Union-wide
Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
Disciplinary sessions AS–GM
Disciplinary sessions GMPV–TS

Session programme

NH

NH – Natural Hazards

Programme group chair: Ira Didenkulova

MAL1
Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture by Günter Blöschl
Convener: Helen Glaves
Abstract
| Tue, 24 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room E1
MAL3
Arne Richter Award for Outstanding ECS Lecture by Jakob Zscheischler
Convener: Ira Didenkulova
Programme
| Tue, 24 May, 15:15–15:22 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
MAL25
Plinius Medal Lecture by Slobodan Nickovic
Convener: Ira Didenkulova
Abstract
| Tue, 24 May, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
MAL28
Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture by Anne Mangeney
Convener: Ira Didenkulova
Abstract
| Mon, 23 May, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
ITS3.6/SM1.2
Late-breaking session: The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption – Observation, Understanding and Impact of large explosive volcanic eruptions

The 2021-2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption in Tonga was among the largest of recent decades. The event was notable for its high intensity, generating a convective column that rapidly ascended well into the stratosphere; for the atmospheric pressure wave generated by the explosion, which was detected globally; and for generating a tsunami that was observable across Pacific Ocean shorelines. Following a series of preceding seismic and explosive events since December 2021, the sustained phase of the eruption on 15th January was relatively short lived, but the associated pressure wave and tsunami impacts were the most far-reaching since the eruption of Krakatau volcano in 1883. Tsunamis were recorded both locally and in the far-field, but their mechanism(s) remains uncertain; in the near field being from either (or both of) the collapsing eruption column or a phreatomagmatic explosion as the erupting mass mixed with sea water. In the far-field the tsunamis are possibly best explained by the massive atmospheric pressure wave, that is the first instrumentally recorded eruption-generated event of its type, which affected the entire global atmosphere and ionosphere, causing the observed infrasound waves and unusual long-period seismic resonances.
This interdisciplinary late-breaking session welcomes contributions from all disciplines involved in local and global observations of this eruption and its effects, including remote sensing observations and modeling as well as hazard assessment and estimation of damage and long-term consequences.

Co-organized by AS4/GMPV10/NH/OS4
Convener: Torsten Dahm | Co-conveners: Hélène Hébert, David Tappin, Elvira Astafyeva, Sebastian Watt
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:47 (CEST)
 
Room N1
DM17
Division meeting for Natural Hazards (NH)
Convener: Ira Didenkulova
Mon, 16 May, 12:30–14:00 (CEST)|virtual

NH1 – Hydro-Meteorological Hazards

Programme group scientific officer: Yves Tramblay

NH1.1 EDI
Extreme heat events: processes, impacts and adaptation

Heat extremes are already one of the deadliest meteorological events and they are projected to increase in intensity and frequency due to rising CO2 emissions. The hazard these events pose to society may therefore increase dramatically, and society will need to adapt if the worst impacts are to be avoided. This session therefore welcomes a broad range of new research addressing the challenge of extreme heat. Suitable contributions may: (i) assess the drivers and underlying processes of extreme heat in observations and/or models; (ii) explore the diverse socio-economic impacts of extreme heat events (for example, on aspects relating to human health or economic productivity); (iii) address forecasting of extreme heat at seasonal to sub-seasonal time scales; (iv) focus on societal adaptation to extreme heat, including the implementation of Heat-Health Early Warning Systems for disaster risk reduction.

Co-organized by AS1
Convener: Martha Marie VogelECSECS | Co-conveners: Ana Casanueva, Tom Matthews
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–18:20 (CEST)
 
Room C
NH1.2 EDI
Advances in Pluvial and Fluvial Flood Forecasting, Assessment and Flood Risk Management

Worldwide, the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods are steadily increasing, causing large scale flooding, accompanied by great economic/human losses, in inundation-prone areas of the world. It hampers well-being and economic growth in many countries, so that flood forecasting and flood risk assessment & management have become of upmost importance. New and rapidly developing techniques are becoming widespread, such as UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), ML(Machine Learning) or satellite-based systems (e.g., SAR, Altimeter, SCATSAT-1, etc.). Combined with fit-for-purpose hydrodynamic/hydrological models, these techniques pave the way for breakthroughs in flood assessment and flood risk management. This provides a unique platform for the scientific community to explore the driving mechanisms of flood risk and to build up efficient strategies for flood mitigation and enhancing flood resilience. Emerging advances in computing technologies, coupled with big-data mining, have boosted data-driven applications, among which ML technology bearing flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction has modernised not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications.
This session invites presentations on research based on high-resolution aerial, satellite and ML techniques for flood monitoring and modelling, including mapping of inundation extent, flow depths, velocity fields, flood-induced morphodynamics, and debris transport. It also invites the presentation of innovative modelling techniques of flood hydrodynamics, flood hazard, damage and risk assessment, as well as flood relief prioritization, dam and dike (levees) break floods, and flood mitigation strategies. Studies dealing with the modelling uncertainties and modern techniques for model calibration and validation are particularly welcome. Furthermore, real-time flood inundation mapping is a critical aspect for the evacuation of people from low-lying areas and to reduce casualties. Acquisition of real-time data gained through UAV-based flood inundation mapping, ML and modelling techniques, as well as assessment of uncertainties in real-time aerial surveying are welcome in this session.

Co-organized by HS13
Convener: Dhruvesh Patel | Co-conveners: Benjamin Dewals, Cristina PrietoECSECS, Dawei Han
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:44 (CEST), 13:20–14:23 (CEST)
 
Room C
NH1.4
Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change

With global climate change affecting the frequency and severity of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, it is particularly necessary to develop models and methodologies for a better understanding and forecasting of present-day weather induced hazards. Future changes in the event characteristics as well as changes in vulnerability and exposure are among the further factors for determining risks for infrastructure and society, and for the development of suitable adaptation measures. This session considers extreme events that lead to disastrous hazards induced by severe weather and climate change. These can, e.g., be tropical or extratropical rain- and wind-storms, hail, tornadoes or lightning events, but also (toxic) floods, long-lasting periods of drought, periods of extremely high or of extremely low temperatures, etc. Papers are sought which contribute to the understanding of their occurrence (conditions and meteorological development), to assessment of their risk (economic losses, infrastructural damages, human fatalities, pollution), and their future changes, to the ability of models to reproduce them and methods to forecast them or produce early warnings, to proactive planning focusing on damage prevention and damage reduction. In order to understand fundamental processes, papers are also encouraged that look at complex extreme events produced by combinations or sequences of factors that are not extreme by themselves. The session serves as a forum for the interdisciplinary exchange of research approaches and results, involving meteorology, hydrology, environmental effects, hazard management and applications like insurance issues.

Co-organized by AS4/HS13
Convener: Athanasios Loukas | Co-conveners: Maria-Carmen Llasat, Uwe Ulbrich, Catrina Brüll, Piero BellanovaECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room C
NH1.5
Atmospheric Electricity, Thunderstorms, Lightning and their effects

Lightning is the energetic manifestation of electrical breakdown in the atmosphere, occurring as a result of charge separation processes operating on micro and macro-scales, leading to strong electric fields within thunderstorms. Lightning is associated with tropical storms and severe weather, torrential rains and flash floods. It has significant effects on various atmospheric layers and drives the fair-weather electric field. It is a strong indicator of convective processes on regional and global scales, potentially associated with climate change. Thunderstorms and lightning are also associated with the production of energetic radiation up to tens of MeV on time scales from sub-millisecond (Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes) to tens of seconds (gamma-ray glows).

This session seeks contributions from research in atmospheric electricity with emphasis on:

Atmospheric electricity in fair weather and the global electrical circuit
Effects of dust and volcanic ash on atmospheric electricity
Thunderstorm dynamics and microphysics
Middle atmospheric Transient Luminous Events
Energetic radiation from thunderstorms and lightning
Experimental investigations of lightning discharge physics processes
Remote sensing of lightning and related phenomena by space-based sensors
Thunderstorms, flash floods, tropical storms and severe weather
Modeling of thunderstorms and lightning
Now-casting and forecasting of thunderstorms using machine learning and AI
Regional and global lightning detection networks
Lightning Safety and its Societal Effects

Co-organized by AS4, co-sponsored by AGU and AGU-ASE
Convener: Yoav Yair | Co-conveners: Martino Marisaldi, Sonja Behnke, Serge Soula, Karen Aplin
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:47 (CEST), 13:20–16:09 (CEST)
 
Room C
NH1.6
Vegetation as nature-based solution for mitigating hydro-meteorological geohazards on slopes and streambanks

Climate-induced geohazards are known to increase with climate change causing more intense rainfall and more frequent extreme weather events. Use of vegetation on potentially unstable slopes and along stream banks is an example of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) that can mitigate climate induced geohazards due their role at the soil-atmosphere interface. Vegetating slopes or stream banks are also key for ecological restoration and rewilding, providing several additional co-benefits. However, researchers in different fields of science or practitioners do not easily communicate, even though they are addressing aspects of the same problem.
Interdisciplinary research and bilateral communication are needed to document the effects of vegetation in hazard-prone areas in a measurable and applicable manner. These NBS must have an ecological approach, where in the long-term perspective, a multiple approach for biodiversity and ecosystem services will give mutual synergies.

This session aims to stimulate interdisciplinary communication, knowledge exchange and dissemination on plant-soil-atmosphere interaction, with focus on vegetation mitigating climate-induced geohazards, particularly shallow landslides and erosion.
Contributions documenting how vegetation and roots can be beneficial also in land use planning, restoration ecology, climate change adaptation are welcome within the fields of geotechnical engineering, plant ecology, biodiversity, alpine timberline, hydrogeology and agronomy.
Interaction between research and industry, with involvement of NBS entrepreneurs, are particularly welcome.

Topics of interested are listed, including, but not limited to:
• Experimental, either laboratory or field, or numerical investigation of plant-soil-atmosphere interaction and its relation to slope or bank stability
• How to implement morpho-mechanical parameters of plants in engineering design?
• Measuring and quantifying the effects of vegetation as NBS to mitigate climate-induced geohazards
• Tools, approaches, and frameworks demonstrating how vegetation can be used to mitigate climate-induced geohazards, while providing additional co-benefits
• Investigation on upscaling potential from laboratory to slope and catchment scale
• Case studies of restoration or stabilisation works, especially on design principles and performance assessment
• Ensuring interdisciplinary interaction and mutual synergies for studies containing vegetation as NBS among different disciplines

Co-organized by GM3/HS13
Convener: Vittoria CapobiancoECSECS | Co-conveners: Sabatino Cuomo, Dominika Krzeminska, Anil YildizECSECS, Alessandro FraccicaECSECS
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:24 (CEST)
 
Room C
NH1.7 EDI
Hazard Risk Managment in Agriculture and Agroecosystems

In many parts of the world, weather represents one of the major uncertainties affecting performance and management of agricultural systems. Due to global climate changes the climatic variability and the occurrence of extreme weather events is likely to increase leading to substantial increase in agricultural risk and destabilisation of farm incomes. This issue is not only important for farm managers but also for policy makers, since income stabilisation in agriculture is frequently considered as a governmental task.

The aim of this session is to discuss the state of the art research in the area of analysis and management of weather-related risks in agriculture. Both structural and non-structural measures can be used to reduce the impact of climate variability including extreme weather on crop production. While the structural measures include strategies such as irrigation, water harvesting, windbreaks etc., the non-structural measures include the use of the medium-range weather forecast and crop insurance.

The topic is at the borderline of different disciplines, in particular agricultural and financial economics, meteorology, modelling and agronomy. Thus, the session offers a platform to exchange ideas and views on weather-related risks across these disciplines with the focus on quantifying the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production including impacts of climate change, analysis of financial instruments that allow reducing or sharing weather-related risks, evaluation of risk management strategies on the farm level, development of the theory of risk management and to exchange practical experiences with the different types of weather insurance.

This session has been promoted by:
• Natural hazard Early career scientists Team (NhET, https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/nh/tag/early-career-scientists/)
• Research Center for the Management of Agriculutral and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM, http://www.ceigram.upm.es/ingles/)

Convener: Margarita Ruiz-Ramos | Co-conveners: Alfredo Rodríguez, Ana Maria Tarquis, Anne Gobin, David Rivas-TabaresECSECS
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room C
HS4.1 EDI
Anticipation of flash floods and rainfall-induced hydro-geomorphic hazards: short-range observational and forecasting strategies.

Flash floods triggered by heavy precipitation in small- to medium-sized catchments often cause catastrophic damages, which are largely explained by the very short response times and high specific peak discharge. Often, they are also associated with geomorphic processes such as erosion, sediment transport, debris flows and shallow landslides. The anticipation of such events is crucial for efficient crisis management. However, their predictability is still affected by large uncertainties, due to the fast evolution of triggering rainfall events, the lack of appropriate observations, the high variability and non-linearity in the physical processes, the high variability of societal exposure, and the complexity of societal vulnerability.
This session aims to illustrate current advances in monitoring, modeling, and short-range forecasting of flash floods and associated geomorphic processes, including their societal impacts.
Contributions related to the floods that occured in July 2021 in Germany and Western Europe, and in October 2020 in France and Italy (Alex storm) are particularly encouraged this year.
Contributions on the following scientific themes are specifically expected:
- Monitoring and nowcasting of heavy precipitation events based on radar and remote sensing (satellite, lightning, etc.) to complement rain gauge networks;
- Short-range (0-6h) heavy precipitation forecasting based on NWP models, with a focus on seamless forecasting strategies and ensemble strategies for the representation of uncertainties;
- Understanding and modeling of flash floods and associated geomorphic processes at appropriate space-time scales;
- Development of integrated hydro-meteorological forecasting chains and new modeling approaches for predicting flash floods and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards in gauged and ungauged basins;
- New direct and indirect (proxy data) observation techniques and strategies for the observation or monitoring of hydrological reactions and geomorphic processes, and the validation of forecasting approaches;
- Development of impact-based modeling and forecasting approaches, including inundation mapping and/or specific impacts modeling approaches for the representation of societal vulnerability.

Co-organized by GM1/NH1
Convener: Olivier Payrastre | Co-conveners: Clàudia AbancóECSECS, Jonathan Gourley, Pierre Javelle, Massimiliano Zappa
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 10:20–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 2.31
HS7.6 EDI
Precipitation and urban hydrology

Urban hydrological processes are characterized by high spatial variability and short response times resulting from a high degree of imperviousness. Therefore, urban catchments are especially sensitive to space-time variability of precipitation at small scales. High-resolution precipitation measurements in cities are crucial to properly describe and analyses urban hydrological responses. At the same time, urban landscapes pose specific challenges to obtaining representative precipitation and hydrological observations.

This session focuses on high-resolution precipitation and hydrological measurements in cities and on approaches to improve modeling of urban hydrological response, including:
- Novel techniques for high-resolution precipitation measurement in cities and for multi-sensor data merging to improve the representation of urban precipitation fields.
- Novel approaches to hydrological field measurements in cities, including data obtained from citizen observatories.
- Precipitation modeling for urban applications, including convective permitting models and stochastic rainfall generators.
- Novel approaches to modeling urban catchment properties and hydrological response, from physics-based, conceptual and data-driven models to stochastic and statistical conceptualization.
- Applications of measured precipitation fields to urban hydrological models to improve hydrological prediction at different time horizons to ultimately enable improved management of urban drainage systems (including catchment strategy development, flood forecasting and management, real-time control, and proactive protection strategies aimed at preventing flooding and pollution).
- Strategies to deal with upcoming challenges, including climate change and rapid urbanization.

Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Nadav Peleg | Co-conveners: Lotte de VosECSECS, Hannes Müller-ThomyECSECS, Susana Ochoa Rodriguez, Li-Pen Wang
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 17:00–18:20 (CEST)
 
Room L2
HS7.5 EDI
Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability, risk, impacts and mitigation

Extreme hydro-meteorological events drive many hydrologic and geomorphic hazards, such as floods, landslides and debris flows, which pose a significant threat to modern societies on a global scale. The continuous increase of population and urban settlements in hazard-prone areas in combination with evidence of changes in extreme weather events lead to a continuous increase in the risk associated with weather-induced hazards. To improve resilience and to design more effective mitigation strategies, we need to better understand the aspects of vulnerability, risk, and triggers that are associated with these hazards.
This session aims at gathering contributions dealing with various hydro-meteorological hazards that address the aspects of vulnerability analysis, risk estimation, impact assessment, mitigation policies and communication strategies. Specifically, we aim to collect contributions from academia, the industry (e.g. insurance) and government agencies (e.g. civil protection) that will help identify the latest developments and ways forward for increasing the resilience of communities at local, regional and national scales, and proposals for improving the interaction between different entities and sciences.
Contributions focusing on, but not limited to, novel developments and findings on the following topics are particularly encouraged:
- Physical and social vulnerability analysis and impact assessment of hydro-meteorological hazards
- Advances in the estimation of socioeconomic risk from hydro-meteorological hazards
- Characteristics of weather and precipitation patterns leading to high-impact events
- Relationship between weather and precipitation patterns and socio-economic impacts
- Hazard mitigation procedures
- Strategies for increasing public awareness, preparedness, and self-protective response
- Impact-based forecast, warning systems, and rapid damage assessment.
- Insurance and reinsurance applications

Co-organized by NH1/NP8
Convener: Francesco Marra | Co-conveners: Elena CristianoECSECS, Nadav Peleg, Federica RemondiECSECS, Efthymios Nikolopoulos
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–16:26 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
HS7.1
Precipitation modelling: uncertainty, variability, assimilation, ensemble simulation and downscaling

The assessment of precipitation variability and uncertainty is crucial in a variety of applications, such as flood risk forecasting, water resource assessments, evaluation of the hydrological impacts of climate change, determination of design floods, and hydrological modelling in general. This session aims to gather contributions on research, advanced applications, and future needs in the understanding and modelling of precipitation variability, and its sources of uncertainty.
Contributions focusing on one or more of the following issues are particularly welcome:
- Novel studies aimed at the assessment and representation of different sources of uncertainty versus natural variability of precipitation.
- Methods to account for accuracy in precipitation time series due to, e.g., change and improvement of observation networks.
- Uncertainty and variability in spatially and temporally heterogeneous multi-source precipitation products.
- Estimation of precipitation variability and uncertainty at ungauged sites.
- Precipitation data assimilation.
- Process conceptualization and approaches to modelling of precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales, including model parameter identification and calibration, and sensitivity analyses to parameterization and scales of process representation.
- Modelling approaches based on ensemble simulations and methods for synthetic representation of precipitation variability and uncertainty.
- Scaling and scale invariance properties of precipitation fields in space and/or in time.
- Physically and statistically based approaches to downscale information from meteorological and climate models to spatial and temporal scales useful for hydrological modelling and applications.

Co-organized by CL5.3/NH1/NP3
Convener: Giuseppe Mascaro | Co-conveners: Alin Andrei Carsteanu, Simone Fatichi, Roberto Deidda, Chris Onof
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:32 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
HS7.7 EDI
Spatial extremes in the hydro- and atmosphere: understanding and modelling

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as floods, droughts, storms, or heatwaves often affect large regions therefore causing large damages and costs. Hazard and risk assessments, aiming at reducing the negative consequences of such extreme events, are often performed with a focus on one location despite the spatially compounding nature of extreme events. While spatial extremes receive a lot of attention by the media, little is known about their driving factors and it remains challenging to assess their risk by modelling approaches. Key challenges in advancing our understanding of spatial extremes and in developing new modeling approaches include the definition of multivariate events, the quantification of spatial dependence, the dealing with large dimensions, the introduction of flexible dependence structures, the estimation of their probability of occurrence, the identification of potential drivers for spatial dependence, and linking different spatial scales. This session invites contributions which help to better understand processes governing spatial extremes and/or propose new ways of describing and modeling spatially compounding events at different spatial scales.

Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Manuela Irene BrunnerECSECS | Co-conveners: András Bárdossy, Philippe Naveau, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Elena Volpi
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 17:00–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
HS4.3 EDI
Ensemble and probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts: predictive uncertainty, verification and decision making

This session brings together scientists, forecasters, practitioners and stakeholders interested in exploring the use of ensemble hydro-meteorological forecast techniques in hydrological applications: e.g., flood control and warning, reservoir operation for hydropower and water supply, transportation, and agricultural management. It will address the understanding of sources of predictability and quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty of hydrological extremes in deterministic and ensemble hydrological forecasting. Uncertainty estimation in operational forecasting systems is becoming a more common practice. However, a significant research challenge and central interest of this session is to understand the sources of predictability and development of approaches, methods and techniques to enhance predictability (e.g. accuracy, reliability etc.) and quantify and reduce predictive uncertainty in general. Ensemble data assimilation, NWP preprocessing, multi-model approaches or hydrological postprocessing can provide important ways of improving the quality (e.g. accuracy, reliability) and increasing the value (e.g. impact, usability) of deterministic and ensemble hydrological forecasts. The models involved with the methods for predictive uncertainty, data assimilation, post-processing and decision-making may include machine learning models, ANNs, catchment models, runoff routing models, groundwater models, coupled meteorological-hydrological models as well as combinations (multimodel) of these. Demonstrations of the sources of predictability and subsequent quantification and reduction in predictive uncertainty at different scales through improved representation of model process (physics, parameterization, numerical solution, data support and calibration) and error, forcing and initial state are of special interest to the session.

Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Jan Verkade | Co-conveners: Trine Jahr Hegdahl, Albrecht Weerts, Shaun HarriganECSECS, Kolbjorn Engeland
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:55–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
HS4.2 EDI
Drought and water scarcity: monitoring, modelling and forecasting to improve hydro-meteorological risk management

Drought and water scarcity are important issues in many regions of the Earth. While the projected increase in the severity and frequency of droughts can lead to water scarcity situations, particularly in regions that are already water-stressed, overexploitation of available water resources can exacerbate the consequences of droughts. In the worst case, this can lead to long-term environmental and socio-economic impacts. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting are recognized as one of three pillars of effective drought management, and it is, therefore, necessary to improve both monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting for droughts and water availability and to develop innovative indicators and methodologies that translate the information provided into effective drought early warning and risk management. This session addresses statistical, remote sensing and physically-based techniques, aimed at monitoring, modelling and forecasting hydro-meteorological variables relevant to drought and/or water scarcity. These include, but are not limited to, precipitation, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater levels, and extreme temperatures. The development and implementation of drought indicators meaningful to decision-making processes, and ways of presenting and integrating these with the needs and knowledge of water managers, policymakers and other stakeholders, are further issues that are addressed. The session aims to bring together scientists, practitioners and stakeholders in the fields of hydrology and meteorology, as well as in the field of water resources and/or drought risk management, also including drought and water scarcity interrelationship, hydrological impacts, and feedbacks with society. Particularly welcome are applications and real-world case studies in regions subject to significant water stress, where the importance of drought warning, supported through state-of-the-art monitoring and forecasting of water resources availability, is likely to become more important in the future.

Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Brunella Bonaccorso | Co-conveners: Carmelo Cammalleri, Athanasios Loukas, Micha Werner, Yonca CavusECSECS
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–17:52 (CEST)
 
Room B
CL3.2.8 EDI
Understanding and quantifying low-likelihood weather and climate extremes

With recent extreme events reaching far beyond existing records, such as the Pacific Northwest heat wave and severe flooding in Western Europe, eastern US and across China, the discussion to what extent we are prepared for unprecedented extremes and whether existing methods and models are able to capture them has flared up. It is becoming increasingly essential to understand and quantify plausible rare, high-impact events for risk management and adaptation.
Methods to understand and evaluate low-likelihood extreme events have seen substantial advancements over the recent years. Event attribution studies are now providing rapid analyses of unprecedented extreme events; physical climate storylines are developed to evaluate plausible rather than likely events; causal inference is used to understand drivers of very rare events; near-miss events and potential analogues in space, historical and paleo archives are evaluated; spatial extreme value analysis and machine learning methods are applied, large ensembles representing various outcomes are generated, such as Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs); and weather prediction systems are increasingly being employed, such as the through the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) approach.
This session aims to bring together communities from weather prediction, climate projection, hydrology to impact and risk management, and to learn from the variety of methods to understand and quantify low-likelihood extreme events in the present and future climate. The session welcomes contributions at all temporal and spatial scales, and all types of extremes and invites novel methods – including downward counterfactuals and causal inference – as well as new results on unforeseen climate risks – including those from compound events and low-likelihood high-warming outcomes.

Co-organized by AS4/HS13/NH1
Convener: Timo KelderECSECS | Co-conveners: Erich Fischer, Laura Suarez-GutierrezECSECS, Karin van der Wiel
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 15:10–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
HS4.4 EDI
Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards and climate emergency: challenges and innovations

This interactive session aims to bridge the gap between science and practice in operational forecasting for different climate and water-related natural hazards including their dynamics and interdependencies. Operational (early) warning systems are the result of progress and innovations in the science of forecasting. New opportunities have risen in physically based modelling, coupling meteorological and hydrological forecasts, ensemble forecasting, impact-based forecasting and real time control. Often, the sharing of knowledge and experience about developments are limited to the particular field (e.g. flood forecasting or landslide warnings) for which the operational system is used. Increasingly, humanitarian, disaster risk management and climate adaptation practitioners are using forecasts and warning information to enable anticipatory/ early action that saves lives and livelihoods. It is important to understand their needs, their decision-making process and facilitate their involvement in forecasting and warning design and implementation (co-development).

The focus of this session will be on bringing the expertise from different fields together as well as exploring differences, similarities, problems and solutions between forecasting systems for varying hazards including climate emergency. Real-world case studies of system implementations - configured at local, regional, national, continental and global scales - will be presented, including trans-boundary issues. An operational warning system can include, for example, monitoring of data, analysing data, making and visualizing forecasts, giving warning signals and suggesting early action and response measures.

Contributions are welcome from both scientists and practitioners who are involved in developing and using operational forecasting and/or management systems for climate and water-related hazards, such as flood, drought, tsunami, landslide, hurricane, hydropower, pollution etc. We also welcome contributions from early career practitioners and scientists.

Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Michael Cranston | Co-conveners: Céline Cattoën-Gilbert, Lydia CumiskeyECSECS, Ilias Pechlivanidis
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–15:52 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
HS5.10 EDI
Green infrastructure for sustainable urban hazard management

Urban areas are at risk from multiple hazards, including urban flooding, droughts and water shortages, sea level rise, disease spread and issues with food security. Consequently, many urban areas are adapting their approach to hazard management and are applying Green Infrastructure (GI) solutions as part of wider integrated schemes.

This session aims to provide researchers with a platform to present and discuss the application, knowledge gaps and future research directions of urban GI and how sustainable green solutions can contribute towards an integrated and sustainable urban hazard management approach. We welcome original research contributions across a series of disciplines with a hydrological, climatic, soil sciences, ecological and geomorphological focus, and encourage the submission of abstracts which demonstrate the use of GI at a wide range of scales and geographical distributions. We invite contributions focusing on (but not restricted to):

· Monitored case studies of GI, Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) or Nature Based Solutions (NBS), which provide an evidence base for integration within a wider hazard management system;

· GIS and hazard mapping analyses to determine benefits, shortcomings and best management practices of urban GI implementation;

· Laboratory-, field- or GIS-based studies which examine the effectiveness or cost/benefit ratio of GI solutions in relation to their wider ecosystem potential;

· Methods for enhancing, optimising and maximising GI system potential;

· Innovative and integrated approaches or systems for issues including (but not limited to): bioretention/stormwater management; pollution control; carbon capture and storage; slope stability; urban heat exchange, and; urban food supply;

· Catchment-based approaches or city-scale studies demonstrating the opportunities of GI at multiple spatial scales;

· Rethinking urban design and sustainable and resilient recovery following crisis onset;

· Engagement and science communication of GI systems to enhance community resilience.

Co-organized by GM12/NH1
Convener: Daniel GreenECSECS | Co-conveners: Lei LiECSECS, Jorge Isidoro
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–16:34 (CEST)
 
Room L2
AS1.3 EDI
Forecasting the weather

Forecasting the weather, in particular severe and extreme weather has always been the most important subject in meteorology. This session will focus on recent research and developments on forecasting techniques, in particular those designed for operations and impact oriented. Contributions related to nowcasting, meso-scale and convection permitting modelling, ensemble prediction techniques, and statistical post-processing are very welcome.
Topics may include:
 Nowcasting methods and systems, use of observations and weather analysis
 Mesoscale and convection permitting modelling
 Ensemble prediction techniques
 Ensemble-based products for severe/extreme weather forecasting
 Seamless deterministic and probabilistic forecast prediction
 Post-processing techniques, statistical methods in prediction
 Use of machine learning, data mining and other advanced analytical techniques
 Impact oriented weather forecasting
 Presentation of results from relevant international research projects of EU, WMO, and EUMETNET etc.

Co-organized by NH1/NP5
Convener: Yong Wang | Co-conveners: Aitor Atencia, Chaohui Chen, Lesley De CruzECSECS, Daniele NeriniECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 15:10–17:42 (CEST)
 
Room F1
AS1.11
Mid-latitude Cyclones and Storms: Diagnostics of Observed and Future Trends, and related Impacts

This session investigates mid-latitude cyclones and storms on both hemispheres. We invite studies considering cyclones in different stages of their life cycles from the initial development, to large- and synoptic-scale conditions influencing their growth to a severe storm, up to their dissipation and related socioeconomic impacts.
Papers are welcome, which focus also on the diagnostic of observed past and recent trends, as well as on future storm development under changed climate conditions. This will include storm predictability studies on different scales. Finally, the session will also invite studies investigating impacts related to storms: Papers are welcome dealing with vulnerability, diagnostics of sensitive social and infrastructural categories and affected areas of risk for property damages. Which risk transfer mechanisms are currently used, depending on insured and economic losses? Which mechanisms (e.g. new reinsurance products) are already implemented or will be developed in order to adapt to future loss expectations?

Co-organized by CL3.2/NH1
Convener: Gregor C. Leckebusch | Co-conveners: Jennifer Catto, Joaquim G. Pinto, Uwe Ulbrich
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room M2
GM10.2 EDI
From hydro-climatology to hydro-geomorphology under extreme climatic events

It becomes increasingly accepted that many regions all over the world are experiencing an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events and potentially in their properties. For predicting the impact of future climate change on the landscape, it is therefore vital to understand the dynamics of surface processes under extreme events. Furthermore, focusing on the conditions necessary for extreme events to occur can provide key insights into past changes in climate at different time scales. Extreme storms cause a multitude of hydrogeomorphic and natural hazards responses, including floods and respective fluvial responses, hillslope erosion and failures, and debris flows from slopes into fluvial systems. Measuring, evaluating, and predicting the impacts of extreme rainstorms, however, remains challenging due to the difficult-to-predict and complex nature of storms and rainfall-surface interactions.
This interdisciplinary session focuses on the causative chain which links the deterministic and mostly stochastic nature of the synoptic to meso/regional and watershed scales of extreme storms, to their respective transformation into watershed, slope, and stream hydrology, and to their geomorphic impact. We welcome studies from all the parts of this chain, from all climates, and at all temporal scales, that are focusing on the hydrological responses to extreme events and on their imprints on the landscape through erosion and sediment movement. We favor studies with emphasis on the final noticeable impact of extreme events on the landscape and/or on the integrated long-term consequences of extreme storm regime on landscape evolution. Especially, we encourage studies presenting new physical/stochastic modeling approaches that explicitly investigated the impact of extreme events on the landscape.

Co-organized by CL3.1/HS13/NH1
Convener: Yuval Shmilovitz | Co-conveners: Francesco Marra, Efrat Morin, Yehouda Enzel, Roberta Paranunzio
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 11:05–11:40 (CEST)
 
Room G2
GM6.5 EDI
Coastal subsidence: natural and anthropogenic drivers

Low-lying coastal areas can be an early casualty to sea-level rise, especially where enhanced by land subsidence. An ever increasing number of studies indicates that land subsidence due to natural and anthropogenic causes has induced damage to wetland ecosystems in many countries worldwide, and has increased flooding hazard and risk. Coastal subsidence causes include excessive groundwater extraction from aquifers, peat oxidation due to surface water drainage through land reclamation, urbanization and agricultural use, as well as sediment starvation due to construction of dams and artificial levees. Contrary to the global processes behind sea-level rise, natural and anthropogenic coastal subsidence is primarily a local phenomenon, and its causes and severity may vary substantially from place to place.
The combination of geological and historical measurements with remote sensing data is required to understand all drivers of coastal vertical land motion and the contributions to past, present, and future subsidence.
Understanding coastal subsidence requires multidisciplinary expertise, models, and remote and in-situ observations from geology, geodesy, natural hazards, oceanography, hydrogeology, and geomechanics. In this session, we aim to bring together all the involved disciplines. We invite contributions on all aspects of coastal subsidence research and applications, including recent advances on: i) measurement through ground-based, aerial and satellite remote sensing techniques, ii) numerical models and future projections, iii) their applicability to distinguish between the different drivers contributing to land subsidence, and iv) quantification of coastal hazards associated with relative sea-level rise. In particular, efforts towards characterizing human intervention on coastal vertical land motion are welcomed.

Co-organized by G3/NH1
Convener: Francesca Cigna | Co-conveners: Makan A. KaregarECSECS, Simon Engelhart, Thomas FrederikseECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room G2
GM2.2 EDI
Assessing and monitoring geomorphic processes across scales

Transport of sediments in geophysical flows occurs in mountainous, fluvial, estuarine, coastal, aeolian and other natural or man-made environments on Earth, while also shapes the surface of planets such as Mars, Titan, and Venus. Understanding the motion of sediments is still one of the most fundamental problems in hydrological and geophysical sciences. Such processes can vary across a wide range of scales - from the particle to the landscape - which can directly impact both the form (geomorphology) and, on Earth, the function (ecology and biology) of natural systems and the built infrastructure surrounding them. In particular, feedback between flow and sediment transport as well as interparticle interactions including size sorting are a key processes in surface dynamics, finding a range of important applications, from hydraulic engineering and natural hazard mitigation to landscape evolution and river ecology.

Specific topics of interest include (but are not restricted to):

A) particle-scale interactions and transport processes:
-mechanics of entrainment and disentrainment (for fluvial and aeolian flows)
-momentum (turbulent impulses) and energy transfer between turbulent flows and particles
-upscaling and averaging techniques for stochastic transport processes
-interaction among grain sizes in poorly sorted mixtures, including particle segregation

B) reach-scale sediment transport and geomorphic processes
-bedform generation, evolution and disintegration dynamics (e.g. for dunes and other formations)
-discrete element modelling of transport processes and upscaling into continuum frameworks
-derivation and solution of equations for multiphase flows (including fluvial and aeolian flows)
-shallow water hydro-sediment-morphodynamic processes

C) large-scale, highly unsteady and complex water-sediment flows:
-flash floods, debris flows and landslides due to extreme rainfall
-natural and build dam failures and compound disasters (due to landslides, debris flow intrusion and downstream flooding)
-reservoir operation schemes and corresponding fluvial processes
-design of hydraulic structures such as fish passages, dam spillways, also considering the impact of sediment
-dredging, maintenance and regulation for large rivers and navigational waterways

Co-organized by GI5/NH1
Convener: Manousos Valyrakis | Co-conveners: Zhixian Cao, Rui Miguel Ferreira, Anita Moldenhauer-RothECSECS, Eric Lajeunesse
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room G2
GM2.1 EDI
New approaches for monitoring and modelling sediment transport

Sediment transport is a fundamental component of all geomorphic systems (including fluvial, aeolian, coastal, hillslopes and glacial), yet it is something that we still find surprisingly difficult both to monitor and to model. Robust data on where and how sediment transport occurs are needed to address outstanding research questions, including the spatial and temporal controls on critical shear stress, the influence of varying grain size distributions, and the impact of large magnitude events. Recent developments have provided a) new opportunities for measuring sediment transport in the field; and b) new ways to represent sediment transport in both physical laboratory models and in numerical models. These developments include (but are not limited to) the application of techniques such as seismic and acoustic monitoring, 3D imaging (e.g. CT and MRI scanning), deployment of sensors such as accelerometers, replication of field topography using 3D printing, use of luminescence as a sediment tracer, remote sensing of turbidity, discrete numerical modelling, and new statistical approaches.

In this session we welcome contributions from all areas of geomorphology that develop new methods for monitoring and modelling all types of sediment transport, or that showcase an application of such methods. Contributions from ECRs and underrepresented groups are particularly encouraged.

Co-organized by GI5/NH1
Convener: Rebecca Hodge | Co-conveners: Kristen Cook, Georgina Bennett, Maarten BakkerECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 15:10–18:24 (CEST)
 
Room K2

NH2 – Volcanic Hazards

Programme group scientific officer: Paraskevi Nomikou

NH2.1 EDI
Living with volcanoes: Insights into Volcanic Emissions and their Impacts on the Environment, Climate and Health

Volcanoes play an essential role in society through their impacts on human
life, infrastructure, and the environment. Those in marine settings pose
hazards, such as the awakening of submarine volcanoes, underwater
explosions, and sudden release of harmful gases from the volcano or
overlying water column, and tsunami inundation of neighboring coastlines
due to caldera collapse, submarine landslides, or entry of pyroclastic
flows into the sea. Specifically, volcanic degassing plays a dominant role
in forcing the timing and nature of volcanic unrest and eruptions in such
settings. On the other hand, quiescent passive degassing and
smaller-magnitude eruptions can impact the regional climate system. For
those reasons understanding the exsolution processes of gas species
dissolved in magma and measuring their emissions is crucial to
characterize the eruptive mechanism and evaluate the subsequent impacts on
the atmospheric composition, the environment, and the biosphere.
The session will be focused on multidisciplinary monitoring volcanic
environments, including in the vicinity of cities and highly touristic areas. Since
gas emissions are measured and monitored via in-situ and remote sensing
techniques, we invite contributions to studies that gain insights into the
subterranean-surface processes and quantify their impacts. In addition, we
encourage studies that focus on modelling the subsurface and
atmospheric/climatic processes and laboratory experiments that are
fundamental to the interpretation of field-based and satellite
observations. Finally, we will undoubtedly discuss the ability to
recognize the hazards and their impact on people, emergency management by
civil protection authorities, community education, case studies and risk
mitigation to reduce the effects of volcanism and its societal impact.

Co-organized by GMPV10
Convener: Paraskevi Nomikou | Co-conveners: Giuseppe G. Salerno, Dimitrios Papanikolaou, Pasquale Sellitto
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 17:00–18:27 (CEST)
 
Room M2
GMPV9.4 EDI
Volcanic processes: Tectonics, deformation, geodesy, unrest

The session deals with the documentation and modelling of the tectonic, deformation and geodetic features of any type of volcanic area, on Earth and in the Solar System. The focus is on advancing our understanding on any type of deformation of active and non-active volcanoes, on the associated behaviours, and the implications for hazards. We welcome contributions based on results from fieldwork, remote-sensing studies, geodetic and geophysical measurements, analytical, analogue and numerical simulations, and laboratory studies of volcanic rocks.

Studies may be focused at the regional scale, investigating the tectonic setting responsible for and controlling volcanic activity, both along divergent and convergent plate boundaries, as well in intraplate settings. At a more local scale, all types of surface deformation in volcanic areas are of interest, such as elastic inflation and deflation, or anelastic processes, including caldera and flank collapses. Deeper, sub-volcanic deformation studies, concerning the emplacement of intrusions, as sills, dikes and laccoliths, are most welcome.

We also particularly welcome geophysical data aimed at understanding magmatic processes during volcano unrest. These include geodetic studies obtained mainly through GPS and InSAR, as well as at their modelling to imagine sources.



The session includes, but is not restricted to, the following topics:

volcanism and regional tectonics;
formation of magma chambers, laccoliths, and other intrusions;
dyke and sill propagation, emplacement, and arrest;
earthquakes and eruptions;
caldera collapse, resurgence, and unrest;
flank collapse;
volcano deformation monitoring;
volcano deformation and hazard mitigation;
volcano unrest;
mechanical properties of rocks in volcanic areas.

Co-organized by G3/NH2/TS11
Convener: Virginie Pinel | Co-conveners: Thorbjorg Agustsdottir, Agust Gudmundsson, Sigurjon Jonsson, Michael Heap
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 17:00–18:29 (CEST)
 
Room D2, Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:49 (CEST), 13:20–14:45 (CEST)
 
Room D2
GMPV10.4 EDI
Advances in numerical modelling of volcanic hazards

Developing physical-mathematical models able to describe the evolution of eruptive phenomena is a key point in volcanology. In the case of high-risk phenomena, such as lava flows or ash dispersal, predicting their spatial and temporal evolution and determining the potentially affected areas is fundamental in supporting every action directed at mitigating the risk as well as for environmental planning.
This session aims to address unresolved challenging questions related to complex geophysical flow modeling and simulation, gathering physical-mathematical models, numerical methods and field and satellite data analysis in order to: (i) expand knowledge of complex volcanic processes and their space-time dynamics; (ii) monitor and model volcanic phenomena; (iii) evaluate model robustness through validation against real case studies, analytical solutions and laboratory experiments; (iv) quantify the uncertainty propagation through both forward (sensitivity analyses) and inverse (optimization/calibration) modelling in all components of volcanic hazard modelling in response to eruptive crises.

Co-organized by NH2
Convener: Gaetana Ganci | Co-conveners: Vito ZagoECSECS, Giuseppe Bilotta, Alexis Herault, Annalisa CappelloECSECS
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 15:10–16:35 (CEST)
 
Room -2.16
GMPV9.3 EDI
Volcano-glacier interactions: Arctic, Antarctic, and globally

Glaciers and volcanoes interact in a number of ways, including instances where volcanic/geothermal activity alters glacier dynamics or mass balance, via subglacial eruptions or the deposition of supraglacial tephra. Glaciers can also impact volcanism, for example by directly influencing mechanisms of individual eruptions resulting in the construction of distinct edifices. Glaciers may also influence patterns of eruptive activity when mass balance changes adjust the load on volcanic systems, the water resources and hydrothermal systems. However, because of the remoteness of many glacio-volcanic environments, these interactions remain poorly understood.
In these complex settings, hazards associated with glacier-volcano interaction can vary from lava flows to volcanic ash, lahars, landslides, pyroclastic flows or glacial outburst floods. These can happen consecutively or simultaneously and affect not only the earth, but also glaciers, rivers and the atmosphere. As accumulating, melting, ripping or drifting glaciers generate signals as well as degassing, inflating/ deflating or erupting volcanoes, the challenge is to study, understand and ultimately discriminate these potentially coexisting signals. We wish to fully include geophysical observations of current and recent events with geological observations and interpretations of deposits of past events. Glaciovolcanoes also often preserve a unique record of the glacial or non-glacial eruptive environment that is capable of significantly advancing our knowledge of how Earth's climate system evolves.
We invite contributions that deal with the mitigation of the hazards associated with ice-covered volcanoes in the Arctic, Antarctic or globally, that improve the understanding of signals generated by ice-covered volcanoes, or studies focused on volcanic impacts on glaciers and vice versa. Research on recent activity is especially welcomed. This includes geological observations e.g. of deposits in the field or remote-sensing data, together with experimental and modelling approaches. We also invite contributions from any part of the world on past activity, glaciovolcanic deposits and studies that address climate and environmental change through glaciovolcanic studies. We aim to bring together scientists from volcanology, glaciology, seismology, geodesy, hydrology, geomorphology and atmospheric science in order to enable a broad discussion and interaction.

Co-organized by CR3/GM7/NH2/SM1, co-sponsored by IACS and IAVCEI
Convener: Eva EiblECSECS | Co-conveners: Iestyn Barr, Adelina Geyer, gioachino roberti
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–10:00 (CEST)
 
Room -2.47/48
GMPV9.1 EDI
The sustained low-intensity 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: precursors, nature and impact

The Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland started on 19 March 2021. It provides a unique opportunity to study all aspects of a low-intensity effusive basaltic eruption in great detail using multidisciplinary approaches. The Fagradalsfjall eruption followed a several-week long period of intense seismicity and deformation associated with formation of the feeding dike. The eruption terminated on September 18, 2021, after producing a lava field covering about 4.5 km2. The eruption progressed through several phases, each characterized by different emission sources, eruptive style, intensities, and associated hazards. The eruption may be representative of the formation of a shield volcano, a process that the scientific community has had limited chances to observe in real time.

We welcome submissions on sustained low-intensity basaltic eruptions including (but not limited to) the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption; their plumbling systems, eruptive products, and impacts. We particularly encourage comparative studies across different regions that may help us to better understand the volcanic processes that are active in the Fagradalsfjall eruption.

Topics may include, for example: physical volcanology of eruptive products and eruptive behavior; lava flow modeling; acoustic studies; petrology; geochemistry and interaction with groundwater; studies of volcanic gases; crustal deformation; seismology; volcano monitoring; social effects; health effects; hazard mitigation; tectonic implications; volcano-tectonic interactions; atmosphere-climate interactions, etc.

Co-organized by AS4/NH2/SM6/TS11
Convener: Halldór Geirsson | Co-conveners: Eva EiblECSECS, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Sara Barsotti, Eniko Bali
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room -2.47/48
GMPV9.5 EDI
Multi-disciplinary volcano monitoring and imaging with networks

Over the past few years, major technological advances significantly increased both the spatial coverage and frequency bandwidth of multi-disciplinary observations at active volcanoes. Networks of instruments, both ground- and satellite-based, now allow for the quantitative measurement of geophysical responses, geological features and geochemical emissions, permitting an unprecedented, multi-parameter vision of the surface manifestations of mass transport beneath volcanoes. Furthermore, new models and processing techniques have led to innovative paradigms for inverting observational data to image the structures and interpret the dynamics of volcanoes. In particular, machine learning, a type of AI in which computers learn from data, is gaining importance in volcanology, not only for monitoring purposes (i.e., in real-time) but also for later hazards analysis (e.g. modelling tools).

Within this context, this session aims to bring together a multidisciplinary audience to discuss the most recent innovations in volcano imaging and monitoring, and to present observations, methods and models that increase our understanding of volcanic processes.
We welcome contributions (1) related to methodological and instrumental advances in geophysical, geological and geochemical imaging of volcanoes, (2) to explore new knowledge provided by these studies on the internal structure and physical processes of volcanic systems, and (3) to investigate the potential of machine learning techniques to process multispectral satellite data for developing a better understanding of volcanic hazards.

We invite contributors from all geophysical, geological and geochemical disciplines: seismology, electromagnetics, geoelectrics, gravimetry, magnetics, muon tomography, volatile measurements and analysis. The session will include in-situ monitoring and high- resolution remote sensing studies that resolve volcanic systems ranging from near-surface hydrothermal activity to deep magma migration.

Co-organized by NH2/SM6
Convener: Jurgen Neuberg | Co-conveners: Catherine Hayer, Thomas R. Walter, Luca De Siena, Claudia CorradinoECSECS
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 10:20–11:30 (CEST), 13:20–16:20 (CEST)
 
Room -2.47/48
SM6.4 EDI
Challenges in seismology to understanding volcanic islands and magmatic unrest

Volcanic islands are simultaneously some of the tallest and fastest-forming geological features on Earth and constitute the site of significant geohazards ranging from volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. Ocean island volcanoes are also some of the most enigmatic features in our planet, as their genesis is still not satisfactorily explained by conventional plate tectonics. The scientific community faces several challenges in studying volcanic islands, particularly in what regards processes taking place at depth. There is still a need to densify seismic networks in volcanic islands, using both land- and seafloor-based stations, to record the signals associated with volcanic and tectonic processes and automatically or manually detect and classify those signals. 3D images from the shallow crust to the deep mantle are crucial to unravel the geodynamic processes behind the generation of volcanism. More accurate quantification of temporal changes in the volcanic systems will help in the forecasting of potential eruptions and the monitoring of existing ones. On top of that, the presence of geothermal systems and induced seismicity from industrial exploration are also critical challenges in volcanic islands due to the system's complexity.
Considering the enormous diversity of interactions in volcanic islands, we welcome contributions from a wide range of studies including: seismo-volcanic monitoring and tracking of magma movements; characterization and location of volcanic tremor; 3D and 4D seismic imaging, including attenuation tomography; seismic ambient noise monitoring; machine learning to detect and classify volcanic earthquakes; active source studies to characterize volcanic flanks and landslides; induced and triggered seismicity in geothermal systems; and seismic sources.

Co-organized by GMPV10/NH2
Convener: João FontielaECSECS | Co-conveners: Graça Silveira, Karin Sigloch, Ricardo Ramalho, Adriano Pimentel
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–09:45 (CEST)
 
Room D3
GMPV9.2
The 2021 eruption of Cumbre Vieja volcano (Canary Islands)

This session is devoted to the most recent eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, which started on Sept. 19, 2021, on the island of La Palma after 50 years of repose. Volcanic unrest was recorded in Oct. 2017, when a seismic swarm was located at more than 20 km depths. Nine additional swarms followed, the last one was recorded in June 2021. Geochemical anomalies followed this increased seismicity indicating a magmatic recharge at depth. On Sept. 11, 2021, a new seismic swarm was observed at shallower depths (10-12 km), indicating a possible magmatic intrusion. This was confirmed when geodetic monitoring networks on the island started showing clear signs of inflation. The seismicity increased in frequency and intensity with many felt earthquakes. Seismic activity accelerated in the morning of Sept. 19 when a strong shallow earthquake was widely felt on the western part of the island. This was the precursor of the eruption, which started at about 14:10 UTC on the same day. A series of vents opened along a fissure close to Los Llanos on the western flank of Cumbre Vieja volcano. The eruption displayed vigorous lava fountaining and powerful Strombolian explosions while lava effusion produced a compound Aa flow field. The eruption has destroyed hundreds of buildings, plantations as well as cutting vital transport routes.
This session is open to contributions aimed at geological, geophysical, geochemical and volcanological studies of the eruption and its precursors and, more in general, to studies that can help better understanding the eruptive dynamics. We also welcome contributions focused on the management of scientific communication during this crisis and the management of the volcanic emergency.

Co-organized by GI5/NH2
Convener: Luca D'Auria | Co-conveners: Carmen López Moreno, Carmen Solana
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST), 15:10–16:10 (CEST)
 
Room D2
SSP3.1 EDI
Volcano-sedimentary processes in broader geological environments

Volcanoes are inherently complex and dynamic geological system, acting as the source of diverse sediment types and as a control on varied sediment transport processes within surrounding environments, both during and after their life. This can manifest as an accumulation of thick primary volcaniclastic sequences from pyroclastic (e.g. pyroclastic density currents, tephra falls), laharic and flank instability processes, secondary volcaniclastic sequences from the reworking/redeposition (or both) of primary deposits and their interaction with non-volcanic sedimentary processes, or deposits from the weathering of lava flows. The diversity of processes that may be involved in the generation of volcaniclastic sequences makes often difficult to describe and interpret them. As the comprehension of the generation, transportation and accumulation mechanisms of volcaniclastic sequences is of extreme importance for natural hazard and economic perspectives, to reduce uncertainties and move forward in the identification of volcano-sedimentary processes and potential effects, modern and ancient volcaniclastic sequences must be studied and interpreted hand in hand. Thus, the proposed session aims to bring together studies that explore the volcaniclastic record of modern and ancient environments. Contributions are welcomed in areas including, but not limited to, the identification of volcanic features in ancient sedimentary records, multidisciplinary (e.g., stratigraphic, petrographic, geophysical) approaches to the study of modern subaerial and submarine volcaniclastic sequences as analogue sites, and examples of the modification of sedimentary systems across syn- and inter-eruptive periods.

Co-organized by GMPV9/NH2
Convener: Andrea Di CapuaECSECS | Co-conveners: Ulrich Kueppers, Elodie Lebas, Rebecca Williams
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–09:47 (CEST)
 
Room -2.32/33

NH3 – Landslide Hazards

Programme group scientific officer: Michel Jaboyedoff

NH3.1 EDI
Debris flows: advances on mechanics, controlling factors, monitoring, modelling and risk management

Debris flows are among the most dangerous natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructures in both mountainous and volcanic areas. The study of the initiation and dynamics of debris flows, along with the characterization of the associated erosion/deposition processes, is of paramount importance for hazard assessment, land-use planning and design of mitigation measures, including early warning systems. In addition, the impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity must be considered and carefully analysed, as the number of mountain areas prone to these events may increase in future.
A growing number of scientists with diverse backgrounds are studying debris flows and lahars. The difficulties in measuring parameters related to their initiation and propagation have progressively prompted research into a wide variety of laboratory experiments and monitoring studies. However, there is a need of improving the quality of instrumental observations that would provide knowledge for more accurate hazards maps and modeling. Nowadays, the combination of distributed sensor networks and remote sensing techniques represents a unique opportunity to gather direct observations of debris flows to better constrain their physical properties.
Scientists working in the field of debris flows are invited to present their recent advancements. In addition, contributions from practitioners and decision makers are also welcome. Topics of the session include: field studies and documentation, mechanics of debris-flow initiation and propagation, laboratory experiments, modeling, monitoring, impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity, hazard and risk assessment and mapping, early warning, and alarm systems.

Co-organized by GM3/HS13
Convener: Marcel Hürlimann | Co-conveners: Velio Coviello, Xiaojun GuoECSECS, Roland Kaitna, Sara SaviECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room M2
NH3.4
Impact of climate change on landslides and soil erosion: the role of precipitation, temperature, and land use

Global warming is unequivocal: the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events increased since the mid-20th century in all regions in which observational data were sufficient for trend analysis. And heavy precipitations and related effects are projected to intensify and be more frequent in most regions.
In this framework, particular attention should be paid to all the ground events triggered by rainfall, among which landslides and soil erosion.
Changes in temperature also have been shown to affect the hydraulic and mechanical behavior of soils and rocks in multiple ways, suggesting the importance of monitoring and modelling thermal variables alongside the hydraulic ones.
The influence of climate variables on the triggering, frequency, and severity of slope failures and soil erosion can be different according to the area, the time horizon of interest, and the specific trends of weather variables. Similarly, land use/cover change can play a pivotal role in exacerbating or reducing such hazards.
Thus, the overall impacts depend on the region, spatial scale, time frame, and socio-economic context addressed. However, even the simple identification of the weather patterns regulating the occurrence of such phenomena represents a not trivial issue, also assuming steady conditions, due to the crucial role played by geomorphological details. To support hazards’ monitoring, predictions, and projections, last-generation and updated datasets with high spatio-temporal resolution and quality - as those from the Copernicus Services’ Portals - are useful to feed models, big-data analytics, and indicators’ frameworks enabling timely, robust, and efficient decision making.
The Session aims at presenting studies concerning ongoing to future analysis on the impact of climate change on landslide triggering and dynamics, and soil erosion hazard, across different geographical contexts and scales. Either investigations including analyses of historical records and related climate variables, or modeling approaches driven by future climate exploiting downscaled output of climate projections are welcome. Studies assessing variations in severity, frequency, and/or timing of events and consequent risks are valuable.
Moreover, a focus on all aspects of landslide thermo-hydro-mechanics, from experimental studies to field and remote-sensing monitoring, from microstructural analyses to geomechanical modelling at various spatial and temporal scales, is proposed.

Co-organized by CL3.2/SSS2
Convener: Stefano Luigi GarianoECSECS | Co-conveners: Guido Rianna, Monia Santini, Alfredo RederECSECS, Séverine Bernardie, Gianvito ScaringiECSECS, Luigi LombardoECSECS, Carolina Segui
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 08:30–11:46 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
NH3.5 EDI
Rockfalls, rockslides and rock avalanches

Rockfalls, rockslides and rock avalanches are among the primary hazards and drivers of landscape evolution in steep terrain. The physics of rock slope degradation and dynamics of failure and transport mechanisms define the hazards and possible mitigation strategies and enable retrodictions and predictions of events and controls.

This session aims to bring together state-of-the-art methods for predicting, assessing, quantifying, and protecting against rock slope hazards across spatial and temporal scales. We seek innovative contributions from investigators dealing with all stages of rock slope hazards, from weathering and/or damage accumulation, through detachment, transport and deposition, and finally to the development of protection and mitigation measures. In particular, we seek studies presenting new theoretical, numerical or probabilistic modelling approaches, novel data sets derived from laboratory, in situ, or remote sensing applications, and state-of-the-art approaches to social, structural, or natural protection measures. We especially encourage contributions from geomechanics/rock physics, geodynamics, geomorphology and tectonics to better understand how rockfall, rockslides and rock avalanches act across scales.

Co-organized by EMRP1/GI5/GM3
Convener: Michael Krautblatter | Co-conveners: Anne VoigtländerECSECS, John Clague, Benjamin Campforts, Axel Volkwein
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–14:50 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
NH3.6 EDI
Space and time forecasting of landslides

Landslides are ubiquitous geomorphological phenomena with potentially catastrophic consequences. In several countries, landslide mortality can be higher than that of any other natural hazard. Predicting landslides is a difficult task that is of both scientific interest and societal relevance that may help save lives and protect individual properties and collective resources. The session focuses on innovative methods and techniques to predict landslide occurrence, including the location, time, size, destructiveness of individual and multiple slope failures. All landslide types are considered, from fast rockfalls to rapid debris flows, from slow slides to very rapid rock avalanches. All geographical scales are considered, from the local to the global scale. Of interest are contributions investigating theoretical aspects of natural hazard prediction, with emphasis on landslide forecasting, including conceptual, mathematical, physical, statistical, numerical and computational problems, and applied contributions demonstrating, with examples, the possibility or the lack of a possibility to predict individual or multiple landslides, or specific landslide characteristics. Of particular interest are contributions aimed at: the evaluation of the quality of landslide forecasts; the comparison of the performance of different forecasting models; the use of landslide forecasts in operational systems; and investigations of the potential for the exploitation of new or emerging technologies e.g., monitoring, computational, Earth observation technologies, in order to improve our ability to predict landslides. We anticipate that the most relevant contributions will be collected in the special issue of an international journal.

Co-organized by GM3
Convener: Filippo Catani | Co-conveners: Xuanmei Fan, Fausto Guzzetti, Binod Tiwari, Kushanav BhuyanECSECS, Sansar Raj MeenaECSECS, Lorenzo NavaECSECS, Maria Cuevas
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST), 13:20–16:38 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
NH3.7 EDI
Towards reliable Landslide Early Warning Systems

Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to landslides, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. Landslide early warning systems (LEWS) are non-structural risk mitigation measures applicable at different scales of analysis: slope and regional.

Independently by the scale of analysis, the structure of LEWS can be schematized as an interrelation of four main modules: setting, modelling, warning, response. However, the definition of the elements of these modules and the aims of the warnings/alerts issued considerably vary as a function of the scale at which the system is employed.

The session focuses on landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) at both regional and local scales. The session wishes to highlight operational approaches, original achievements and developments useful to operate reliable (efficient and effective) local and territorial LEWS. Moreover, the different schemes describing the structure of a LEWS available in literature clearly highlight the importance of both social and technical aspects in the design and management of such systems.

For the above-mentioned reasons, contributions addressing the following topics are welcome:
• rainfall thresholds definition for warning purposes;
• monitoring systems for early warning purposes;
• warning models for warning levels issuing;
• performance analysis of landslide warning models;
• communication strategies;
• emergency phase management;

Co-organized by GI5
Convener: Luca Piciullo | Co-conveners: Dalia Kirschbaum, Stefano Luigi GarianoECSECS, Neelima Satyam, Samuele Segoni
Presentations
| Wed, 25 May, 13:20–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room M2
NH3.8 EDI
Landslide monitoring: recent technologies and new perspectives

The global increase in damaging landslide events has attracted the attention of governments, practitioners, and scientists to develop functional, reliable and (when possible) low cost monitoring strategies. Numerous case studies have demonstrated how a well-planned monitoring system of landslides is of fundamental importance for long and short-term risk reduction.

Today, the temporal evolution of a landslide is addressed in several ways, encompassing classical and more complex in situ measurements or remotely sensed data acquired from satellite and aerial platforms. All these techniques are adopted for the same final scope: measure landslide motion over time, trying to forecast future evolution or minimally reconstruct its recent past. Real time, near-real time and deferred time strategies can be profitably used for landslide monitoring, depending on the type of phenomenon, the selected monitoring tool, and the acceptable level of risk.

This session follows the general objectives of the International Consortium on Landslides, namely: (i) promote landslide research for the benefit of society, (ii) integrate geosciences and technology within the cultural and social contexts to evaluate landslide risk, and (iii) combine and coordinate international expertise.

Considering these key conceptual drivers, this session aims to present successful monitoring experiences worldwide based on both in situ and/or remotely sensed data. The integration and synergic use of different techniques is welcomed, as well as newly developed tools or data analysis approaches, including big data management strategies. Specifically, a thematic focus will be on applications combining satellite, aerial or ground remote sensing with geophysical data such as electrical, seismic or electromagnetic surveys. The session is expected also to present case studies in which multi-temporal and multi-platform monitoring data are exploited for risk management and Civil Protection aims with positive effects in both social and economic terms.

Co-organized by GM3
Convener: Lorenzo SolariECSECS | Co-conveners: Veronica Pazzi, Peter Bobrowsky, Mateja Jemec Auflič, Francesca Cigna, Veronica Tofani, Federico Raspini, Hans-Balder Havenith
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 13:20–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
EMRP1.14 EDI
Multiscale rock damage in geology, geophysics and geo-engineering systems

Rock deformation at different stress levels in the brittle regime and across the brittle-ductile transition is controlled by damage processes occurring on different spatial scales, from grain scale to fractured rock masse. These lead to a progressive increase of micro- and meso-crack intensity in the rock matrix and to the growth of inherited macro-fractures at rock mass scale. Coalescence of these fractures forms large-scale structures such as brittle fault zones and deep-seated rock slide shear zones. Diffuse or localized rock damage have a primary influence on rock properties (strength, elastic moduli, hydraulic and electric properties) and their evolution across multiple temporal scales spanning from geological times to highly dynamic phenomena as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. In subcritical stress conditions, damage accumulation results in brittle creep processes key to the long-term evolution of geophysical, geomorphological and geo-engineering systems.
Damage and progressive failure processes must be considered to understand the time-dependent hydro-mechanical behaviour of faults (e.g. stick-slip vs aseismic creep), volcanic systems and slopes (e.g. slow rock slope deformation vs catastrophic rock slides), as well as the response of rock masses to stress perturbations induced by artificial excavations (tunnels, mines) and static or dynamic loadings. At the same time, damage processes control the brittle behaviour of the upper crust and are strongly influenced by intrinsic rock properties (strength, fabric, porosity, anisotropy), geological structures and their inherited damage, as well as by the evolving pressure-temperature with increasing depth and by fluid pressure, transport properties and chemistry. However, many complex relationships between these factors and rock damage are yet to be understood.
In this session we will bring together researchers from different communities interested in a better understanding of rock damage processes and consequence. We welcome innovative contributions on experimental studies (both in the laboratory and in situ), continuum / micromechanical analytical and numerical modelling, and applications to fault zones, reservoirs, slope instability and landscape evolution, and engineering applications. Studies adopting novel approaches and combined methodologies are particularly welcome.

Co-organized by NH3
Convener: Federico Agliardi | Co-conveners: Carolina GiorgettiECSECS, David Amitrano, Marie Violay, Christian Zangerl
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 10:20–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room -2.31
GM4.1 EDI
Hillslope and fluvial processes and associated source-to-sink fluxes and sedimentary budgets under changing climate and anthropogenic impacts

Denudational hillslope and fluvial processes, associated source-to-sink fluxes and sedimentary budgets are controlled by a range of environmental drivers and anthropogenic activities, exacerbated by the consequences of climate change. A better understanding of the drivers, mechanisms and rates of contemporary denudational hillslope and fluvial processes as well as of the sediment and hydrological connectivity across a range of different spatio-temporal scales and climatic zones has significant societal implications for water quality, hydraulic infrastructures, aquatic ecosystems, public safety, and biogeochemical cycles.

The session aims to bring together interdisciplinary researchers working across field, experimental, numerical modelling, remote sensing, and dating approaches who are advancing methods and providing new insights into: (i) slope mass movements (e.g., landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows) and related hazard cascades in mountainous environments; (ii) water, sediment and solute source-to-sink processes in different climate zones (e.g., cold climate, temperate, arid and tropical regions) from small headwaters to large river systems at event, seasonal, and multi-decadal scales; and (iii) the anthropogenic impacts and societal implications of changing hillslope and fluvial processes and possible solutions for future sustainable management.

We encourage the participation of early-career researchers and PhD students working in the fields of geomorphology, hydrology, hazard, glaciers, permafrost, and aquatic ecosystems, as we aim to expand and integrate the network of researchers addressing this complex subject across scientific disciplines.

This session is organized by the International Association of Geomorphologists (IAG) Working Group on Denudation and Environmental Changes in Different Morphoclimatic Zones (DENUCHANGE).

Co-organized by HS13/NH3, co-sponsored by IAG
Convener: Achim A. Beylich | Co-conveners: Katja Laute, Dongfeng liECSECS, Ana Navas, Olimpiu Pop
Presentations
| Tue, 24 May, 08:30–11:44 (CEST), 13:20–14:02 (CEST)
 
Room G2

NH4 – Earthquake Hazards

Programme group scientific officer: Anastasia Nekrasova

NH4.1
Short-term Earthquakes Forecast (StEF) and multi-parametric time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH)

From the real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected the major contribution to the development of operational t-DASH systems suitable for supporting decision makers with continuously updated seismic hazard scenarios. A very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (seismological, chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose space-time dynamics and/or anomalous variability can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation of major earthquakes.
This session wants then to encourage studies devoted to demonstrate the added value of the introduction of specific, observations and/or data analysis methods within the t-DASH and StEF perspectives. Therefore, studies based on long-term data analyses, including different conditions of seismic activity, are particularly encouraged. Similarly welcome will be the presentation of infrastructures devoted to maintain and further develop our present observational capabilities of earthquake related phenomena also contributing in this way to build a global multi-parametric Earthquakes Observing System (EQuOS) to complement the existing GEOSS initiative.
To this aim this session is not addressed just to seismology and natural hazards scientists but also to geologist, atmospheric sciences and electromagnetism researchers, whose collaboration is particular important for fully understand mechanisms of earthquake preparation and their possible relation with other measurable quantities. For this reason, all contributions devoted to the description of genetic models of earthquake’s precursory phenomena are equally welcome.

Co-organized by EMRP1/ESSI1/GI5/SM3, co-sponsored by JpGU and EMSEV
Convener: Valerio Tramutoli | Co-conveners: Pier Francesco Biagi, Carolina Filizzola, Nicola Genzano, Iren Adelina Moldovan
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:47 (CEST), 13:20–14:05 (CEST)
 
Room M2
NH4.2 EDI
Physical and data-driven models for seismic risk assessments toward disaster reduction

Earthquake disaster mitigation involves different elements, ranging from analysis of hazards (e.g. physical description of ground shaking) to its impact on built and natural environment, from vulnerability and exposure to hazards to capacity building and resilience, from long-term preparedness to post-event response. The scientific base of this process involves various seismic hazard/risk models, developed at different time scales and by different methods, as well as the use of heterogeneous observations and multi-disciplinary information. Accordingly, we welcome contributions about different types of seismic hazards research and assessments, both methodological and practical, and their applications to disaster risk reduction in terms of physical and social vulnerability, capacity and resilience.
This session aims to tackle theoretical and implementation issues, as well as aspects of communication and science policy, which are all essential elements towards effective disasters mitigation, and include:
⇒ development of physical/statistical models for the different earthquake risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability), including novel methods for data collection and processing (e.g. statistical machine learning analysis)
⇒ earthquake hazard and risk estimation at different time and space scales, including their performance verification against observations (including unconventional seismological observations);
⇒ time-dependent seismic hazard and risk assessments (including contribution of aftershocks), and post-event information (early warning, alerts) for emergency management;
⇒ earthquake-induced cascading effects (e.g. landslides, tsunamis, etc) and multi-risk assessment (e.g. earthquake plus flooding).
The interdisciplinary session will provide an opportunity to share best practices and experience gained with different methods, providing opportunities to advance our understanding of disaster risk in "all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment", while simultaneously highlighting existing gaps and future research directions.

Co-organized by SM7
Convener: Antonella Peresan | Co-conveners: Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Katerina Orfanogiannaki, Katalin Gribovszki, Elisa Varini
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 14:05–16:40 (CEST)
 
Room M2
NH4.3 EDI
Pattern recognition and statistical models applied to earthquake occurrence

New models based on seismicity patterns, considering their physical meaning and their statistical significance, shed light on the preparation process of large earthquakes and on the evolution in time and space of clustered seismicity.
Opportunities for improved model testing are being opened by the increasing amount of earthquake data available on local to global scales, together with accurate assessments of the catalogues’ reliability in terms of location precision, magnitude of completeness and coherence in magnitude determination.
Moreover, it is possible to reliably integrate the models with additional information, like geodetic deformation, active fault data, source parameters of previously recorded seismicity, fluid contents, tomographic information, or laboratory and numerical experiments of rock fracture and friction. Such integration allows a detailed description of the system and hopefully an improved forecasting of the future distribution of seismicity in space, time and magnitude.
In this session, we invite researchers to submit their latest results and insights on the physical and statistical models and machine learning approaches for the space, time and magnitude evolution of earthquake sequences. Particular emphasis will be placed on:

• physical and statistical models of earthquake occurrence;
• analysis of earthquake clustering;
• spatial, temporal and magnitude properties of earthquake statistics;
• quantitative testing of earthquake occurrence models;
• reliability of earthquake catalogues;
• time-dependent hazard assessment;
• methods for earthquake forecasting;
• data analyses and requirements for model testing;
• pattern recognition in seismology;
• machine learning applied to seismic data; and
• methods for quantifying uncertainty in pattern recognition and machine learning.

Co-organized by SM8
Convener: Stefania Gentili | Co-conveners: Rita Di Giovambattista, Álvaro GonzálezECSECS, Filippos Vallianatos
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:49 (CEST), 13:20–14:05 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
NH4.4
Earthquake-induced hazards: ground motion amplification and ground failures

The main concern of the occurrence of an earthquake is the ground shaking, although past events worldwide demonstrated that damage and death toll depends on both the strong ground motion and the ground effects. The variability of earthquake ground motion is caused by local geological conditions beneath a given site, due to the stratigraphic or topographic setting that can give rise to amplification and resonances. Earthquake-induced ground effects are mainly landslides, soil liquefaction, and ground subsidence. They can affect an area with damages related to the full collapse or loss in functionality of facilities, roads, pipelines, and other lifelines. The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for discussion among researchers and other professionals who study seismic amplification of the ground motion and the related hazards and to encourage multidisciplinary research in these fields.
Topics of interest include the following:
- Subsoil investigation and characterization for Seismic Microzonation mapping;
- Evaluation of seismic site response (1D-2D-3D)
- Case histories of earthquake-triggered landslides analyzed at either local or regional scale
- Slope stability analyses and runout modeling of seismically/volcanically-induced landslides;
- Studies on Soil liquefaction and earthquake-induced subsidence

Convener: Giovanni Forte | Co-conveners: Hans-Balder Havenith, Paolo Frattini, Céline Bourdeau
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 14:05–16:28 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
SM8.1 EDI
Physics-based earthquake modeling and engineering

Numerical modeling of earthquakes provides new approaches to apprehend the physics of earthquake rupture and the seismic cycle, seismic wave propagation, fault zone evolution and seismic hazard assessment.
Recent advances in numerical algorithms and increasing computational power enable unforeseen precision and multi-physics components in physics-based earthquake simulation but also pose challenges in terms of fully exploiting modern supercomputing infrastructure, realistic parameterization of simulation ingredients and the analysis of large synthetic datasets while advances in laboratory experiments link earthquake source processes to rock mechanics.
This session aims to bring together modelers and data analysts interested in the physics and computational aspects of earthquake phenomena and earthquake engineering. We welcome studies focusing on all aspects of seismic hazard assessment and the physics of earthquakes - from slow slip events, fault mechanics and rupture dynamics, to wave propagation and ground motion analysis, to the seismic cycle and inter seismic deformation - and studies which further the state-of-the art in the related computational and numerical aspects.

Co-organized by NH4/TS3
Convener: Alice-Agnes GabrielECSECS | Co-conveners: Jean-Paul Ampuero, Hideo Aochi
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 14:05–14:50 (CEST), 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room D3
SM6.1 EDI
Earthquake swarms and complex seismic sequences driven by transient forcing in tectonic and volcanic regions

Earthquake swarms are characterized by a complex temporal evolution and a delayed occurrence of the largest magnitude event. In addition, seismicity often manifests with intense foreshock activity or develops in more complex sequences where doublets or triplets of large comparable magnitude earthquakes occur. The difference between earthquake swarms and these complex sequences is subtle and usually flagged as such only a posteriori. This complexity derives from aseismic transient forcing acting on top of the long-term tectonic loading: pressurization of crustal fluids, slow-slip and creeping events, and at volcanoes, magmatic processes (i.e. dike and sill intrusions or magma degassing). From an observational standpoint, these complex sequences in volcanic and tectonic regions share many similarities: seismicity rate fluctuations, earthquakes migration, and activation of large seismogenic volume despite the usual small seismic moment released. The underlying mechanisms are local increases of the pore-pressure, loading/stressing rate due to aseismic processes (creeping, slow slip events), magma-induced stress changes, earthquake-earthquake interaction via static stress transfer or a combination of those. Yet, the physics behind such processes and the ultimate reasons for the occurrence of swarm-like rather than mainshock-aftershocks sequences, is still far beyond a full understanding.

This session aims at putting together studies of swarms and complex seismic sequences driven by aseismic transients in order to enhance our insights on the physics of such processes. Contributions focusing on the characterization of these sequences in terms of spatial and temporal evolution, scaling properties, and insight on the triggering physical processes are welcome. Multidisciplinary studies using observation complementary to seismological data, such as fluid geochemistry, deformation, and geology are also welcome, as well as laboratory and numerical modeling simulating the mechanical condition yielding to swarm-like and complex seismic sequences.

Co-organized by NH4/TS4
Convener: Luigi Passarelli | Co-conveners: Simone Cesca, Federica LanzaECSECS, Francesco Maccaferri, Maria MesimeriECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 10:20–11:48 (CEST), 13:20–14:05 (CEST)
 
Room D3
TS4.2 EDI
Deformation, seismicity, and hazards of low-strain, slowly deforming regions

Regions of slow deformation and low strain, often located in continental interiors or intraplate settings, can present substantial, under-recognised seismic hazards. The styles, rates, and spatial patterns of strain distribution and seismicity in these areas are often dissimilar to plate-boundary regions, where most of our current understanding of deformation drivers was derived. Challenges in studying slowly deforming regions include: 1) poor surface exposure and/or preservation of Quaternary-active structures, 2) long earthquake recurrence intervals, and 3) complex fault geometries, mechanics, and deformation histories, often including reactivation of inherited structures.

Interdisciplinary studies combining a diverse range of geoscientific disciplines have helped us develop a better understanding of drivers of low strain deformation. In this session, we want to explore the roles, behaviours, and associated seismic hazards of short-to-long-term active deformation and key inherited tectonic structures in these regions. We seek studies from around the globe that illuminate our understanding of these complex zones using field-based analyses, geophysics, seismology, active tectonics, geomorphology, remote sensing, numerical and analogue modelling, sedimentology, and geochronology. We particularly encourage interdisciplinary presentations, thought-provoking studies that challenge conventional wisdoms, and submissions from early career researchers.

Public information:

The last four decades of earthquake science have relied on a combination of geophysical, remote sensing, and field techniques to shed light on earthquake hazard near active plate boundaries, where the majority of earthquakes occur. However, we still lack data and explanatory models for earthquake hazard in regions located far away from plate boundary settings. These slowly deforming regions pose a significant hazard to the livelihood and security of nearby communities.

Our session seeks to bring together geoscientists from across disciplinary backgrounds to discuss challenges and recent advances in understanding earthquake processes in these regions, with an eye towards improving hazard assessment in the 21st century.

Co-organized by NH4
Convener: Tamarah KingECSECS | Co-conveners: Veronica PrushECSECS, Jeremy RimandoECSECS, Zoe MildonECSECS, Alexander L. PeaceECSECS