS4/CL3.2/NH7
Convener: Fang Li | Co-conveners: Angelica Feurdean, Renata Libonati, Gabriel SigmundECSECS, Sander Veraverbeke
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 15:10–18:06 (CEST)
 
Room C
EOS1.8 EDI

Climate change (CC) and ocean degradation (OD) are among the greatest threats to humanity. Climate impacts the ocean in massive ways; the ocean is the climate’s most powerful regulator. Separately or combined, they impact every living being and ecological niche, with poorer communities suffering disproportionately. In turn, flora and fauna (incl humans) are suffering. CC and OD are affecting the cryosphere, biodiversity, and food and water security. Given that humans are the prime cause of this devastating change taking us beyond our planetary boundaries, geoethical issues come to the fore.

The 2020 EGU Declaration of the Significance of Geoscience highlights the need for massive and widespread action to help people around the world to become literate about the changes affecting their and their offsprings’ and communities’ lives. The more people are literate about these changes, the more they can make informed decisions, adapt and mitigate. Previous General Assemblies have addressed climate change literacy (CL). Ocean literacy (OL) has developed strongly in recent years, especially with impetus from the UN Ocean Decade. Ocean-climate literacy (OCL) is an imperative that needs to be addressed massively and urgently, both within and beyond the EGU.

We invite colleagues to submit contributions on any aspects of OCL; this can, of course, include CL (without the ocean) and OL (without the climate). We welcome papers related, eg, to learning processes/experiences, instructional materials, curricular innovation, learning games, citizen initiatives, Ocean Decade activities, evaluation, well-used methods, novel approaches and policies, eg, 1. make OCL an essential component in all subjects and at all levels of education; 2. require all people in positions of responsibility (eg, mayors, teachers, doctors, CEOs, ministers, et al) to pass exams on the basics of climate and/or ocean before taking office. Of particular interest are literacy actions that bring in geoethical dimensions. (If your paper is primarily on geoethics, then a better home is the EGU session on geoethics.) The broad aims of such OCL might include encouraging an intergenerational outlook, developing a sense of the geoethical dimensions of OCL, understanding complexities and implementing solutions.

This session is an opportunity for ECSs, scientists, educators, policy influencers, learning resource developers and other practitioners to share their experience, expertise and research on CL and OL.

Public information:

All participants in our session EOS1.8, Climate & ocean literacy, are invited to our Townhall Meeting, TM8, starting 19h, with the title Exploring the nexus of geoethics and climate change education:  https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/session/44689.  To help enrich this TM, we urge you also to attend the earlier session on geoethics EOS4.1, starting at 13h20,  https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/session/43042.

Advance notice of a special guest.  We have been working behind the scenes to enable Dr Svitlana Krakovska, Senior Scientist, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and IPCC author, to attend our session, where she may say a few words.  To know more, see https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/09/ukraine-climate-scientist-russia-invasion-fossil-fuels.  We also expect her to attend our TM8 (see above), where she may do an informal presentation.

Co-organized by CL3.2/OS1, co-sponsored by IAPG
Convener: David Crookall | Co-conveners: Giuseppe Di Capua, Bärbel Winkler, Mario MascagniECSECS, Francesca Santoro
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.14
NH10.1 EDI

This session aims to share innovative approaches to developing multi-hazard risk assessments and their components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity), and to explore their applications to disaster risk reduction.

Effective disaster risk reduction practices and the planning of resilient communities requires the evaluation of multiple hazards and their interactions. This approach is endorsed by the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessments look at interaction mechanisms among different natural hazards, and how spatial and temporal overlap of hazards influences the exposure and vulnerability of elements at risk. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with multi-hazard risk scenarios needs to be considered, particularly in the context of climate change and slow-onset hazards, such as Covid-19 and pandemics in general, characterized by dynamic changes in exposure and vulnerability that are challenging to quantify.

This session, therefore, aims to profile a diverse range of multi-hazard risk and impact approaches, including hazard interactions, multi-vulnerability studies, and multi-hazard exposure characterization. In covering the whole risk assessment chain, we propose that it will be easier to identify potential research gaps, synergies and opportunities for future collaborations.

We encourage abstracts which present innovative research, case study examples and commentary throughout the whole disaster risk cycle on (i) multi-hazard risk methodologies which address multi-vulnerability and multi-impact aspects; (ii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard risk management and inclusive risk-informed decision making and planning; (iii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard disaster scenario definition and management for (near) real-time applications; (iv) cross-sectoral approaches to multi-hazard risk, incorporating the physical, social, economic, and/or environmental dimensions; (v) uncertainty in multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessment; (vi) evaluation of multi-hazard risk under future climate and slow-onset hazards, including pandemics; (vii) implementation of disaster risk reduction measures within a multi-hazard perspective.

Co-organized by CL3.2/HS13
Convener: Marleen de RuiterECSECS | Co-conveners: Stefano TerziECSECS, Faith Taylor, Annie Winson, Silvia De Angeli
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:47 (CEST), 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Climate impact and adaptation research has made considerable progress in various fields in the recent years. However, the concrete implementation on the ground needs to be improved.
Local decision makers are facing several challenges with regard to climate adaptation. At the center of this process lies the coupling of climate, impact and risk (incl. vulnerability) models in order to identify future climate risk levels. Finding and correctly using the necessary data in climate impacts and risks assessments and planning for climate action is not without challenges for specialists from other fields.
While climate modelling and technical integration of diverse model data are crucial, social science as well as interdisciplinary perspectives are essential to assess local adaptation capacities, the costs and benefits of adaptive measures and to ensure the usability and transferability of the climate services. Similarly important is capacity building and trainings on properly using, interpreting and communicating climate and impact information.
This session touches upon innovative ways to address theses challenges. It also supports exchange on experiences in impact and adaptation studies, using all kinds of climate data. Former participants from the C3S ULS and IS-ENES3 training events are particularly encouraged to join.
This session discusses approaches and challenges towards the support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Central to the discussion is the question how such services can be developed in a stringent co-design process that integrates different natural and social science disciplines as well as users and practitioners. We are therefore seeking for contributions that discuss:
• Actionable services for regional decision-making in regional climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction and challenges in the interaction between researchers and decision makers
• New scientific insights into regional climate and impact modelling (data interfaces and harmonization)
• Assessing local climate adaptation capacities and measures in an integrated way
• New insights into transdisciplinary processes in climate change adaptation
• Data availability for climate impact studies and methods for dealing with limited data availability as well as the opposite, a large number of seemingly similar datasets.
• Experiences with existing tools or newly developed tools for data processing

Co-organized by NH10
Convener: Jörg Cortekar | Co-conveners: Judith Klostermann, Janette Bessembinder, Stefan Kienberger
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–15:52 (CEST)
 
Room N1
NH3.4

Global warming is unequivocal: the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events increased since the mid-20th century in all regions in which observational data were sufficient for trend analysis. And heavy precipitations and related effects are projected to intensify and be more frequent in most regions.
In this framework, particular attention should be paid to all the ground events triggered by rainfall, among which landslides and soil erosion.
Changes in temperature also have been shown to affect the hydraulic and mechanical behavior of soils and rocks in multiple ways, suggesting the importance of monitoring and modelling thermal variables alongside the hydraulic ones.
The influence of climate variables on the triggering, frequency, and severity of slope failures and soil erosion can be different according to the area, the time horizon of interest, and the specific trends of weather variables. Similarly, land use/cover change can play a pivotal role in exacerbating or reducing such hazards.
Thus, the overall impacts depend on the region, spatial scale, time frame, and socio-economic context addressed. However, even the simple identification of the weather patterns regulating the occurrence of such phenomena represents a not trivial issue, also assuming steady conditions, due to the crucial role played by geomorphological details. To support hazards’ monitoring, predictions, and projections, last-generation and updated datasets with high spatio-temporal resolution and quality - as those from the Copernicus Services’ Portals - are useful to feed models, big-data analytics, and indicators’ frameworks enabling timely, robust, and efficient decision making.
The Session aims at presenting studies concerning ongoing to future analysis on the impact of climate change on landslide triggering and dynamics, and soil erosion hazard, across different geographical contexts and scales. Either investigations including analyses of historical records and related climate variables, or modeling approaches driven by future climate exploiting downscaled output of climate projections are welcome. Studies assessing variations in severity, frequency, and/or timing of events and consequent risks are valuable.
Moreover, a focus on all aspects of landslide thermo-hydro-mechanics, from experimental studies to field and remote-sensing monitoring, from microstructural analyses to geomechanical modelling at various spatial and temporal scales, is proposed.

Co-organized by CL3.2/SSS2
Convener: Stefano Luigi Gariano | Co-conveners: Guido Rianna, Monia Santini, Alfredo RederECSECS, Séverine Bernardie, Gianvito ScaringiECSECS, Luigi Lombardo, Carolina Segui
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:46 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
BG3.14

Land use and land cover change (LULCC), including land management, has the capacity to alter the climate by disrupting land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water and energy. Thus, there is a particular interest in understanding the role of LULCC as it relates to climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Much attention has been devoted to the biogeochemical impacts of LULCC, yet there is an increasing awareness that the biogeophysical mechanisms (e.g. changes in surface properties such as albedo, roughness and evapotranspiration) should also be considered in climate change assessments of LULCC impacts on weather and climate. However, characterizing biogeophysical land-climate interactions remains challenging due to their complexity. If a cooling or a warming signal emerges depends on which of the biogeophysical processes dominates and on the size and pattern of the LULCC perturbation. Recent advances exploiting Earth system modelling and Earth observation tools are opening new possibilities to better describe LULCC and its effects at multiple temporal and spatial scales. This session invites studies that improve our general understanding of climate perturbations connected to LULCC from both biogeophysical and biogeochemical standpoints, and particularly those focusing on their intersection. This includes studies focusing on LULCC that can inform land-based climate mitigation and adaptation policies. Both observation-based and model-based analyses at local to global scales are welcome.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Gregory Duveiller | Co-conveners: Ryan Bright, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Alan Di Vittorio, Julia Pongratz
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 2.95
ITS3.1/SSS1.2 EDI

Citizen science (the involvement of the public in scientific processes) is gaining momentum across multiple disciplines, increasing multi-scale data production on Earth Sciences that is extending the frontiers of knowledge. Successful participatory science enterprises and citizen observatories can potentially be scaled-up in order to contribute to larger policy strategies and actions (e.g. the European Earth Observation monitoring systems), for example to be integrated in GEOSS and Copernicus. Making credible contributions to science can empower citizens to actively participate as citizen stewards in decision making, helping to bridge scientific disciplines and promote vibrant, liveable and sustainable environments for inhabitants across rural and urban localities.
Often, citizen science is seen in the context of Open Science, which is a broad movement embracing Open Data, Open Technology, Open Access, Open Educational Resources, Open Source, Open Methodology, and Open Peer Review. Before 2003, the term Open Access was related only to free access to peer-reviewed literature (e.g., Budapest Open Access Initiative, 2002). In 2003 and during the “Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities”, the definition was considered to have a wider scope that includes raw research data, metadata, source materials, and scholarly multimedia material. Increasingly, access to research data has become a core issue in the advance of science. Both open science and citizen science pose great challenges for researchers to facilitate effective participatory science, yet they are of critical importance to modern research and decision-makers.

We want to ask and find answers to the following questions:
Which approaches and tools can be used in Earth and planetary observation?
What are the biggest challenges in bridging between scientific disciplines and how to overcome them?
What kind of participatory citizen scientist involvement (e.g. how are citizen scientists involved in research, which kind of groups are involved) and open science strategies exist?
How to ensure transparency in project results and analyses?
What kind of critical perspectives on the limitations, challenges, and ethical considerations exist?
How can citizen science and open science approaches and initiatives be supported on different levels (e.g. institutional, organizational, national)?

Co-organized by BG2/CL3.2/ERE1/ESSI3/GM12/GMPV1/HS12/NH9/OS4/SM1/SSP1
Convener: Taru Sandén | Co-conveners: Daniel DörlerECSECS, Florian HeiglECSECS, Dilek FraislECSECS, Tamer Abu-Alam
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room N1
ITS4.4/ERE1.10 EDI

Nature-Based Solutions and Climate Engineering in Climate Governance

As reaching the Paris agreement goal of limiting the global mean surface warming even below 2ºC becomes increasingly difficult with only emission reduction, additional measures complementing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions to limit global warming gain more attention: Nature-based Solutions and Climate Engineering.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained popularity as a set of integrated approaches that contribute to climate change adaptation, slowing further global warming, supporting ecosystem services and biodiversity, while promoting sustainable development. To achieve the full potential of NbS to address climate change, there is an urgent need for multidisciplinary teams of scientists to articulate solutions that engage policy makers and enable NbS interventions to reduce carbon emissions while benefiting human well-being. This will require systemic change in the way we conduct research, promote collaboration between institutions and with policy makers.

Climate Engineering (CE) is much more controversial. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) aims at removing CO2 from the atmosphere through techniques such as ocean fertilization, artificial upwelling or enhanced weathering. CE has been criticized for creating potentially dangerous side effects, distracting from the root cause of climate change (GHG emissions), and being difficult to govern. So what, if any, should be the future role of CDR and SRM in the climate governance toolbox and to what extent should CE research have high priority? which knowledge gaps must be addressed before a decision for or against these techniques can be taken?
This session aims to advance knowledge of innovative NbS approaches for more inclusive and resilient communities from inter-disciplinary perspectives.

Specific topics include, but are not limited to:
— Benefits: The potential of NbS and CE to help achieving climate goals
— Feasibility: Tools and best practices enabling successful implementation and upscaling of NbS; impact assessment of real-life NbS projects, especially for the Global South and developing countries; and technical feasibility and risks in implementing CE
— Viability: Cost-benefit analysis of NbS and CE to multiple Sustainable Development Goals
— Governance: New NBS governance models and co-creation approaches and tools; and regional and global challenges and solutions for fair and inclusive governance of CE.

Co-organized by CL3.2/SSS12
Convener: Haozhi Pan | Co-conveners: Claudia WienersECSECS, Herman Russchenberg, Henk A. Dijkstra, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Zahra Kalantari, Stephan Barthel, Carla S. S. Ferreira
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:18 (CEST)
 
Room N1
HS8.1.8 EDI

The proper management of blue and green water is vital for sustainable livelihoods in drylands (i.e. hyper—arid, arid, semi—arid and dry sub—humid lands), where any productive activity is structurally and deeply related to the understanding of soil hydrological behaviour. In these areas groundwater is usually the primary source for drinking water supply and irrigation so that water management is critical to the water-food-energy security nexus.
Irrigation, in particular, should be regarded as a fundamental element of any agroecosystem and an effective defence against desertification. This as a consequence of the fact that on one hand traditional irrigation is often a cultural heritage, which requires to be faced with an interdisciplinary approach, while on the other hand incorrect irrigation techniques may lead to soil and groundwater salinization, with dramatic fallout on agricultural productivity.
Also, due to local shifts in climate and in the hydrological cycle, or global changes such as population growth and changes in land use, drylands and regions with high water stress are expected to expand globally: for example, catchments in Central Europe with continental climate and decreasing precipitation in summer periods are likely to be new areas subjected to water stress.

This session welcomes contributions ranging from the understanding of the soil hydrological behaviour and of the mass fluxes through the soil in drylands and environments under stress conditions to the identification of the consequences of a changing environment for better future management, protection, and sustainable use of water resources in drylands.
This includes adapted modelling techniques coupling climate models with hydrological models or with soil water and groundwater models, or studies dealing with groundwater quantity and quality, the interaction between irrigation and soil hydrology, and the design of irrigation systems in arid districts and oases, also involving non—conventional waters (e.g. water harvesting). Particular attention will be given to traditional irrigation techniques as well as to precision irrigation techniques, also with local community involvement.

Due to a frequently associated data scarcity issue in dry regions, methodologies and strategies addressing uncertainty and limited data availability are of interest for this session. Interdisciplinary contributions and contributions from appropriate field observational studies are encouraged as well.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Martin Sauter | Co-conveners: Noam Weisbrod, Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Mira HaddadECSECS, Marco PeliECSECS
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:55–18:22 (CEST)
 
Room 2.31
ITS3.5/NP3.1 EDI

The virus is still with us, with more potent variants. It remains the most immediate challenge for geosciences and health, including its impacts on geoscience development (data collection, training, dissemination) and the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, in particular that urban systems should increase well-being and health.

Long-term visions based on transdisciplinary scientific advances are therefore essential. As a consequence, this session, like the ITS1.1 session in 2021, calls for contributions based on data-driven and theory-based approaches to health in the context of global change. This includes :
- main lessons from lockdowns?
- how to get the best scientific results during a corona pandemic?
- how to manage field works, geophysical monitoring and planetary missions?
- qualitative improvements in epidemic modelling, with nonlinear, stochastic, and complex system science approaches;
- eventual interactions between weather and/or climate factors and epidemic/health problems
- new surveillance capabilities (including contact tracing), data access, assimilation and multidimensional analysis techniques;
- a fundamental revision of our urban systems, their greening and their need for mobility;
- a special focus on urban biodiversity, especially to better manage virus vectors;
- urban resilience must include resilience to epidemics, and therefore requires revisions of urban governance.

Co-organized by AS4/BG8/CL3.2/ESSI4/GI1/NH8, co-sponsored by AGU and AOGS
Convener: Daniel Schertzer | Co-conveners: Tommaso Alberti, Klaudia Oleshko, Hongliang Zhang
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:55–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room N1

CL4 – Climate studies across timescales

Programme group scientific officers: Carole Nehme, Elisabeth Dietze

CL4.1 EDI

Land–atmosphere interactions often play a decisive role in shaping climate extremes. As climate change continues to exacerbate the occurrence of extreme events, a key challenge is to unravel how land states regulate the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, intense precipitation and other extreme events. This session focuses on how natural and managed land surface conditions (e.g., soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation state, surface albedo, snow or frozen soil) interact with other components of the climate system – via water, heat and carbon exchanges – and how these interactions affect the state and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Moreover, emphasis is placed on the role of these interactions in alleviating or aggravating the occurrence and impacts of extreme events. We welcome studies using field measurements, remote sensing observations, theory and modelling to analyse this interplay under past, present and/or future climates and at scales ranging from local to global but with emphasis on larger scales.

Co-organized by AS2/BG9/HS13
Convener: Wim ThieryECSECS | Co-conveners: Adriaan J. (Ryan) Teuling, Diego G. Miralles, Sonia Seneviratne, Gianpaolo Balsamo
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:17 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL4.2 EDI

Adapting to climate change in the Mediterranean region represents a key socio-economic and environmental challenge. Different levels of exposure and vulnerability as well as different projected changes characterize the Mediterranean region. Understanding the past, characterizing the present and modelling the future are therefore essential steps to estimate the risks, assess the impacts of climate change, and identify potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. This multidisciplinary MedCLIVAR session encourages contributions from a broad range of disciplines and topics, e.g. dealing with: dynamics and processes of the climate system; sectoral impacts of climate change; climate change adaptation and mitigation; innovative methods and approaches in climate science. The session focuses on all time scales from paleoclimate to future model projections as well as on all relevant socio-economic sectors.

Convener: Andrea Toreti | Co-conveners: Ana Bastos, Andreia Ribeiro, Piero Lionello
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
CL4.3 EDI

An increasing number of single model large ensemble simulations from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM) have been generated over recent years, to investigate internal variability and forced changes of the climate system — and to aid the interpretation of the observational record by providing a range of historical climate trajectories that could have been. The increased availability of large ensembles also enables new and inter-disciplinary applications beyond large-scale climate dynamics.

This session invites studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles looking at the following topics: 1) Reinterpretation of the observed record in light of internal variability; 2) forced changes in internal variability; 3) development of new approaches to attribute and study observed events or trends; 4) impacts of natural climate variability; 5) assessment of extreme and compound event occurrence; 6) combining single model large ensembles with CMIP archives for robust decision making; 7) large ensembles as testbeds for method development.

We welcome research across all components of the Earth system. Examples include topics ranging from climate dynamics, hydrology and biogeochemistry to research on the role of internal variability in impact studies, focused for example on agriculture, air pollution or energy generation and consumption. We particularly invite studies that apply novel methods or cross-disciplinary approaches to leverage the potential of large ensembles.

Co-organized by HS13/NH10/OS1
Convener: Laura Suarez-GutierrezECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrea DittusECSECS, Raul R. WoodECSECS, Karin van der Wiel, Flavio Lehner
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL4.7 EDI

Analysis of the energy transfers between and within climate components has been at the core of many step changes in the understanding of the climate system. Large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycle and heat/moisture transports are tightly intertwined through radiative and heat energy absorption and transports that are sensitive to multiple forcings and feedbacks. Cross-equatorial energy exchanges by the ocean and atmosphere couple Hadley Circulation and Atlantic Overturning circulation, modulating the location and intensity of the ITCZ and the amount of precipitation in monsoon regions. In the extra-tropics, Rossby waves affect the distribution of precipitation and eddy activity, shaping the meridional heat transport from the low latitudes towards the Poles through intermittent events of persistent and co-located blockings and the occurrence of extreme heat waves or cold outbreaks. In the ocean, understanding of energy transfers from large-scale circulation to the internal wave field, through mesoscale and submesoscale eddies, is the basis for the development of new parameterizations and significant modelling advances.
We invite submissions addressing the interplay between Earth’s energy exchanges and the general circulation using modeling, theory, and observations. We encourage contributions on the forced response and natural variability of the general circulation, understanding present-day climate and past and future changes, and impacts of global features and change on regional climate.

Co-organized by NP2/OS1
Convener: Roberta D'AgostinoECSECS | Co-conveners: Valerio Lembo, David Ferreira, Rune Grand Graversen, Joakim Kjellsson
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL4.8 EDI

Arctic sea ice and high latitude atmosphere and oceans have experienced significant changes over the modern observational era. The polar climate is crucial for the Earth’s energy and water budget, and its variability and change have direct socio-economic and ecological impacts. Thus, understanding high-latitude variability and improving predictions of high latitude climate is highly important for society. Long-term variability in ocean and sea ice are the largest sources for predictability in high latitudes. Dynamical model predictions are not yet in the position to provide us with highly accurate predictions of the polar climate. Main reasons for this are the lack of observations in high latitudes, insufficient initialization methods and shortcomings of climate models in representing some of the important climate processes in high latitudes.

This session aims for a better understanding and better representation of the mechanisms that control high latitude variability and predictability of climate in both hemispheres from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales in past, recent and future climates. Further, the session aims to discuss ongoing efforts to improve climate predictions at high latitudes at various time scales (e.g., usage of additional observations for initialization, improved initialization methods, impact of higher resolution, improved parameterizations, novel verification approaches) and potential teleconnections of high latitude climate with lower latitude climate. We also aim to link polar climate variability and predictions to potential ecological and socio-economic impacts and encourage submissions on this topic.

The session offers the possibility to present results from ongoing projects and research efforts on the topic of high-latitude climate variability and prediction, including, but not limited to, the WMO Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), NordForsk-project ARCPATH, MOSAiC, and the H2020-projects APPLICATE, INTAROS, BlueAction, and KEPLER.

This session has greatly benefited by the expansion via added contributions from the CL4.11 session on "Arctic climate change: governing mechanisms and global implications" that specifically aims to identify, characterize and quantify the processes and feedbacks that govern amplified Arctic warming and sea ice retreat, and it also addresses the climate impacts on the lower latitudes associated with Arctic changes.

Co-organized by CR7/OS1
Convener: Neven-Stjepan Fuckar | Co-conveners: Richard Bintanja, Torben Koenigk, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Sam Cornish
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 11:00–11:49 (CEST), 13:20–14:51 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL4.9 EDI

The Arctic Realm is changing rapidly and the fate of the cryosphere, including Arctic sea ice, glaciers and ice caps, is a source of concern. Whereas sea ice variations impact the radiative energy budget, thus playing a role in Arctic amplification, the Greenland Ice Sheet retreat contributes to global sea level rise. Moreover, through various processes linking the atmosphere, ice and ocean, the change in the Arctic realm may modify the atmospheric and ocean circulation at regional to global scales, the freshwater budget of the ocean and deep-water formation as well as the marine and terrestrial ecosystems, including productivity. The processes and feedbacks involved operate on all time scales and it require a range of types of information to understand the processes, drivers and feedbacks involved in Arctic changes, as well as the land-ocean-cryosphere interaction. In this session, we invite contributions from a range of disciplines and across time scales, including observational (satellite and instrumental) data, historical data, geological archives and proxy data, model simulations and forecasts, for the past, present and future climate. The common denominator of these studies will be their focus on a better understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks on short to long time scales that drive Arctic and subarctic changes and their impact on climate, ocean and environmental conditions, at regional to global scales, including possible links to weather and climate outside the Arctic.

Co-organized by CR7/OS1
Convener: Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz | Co-conveners: Anne de Vernal, Michal Kucera, Henrieka DetlefECSECS, Katrine Elnegaard HansenECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room F2
AS1.8 EDI

The subtropics present unique regional hydroclimates across the globe, with strong influence from both tropical and mid-latitude dynamics and an extensive interplay between atmospheric thermodynamics, dynamics, and coupled ocean processes. With dependence on both tropical and extratropical processes, subtropical regions are emerging as hotspots of contemporary climate change. These hotspots reflect the paleoclimatological records of high climate sensitivity in subtropical climes (e.g. Green Sahara and Arabia, pluvials in the drylands of southern Africa, Australia). The complexity of subtropical climates present fundamental challenges to develop coherent theories of subtropical climate dynamics, resulting in large uncertainties in climate model simulations. To address these gaps in the understanding of the subtropical climate, we invite contributions focused on subtropical processes and their simulation including:
• diagonal convergence zones
• tropical-extratropical interactions
• subtropical jet fluctuations
• interplays between monsoons and mid-latitude transients
• weather and climate extremes in the subtropics
• analyses of climate simulations looking into past, present and future change in the subtropics
• development of bespoke climate services based on advances in subtropical theory and prediction

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Neil Hart | Co-conveners: Marcia ZilliECSECS, Josephine Brown, Benjamin Lintner, Caio Coelho
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.11/12
GM7.3 EDI

Mountain glaciations have a long research heritage since they provide an invaluable record for past and present climate change. However, complex glaciological conditions, geomorphological processes and topography can make regional and intra-hemispheric correlations challenging. This problem is further enhanced by ongoing specialisation within the scientific community, whereby working groups often focus on individual aspects or selected mountain regions, thus frequently remain disconnected.

The main incentive for this session is to evaluate the potential of mountain glaciation records and stimulate further discussion to work towards bridging between specialised research communities. Contributions on all relevant aspects are welcomed, including (but not limited to): (a) glacial landforms and glacier reconstructions, (b) dating techniques and glacier chronologies, (c) glaciology and palaeoclimatic interpretations, (d) impacts on ecosystems and human society.

A special regional focus within the session will be dedicated to the Andean Cordillera and topics such as glaciers and palaeoclimatic records from the Andean Cordillera or model-data comparisons that aim to improve projections of future climate and ice-mass behaviour in the Andes and beyond.

Submissions involving interdisciplinary studies, complex interactions or highlighting the specific conditions of mountain glaciations, from continental to maritime regions at any latitude, are encouraged. The potential of related studies should be highlighted alongside strategies to tackle existing challenges as this will enable the session to fully address the diversity of the topic.

In past years, precursors of this session have steadily become a popular platform for everyone interested in the emerging collaborative research network, “The Legacy of Mountain Glaciations”. This network continues to grow, and we hope the 2022 session will provide an opportunity to meet and exchange new ideas and expertise.

Co-organized by CL4/CR5
Convener: Stefan Winkler | Co-conveners: Bethan Davies, Danni Pearce, Jacob BendleECSECS, Emma Cooper, Neil Glasser, Giovanni Monegato, Rachel OienECSECS, Jürgen Reitner
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room G2
AS3.10

The interactions between aerosols, climate, and weather are among the large uncertainties of current atmospheric research. Mineral dust is an important natural source of aerosol with significant implications on radiation, cloud microphysics, atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle via the fertilization of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, properties of dust deposited in sediments and ice cores are important (paleo-)climate indicators.

This interdivisional session --building bridges between the EGU divisions CL, AS, SSP, BG and GM-- had its first edition in 2004 and it is open to contributions dealing with:

(1) measurements of all aspects of the dust cycle (emission, transport, deposition, size distribution, particle characteristics) with in situ and remote sensing techniques,

(2) numerical simulations of dust on global, regional, and local scales,

(3) meteorological conditions for dust storms, dust transport and deposition,

(4) interactions of dust with clouds and radiation,

(5) influence of dust on atmospheric chemistry,

(6) fertilization of ecosystems through dust deposition,

(7) any study using dust as a (paleo-)climate indicator, including sediment archives in loess, ice cores, lake sediments, ocean sediments and dunes.

We especially encourage the submission of papers that integrate different disciplines and/or address the modelling of past, present and future climates.

Co-organized by BG1/CL4/GM8/SSP3, co-sponsored by ISAR
Convener: Martina Klose | Co-conveners: Abi StoneECSECS, Jan-Berend Stuut, Mingjin Tang
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–14:36 (CEST)
 
Room 0.11/12
NP3.2 EDI

The Earth's climate is highly variable on all spatial and temporal scales, and this has direct consequences for society. For example, changes in variability (spatial or temporal) can impact the recurrence frequency of extreme events. Yet it is unclear if a warmer future is one with more or with less climate variability, and at which scales, as a multitude of feedbacks is involved and the instrumental record is short.

The session is multidisciplinary and brings together people working in the geosciences, atmospheric science, oceanography, glaciology, paleoclimatology and environmental physics, to examine the complementarity of ideas and approaches. Members of the PAGES working group on Climate Variability Across Scales (CVAS) and others are welcome.

This session also aims to nurture the development of fractals, multifractals and related nonlinear methodologies applicable to a wide range of geophysical systems and their multiscale interactions. Theories considering scalar and vector fields, applications ranging from urban geosciences (e.g., land use patterns, water management, ecosystems) to atmospheric and oceanic turbulence (e.g., wind energy, mesoscale scaling anisotropy) and climate (e.g., multiscale evolution of extremes), analysis of in-situ, remotely sensed and simulated data are of interest.

Our aim is to provide a forum to present work on:

1- the characterization of climate dynamics using a variety of techniques (e.g. scaling and multifractal techniques and models, recurrence plots, or variance analyses) to study its variability including periodicities, noise levels, or intermittency)

2- the relationship between changes in the mean state (e.g. glacial to interglacial or preindustrial to present to future), and higher-order moments of relevant climate variables, to changes in extreme-event occurrence and the predictability of climate

3- the role of ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and land-surface processes in fostering long-term climate variability through linear – or nonlinear – feedbacks and mechanisms

4- the attribution of climate variability to internal dynamics, or the response to natural (volcanic or solar) and anthropogenic forcing

5- the interaction of external forcing (e.g. orbital forcing) and internal variability such as mechanisms for synchronization and pacing of glacial cycles

6- the characterization of probabilities of extremes, including linkage between slow climate variability and extreme event recurrence

Co-organized by CL4, co-sponsored by PAGES
Convener: Raphael HébertECSECS | Co-conveners: Arun RamanathanECSECS, Heather AndresECSECS, Rudy Calif, Jisun Lee, Shaun Lovejoy, Klaudia Oleshko, Kira Rehfeld
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–14:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
OS1.7

The North Atlantic exhibits a high level of natural variability from interannual to centennial time scales, making it difficult to extract trends from observational time series. Climate models, however, predict major changes in this region, which in turn will influence sea level and climate, especially in western Europe and North America. In the last years, several observational projects have been focused on the Atlantic circulation changes, for instance ACSIS, RACE, RAPID, OSNAP, and OVIDE. Another important issue is the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean as well as the cryosphere with the ocean, and how this affects the climate.

We welcome contributions from observers and modelers on the following topics:

-- climate relevant processes in the North Atlantic region in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere
-- response of the atmosphere to changes in the North Atlantic
-- atmosphere - ocean coupling in the North Atlantic realm on time scales from years to centuries (observations, theory and coupled GCMs)
-- interpretation of observed variability in the atmosphere and the ocean in the North Atlantic sector
-- comparison of observed and simulated climate variability in the North Atlantic sector and Europe
-- dynamics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
-- variability in the ocean and the atmosphere in the North Atlantic sector on a broad range of time scales
-- changes in adjacent seas related to changes in the North Atlantic
-- role of water mass transformation and circulation changes on anthropogenic carbon and other parameters
-- linkage between the observational records and proxies from the recent past

Co-organized by AS1/CL4
Convener: Richard Greatbatch | Co-conveners: Damien Desbruyeres, Caroline Katsman, Bablu Sinha
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–16:34 (CEST)
 
Room L3
OS1.11 EDI

The interaction between the ocean and the cryosphere in the Southern Ocean has become a major focus in climate research. Antarctic climate change has captured public attention, which has spawned a number of research questions, such as: Is Antarctic sea ice becoming more vulnerable in a changing climate? Where and when will melting of ice shelves by warm ocean waters yield a tipping point in Antarctic climate? What role do ice-related processes play in nutrient upwelling on the continental shelf and in triggering carbon export to deep waters? Recent advances in observational technology, data coverage, and modeling provide scientists with a better understanding of the mechanisms involving ice-ocean interactions in the far South. Processes on the Antarctic continental shelf have been identified as missing links between the cryosphere, the global atmosphere and the deep open ocean that need to be captured in large-scale and global model simulations.

This session calls for studies on physical and biogeochemical interactions between ice shelves, sea ice and the ocean. The ice-covered Southern Ocean and its role in the greater Antarctic climate system are of major interest. This includes work on all scales, from local to basin-scale to circumpolar. Studies based on in-situ observations and remote sensing as well as regional to global models are welcome. We particularly invite cross-disciplinary topics involving physical and biological oceanography, glaciology or biogeochemistry.

Co-organized by BG4/CL4/CR6
Convener: Torge Martin | Co-conveners: Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice BarthelECSECS, Ralph Timmermann
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST), 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room N2
OS1.4 EDI

Ocean ventilation is a process by which water properties imprinted by the atmosphere onto the upper ocean, such as oxygen, carbon dioxide and trace gases, are transported into the ocean interior. In mediating the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean, ventilation plays an important role in both climate variability and biogeochemical cycles. This is manifested, for example, through the supply of oxygen to the ocean interior, transport and sequestration of nutrients, and the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon and heat in the ocean interior. Increased stratification - caused by the warming on the upper ocean under climate change - could lead to a reduction of ocean ventilation over the coming decades. However, the mechanism by which the changes in ocean ventilation will emerge, and their consequences for climate feedback, biogeochemical processes, and ocean ecosystems are not well known.

Developing our understanding of ocean ventilation is inhibited by the wide range of spatial scales inherent in the process, from small-scale mixing to basin scale. Robust projection of future change requires deeper insight into the processes driving ventilation, the spatial and temporal variability of ventilation, and the consequences and impacts of ventilation changes.

We invite contributions that advance understanding on the broad topic of ocean ventilation, its potential to change in a warming climate, and the consequences therein. We seek contributions that investigate both the physical processes involved in ocean ventilation — from small-scale mixing, to mesoscale stirring, to basin scale subduction — as well as the consequences for biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems. We welcome contributions from process-oriented studies as well as those that assess and quantify variability and projected changes, and welcome studies making use of observations, theory and/or numerical model.

The session is expected to be in a hybrid format, partly taking place in Vienna in a traditional format, and partly online.

Co-organized by BG4/CL4
Convener: Ilaria Stendardo | Co-conveners: Ivy FrengerECSECS, Elisa LovecchioECSECS, Graeme MacGilchristECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 1.15/16
OS1.6 EDI

The rapid decline of the Arctic sea ice in the last decade is a dramatic indicator of climate change. The Arctic sea ice cover is now thinner, weaker and drifts faster. Freak heatwaves are common. On land, the permafrost is dramatically thawing, glaciers are disappearing, and forest fires are raging. The ocean is also changing: the volume of freshwater stored in the Arctic has increased as have the inputs of coastal runoff from Siberia and Greenland and the exchanges with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. As the global surface temperature rises, the Arctic Ocean is speculated to become seasonally ice-free by the mid 21st century, which prompts us to revisit our perceptions of the Arctic system as a whole. What could the Arctic Ocean look like in the future? How are the present changes in the Arctic going to affect and be affected by the lower latitudes? What aspects of the changing Arctic should observational, remote sensing and modelling programmes address in priority?

In this session, we invite contributions from a variety of studies on the recent past, present and future Arctic. We encourage submissions examining interactions between the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice, on emerging mechanisms and feedbacks in the Arctic and on how the Arctic influences the global ocean. Submissions taking a cross-disciplinary, system approach and focussing on emerging cryospheric, oceanic and biogeochemical processes and their links with land are particularly welcome.

The session supports the actions of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) towards addressing challenges for sustainable development in the Arctic and its diverse regions. We aim to promote discussions on the future plans for Arctic Ocean modelling and measurement strategies, and encourages submissions on the results from IPCC CMIP and the recent observational programs, such as the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC). This session is cosponsored by the CLIVAR /CliC Northern Ocean Regional Panel (NORP) that aims to facilitate progress and identify scientific opportunities in (sub)Arctic ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere research.

Drs Karen Assmann and Wilken-Jon von Appen are the solicited speakers for the session. Karen Assmann will be presenting on physical and ecological implications of Arctic Atlantification. Wilken-Jon von Appen will be talking about eddies in the Arctic Ocean.

Co-organized by AS2/BG4/CL4/CR6, co-sponsored by NORP
Convener: Yevgeny Aksenov | Co-conveners: Céline Heuzé, Paul A. Dodd, Krissy Reeve, Yufang Ye
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room E2, Thu, 26 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room E2
NP2.4 EDI

The dynamics of the Earth system and its components is highly nonlinear. In particular, several subsystems have been suggested to react abruptly at critical levels of anthropogenic forcing. Well-known examples of such Tipping Elements include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the polar ice sheets and sea ice, tropical and boreal forests, as well as the Asian monsoon systems. Interactions between the different Tipping Elements may either have stabilizing or destabilizing effects on the other subsystems, potentially leading to cascades of abrupt transitions. The critical forcing levels at which abrupt transitions occur have recently been associated with Tipping Points.

It is paramount to determine the critical forcing levels (and the associated uncertainties) beyond which the systems in question will abruptly change their state, with potentially devastating climatic, ecological, and societal impacts. For this purpose, we need to substantially enhance our understanding of the dynamics of the Tipping Elements and their interactions, on the basis of paleoclimatic evidence, present-day observations, and models spanning the entire hierarchy of complexity. Moreover, to be able to mitigate - or prepare for - potential future transitions, early warning signals have to be identified and monitored in both observations and models.

This multidisciplinary session invites contributions that address Tipping Points in the Earth system from the different perspectives of all relevant disciplines, including

- the mathematical theory of abrupt transitions in (random) dynamical systems,
- paleoclimatic studies of past abrupt transitions,
- data-driven and process-based modelling of past and future transitions,
- early-warning signals
- the implications of abrupt transitions for Climate sensitivity and response,
- ecological and societal impacts, as well as
- decision theory in the presence of uncertain Tipping Point estimates

Co-organized by CL4/CR7/OS1
Convener: Niklas Boers | Co-conveners: Hannah ChristensenECSECS, Peter Ditlevsen, Christian Franzke, Anna von der Heydt, Timothy Lenton , Marisa Montoya, Paul Williams, Naiming Yuan
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95, Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95

CL5.1 – Tools for Climate studies

Programme group scientific officer: Irka Hajdas

CL5.1.1 EDI

Climate services challenge the traditional interface between users and providers of climate information as it requires the establishment of a dialogue between subjects, who often have limited knowledge of each-other’s activities and practices. Increasing the understanding and usability of climate information for societal use has become a major challenge where economic growth, and social development crucially depends on adaptation to climate variability and change.

To this regard, climate services do not only create user-relevant climate information, but also stimulate the need to quantify vulnerabilities and come up with appropriate adaptation solutions that can be applied in practice.

The operational generation, management and delivery of climate services poses a number of new challenges to the traditional way of accessing and distributing climate data. With a growing private sector playing the role of service provider is important to understand what are the roles and the responsibilities of the publicly funded provision of climate data and information and services.

This session aims to gather best practices and lessons learnt, for how climate services can successfully facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change by providing climate information that is tailored to the real user need.
Contributions are strongly encouraged from international efforts (GFCS, CSP, ClimatEurope…); European Initiatives (H2020, ERA4CS, C3S, JPI-Climate…) as well as national, regional and local experiences.

Convener: Alessandro Dell'Aquila | Co-conveners: Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Christiana Photiadou, Andrej Ceglar
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 11:05–11:42 (CEST), 13:20–14:39 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
CL5.1.2 EDI

Modelling the Earth system with state-of-the-art Earth System models is computationally expensive. Therefore, emulators, also known as simple or reduced complexity climate models, are useful as they are able to produce individual climate projections with reduced computational resources. They play a key role in the climate assessments of the IPCC’s Working Group 1 and Working Group 3 reports. Emulators also play a role in coupling climate models to Integrated Assessment models and exploring potential effects of missing feedbacks in the development of socioeconomic and emissions scenarios.

The lower computational burden of emulators allows for a multitude of possibilities. Large probabilistic model ensembles can represent uncertainty in climate projections that is difficult to quantify in a full-complexity ESM, usually through the variation in a number of parameters that can be tuned to alter the emulator behaviour. Emulators may have physical, statistical, or machine learning elements, and can range in complexity from spreadsheet-based projections of global-mean temperature from prescribed radiative forcing through to simplified variants of operational ESMs.

We invite presentations on all aspects of the development and application of simple climate and geophysical models, including but not limited to:
1. the development of emulators, results, and case studies
2. the role of emulators in integrated assessment and scenario generation
3. best practices in tuning and calibration of emulators to observations and full-complexity Earth System models
4. Use of emulators to better understand complex model differences and behaviours
5. Strategies for emulating internal variability, teleconnections, regional climate, climate extremes, tipping points and missing processes in Earth System models (e.g. permafrost)
6. models that focus on one particular complex aspect of the Earth system (for example land and ocean carbon cycles, aerosol-climate interactions or the cryosphere)
7. uses of emulators in outreach, education and policymaking

Public information:

This session explores the utility of simple climate and geophysical models for process-based and global-level understanding. Simplified models use physical or statistical methods to emulate processes in the Earth system at higher computational efficiency, allowing for uncertainty analysis with large ensembles. In many cases, emulators have lower code overheads and a tractable number of equations, lowering the barrier to entry for Earth System modelling.

Convener: Christopher Smith | Co-conveners: Zebedee R. NichollsECSECS, Kalyn DorheimECSECS, Ben Sanderson, Bjorn H. Samset
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL5.1.3 EDI

Over recent decades we have gained a robust understanding of climate change fundamentals, but its specific and localized impacts are anything but certain. The need to provide boundary conditions for forecasting and computational modelling has increased the importance of quantitative methods in the field of palaeoenvironmental, palaeoclimatic, palaeohydrological and palaeofire reconstruction.

Continental environmental archives (e.g. speleothems, lake and river sediments, peatlands, and vertebrate and invertebrate remains) are often highly temporally resolved (subdecadal to seasonal) and provide more direct information about atmospheric and hydrological processes than marine archives. The wide variety of continental archives allows for intercomparison and ground-truthing of results from different environments, while multi-proxy reconstructions from the same archive can disentangle local and supra-regional environmental conditions. This approach is particularly useful when dealing with high spatial variability, signal buffering, nonlinearities, and uncertainties in the proxy sensitivity.

This session aims to highlight recent advances in the use of innovative and quantitative proxies to reconstruct past environmental change on land. We welcome studies of all continental archives, including but not limited to carbonates (caves, palaeosols, snails), sediments (lakes, peatlands, rivers, alluvial fans), and biological materials (tree rings, fossil assemblages, bones, biomarkers). We particularly encourage studies involving the calibration of physical and chemical proxies that incorporate modern transfer functions, forward modeling and/or geochemical modeling to predict proxy signals, and quantitative estimates of past temperature and palaeohydrological dynamics. We also invite reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic variability over large spatial scales and palaeoclimate data assimilation. This session provides a forum for discussing recent innovations and future directions in the development of continental palaeoenvironmental proxies on seasonal to multi-millennial timescales.

Convener: Ola Kwiecien | Co-conveners: Elisabeth Dietze, Benjamin KeenanECSECS, Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach, Cindy De JongeECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL5.1.4 EDI

The Quaternary Period (last 2.6 million years) is characterized by frequent and abrupt climate swings that were accompanied by rapid environmental change. Studying these changes requires accurate and precise dating methods that can be effectively applied to environmental archives. A range of different methods or a combination of various dating techniques can be used, depending on the archive, time range, and research question. Varve counting and dendrochronology allow for the construction of high-resolution chronologies, whereas radiometric methods (radiocarbon, cosmogenic in-situ, U-Th) and luminescence dating provide independent anchors for chronologies that span over longer timescales. We particularly welcome contributions that aim to (1) reduce, quantify and express dating uncertainties in any dating method, including high-resolution radiocarbon approaches; (2) use established geochronological methods to answer new questions; (3) use new methods to address longstanding issues, or; (4) combine different chronometric techniques for improved results, including the analysis of chronological datasets with novel methods, e.g. Bayesian age-depth modeling. Applications may aim to understand long-term landscape evolution, quantify rates of geomorphological processes, or provide chronologies for records of climate change.

Co-organized by GM2/SSP1, co-sponsored by PAGES
Convener: Kathleen WendtECSECS | Co-conveners: Arne RamischECSECS, Irka Hajdas, Andreas Lang
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
CL5.1.5 EDI

Downscaling aims to process and refine global climate model output to provide information at spatial and temporal scales suitable for impact studies. In response to the current challenges posed by climate change and variability, downscaling techniques continue to play an important role in the development of user-driven climate information and new climate services and products. In fact, the "user's dilemma" is no longer that there is a lack of downscaled data, but rather how to select amongst the available datasets and to assess their credibility. In this context, model evaluation and verification is growing in relevance and advances in the field will likely require close collaboration between various disciplines.

Furthermore, epistemologists have started to revisit current practices of climate model validation. This new thread of discussion encourages to clarify the issue of added value of downscaling, i.e. the value gained through adding another level of complexity to the uncertainty cascade. For example, the ‘adequacy-for-purpose view’ may offer a more holistic approach to the evaluation of downscaling models (and atmospheric models, in general) as it considers, for example, user perspectives next to a model’s representational accuracy.

In our session, we aim to bring together scientists from the various geoscientific disciplines interrelated through downscaling: atmospheric modeling, climate change impact modeling, machine learning and verification research. We also invite philosophers of climate science to enrich our discussion about novel challenges faced by the evaluation of increasingly complex simulation models.

Contributions to this session may address, but are not limited to:

- newly available downscaling products,
- applications relying on downscaled data,
- downscaling method development, including the potential for machine learning,
- bias correction and statistical postprocessing,
- challenges in the data management of kilometer-scale simulations,
- verification, uncertainty quantification and the added value of downscaling,
- downscaling approaches in light of computational epistemology.

Co-organized by NP3
Convener: Marlis Hofer | Co-conveners: Jonathan Eden, Tanja ZerennerECSECS
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 14:05–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
GM2.4 EDI

Numerical frameworks are essential for understanding and interpreting landscape evolution. Over recent decades, geochronological techniques such as cosmogenic nuclides, thermochronology, radiocarbon and luminescence dating have improved in accuracy, precision, and temporal range. Developments in geochronological methods, data treatment and landscape evolution models have provided new insights into the timing, duration and intensity of landscape evolution processes. The combination of temporal constraints with numerical modelling has enormous potential for improving our understanding of landscape evolution. The focus of this session is to bring together geochronology, data science and models of Quaternary landscape change.

This session includes studies of erosional rates and processes, sediment provenance, burial and transport times, bedrock exposure or cooling histories, landscape dynamics, and the examination of potential biases and discordances in geochronological data and model-data comparisons. We welcome contributions that apply and combine novel geochronological methods and that intersect different geochronological techniques and numerical modelling with landscape evolution analysis. This includes the determination of rates and timing of landscape change as well as stochastic events, or that highlight the latest developments and open questions in the application of geochronometers to landscape evolution problems.

Co-organized by CL5.1
Convener: Christoph Schmidt | Co-conveners: Duna Roda-BoludaECSECS, Ann Rowan, Georgina King
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room -2.31
GI4.1 EDI

This session invites contributions on the latest developments and results in lidar remote sensing of the atmosphere, covering • new lidar techniques as well as applications of lidar data for model verification and assimilation, • ground-based, airborne, and space-borne lidar systems, • unique research systems as well as networks of instruments, • lidar observations of aerosols and clouds, thermodynamic parameters and wind, and trace-gases. Atmospheric lidar technologies have shown significant progress in recent years. While, some years ago, there were only a few research systems, mostly quite complex and difficult to operate on a longer-term basis because a team of experts was continuously required for their operation, advancements in laser transmitter and receiver technologies have resulted in much more rugged systems nowadays, many of which are already operated routinely in networks and some even being automated and commercially available. Consequently, also more and more data sets with very high resolution in range and time are becoming available for atmospheric science, which makes it attractive to consider lidar data not only for case studies but also for extended model comparison statistics and data assimilation. Here, ceilometers provide not only information on the cloud bottom height but also profiles of aerosol and cloud backscatter signals. Scanning Doppler lidars extend the data to horizontal and vertical wind profiles. Raman lidars and high-spectral resolution lidars provide more details than ceilometers and measure particle extinction and backscatter coefficients at multiple wavelengths. Other Raman lidars measure water vapor mixing ratio and temperature profiles. Differential absorption lidars give profiles of absolute humidity or other trace gases (like ozone, NOx, SO2, CO2, methane etc.). Depolarization lidars provide information on the shapes of aerosol and cloud particles. In addition to instruments on the ground, lidars are operated from airborne platforms in different altitudes. Even the first space-borne missions are now in orbit while more are currently in preparation. All these aspects of lidar remote sensing in the atmosphere will be part of this session.

Co-organized by AS3/CL5.1
Convener: Andreas Behrendt | Co-conveners: Diego Lange Vega, Joelle BuxmannECSECS, Paolo Di Girolamo, Silke GrossECSECS
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–09:54 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
GI5.5 EDI

Continues monitoring of infrastructure systems are essential to ensure a reliable movement of people and goods, which involves in the economy growth and human interaction. The wide variety of instruments available allows diverse applications to increase data availability for a better understanding of geotechnical surroundings which are directly linked to the safe operation of infrastructures to prevent catastrophise such as soil erosion, settlements, liquefaction, landslides, seismic activities, flooding and even wildfires close to the highways. Understanding mentioned events are vital to provide a safe infrastructure in extreme climate conditions. This session focus on the application of geosciences and geophysical instrumentation including sensors on the infrastructures monitoring and data analysis from critical infrastructures (e.g., roadways, railway system, bridges, tunnels, water supply, underground utilities, electrical grids, and other embedded facilities in cities). The session aims to increase knowledge on geo-infrastructure management to overcome future challenges associated with the societal and human interaction, present advance knowledge research and novel approaches from various disciplines with a vibrant interaction to economy and human-interaction studies to provide an efficient infrastructure management system. The session is considered inter-and transdisciplinary (ITS) session. The applications and topics include but are not limited to: (1) Advance knowledge of the destructive and non-destructive geoscience and geophysical techniques including contactless and non-contactless techniques such as sensors. (2) Intelligent data analysis approaches to analyse accurate and precise interpretation of big data sets driven from various technologies (e.g., computer vision and image, and signal processing). (3) Influence of the surrounding areas on infrastructure management systems linked to natural events such as soil erosion, settlements, liquefaction, landslides, seismic activities, flooding, wildfires and extreme weather condition. (4) Continuous real-time monitoring to provide smart tools such as an integration of geosciences data with BIM models, Internet of Things, digital twins, robotic monitoring, artificial intelligence, automation systems based on machine learning and computational modelling for better decision-making for infrastructure owner/operators. (5) Human-interaction computer-based aided to generate reliable infrastructures.

Co-organized by CL5.1/ESSI4/NH6/SM2
Convener: Mezgeen RasolECSECS | Co-conveners: Veronica Escobar-Ruiz, Franziska Schmidt, David Ayala-Cabrera, Silvia IentileECSECS
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 13:20–14:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
CR2.8 EDI

Machine learning, artificial intelligence and big data approaches have recently emerged as key tools in understanding the cryosphere. These approaches are being increasingly applied to answer long standing questions in cryospheric science, including those relating to remote sensing, forecasting, and improving process understanding across Antarctic, Arctic and Alpine regions. In doing so, data science and AI techniques are being used to gain insight into system complexity, analyse data on unprecedented temporal and spatial scales, and explore much wider parameter spaces than were previously possible.
In this session we invite submissions that utilise data science and/or AI techniques that address research questions relating to glaciology, sea ice, permafrost and/or polar climate science. Approaches used may include (but are not limited to) machine learning, artificial intelligence, big data processing/automation techniques, advanced statistics, and innovative software/computing solutions. These could be applied to any (or combinations) of data sources including remote sensing, numerical model output and field/lab observations. We particularly invite contributions that apply techniques and approaches that reveal new insights into cryospheric research problems that would not otherwise be achievable using traditional methods, and those that discuss how or if approaches can be applied or adapted to other areas of cryospheric science. Given the rapid development of this field by a diverse group of international researchers, we convene this session to help foster future collaboration amongst session contributors, attendees, and international stakeholders and help address the most challenging questions in cryospheric science.

Co-organized by CL5.1/ESSI1/GI2/OS1
Convener: James Lea | Co-conveners: Amber Leeson, Celia A. BaumhoerECSECS, Michel Tsamados
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 14:05–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room N2

CL5.2 – Archives and observations

Programme group scientific officers: Elisabeth Dietze, Eduardo Queiroz Alves

SSP1.2 EDI

Scientific drilling through the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) continues to provide unique opportunities to investigate the workings of the interior of our planet, Earth’s cycles, natural hazards and the distribution of subsurface microbial life. The past and current scientific drilling programs have brought major advances in many multidisciplinary fields of socio-economic relevance, such as climate and ecosystem evolution, palaeoceanography, the deep biosphere, deep crustal and tectonic processes, geodynamics and geohazards. This session invites contributions that present and/or review recent scientific results from deep Earth sampling and monitoring through ocean and continental drilling projects. Furthermore, we encourage contributions that outline perspectives and visions for future drilling projects, in particular projects using a multi-platform approach.

Co-organized by BG5/CL5.2/EMRP3/GMPV11/NH5/TS1, co-sponsored by JpGU
Convener: Angelo Camerlenghi | Co-conveners: Jorijntje Henderiks, Cindy Kunkel, Thomas Wiersberg
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:44 (CEST)
 
Room -2.32/33
G3.1 EDI

This session invites innovative Earth system and climate studies based on geodetic measuring techniques. Modern geodetic observing systems document a wide range of changes in the Earth’s solid and fluid layers at very diverging spatial and temporal scales related to processes as, e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment, the terrestrial water cycle, ocean dynamics and ice-mass balance. Different time spans of observations need to be cross-compared and combined to resolve a wide spectrum of climate-related signals. Geodetic observables are also often compared with geophysical models, which helps to explain observations, evaluate simulations, and finally merge measurements and numerical models via data assimilation.
We appreciate contributions utilizing geodetic data from diverse geodetic satellites including altimetry, gravimetry (CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and GRACE-FO), navigation satellite systems (GNSS and DORIS) or remote sensing techniques that are based on both passive (i.e., optical and hyperspectral) and active (i.e., SAR) instruments. We welcome studies that cover a wide variety of applications of geodetic measurements and their combination to observe and model Earth system signals in hydrological, ocean, atmospheric, climate and cryospheric sciences. Any new approaches helping to separate and interpret the variety of geophysical signals are equally appreciated. Contributions working towards any of the goals of the Inter-Commission Committee on "Geodesy for Climate Research" (ICCC) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) are also welcomed in this session.
With author consent, highlights from this session will be tweeted with a dedicated hashtag during the conference in order to increase the impact of the session.

Including G Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
Co-organized by CL5.2/CR2/OS4
Convener: Anna KlosECSECS | Co-conveners: Roelof Rietbroek, Carmen Boening, Henryk Dobslaw, Vincent Humphrey
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 10:20–11:47 (CEST), 13:20–14:37 (CEST)
 
Room -2.16
CR2.9 EDI

This interdisciplinary session brings together modellers and observationalists to present results and exchange knowledge and experience in the use of inverse methods, geostatistics and data assimilation - including machine learning - in cryospheric science.
In numerous research fields it is now possible not only to deduce static features of a physical system but also to retrieve information on transient processes between different states or even regime shifts. In the cryospheric sciences a large potential for future developments lies at the intersection of observations and models with the aim to yield prognostic capabilities in space and time. Compared to other geoscientific disciplines like meteorology or oceanography, where techniques such as data assimilation have been well established for decades, in cryospheric sciences only the foundation has been laid for the use of these techniques, one reason often being the sparsity of observations.
We invite contributions from a wide range of methodologies - from satellite observations to deep-looking geophysical methods and advancements in numerical techniques, and from topics including permafrost, sea ice and snow to glaciers and ice sheets, covering static system characterisations as well as transient processes.

Co-organized by CL5.2/GI1/HS13
Convener: Olaf Eisen | Co-conveners: Nanna Bjørnholt Karlsson, Johannes SutterECSECS, Elisa MantelliECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–15:52 (CEST)
 
Room N2
CR1.4 EDI

The largest single source of uncertainty in projections of future global sea level is associated with the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). In the short-term, it cannot be stated with certainty whether the mass balance of the AIS is positive or negative; in the long-term, the possibility exists that melting of the coastal shelves around Antarctica will lead to an irreversible commitment to ongoing sea level rise. Observational and paleoclimate studies can help to reduce this uncertainty, constraining the parameterizations of physical processes within ice sheet models and allowing for improved projections of future global sea level rise. This session welcomes presentations covering all aspects of observation, paleoclimate reconstruction and modeling of the AIS. Presentations that focus on the mass balance of the AIS and its contribution towards changes in global sea level are particularly encouraged.

Co-organized by CL5.2/OS1
Convener: Taryn NobleECSECS | Co-conveners: Florence Colleoni, Chris Fogwill, Natalya Gomez, Steven Phipps
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:55–18:10 (CEST)
 
Room N2
GD9.2 EDI

Long term observations are of vital importance in the Earth Sciences, yet often difficult to pursue and fund. The distinction of a fluctuation from a long-term change in Earth processes is a key question to better understand processes within the Earth and in the Earth system. Likewise, it is a prerequisite for the assessment of the Earth's climate change as well as risk assessment. In order to distinguish fluctuations from a steady change, knowledge on the time variability of the signal itself and long term observations are required. Exemplarily, due to the decadal variability of sea level, reliable sea level trends can only be obtained after about sixty years of continuous observations. Reliable strain rates of deformation require a minimum of a decade of continuous data, due to ambient and anthropogenic factors leading to fluctuations. This session invites contributions demonstrating the importance of long term geophysical, geodynamic, oceanographic, geodetic, and climate observatories. Advances in sensors, instrumentation, monitoring techniques, analyses, and interpretations of data, or the comparison of approaches are welcome, with the aim to stimulate a multidisciplinary discussion among those dedicated to the accumulation, preservation and dissemination of data over decadal time scales or beyond. Studies utilizing novel approaches such as AI for analysis of long time series are very welcome. Likewise, studies that show the mutual transfer of knowledge of terrestrial and satellite observations are a topic of interest. With this session, we also would like to provide an opportunity to gather and exchange experiences for representatives from observatories both in Europe and worldwide.

Co-organized by CL5.2/EMRP2/G3/GI2
Convener: Nina Kukowski | Co-conveners: Dorothee Rebscher, Valentin KasburgECSECS, Carla Braitenberg, Hans-Peter Bunge
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room -2.91
HS1.2.1 EDI

The MacGyver session focuses on novel sensors made, or data sources unlocked, by scientists. All geoscientists are invited to present:
- new sensor systems, using technologies in novel or unintended ways,
- new data storage or transmission solutions sending data from the field with LoRa, WIFI, GSM, or any other nifty approach,
- started initiatives (e.g., Open-Sensing.org) that facilitate the creation and sharing of novel sensors, data acquisition and transmission systems.

Connected a sensor to an Arduino or Raspberri Pi? Used the new Lidar in the new iPhone to measure something relevant for hydrology? 3D printed an automated water quality sampler? Or build a Cloud Storage system from Open Source Components? Show it!

New methods in hydrology, plant physiology, seismology, remote sensing, ecology, etc. are all welcome. Bring prototypes and demonstrations to make this the most exciting Poster Only (!) session of the General Assembly.

This session is co-sponsered by MOXXI, the working group on novel observational methods of the IAHS.

Co-organized by BG2/CL5.2
Convener: Rolf Hut | Co-conveners: Theresa Blume, Andrew Wickert, Marvin ReichECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 3.29/30
G3.3 EDI

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) describes the dynamic response of the solid Earth to ice sheet glaciation/deglaciation, which affects the spatial and temporal sea level changes, and induces surface deformation, gravitational field variation and stress changes in the subsurface. The process is influenced by the ice sheet characteristics (e.g., extent, volume, grounding line) and solid Earth structure. With more observational data (e.g., relative sea-level data, GPS data, tide gauges, terrestrial and satellite gravimetry, glacially induced faults) are available/standardized, we can better investigate the interactions between the ice sheets, solid Earth and sea levels, and reveal the ice sheet and sea-level evolution histories and rheological properties of the Earth.

This session invites contributions discussing observations, analysis, and modelling of ice sheet dynamics, solid Earth response, and the resulting global, regional and local sea-level changes and land deformation, including paleo ice sheet and paleo sea-level investigations, geodetic measurements of crustal motion and gravitational change, GIA modelling with complex Earth models (e.g., 3D viscosity, non-linear rheologies) and coupled ice-sheet/Earth modelling, investigations on glacially triggered faulting as well as the Earth’s elastic response to present-day ice mass changes. We also welcome abstracts that address the future ice sheets/shelves evolution and sea-level projection as well as GIA effects on oil migration and nuclear waste repositories. Contributions related to both polar regions and previously glaciated regions are welcomed. This session is co-sponsored by the SCAR sub-committee INSTANT-EIS, Earth - Ice - Sea level, in view of instabilities and thresholds in Antarctica https://www.scar.org/science/instant/home/.

Co-organized by CL5.2/CR4/GD2/GM10/NP8
Convener: Tanghua LiECSECS | Co-conveners: Holger Steffen, Meike Bagge, Jun'ichi Okuno, Maryam YousefiECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–18:28 (CEST)
 
Room -2.16
SSS3.2 EDI

Soils and palaeosols develop under the influence of various environmental factors that produce specific soil features, thus keeping a memory of both current and past environments. They are valuable archives of human activities that shaped environments and affected soil formation over the Holocene period. They can be studied to reconstruct environmental factors that were present during the time of their formation, and to disentangle the relative influences of different environmental conditions, both local and regional, on soil formation. Despite the increasing consideration of palaeosols in sedimentary successions, studies linking pedogenesis and sedimentary processes are still underrepresented. Anthropogenic soils in archaeological settings provide valuable archives for geoarchaeological studies, with their stratigraphy and properties reflecting settlement life cycles (occupation, abandonment, and reoccupation) and land-use history. Land-use legacy soils also have enormous potential for process-related research such as studying the long-term effects on the organic and inorganic carbon budget, physical compaction, aggregation, formation of anthropogenic pedofeatures and more.
This session is open for all contributions focused on the study of palaeosols, anthropogenic soils, and anthropogenically-affected soils, in particular on:
- The use of palaeosols and land-use legacy soils as records of present and former environments, both local and regional;
- Palaeosols and anthropogenically-affected soils and their relationships with sedimentary processes;
- Anthropogenic soils and palaeosols in archaeological contexts;
- The methodological progress in the study of soil records (for example, advances in biochemical, geochemical, and micromorphological (sub-)microscopic techniques in palaeopedology, in the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data such as biomarker and isotope data, in remote sensing or modelling methods used to map and analyze spatial patterns of palaeosol and land use legacy soil distribution);
- Predictions of future soil changes as a result of changes in environmental conditions and/or land-use, based on observed past soil responses to environmental changes.

Co-organized by CL5.2/GM3
Convener: Anna SchneiderECSECS | Co-conveners: Maria Bronnikova, Anna Andreetta, Oren Ackermann
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–18:27 (CEST)
 
Room G1
NH5.3

Tsunamis and storm surges pose significant hazards to coastal communities around the world. Geological investigations, including both field studies and modelling approaches, significantly enhance our understanding of these events. Past extreme wave events may be reconstructed based on sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from low and high energy environments, from low and high latitude regions and from coastal and offshore areas. The development of novel approaches to identifying, characterising and dating evidence for these events supplements a range of established methods. Nevertheless, the differentiation between evidence for tsunamis and storms still remains a significant question for the community. Numerical and experimental modelling studies complement and enhance field observations and are crucial to improving deterministic and probabilistic approaches to hazard assessment. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of paleo-tsunami and paleo-storm surge research, including studies that use established methods or recent interdisciplinary advances to reconstruct records of past events, or forecast the probability of future events.

Co-organized by CL5.2/GM6/SSP3
Convener: Ed Garrett | Co-conveners: Jessica Pilarczyk, Max Engel, Simon Matthias May, Dominik Brill
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 17:00–18:24 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62

CL5.3 – Theory and modelling

Programme group scientific officers: Irka Hajdas, Julia Hargreaves

CL5.3.1 EDI

Modelling past climate states, and the transient evolution of Earth’s climate remains challenging. Time periods such as the Paleocene, Eocene, Pliocene, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum or the mid-Holocene span across a vast range of climate conditions. At times, these lie far outside the bounds of the historical period that most models are designed and tuned to reproduce. However, our ability to predict future climate conditions and potential pathways to them is dependent on our models' abilities to reproduce just such phenomena. Thus, our climatic and environmental history is ideally suited to thoroughly test and evaluate models against data, so they may be better able to simulate the present and make future climate projections.

We invite papers on palaeoclimate-specific model development, model simulations and model-data comparison studies. Simulations may be targeted to address specific questions or follow specified protocols (as in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – PMIP or the Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project – DeepMIP). They may include anything between time-slice equilibrium experiments to long transient climate simulations (e.g. transient simulations covering the entire glacial cycle as per the goal of the PalMod project) with timescales of processes ranging from synoptic scales to glacial cycles and beyond. Comparisons may include past, historical as well as future simulations and focus on comparisons of mean states, gradients, circulation or modes of variability using reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, vegetation or tracer species (e.g. δ18O, δD or Pa/Th).

Evaluations of results from the latest phase of PMIP4-CMIP6 are particularly encouraged. However, we also solicit comparisons of different models (comprehensive GCMs, isotope-enabled models, EMICs and/or conceptual models) between different periods, or between models and data, including an analysis of the underlying mechanisms as well as contributions introducing novel model or experimental setups.

Co-organized by BG5/NP4/OS1
Convener: Kira Rehfeld | Co-conveners: Heather AndresECSECS, Julia Hargreaves, Nils WeitzelECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST), 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room F2
CL5.3.2

One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal and longer timescales will be discussed and evaluated. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for the different time horizons from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, exploration of artificial-intelligence methods, etc.
Following the new WCRP strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes between atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice components, as well as the impacts of coupling and feedbacks in physical, chemical, biological, and human dimensions. Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects.
An increasingly important aspect for climate forecast's applications is the use of most appropriate downscaling methods, based on dynamical or statistical approaches or their combination, that are needed to generate time series and fields with an appropriate spatial or temporal resolution. This is extensively considered in the session, which therefore brings together scientists from all geoscientific disciplines working on the prediction and application problems.

Co-organized by BG9/CR7/NH10/NP5/OS1
Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-conveners: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Tatiana Ilyina, June-Yi Lee, Xiaosong Yang
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL5.3.3 EDI

Regional climate modeling has become a fundamental tool to study regional climate change processes and produce regional climate projections. This research area has expanded strongly in the last decades, in particular, with the inception of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the main reference international program within the regional modeling community. Within CORDEX, two new initiatives have been launched, the CORDEX-CORE program and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS). This session accepts papers on recent developments and application of regional climate models (RCMs), from hydrostatic to convection permitting resolutions; use of RCMs for climate change projection, impact assessment and climate service activities; studies pertaining to the CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE and CORDEX-FPS programs; development and application of fully coupled regional earth system models.

Convener: Filippo Giorgi | Co-conveners: Ivan Guettler, Melissa Bukovsky
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–14:42 (CEST)
 
Room E2
CL5.3.4 EDI

Predictions of climate from seasonal to decadal timescales and their applications are discussed in this session. With a time horizon from a few months up to thirty years, such predictions are of major importance to society, and improving them presents an interesting scientific challenge. This session aims to embrace advances in our understanding of the origins of seasonal to decadal predictability, as well as in improving the respective forecast skill and making the most of this information by developing and evaluating new applications and climate services.

The session covers dynamical as well as statistical predictions (including machine learning methods) and their combination. It investigates predictions of various climate phenomena, including extremes, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales ("seamless predictions"). Physical processes relevant to long-term predictability sources (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) as well as predicting large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to teleconnections are discussed, as are observational and emergent constraints on climate variability and predictability. Also, the time-dependence of the predictive skill, or windows of opportunity (hindcast period), are investigated. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework, and ensemble forecast initialization and generation, including innovative ensemble approaches to minimize initialization shocks, are another focus of the session. The session pays particular attention to innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions, including extreme-weather frequencies, post-processing of climate hindcasts and forecasts, and quantification and interpretation of model uncertainty. We particularly invite contributions presenting the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for risk assessment, adaptation and further applications.

Including Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture
Co-organized by OS1
Convener: Leonard BorchertECSECS | Co-conveners: André Düsterhus, Deborah Verfaillie, Leon Hermanson, Panos J. Athanasiadis
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–18:18 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
CL5.3.5 EDI

Homogeneous long-term data records (i.e., well calibrated quality-controlled data that are forced to look like a common reference) are essential for researching, monitoring, or attenuating changes in climate, for example to describe the state of climate or to detect climate extremes. Likewise, reanalysis requires harmonized data records (i.e., well calibrated quality-controlled data that maintained the unique nature of each sensor). Climate data records need to be screened and cleared from artificial non-climatic temporal and/or spatial effects, such as gradual degradation of instruments, jumps due to instruments changes, jumps due to observation practices changes, or jumps due to changes of station location and exposure. The magnitude and uncertainty of these gradual and/or abrupt changes determines their suitability for climate trend analyses. Therefore, data intended for applications, such as making a realistic and reliable assessment of historical climate trends and variability, require consistently homogenized and/or harmonized data records including measurement uncertainties.

The above described artificial non-climatic effects influence the quality of different Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), including atmospheric (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed), oceanic (e.g., sea surface temperature), and terrestrial (e.g., albedo, snow cover) variables. Our session calls for contributions, using data records from i) in-situ observing networks, ii) satellite observing systems, and or iii) climate/earth-system model simulations based data records, on the:

• Calibration, quality control, homogenization/harmonization and validation of either Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) and/or Essential Climate Variables data records (CDRs).

• Development of new data records and their analysis (spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly of extremes).

• Examination of observed trends and variability, as well as studies that explore the applicability of techniques/algorithms to data of different temporal resolutions (annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and sub-daily).

• Rescue and analysis of centennial meteorological observations, with focus on data prior to the 1960s, as a unique source to fill in the gap of knowledge of climate variability over century time-scales. In particular, we encourage wind studies dealing with the observed slowdown (termed “stilling”; last 30-50 years) and recent recovery (since ~2013) of near-surface winds.

Convener: Lorenzo MinolaECSECS | Co-conveners: Cesar Azorin-Molina, Xiaolan Wang, Rob Roebeling
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 13:20–16:20 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
BG3.8 EDI

Eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) theory invokes the power of natural selection to eliminate uncompetitive trait combinations, and thereby shape predictable, general patterns in vegetation structure and composition. Although the implementation of process-based representations derived from EEO principles in vegetation and land-surface models is a relatively recent phenomenon, it is already yielding considerable improvements to our ability to simulate vegetation responses to changing climate and environmental conditions. For example, hypotheses derived from EEO principles are proving helpful in developing parsimonious representations of leaf-level processes such as photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration, and stomatal behaviour. EEO approaches can also be applied to at whole plant and community levels, providing simple ways of representing plant interactions and ecosystem dynamics. Comparisons of EEO-based predictions against experimental data and field and remote-sensing observations provide a way of evaluating the robustness of the hypotheses, as well as discriminating between alternative EEO hypotheses.
This session is designed to bring together scientists applying EEO approaches to modelling plant behaviour from cellular to community scales, experimentalists and observationalists developing data sets that can be used to evaluate EEO hypotheses, and vegetation and land-surface modellers implementing EEO approaches in existing model frameworks. The session will explore the current state-of-the-art, as well as ways to move EEO-based approaches forward. The key objective is to bring together researchers from different communities working on EEO principles, promoting scientific exchanges that are much needed to develop robust, reliable and realistic next-generation Earth System Models.

Co-organized by CL5.3
Convener: Sandy Harrison | Co-conveners: Han WangECSECS, Hugo de Boer, Anna Agusti-Panareda
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–15:34 (CEST)
 
Room 2.95
NH10.2 EDI

High-impact climate and weather events typically result from the interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales. These events, also known as Compound Events, often cause more severe socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events, rendering traditional univariate extreme event analyses and risk assessment techniques insufficient. It is therefore crucial to develop new methodologies that account for the possible interaction of multiple physical drivers when analysing high-impact events. Such an endeavour requires (i) a deeper understanding of the interplay of mechanisms causing Compound Events and (ii) an evaluation of the performance of climate/weather, statistical and impact models in representing Compound Events.

The European COST Action DAMOCLES coordinates these efforts by building a research network consisting of climate scientists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders. This session creates a platform for this network and acts as an introduction of the work related to DAMOCLES to the research community.

We invite papers studying all aspects of Compound Events, which might relate to (but are not limited to) the following topics:

Synthesis and Analysis: What are common features for different classes of Compound Events? Which climate variables need to be assessed jointly in order to address related impacts? How much is currently known about the dependence between these variables?
Stakeholders and science-user interface: Which events are most relevant for stakeholders? What are novel approaches to ensure continuous stakeholder engagement?
Impacts: What are the currently available sources of impact data? How can they be used to link observed impacts to climate and weather events?
Statistical approaches, model development and evaluation: What are possible novel statistical models that could be applied in the assessment of Compound Events?
Realistic model simulations of events: What are the physical mechanisms behind different types of Compound Events? What type of interactions result in the joint impact of the hazards that are involved in the event? How do these interactions influence risk assessment analyses?

Public information:

Duration of the talks: 5 minutes + 2 minutes for questions and transition to the next speaker.

Including Arne Richter Award for Outstanding ECS Lecture
Co-organized by AS4/CL5.3/HS13
Convener: Emanuele BevacquaECSECS | Co-conveners: Freya GarryECSECS, Aglaé Jézéquel, Nina Nadine RidderECSECS, Seth Westra, Philip Ward
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 13:20–18:27 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
AS1.18 EDI

The regional monsoons and the global monsoon circulation to which they belong have profound impacts on water, energy, and food security. Monsoons cause severe floods and droughts as well as undergoing variability on subseasonal, interannual and decadal-to-multi-decadal time scales. In addition to profound local effects, monsoon variability is also associated with global-scale impacts via teleconnections.

Monsoons are among the most complex phenomena involving coupled atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and remain notoriously difficult to forecast at leads times ranging from numerical weather prediction (NWP) to long-term climate projections. A better understanding of monsoon physics and dynamics, with more accurate simulation, prediction and projection of monsoon systems is therefore of great importance.

This session invites presentations on all aspects of monsoon research in present-day, future and palaeoclimate periods, involving observations, modelling, attribution, prediction and climate projection. Topics ranging from theoretical works based on idealized planets and ITCZ frameworks to the latest field campaign results are also invited, as is work on impacts, extremes, NWP modelling, S2S and decadal forecasting, and the latest CMIP6 findings.

Co-organized by CL5.3
Convener: Andrew Turner | Co-conveners: Jianping Li, Roberta D'AgostinoECSECS, Kyung-Ja Ha
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:44 (CEST), 13:20–14:37 (CEST)
 
Room M2
ITS2.7/AS5.2 EDI

Recent developments in machine learning (ML) are transforming Earth observation data analysis and modelling of the Earth system and its constituent processes. While statistical models have been used for a long time, state-of-the-art machine and deep learning algorithms allow encoding non-linear, spatio-temporal relationships robustly without sacrificing interpretability. These advances have the potential to accelerate climate science by improving our understanding of the underlying processes, reducing and better quantifying uncertainty, and even making predictions directly from observations across different spatio-temporal scales.

This session aims to provide a venue to present the latest progress in the use of ML applied to all aspects of climate science including, but not limited to:
- Causal discovery and inference
- Learning (causal) process and feature representations in observations
- Hybrid models (physically informed ML)
- Novel detection and attribution approaches
- Probabilistic modelling and uncertainty quantification
- Explainable AI applications to climate science

Please consider submitting abstracts focussed on ML for model improvement, particularly for near-term (including seasonal) forecasting to the companion “ML for Earth System modelling” session.

Co-organized by CL5.3/ESSI1/NP4
Convener: Duncan Watson-ParrisECSECS | Co-conveners: Katarzyna (Kasia) TokarskaECSECS, Gustau Camps-Valls, Marlene KretschmerECSECS, Rochelle Schneider
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST), 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room N1
ITS2.6/AS5.1 EDI

Unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised as well as reinforcement learning are now increasingly used to address Earth system related challenges.
Machine learning could help extract information from numerous Earth System data, such as in-situ and satellite observations, as well as improve model fidelity through novel parameterisations or speed-ups. This session invites submissions spanning modelling and observational approaches towards providing an overview of the state-of-the-art of application of these novel methods for predicting and monitoring our earth system. This includes (but it is not restricted to):
- the use of machine learning to improve forecast skill
- generate significant speedups
- design new parameterization schemes
- emulate numerical models.

Please consider submitting abstracts focussed on ML applied to observations and modelling of climate processes to the companion "ML for Climate Science" session.

Co-organized by CL5.3/ESSI1/NP4/OS4
Convener: Julien Brajard | Co-conveners: Alejandro Coca-Castro, Peter Düben, Redouane Lguensat, Emily Lines, Francine Schevenhoven, Maike SonnewaldECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room N1, Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room N1
NP4.1 EDI

This interdisciplinary session welcomes contributions on novel conceptual and/or methodological approaches and methods for the analysis and statistical-dynamical modeling of observational as well as model time series from all geoscientific disciplines.
Methods to be discussed include, but are not limited to linear and nonlinear methods of time series analysis. time-frequency methods, statistical inference for nonlinear time series, including empirical inference of causal linkages from multivariate data, nonlinear statistical decomposition and related techniques for multivariate and spatio-temporal data, nonlinear correlation analysis and synchronisation, surrogate data techniques, filtering approaches and nonlinear methods of noise reduction, artificial intelligence and machine learning based analysis and prediction for univariate and multivariate time series.
Contributions on methodological developments and applications to problems across all geoscientific disciplines are equally encouraged. We particularly aim at fostering a transfer of new methodological data analysis and modeling concepts among different fields of the geosciences.

Co-organized by BG2/CL5.3/EMRP2/ESSI1/HS13/SM3/ST2
Convener: Reik Donner | Co-conveners: Tommaso Alberti, Giorgia Di Capua
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
NP5.1

Statistical post-processing techniques for weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts are powerful approaches to compensate for effects of errors in model structure or initial conditions, and to calibrate inaccurately dispersed ensembles. These techniques are now an integral part of many forecasting suites and are used in many end-user applications such as wind energy production or flood warning systems. Many of these techniques are flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias correction up to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that take into account correlations among the prognostic variables.

At the same time, a lot of efforts are put in combining multiple forecasting sources in order to get reliable and seamless forecasts on time ranges from minutes to weeks. Such blending techniques are currently developed in many meteorological centers.

In this session, we invite presentations dealing with both theoretical developments in statistical post-processing and evaluation of their performances in different practical applications oriented toward environmental predictions, and new developments dealing with the problem of combining or blending different types of forecasts in order to improve reliability from very short to long time scales.

Co-organized by CL5.3/HS13
Convener: Stéphane Vannitsem | Co-conveners: Stephan HemriECSECS, Sebastian LerchECSECS, Maxime TaillardatECSECS, Daniel S. Wilks
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 14:05–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
NP2.2 EDI

Abstracts are solicited related to the understanding and prediction of weather, climate and geophysical extremes, from both an applied sciences and theoretical viewpoint.

In this session we propose to group together the traditional geophysical sciences and more mathematical/statistical approaches to the study of extremes. We aim to highlight the complementary nature of these two viewpoints, with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of extreme events.

Potential topics of interest include but are not limited to the following:

· How extremes have varied or are likely to vary under climate change;
· How well climate models capture extreme events;
· Attribution of extreme events;
· Emergent constraints on extremes;
· Linking dynamical systems extremes to geophysical extremes;
· Extremes in dynamical systems;
· Downscaling of weather and climate extremes.
· Linking the dynamics of climate extremes to their impacts

Co-organized by CL5.3/NH10
Convener: Davide Faranda | Co-conveners: Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Meriem KroumaECSECS, Gabriele Messori
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
GI6.3 EDI

Environmental systems often span spatial and temporal scales covering different orders of magnitude. The session is oriented toward collecting studies relevant to understand multiscale aspects of these systems and in proposing adequate multi-platform and inter-disciplinary surveillance networks monitoring tools systems. It is especially aimed to emphasize the interaction between environmental processes occurring at different scales. In particular, special attention is devoted to the studies focused on the development of new techniques and integrated instrumentation for multiscale monitoring of high natural risk areas, such as volcanic, seismic, energy exploitation, slope instability, floods, coastal instability, climate changes, and another environmental context.
We expect contributions derived from several disciplines, such as applied geophysics, geology, seismology, geodesy, geochemistry, remote and proximal sensing, volcanology, geotechnical, soil science, marine geology, oceanography, climatology, and meteorology. In this context, the contributions in analytical and numerical modeling of geological and environmental processes are also expected.
Finally, we stress that the inter-disciplinary studies that highlight the multiscale properties of natural processes analyzed and monitored by using several methodologies are welcome.

Co-organized by AS5/CL5.3/ERE1/ESSI4/GD9/NH6/NP3
Convener: Pietro Tizzani | Co-conveners: Antonello Bonfante, Francesca Bianco, Raffaele Castaldo, Nemesio M. Pérez
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:55–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
HS7.1

The assessment of precipitation variability and uncertainty is crucial in a variety of applications, such as flood risk forecasting, water resource assessments, evaluation of the hydrological impacts of climate change, determination of design floods, and hydrological modelling in general. This session aims to gather contributions on research, advanced applications, and future needs in the understanding and modelling of precipitation variability, and its sources of uncertainty.
Contributions focusing on one or more of the following issues are particularly welcome:
- Novel studies aimed at the assessment and representation of different sources of uncertainty versus natural variability of precipitation.
- Methods to account for accuracy in precipitation time series due to, e.g., change and improvement of observation networks.
- Uncertainty and variability in spatially and temporally heterogeneous multi-source precipitation products.
- Estimation of precipitation variability and uncertainty at ungauged sites.
- Precipitation data assimilation.
- Process conceptualization and approaches to modelling of precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales, including model parameter identification and calibration, and sensitivity analyses to parameterization and scales of process representation.
- Modelling approaches based on ensemble simulations and methods for synthetic representation of precipitation variability and uncertainty.
- Scaling and scale invariance properties of precipitation fields in space and/or in time.
- Physically and statistically based approaches to downscale information from meteorological and climate models to spatial and temporal scales useful for hydrological modelling and applications.

Co-organized by CL5.3/NH1/NP3
Convener: Giuseppe Mascaro | Co-conveners: Alin Andrei Carsteanu, Simone Fatichi, Roberto Deidda, Chris Onof
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:32 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44

CL6 – Short Courses

Programme group scientific officer: Eduardo Queiroz Alves

SC2.2

After the PhD, a new challenge begins: finding a position where you can continue your research or a
job outside academia where you can apply your advanced skills. This task is not
always easy, and frequently a general overview of the available positions is missing. Furthermore,
in some divisions, up to 70% of PhD graduates will go into work outside of academia. There are many
different careers which require or benefit from a research background. But often, students and
early career scientists struggle to make the transition due to reduced support and networking.
In this panel discussion, scientists with a range of backgrounds give their advice on where to find
jobs, how to transition between academia and industry and what are the pros and cons of a career
inside and outside of academia.
In the final section of the short course, a Q+A will provide the audience with a chance to ask
their questions to the panel. This panel discussion is aimed at early career scientists but anyone
with an interest in a change of career will find it useful. An extension of this short course will
run in the networking and early career scientist lounge, for further in-depth or
one-on-one questions with panel members.

Co-organized by AS6/CL6/GMPV12/TS1
Convener: Francesco Giuntoli | Co-conveners: Jenny Turton, Stephen ChuterECSECS, Anouk Beniest
Tue, 24 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
SC3.12

Meet editors of internationally renowned journals in geo- and biogeoscience and gain exclusive insights into the publishing process. After a short introduction into some basics, we will start exploring various facets of academic publishing with short talks given by the editors on

- What are the duties and roles of editors, authors and reviewers?
- How to choose a suitable journal for your manuscript and what is important for early career authors?
- How can early career scientists get involved in successful peer-reviewing?
- What is important for appropriate peer-reviewing?
- What are ethical aspects and responsibilities of publishing?

Together with the audience and the editors, we will have an open discussion of the key steps and factors shaping the publication process of a manuscript. This short course aims to provide early career scientists across several EGU divisions (e.g. AS, BG, CL, GM, NH, SSP and SSS) the opportunity of using first hand answers of experienced editors of international journals to successfully publish their manuscripts and get aware of the potentials and pitfalls in academic publishing.

Co-organized by AS6/BG2/CL6/GM14/NH11/OS5/SSP5/SSS13
Convener: Marcus Schiedung | Co-conveners: Steffen A. Schweizer, Hana JurikovaECSECS
Thu, 26 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room -2.85/86
SC3.3 EDI

On 9 August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first volume of its 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The Working Group I contribution to the Report (Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis) synthesises over 14,000 publications and represents the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the climate system and climate change. Crucially, the Report highlights the unprecedented and potentially irreversible influence of anthropogenic climate forcing, and for the first time, explicitly states that human influence on the climate system is unequivocal.

This short course will be a panel discussion where authors and contributors of Working Group I unpack how the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) is produced, provide personal behind-the-scenes insight on its development, and discuss its global impact, including how it is used to inform policy. Authors of the report will share their experiences of working on the report before and through the COVID pandemic. Panelists will also emphasise various ways in which scientists of all career stages can contribute to the IPCC process. Ample time will be allocated for open discussion for the audience to ask related questions to the panelists.

For more information about the AR6 please visit the IPCC website: https://www.ipcc.ch/.

Co-organized by AS6/CL6/CR8/HS11/NH11/OS5
Convener: TJ YoungECSECS | Co-conveners: Katherine Leitzell, Sarah Connors, Sophie BergerECSECS
Wed, 25 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
SC4.9

Observations and measurements of geophysical systems and dynamical phenomena are obtained as time series or spatio-temporal data whose dynamics usually manifests a nonlinear multiscale (in terms of time and space) behavior. During the past decades, nonlinear approaches in geosciences have rapidly developed to gain novel insights on weather and climate dynamics, fluid dynamics, on turbulence and stochastic behaviors, on the development of chaos in dynamical systems, and on concepts of networks, nowadays frequently employed in geosciences.

In this short course, we will offer a broad overview of the development and application of nonlinear concepts across the geosciences in terms of recent successful applications from various fields, ranging from climate to near-Earth space physics. The focus will be on a comparison between different methods to investigate various aspects of both known and unknown physical processes, moving from past accomplishments to future challenges.

Public information:

Peter Ditlevsen: "The paleoclimatic record, a tale of dynamics on many time scales: what can be learned about climate change"

Tommaso Alberti: "From global to local complexity measures: learning from dynamical systems and turbulence"

Reik Donner: "Harnessing causal discovery tools for process inference from multivariate geoscientific time series"

Co-organized by AS6/CL6/EMRP2/NP9/ST2
Convener: Tommaso Alberti | Co-conveners: Peter Ditlevsen, Reik Donner
Wed, 25 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
SC4.13

The climate system as a whole can be viewed as a highly complex thermal/heat engine, in which numerous processes continuously interact to transform heat into work and vice-versa. As any physical system, the climate system obeys the basic laws of thermodynamics, and we may therefore expect the tools of non-equilibrium thermodynamics to be particularly useful in describing and synthesising its properties. The main aim of this short course will be twofold. Part 1 will provide an advanced introduction to the fundamentals of equilibrium and non-equilibrium thermodynamics, irreversible processes and energetics of multicomponent stratified fluids. Part 2 will illustrate the usefulness of this viewpoint to summarize the main features of the climate system in terms of thermodynamic cycles, as well as a diagnostic tool to constrain the behavior of climate models. Although the aim is for this to be a self-contained module, some basic knowledge of the subject would be beneficial to the participants.
- The first part, chaired by Remi Tailleux, will provide an advanced introduction on the fundamentals of equilibrium and non-equilibrium thermodynamics, irreversible processes and energetics.
- The second part, chaired by Valerio Lembo and Gabriele Messori, will illustrate some applications of thermodynamics to the study of the climate system and its general circulation.

Public information:

The short course will be structured as such:
- Part 1 (45 mins): theoretical background, by Remi Tailleux;

- Short break (5 mins);

- Part 2 (15 mins): diagnosing thermodynamics in climate models, by Valerio Lembo;

- Part 3 (10 mins): dynamics and heat transports in the atmosphere, by Gabriele Messori;

- Part 4 (15 mins): questions;

Co-organized by AS6/CL6/NP9
Convener: Valerio Lembo | Co-conveners: Remi Tailleux, Gabriele Messori
Fri, 27 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room -2.85/86
SC4.11

The climate is highly variable over wide ranges of scale in both space and time so that the amplitude of changes systematically depends on the scale of observations. As a consequence, climate variations recorded in time series or spatial distributions, which are produced through modelling or empirical analyses are inextricably linked to their space-time scales and is a significant part of the uncertainties in the proxy approaches. Rather than treating the variability as a limitation to our knowledge, as a distraction from mechanistic explanations and theories, in this course the variability is treated as an important, fundamental aspect of the climate dynamics that must be understood and modelled in its own right. Long considered as no more than an uninteresting spectral “background”, modern data shows that in fact it contains most of the variance.

We review techniques that make it possible to systematically analyse and model the variability of instrumental and proxy data, the inferred climate variables and the outputs of GCM’s. These analyses enable us to cover wide ranges of scale in both space and in time - and jointly in space-time - without trivializing the links between the measurements, proxies and the state variables (temperature, precipitation etc.). They promise to systematically allow us to compare model outputs with data, to understand the climate processes from small to large and from fast to slow. Specific tools that will be covered include spectral analysis, scaling fluctuation analysis, wavelets, fractals, multifractals, and stochastic modeling; we discuss corresponding software. We also include new developments in the Fractional Energy Balance Equation approach that combines energy and scale symmetries.

Co-organized by CL6/NP9
Convener: Shaun Lovejoy | Co-conveners: Christian Franzke, Thomas Laepple
Mon, 23 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
SC4.10 EDI

Age models are applied in paleoclimatological, paleogeographic and geomorphologic studies to understand the timing of climatic and environmental change. Multiple independent geochronological dating methods are available to generate robust age models. For example, different kinds of radio isotopic dating, magneto-, bio-, cyclostratigraphy and sedimentological relationships along stratigraphic successions or in different landscape contexts. The integration of these different kinds of geochronological information often poses challenges.
Age-depth or chronological landscape models are the ultimate result of the integration of different geochronological techniques and range from linear interpolation to more complex Bayesian techniques. Invited speakers will share their experience in several modelling concepts and their application in a range of Quaternary paleoenvironmental and geomorphologic records. The Short Course will provide an overview of age models and the problems one encounters in climate science and geomorphology. Case studies and practical examples are given to present solutions for these challenges. It will prepare the participants from CL, GM and other divisions for independent application of suitable age-depth models to their climate or geomorphologic data.

Co-organized by CL6/GM2/SSP5
Convener: Aayush Srivastava | Co-conveners: Janina J. Nett, Nazimul Islam, Andrea Madella
Thu, 26 May, 17:00–19:00 (CEST)
 
Room -2.85/86
SC4.15

Within this course, the attendees are taught how to identify possible cyclicities in paleoclimate data (e.g., sediments, speleothems) or any other geological record. We will start from the basics of which data can be analysed, go over power spectra, and discuss the application of filters and Wavelet Analysis. We will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different methods, and give some examples from Earth Sciences to highlight common pitfalls. The aim of this course is to give a brief overview of the most common techniques and give participants the insight to prepare and analyse their data themselves. A variety of computational platforms are available for time-series analysis. In this course, we will introduce different tools and techniques by making use of the programming language R.

Co-organized by BG2/CL6/NP9/SSP5
Convener: Matthias SinnesaelECSECS | Co-conveners: Christian Zeeden, David De Vleeschouwer, Ricardo N. SantosECSECS
Tue, 24 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)|Pre-recorded
SC5.14 EDI

This Short Course is aimed at researchers in climate-related domains, who have an interest in working with climate data. We will introduce the ESMValTool, a Python project developed to facilitate the analysis of climate data through so-called recipes. An ESMValTool recipe specifies which input data will be used, which preprocessor functions will be applied, and which analytics should be computed. As such, it enables readable and reproducible workflows. The tool takes care of finding, downloading, and preparing data for analysis. It includes a suite of preprocessing functions for commonly used operations on the input data, such as regridding or computation of various statistics, as well as a large collection of established analytics.

In this course, we will run some of the available example recipes using ESMValTool’s convenient Jupyter notebook interface. You will learn how to customize the examples, in order to get started with implementing your own analysis. A number of core developers of ESMValTool will be present to answer any and all questions you may have.

The ESMValTool has been designed to analyze the data produced by Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), but it also supports commonly used observational and re-analysis climate datasets, such as ERA5. Version 2 of the ESMValTool has been specifically developed to target the increased data volume and complexity of CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. ESMValTool comes with a large number of well-established analytics, such as those in Chapter 9 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Flato et al., 2013) and has been extensively used in preparing the figures of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). In this way, the evaluation of model results can be made more efficient, thereby enabling scientists to focus on developing more innovative methods of analysis rather than constantly having to "reinvent the wheel".

Public information:

Course material will be made available at https://github.com/ESMValGroup/EGU22-short-course

Co-organized by BG9/CL6/ESSI1
Convener: Bouwe Andela | Co-conveners: Fakhereh Alidoost, Carsten Ehbrecht, Peter C. KalverlaECSECS, Klaus Zimmermann
Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room -2.85/86