The strength of terrestrial magnetospheric convection and transpolar ionospheric flow is well predicted by the ‘reconnection electric field’ EKL [1], a function of the solar wind velocity, V, and the interplanetary magnetic field, B. The convection response is linear under low EKL, but appears to saturate at high EKL, and several physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain this effect (see [2] for review). However, others postulate that the error distribution of EKL measurements introduces a regression bias that could account for the apparent saturation [3,4,5]. For space weather applications, EKL is typically measured near the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrange point, so we are motivated to quantify the distribution of errors introduced in propagating such measurements (i) from L1 to a region just outside the Bow Shock and (ii) onward to the polar ionosphere.
To characterise the error distribution in step (i), we compared OMNI solar wind measurements near L1[6], time-shifted to a model Bow Shock nose location, with a new 22-year database of periods for which the ESA Cluster satellites were just inside the pristine solar wind (over 5000 hours in total). We find that replacing OMNI-projected EKL measurements with direct Cluster measurements has only marginal effect on the ionospheric response as measured by, e.g., the cross-polar cap potential [7] or the PCC Polar Cap index [8] which remain non-linear. We discuss the implication of this result together with a further consideration of errors introduced between Cluster (near the Bow Shock) and the polar ionosphere.
References
1. Kan, J. R., and L. C. Lee (1979) https://doi.org/10.1029/GL006i007p00577
2. Borovsky, J. E. et al. (2009) https://doi.org/10.1029/2009ja014058
3. Borovsky, J. E. (2022) https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.867282
4. Di Matteo, S. and N. Sivadas (2022) https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.1060072
5. Sivadas, N., and D. G. Sibeck (2022) https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.924976
6. Papitashvili, N. E. (2024) https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov
7. Shepherd, S. G et al. (2002) https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JA000152
8. Stauning, P. (2021) https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2020074