The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (hereafter RAPID) array is an observing system designed to study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It is an international collaboration between the National Oceanography Centre, University of Miami, and NOAA. The primary goals of the RAPID array are to observe and understand changes in the AMOC over time, and improve our understanding of how changes in the ocean circulation system may influence regional and global climate patterns. The array consists of a network of moored instruments, which measure ocean temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and flow velocities.

The AMOC at 26◦N has now been continuously measured by the RAPID array over the period April 2004 to present (20 years of observing). This record provides unique insight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation, previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport from hydrographic ship sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled striking variability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely by wind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varying buoyancy-forced overturning circulation.

We will present the history of the RAPID observational array and its contribution to AMOC science.

How to cite: Moat, B., Smeed, D., Johns, W., Elipot, S., Rayner, D., Smith, R., Volkov, D., Kajtar, J., Petit, T., and Collins, J.: Twenty years of observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4707, 2024.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a vital role in the climate of Europe and the North Atlantic region by redistributing heat and freshwater in the Atlantic. Climate model studies project an AMOC decline under global warming in the 21st century. However, they disagree on the magnitude and timescales of the weakening. Thus, assessing model performance regarding the representation of the AMOC remains essential. Observational estimates can serve as important benchmarks to understand AMOC variability in ocean models. AMOC observations at different monitoring arrays in the North Atlantic have shown strong variability on multiple time scales and no long-term trend. We analyze the AMOC at the North Atlantic Changes (NOAC) array line at 47°N in the high-resolution forced VIKING20X model simulation from 1980 to 2021. The mean AMOC strength is within the range of the NOAC observations. However, the VIKING20X AMOC exhibits a decreasing trend from the mid-1990s until 2010. This decrease coincides with significant cooling and freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic in VIKING20X. In agreement with NOAC observations, VIKING20X shows meridional connectivity between the NOAC and RAPID AMOC when the NOAC AMOC leads by about one year, though less distinct. This agreement indicates a common mechanism, determining the meridional connectivity in observations and VIKING20X. These mechanisms must be understood and represented in climate models to make informed projections of the future AMOC and its role in the climate system. Furthermore, ocean models and gridded observational data sets could help complement new approaches to monitoring the AMOC at key locations using novel methods and instrumentation, such as drift-free bottom pressure sensors, which could help resolve the geostrophic reference level.

How to cite: Wett, S., Rhein, M., Biastoch, A., and Frajka-Williams, E.: AMOC representation in the North Atlantic in a forced ocean model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15728, 2024.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial mechanism of poleward heat transport in the ocean and climate system. It modulates the redistribution of heat and carbon in the northern hemisphere. The state of AMOC in recent decades has revealed a slowdown compared to the industrial era. Its state is linked to a number of physical factors, including sea level. Along the eastern seaboard of North America, on long timescales, the imprint of the AMOC is projected onto sea level patterns. The relationship between AMOC weakening and sea level is not clearly understood. This study investigates the state of the AMOC in recent decades and its link to the regional sea level using CMIP6 and RAPID datasets.

One of the most critical questions in ocean science is whether climate models and observations of the state of the AMOC in recent decades are consistent. If these datasets show significant differences, it could lead to a bias in our projected long-term climate knowledge. This study shows the potential of sea level data to inform the evolution of the AMOC to constrain and improve future projections.

How to cite: Eresanya, E., McCarthy, G., MecKing, J., Yinghui, H., and Osinowo, A.: AMOC weakening and its association with increased dynamic sea level in recent decades , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1253, 2024.

The AMOC is usually defined as the maximum of the overturning streamfunction.    The time series produced by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS observing array uses a streamfunction calculated in depth space.     Using data from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array along with additional data from the WBTS sections in the Florida Straits and other hydrographic data, we have made a time series of the overturning streamfunction calculated in density space.  The streamfunction in density space reveals the shallow overturning cell associated with subtropical mode waters (STMW) that is obscured in the depth-space streamfunction.    The time series of the data also reveal that inter-annual variability in the amount of STMW in the Florida Straits is linked to changes in meridional heat transport.

How to cite: Smeed, D. A., Johns, W. E., Smith, R. H., Rayner, D., Volkov, D. L., Elipot, S., Petit, T., Kajtar, J. B., McDonagh, E. L., and Moat, B.: The role of subtropical mode waters in the variability of meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6046, 2024.

The detection of trends and variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important and at times controversial topic. On average, CMIP6 models project a 1 Sv/decade decrease in the strength of the AMOC in response to anthropogenic climate change. Atlantic subpolar decadal sea surface temperature variations of 0.5º indicate an associated change in AMOC strength of 2 Sv. These are challenging thresholds of signal detection for AMOC observing.

Estimates of the AMOC streamfunction, such as those from the RAPID array, have a number of sources of variability ranging from short term Ekman transport to variations in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water associated with deep water formation that have a slower timescale. Climate model studies have shown that Ekman transport contributes little to the signal of future AMOC decline.

We look at the nearly 20 years of data from the RAPID array from a signal to noise perspective. Fluctuations associated with Ekman transport are the largest contribution to noise in the AMOC estimates and hold no signal of low frequency change. Deeper layers show more of the low frequency signal. We amplify this low frequency signal by removing the impact of noise derived from the Ekman transport on the deep temperature and salinity. Finally, we show that the best place for detection of low frequency, climatic changes in AMOC is in the deepest North Atlantic Deep Water, with the noise of the wind removed.

How to cite: McCarthy, G., Hug, G., Smeed, D., and Moat, B.: Detecting climatic change in AMOC observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15604, 2024.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), one of the most prominent climate tipping elements on Earth, can potentially collapse as a consequence of surface freshwater input in the North Atlantic. A collapse from its current strong northward overturning state would have major impacts for the global climate system. Although available reconstructions appear to indicate a gradual weakening of the AMOC over the last century, the proximity of the climate system to a potential future collapse of the AMOC remains unknown. Here, we use the results of the first AMOC tipping event modelled in a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), to identify regions and variables that play a key role in a forthcoming AMOC collapse and can therefore serve as early-warning signals (EWS). We analyse the statistical EWS properties using two steady state simulations with the same CESM version, the steady state simulations differ in the distance to the AMOC tipping point. These results will subsequently be used to assess the usefulness of observations from the SAMBA, RAPID and OSNAP arrays to determine whether the present-day AMOC is approaching a tipping point.

How to cite: Smolders, E., van Westen, R., and Dijkstra, H.: Early warning signals of AMOC collapse from North Atlantic array observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6116, 2024.

The Gulf Stream is a vital limb of the North Atlantic circulation that influences regional climate, sea level, and hurricane activity. Given the Gulf Stream's relevance to weather and climate, many studies have attempted to estimate trends in its volumetric transport from various datasets, but results have been inconclusive, and no consensus has emerged whether it is weakening with climate change. Here we use Bayesian analysis to jointly assimilate multiple observational datasets from the Florida Straits to quantify uncertainty and change in Gulf Stream volume transport since 1982. We find with virtual certainty (probability P>99%) that Gulf Stream volume transport through the Florida Straits declined by 1.2 ± 1.0 Sv in the past 40 years (95% credible interval). This significant trend has emerged from the dataset only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean circulation.

How to cite: Piecuch, C. and Beal, L.: Robust weakening of the Gulf Stream during the past four decades observed in the Florida Straits, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4666, 2024.

The Florida Current (FC) provides the majority of the northward volume and heat transports for both the meridional overturning and the horizontal gyre circulations in the subtropical North Atlantic. A unique, sustained observing system in the Florida Straits at about 27°N, consisting of voltage measurements recorded from a submarine telecommunication cable installed between Florida and Grand Bahama Island, paired with regular calibration and validation cruises, was established in 1982. Since then, the recorded cable voltage time series has enabled over 40 years of quasi-continuous, daily estimates of the FC volume transport. The cable data constitutes the longest observational record of any boundary current and a key component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in existence. By this measure, it can be representative of the AMOC weakening, suggested by climate models and proxy-based reconstructions.

Here, we reassess the record-long change in the FC strength by revising the processing of voltages measured on the submarine cable. With the increased length of the cable record, we show that it has become necessary to account for the secular change in the Earth’s geomagnetic field, especially when studying processes on decadal and longer time scales. We calculate the corrected estimates of the FC volume transport and show that (i) the FC strength has not declined as reported recently, but has remained remarkably stable since 1982, and (ii) with the corrected FC record, the AMOC at ~26.5°N exhibits a decadal-scale variability rather than a long-term decline.

The results of this study indicate that, if climate models are correct that the AMOC is slowing or will soon slow down, this slowdown has not yet been reflected in the FC, or the observational record is still too short to detect it with confidence. The existing records are just starting to resolve decadal-scale signals relevant to climate variability. Continued observations are thus necessary for detection and mechanistic understanding of climate-related changes and for validating and improving ocean and climate models.

How to cite: Volkov, D., Smith, R., Garcia, R., Baringer, M., Johns, W., Moat, B., and Smeed, D.: Florida Current: four decades of steady state at 27°N, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3216, 2024.

The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has been tied to deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic. The depth of convection in winter, and the density of its product, depends on the balance between the water column stratification at the end of summer and the buoyancy removed through cooling in winter. As climate change progresses, ocean stratification is expected to increase as a result of warming and increasing fluxes of freshwater from the Arctic and Greenland, which in turn may weaken convection. Recently, a large freshwater anomaly has been seen to go round the Subpolar Gyre and has been speculated to increase stratification to the point where it inhibited convection in the Irminger Sea in 2019. However, less is known about near surface salinity in other years.

Both the extent of the upper ocean summer fresh layer and the winter mixed layers are investigated using Argo profiles and gridded salinity products. Particularly the westernmost basins of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre are characterized by a strong seasonal cycle in near surface salinity. Fresh layers of around 50 m depth form over spring and summer and are diluted through mixing with deeper, more saline waters in winter. Larger fresh anomalies are seen in recent years, but Argo profiles show that this upper ocean freshwater can still be mixed over the water column if winter cooling is strong enough. This diminishes the fresh signal in amplitude, while spreading it over a much thicker layer. In the Labrador Sea and south of Greenland this can be seen in mixed layers over 1000 m deep, but even in the Irminger Sea fresh mixed layers down to 800 m were recorded in the winter of 2021-2022. Concomitantly, the western Subpolar Gyre has exhibited a freshening of the upper to intermediate water column that may partly be related to this spreading of freshwater over the water column. Documenting the strength and variability of the near surface summer fresh layer, and the extent to which it can be incorporated into winter mixed layers or not, will help project how deep convection may transition to a less frequent or weaker state in the future.

How to cite: de Jong, F. and Fried, N.: Summer fresh layers and winter mixed layers in the western Subpolar Gyre, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3406, 2024.

Meltwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic from the Greenland ice sheet has been steadily increasing in the past decades due to global warming. To identify the impacts of this enhanced freshwater input since the late 1990s, we use output from the eddy-rich model VIKING20X (1/20˚) running two nearly identical simulations from 1997–2021 only differing in the freshwater input from Greenland: one with realistic interannually varying runoff increasing in the early 2000s and the other continued after 1997 using the local, grid-cell climatology of 1961–2000 maintaining the mean seasonal runoff cycle. Here, runoff is based on the JRA55-do reanalysis (Tsujino et al., 2018, Ocn.Mod.), which includes the Bamber et al. (2018, JGR-O) Greenland runoff and calving record, where liquid and solid discharge is combined into a single liquid flux entering the ocean through the surface and coast. Apart from this, atmospheric forcing is identical between the two runs. To our knowledge this is the first set of twin experiments with a most realistic, well validated, eddy-rich ocean model to assess the impact of the current, observed increase in Greenland ice sheet mass loss. 

We find that the majority of the additional freshwater remains within the boundary current. This enhances the density gradient between the fresh and cool slope current and the warm and salty waters of the interior Labrador Sea and leads to a small (.01 m/s) but significant increase in boundary current speed in our experiment. Both, the faster slope current and the enhanced shelf–interior density gradient increase the potential for intensified eddy shedding into the interior Labrador Sea. This more dynamic regime fosters the eddy-driven import of fresh boundary current waters (Polar Water and meltwater) into the nearby deep convection regions. Lastly, our experiments indicate a role of enhanced Greenland runoff in the eastward shift of deep convection reported by Rühs et al. (2021, JGR-O) for the recent period 2015–2018. The experiment with realistically increased runoff exhibits meltwater tracer mixed only to shallower depths before transferred east into the Irminger Sea leading to a weaker stratification in the upper to mid-depth Irminger Sea than in the experiment with less, climatological runoff, which would enable or at least support deep convection southeast of Greenland.

How to cite: Schiller-Weiss, I., Martin, T., and Schwarzkopf, F.: Emerging impacts of enhanced Greenland melting on Labrador Sea dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9943, 2024.

Increasing freshwater input from Greenland and the Arctic could potentially affect the stratification of the water column in the Labrador Sea, and weaken deep convection. While freshwater export from the West Greenland shelf to the interior Labrador Sea is well-documented, little to no exchange is believed to take place off the Labrador Shelf.
In this study, we use drifters deployed on the Greenland and Labrador shelves since 2019 to deepen our understanding of the Labrador shelf surface circulation and cross-shelf exchanges. Trajectories confirm that fresh surface waters from Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, and the West Greenland Current join to form the Labrador Current with two distinct velocity cores: one at the shelf break and a second inshore coastal core. The recent drifter observations provide further detail about the shelf circulation including topographically-steered exchanges between the main core and the coastal core of the Labrador Current, and confirm the absence of direct connection between Baffin and Hudson Bays, and the interior Labrador Sea. Instead, substantial export takes place between Flemish Cap and the tail of the Grand Banks, with the export location dependent on upstream circulation.
Freshwater originating from the Baffin and Hudson Bays, and the west Greenland ice sheet, is unlikely to directly impact the Labrador Sea deep convection region. Their mixing and diluting along this longer pathway complicate their potential influence on deep convection in the Subpolar North Atlantic.

How to cite: Duyck, E. and Frajka-Williams, E.: Circulation of freshwater over the Labrador shelf and into the interior subpolar North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17710, 2024.

The decadal variability in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat content is significantly influenced by the atmosphere. The impact of seasonal-annual atmospheric perturbations lasts for many years in the oceans due to the ocean's long memory. The anomalous air-sea heat fluxes and winds associated with atmospheric perturbations first rapidly modify upper ocean temperatures, initiating a short-term or local ocean response. Subsequently, these modifications can alter meridional heat transport rates, leading to anomalous heat convergence persisting for several years—a long-term or far-field ocean response—in the subpolar ocean (Khatri et al., 2022, Geophys Res Lett).

We propose a novel technique that incorporates these two ocean responses to evaluate ocean memory and examine its role in driving decadal ocean variability. Here, we combine heat budget analysis with linear response theory to examine how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which captures about 40% of atmospheric variability, controls the decadal variability in upper ocean temperatures and quantify the associated ocean memory. Utilising CMIP6 climate model outputs and observations, our estimations suggest ocean memory for the subpolar North Atlantic to be between 10 to 20 years. Furthermore, we find that the NAO strongly influences long-term ocean variability, explaining 30% to 40% of subpolar ocean heat content variability on decadal timescales. Specifically, the impact of seasonal atmospheric events on the ocean persists for more than a decade through a combination of local and far-field ocean responses. The proposed ocean memory-based framework, integrating local and far-field ocean effects into a single metric, can be utilised to analyse how relatively short-timescale atmospheric variability drives changes in the ocean state over decadal timescales.

How to cite: Khatri, H., Williams, R., Woollings, T., and Smith, D.: Role of Ocean Memory in Subpolar North Atlantic Decadal Variability, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5412, 2024.

Two aspects of Subpolar North Atlantic variability are explored using observations and model analysis. The first aspect is the autumn-winter seasonal reduction of sea surface temperature (SST). In a climate change simulation with the HadGEM3-GC3.1-HM model, a strong increase in the magnitude of the seasonal temperature reduction (STR) is found in sea-ice affected regions and the subpolar gyre. Similar results are obtained from an observational analysis using the HadISST dataset. In both cases, the STR has increased in magnitude by up to 0.3 ºC per decade over 1951-2020. The primary driver for the increased STR is a greater sensitivity of SST to heat loss due to increased surface stratification brought about predominantly by warming of the northern ocean regions. The increase in STR, leads to a greater winter meridional SST gradient, with potential consequences for increasing winter storminess. The second aspect is an investigation of the atmospheric impacts of surface salinity anomalies through modification of mixed layer properties and the surface heat exchange. For this analysis, the seasonal evolution of two 20-member ensembles of HadGEM3-GC3.1-HM have been undertaken with and without an imposed initial winter salinity anomaly in the western Subpolar North Atlantic that is similar in magnitude to the Great Salinity Anomaly. The evolution of the perturbed model runs will be examined with a focus on the consequences for European spring-summer climate conditions.

How to cite: Josey, S., Grist, J., and Sinha, B.: Drivers and Impacts of Changing Subpolar North Atlantic Surface Temperature and Salinity, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8598, 2024.

The Greenland Tip Jet is a strong westerly wind generated by the interaction between the synoptic Icelandic Low and the steep Greenland orography. Tip Jets were not extensively explored until the beginning of 2000s when gridded atmospheric products reached temporal and spatial resolution high enough to resolve such mesoscale wind events. This mesoscale wind affects surface heat and freshwater content in the area to the southeast of Greenland and then it causes intensification of deep water formation in the Irminger Sea. Through this increase in deep convection intensity, Tip Jets can potentially affect the large scale Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transport on daily-centennial time scales. Given Tip Jets’ role in deep convection, the research question arises: Will the influence of Tip Jets on AMOC change in the future? In the current research, we aim to fill the gap on the Tip Jet variability in the 21^st century using the high resolution (0.25°) CESM 1.3 future climate simulation forced with RCP 8.5 for 2015-2099. We identify Tip Jets, estimate future composite anomalies of the surface heat flux and wind stress associated with Tip Jet events, and define the leading factors of their variability in the 21^st century. Our analysis reveals no significant trends in Tip Jet frequency or wind stress for 2015-2099. Although no long-term changes are modelled in Tip Jets and wind stress, upward surface heat flux decreases both during Tip Jet days and during the whole winter season (DJFM) in the area to the southeast of Greenland. We attribute this decrease in surface cooling to changes in air-sea temperature difference (Ta – SST). To the east of Cape Farewell, the atmosphere is warming faster than water, causing Ta – SST to shrink during the 21^st century. The observed trend in Ta – SST subsequently appears in surface latent and sensible heat fluxes growth for 2015-2099. Therefore, the more rapid warming of the atmosphere compared to the ocean leads to an increase in background latent and sensible heat, resulting in less cold being transported to the central Irminger Sea during Tip Jets. We showed that Tip Jets will likely continue to affect heat and freshwater content in the Irminger sea, however, the character of this influence will be different with climate change during the 21^st century. 

How to cite: Fedorov, A. M., Wieners, C. E., de Jong, M. F., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Greenland Tip Jet in the future: Declining Surface Heat Loss in a High-Resolution CESM Simulation (2015-2099), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16264, 2024.

The spreading pathway of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), which is the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), determines how climate change signals are transported throughout the global ocean. NADW is suggested to be transported from the subpolar Atlantic to the subtropics in the western basin by the deep western boundary current and the eddy-driven interior pathway west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). However, much less attention has been paid to AMOC cross-gyre transport in the eastern basin. Here, combining hydrographic observations and reanalysis, we identify a robust mid-depth Eastern Pathway located east of the MAR, which is further corroborated by model simulations with various resolutions, including eddy-resolving simulations. The Eastern Pathway accounts for half of the NADW transport across the intergyre boundary. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the mid-depth Eastern Pathway is formed by basin-scale ocean circulation dynamics due to wind steering on the intergyre communicating window instead of bottom topography. Our results provide a new paradigm for the AMOC pathway and call for further investigations on the climate response and variabilities associated with different AMOC pathways.

How to cite: Gu, S., Liu, Z., Zou, S., Zhang, S., Yu, Y., and He, C.: Wind Steering of Mid-latitude Eastern Pathway of AMOC, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3813, 2024.

The subpolar North Atlantic assumes a key role in ventilating the ocean’s interior as it is a primary site for deep water formation. Dissolved oxygen concentrations exhibit high sensitivity to climate variability and changes due to the interplay between sea-surface temperature fluctuations and ocean stratification. This relationship not only affects the solubility of dissolved oxygen but also modulates its transport from the near-surface ocean to the interior, known as ventilation. We collected sixty years of observations, spanning from 1960 to 2022, from three different datasets: GLODAPV2, WOD18 and BGC-Argo. These data underwent rigorous secondary quality control process, which adjusted biases between GLODAPV2 and WOD18, as well as BGC-Argo to minimize systematic errors. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the long-term changes and interannual variability in dissolved oxygen, apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), oxygen utilization rate (OUR) and water mass ages within the upper 2000 meters of the water column. Our specific focus encompassed the Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), Intermediate Water (IW) and Labrador Sea Water (LSW). The computation of OUR and water mass ages in particular relied on tracer data such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) to estimate ventilation ages via the Transit Time Distribution (TTD) method. OUR provides insights into local oxygen consumption due to remineralization of organic matter, while the total AOU is the integrated OUR along the pathway of the water parcel. Therefore, identifying these parameters enables to distinguish between the primary drivers behind oxygen variations in the subpolar North Atlantic, namely air-sea gas exchanges, ocean circulation, and marine biology.

How to cite: Stendardo, I. and Steinfeldt, R.: Ventilation changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic: Insights from Six Decades of Oxygen Observations and Tracer-Based Age Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16353, 2024.

The Nordic Seas, where cold and fresh Arctic waters mix with warmer and saltier North Atlantic waters, play a crucial role in the ocean circulation system. This region is also the place of intense water mass transformations, with a conversion of lighter waters into denser waters that contribute to the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In recent years, the region has experienced Atlantification, characterized by an increased contribution of Atlantic waters, leading to a warming in the upper layers. This study aims to investigate the impact of Atlantification on the properties of water masses in the Nordic Seas. We have used ISAS, an optimal interpolation from ARGO data with a monthly time series spanning 2002 to 2020, the ANDRO dataset for computing geostrophic velocities from ARGO float drift, and the ERA5 dataset for air-sea flux exchanges. The Nordic Seas are divided into four basins: the Greenland Sea (GS), the Icelandic Plateau (IP) in the west, and the Lofoten Basin and Norwegian Basin in the east. The water column is divided into three water masses based on potential density (𝞼₀): surface (𝞼₀ < 27.8 kg m^-3), intermediate (27.8 < 𝞼₀ < 28.0 kg m^-3), and deeper water mass (28.0 < 𝞼₀ < 28.07 kg m^-3). Based on the observational datasets, we estimate the variations of the volume of each water mass, the transport within and outside the basins, and the surface-forced Water Mass Transformation (WMT). The eastern basins are experiencing surface warming, particularly after 2013, accompanied by an increase in the volume of the same water mass. Moreover, the volume of intermediate water masses is decreasing. In the Norwegian Basin, surface-forced transformations dominate the volume changes, while the Lofoten Basin experiences a significant influence from both surface-forced transformation and the import of warm waters from the south. In the western basins, both the intermediate and deeper water masses are increasing in volume encompassing a larger depth range , with a smaller trend in the Icelandic Plateau. In the Greenland Sea, the WMT are dominating these changes and the region is mostly exporting denser waters. In contrast, in the Icelandic Plateau the intermediate water is mostly explained by differences in the transports, and the deeper water masses by the surface transformation. We conclude that the changes observed in the Nordic Seas water masses result from a combination of local changes driven by air-sea fluxes and the advection of warmer waters. Monitoring the relative contributions of remote and local processes involved in WMT will help us to better understand and anticipate the ongoing and future shifts in the Nordic Seas conditions. 

How to cite: Almeida, L., Kolodziejczyk, N., and Lique, C.: Observing the volume and property changes of the Water Masses in the Nordic Seas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9171, 2024.

In this presentation, we discuss the role of a variety of parameterizations for simulating ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and how they contribute to biases and model uncertainties. Their effect is analyzed via a range of diagnostics and model setups.

Many of the crucial processes in the ocean still need to be parameterized in state-of-the-art global ocean and climate models. Among those processes are mesoscale ocean eddies and mixed layer dynamics which cannot be fully resolved in most multidecadal simulations. However, they play a crucial role in setting the dynamic and hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic and the global oceans. Increasing resolution tends to improve some of the long-standing ocean biases, but is very costly and makes it difficult to disentangle which specific processes or boundary conditions are driving certain improvements.

A consequence of imperfect process parameterizations are systematic errors resulting in large model biases. Furthermore, they can lead to inaccurate representation of the chaotic evolution of the ocean system, leading to insufficient representations of forecast uncertainties via ensemble simulations. In the North Atlantic, both of these consequences play a large role, leading to strong model biases and a general underdispersion of ensemble forecasts.

Classical biases of ocean models at so called eddy-permitting resolution, where mesoscale eddies are barely resolved, are related to overdissipation of kinetic energy and enhanced diffusion of tracers. We introduce a set of parameterizations that tackle the overdissipation of kinetic energy via specific viscosity schemes, including schemes that reinject some of the overdissipated energy back into the system. A combination of such schemes reduces classical ocean biases such as the North Atlantic cold bias by enhancing eddy activity and improving the path of mean currents such as the Gulf Stream. In addition, we demonstrate how stochastic methods can be used to account for parameterization uncertainties in the North Atlantic, quantifying the role of parameterization errors in ocean and climate simulations. These new schemes come at a small additional computational cost, especially compared to higher resolution simulations, and provide a means of understanding the origin of model biases and uncertainties.

How to cite: Juricke, S., Bagaeva, E., Danilov, S., and Koldunov, N.: Modelling the North Atlantic: How parameterizations affect model biases and uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10107, 2024.

The subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic, often referred to as ‘eighteen-degree water’ (EDW), has been investigated based on observational and theoretical studies. We here discuss the mechanism of EDW by using an ensemble-based approach which offers the advantage of separating the eddy field from the mean flow without making implicit assumptions on the temporal or spatial scales of the eddies. We employ an ensemble of North Atlantic Ocean simulations partially coupled with the atmosphere at mesoscale permitting resolution (1/12°), and determine EDW as a pool of the Ertel potential vorticity (PV) lower than the surroundings. Our results suggest that the maintenance of EDW can be explained by the down-gradient eddy PV fluxes balancing the mean flow: the low PV in the formation region is transported by the eddy fluxes to the pool and mixes with the surrounding high PV.  

How to cite: Sun, L., Uchida, T., Penduff, T., Deremble, B., and Dewar, W.: Eighteen Degree Water Dynamics Viewed from an Ensemble , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6506, 2024.

The energy budget of the global ocean circulation highlights the importance of winds and tides as primary energy sources. Tidal influence extends throughout the water column, particularly in regions of rough topography where internal waves are generated, leading to the conversion of energy from barotropic to baroclinic high-frequency modes. Our study explores the impact of tidal forcing on the general circulation using different experiments of a mesoscale-permitting global ocean model, with the addition of a topographic wave drag parametrization for unresolved scales. The focus is specifically on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our findings reveal that tides interact with mesoscale structures, either reinforcing or weakening the mean circulation based on the dynamic conditions of the flow. On a basin scale, we find that the meridional circulation is weakened by tides on multidecadal time scales, despite robust interannual variability. We analyze these impacts in the momentum balance, concentrating on the role of tides in altering the AMOC geostrophic balance.

How to cite: Borile, F., Cessi, P., Iovino, D., and Pinardi, N.: The influence of tides on the AMOC in an eddy-permitting global general circulation model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12614, 2024.

The North Atlantic Ocean hosts the largest volume of global subtropical mode waters (STMWs), serving as heat, carbon, and oxygen silos in the ocean interior. STMWs are formed in the Gulf Stream region where thermal fronts are pervasive with strong feedbacks to atmosphere. However, their roles in the STMW formation have been overlooked. Using eddy-resolving global climate simulations, we find that suppressing local frontal-scale ocean-to-atmosphere (FOA) feedback leads to STMW formation being reduced almost by half. This is because FOA feedback enlarges STMW outcropping, attributable to the mixed layer deepening associated with cumulative excessive latent heat loss due to higher wind speeds and greater air-sea humidity contrast driven by the Gulf Stream fronts. Such enhanced heat loss overshadows the stronger restratification induced by vertical eddy and turbulent heat transport, making STMW colder and heavier. With more realistic representation of FOA feedback, the eddy-present/rich coupled global climate models reproduce the observed STMWs much better than the eddy-free ones. Such improvement in STMW production cannot be achieved even with the oceanic resolution solely refined but without coupling to the overlying atmosphere in oceanic general circulation models. Our findings highlight the need to resolve FOA feedback to ameliorate the common severe underestimation of STMW and associated heat and carbon uptakes in earth system models.

How to cite: Yu, J., Gan, B., Wu, L., Danabasoglu, G., Small, R. J., Baker, A. H., Jia, F., Jing, Z., Ma, X., Yang, H., and Chen, Z.: North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation controlled by Gulf Stream fronts, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4366, 2024.

Two major trans-basin mooring arrays, the Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID) at 26.5°N since 2004 and the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) situated at 53°–60°N since 2014, have been continuously monitoring the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This study explores the connectivity of AMOC across these two mooring lines from a novel adiabatic perspective utilizing a model-based data set. The findings unveil significant in-phase connections facilitated by the adiabatic basinwide redistribution of water between the two lines on a monthly timescale. This adiabatic mode is a possible cause for the observed subpolar AMOC seasonality by OSNAP. Furthermore, the Labrador Sea was identified as a hotspot for adiabatic forcing of the overturning circulations, primarily attributed to its dynamic isopycnal movements.

How to cite: Han, L.: AMOC Connectivity Between the RAPID and OSNAP Lines Revealed by a Model-Based Dataset, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20241, 2024.

Pressure on the ocean's "sidewalls" - the global continental slope - is strongly dynamically constrained by the steep topography. As a result we find that, even in an eddy-rich ocean model, its variability exhibits coherence over many thousands of kilometres. Here, we examine the time-mean pressures and show how they reflect a combination of global wind-driven signals, interaction with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the AMOC, which is seen in the development of pressure around the boundary of the North Atlantic. The need for pressure to be single-valued around the global continental slope ensures that these factors must come to a consistent balance, which shows that two remote factors together must come into a balance with the AMOC. We elucidate how these factors interact, and illustrate them with diagnostics from a 1/12 degree ocean model.

How to cite: Hughes, C. and Gururaj, S.: Remote influence of (or on?) the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A boundary pressure perspective., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8720, 2024.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a driving force in the redistribution of heat on our planet and has a particularly large impact on the climate of the Northern Hemisphere and Europe. Reliability of coupled model projections has been questioned due to a body of evidence that the multi-model mean of climate models disagree with observational proxies for the AMOC, in particular in the mid-20th century. In turn, the reliability of these observational proxies has been questioned as they are not direct observations of the AMOC.

In order to study the variations of AMOC during the 20th century, we have developed layered models based on a limited number of time series: Ekman transport and the Florida Strait, as well as the density time series of the Thermocline, Antarctic Intermediate Waters (AAIW), Upper North Atlantic and Lower North Atlantic Deep Waters (UNADW, LNADW). These models, using the deep AMOC branches, are trained with modern RAPID measurements at 26N and compared to each other.

We use these models to predict, from hydrographic profiles, an estimate of the strength of the AMOC during the (mid) 20th century. Locations where EN4 profiles may be relevant to the reconstruction are identified using ocean model data that correlate temperature and salinity with the location of the RAPID measurement. The linear contribution of wind stress is also removed from the density time series using simple linear regression. Our aim is to provide, in the light of modern direct observations, an answer on the reliability of AMOC reconstructions and historical climate simulations during the mid-20th century.

How to cite: Hug, G., McCarthy, G., Moat, B., and Worthington, E.: Mid-20th Century Atlantic Circulation informed by Modern Observations and Models , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16016, 2024.

This study aims to analyze the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its dependence on convection in the  Labrador (LAB) and Greenland (GIN) Seas. We have used EC-Earth3-HR, the high-resolution version of the global coupled climate model EC-Earth3 in this study. EC-Earth3-HR has a resolution of about 0.25 degrees in the ocean and 40 km in the atmosphere. In contrast to the HighResMIP-protocol, EC-Earth3-HR has undergone a tuning process and a multi-centennial spin-up has been performed. The set of experiments analyzed here consists of a pre-industrial control simulation (piControl), a one percent per year increase in CO2 experiment (1pctCO2) branching from year 250 of our piControl simulation, and two experiments with fixed CO2 concentrations (400.9 ppm and 551.5 ppm) branch off from two points corresponding to global temperature anomalies of around 1°C and 2°C in the 1pctCO2 experiment. Here we have defined deep convection as the mean mixed volume in March, with deep convection equal to zero when the mixed-layer is shallower than a critical depth. Our preliminary results suggest that as the climate warms, the North Atlantic waters become warmer and fresher, promoting the weakening of the North Atlantic deep convection and a subsequent reduction in AMOC strength (up to 20% reduction). The simulated overturning circulation weakening seems to be dominated by changes in LAB deep convection with GIN convection contributing less. Circulation changes in the pre-industrial and the different CO2 concentration experiments are dominated by a strong decadal variability. Compared to the standard resolution EC-Earth3-version, the use of a high resolution leads to deeper ocean mixing in LAB and GIN. More analysis has to be done on the way to clarify to what extent increased resolution affects our results in comparison with previous studies.

How to cite: Navarro Labastida, R. G., Karami, M. P., Koenigk, T., de Boer, A., and Sicard, M.: Simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warmer climate and the linkage with the North Atlantic convection using EC-Earth-HR, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16587, 2024.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a basin-scale natural mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multi-century-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with the suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favoring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and associated meridional heat advection prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.  

How to cite: Li, S., Wu, L., and Wang, Y.: Intensified Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a warming climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4367, 2024.

A new thermodynamic potential of seawater is found with the temperature variable being Conservative Temperature.  From this thermodynamic potential all the thermodynamic variables of seawater can be calculated.  This thermodynamic potential adds to the two other thermodynamic potentials, the Gibbs function and the Helmholtz function, which have been known for more than a century.  Because of the advantages of using Conservative Temperature instead of in situ temperature, it is expected that the new thermodynamic potential will replace the Gibbs function in oceanography.  The new thermodynamic potential can be expressed as the sum of two parts, one depending on enthalpy and the other on entropy, and it is shown that there is a clean separation between the thermodynamic properties such as specific volume and sound speed that depend only on enthalpy, and those that depend also on enthalpy such as in situ temperature. 

How to cite: McDougall, T.: The new thermodynamic potential of seawater in terms of Conservative Temperature , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2756, 2024.

Of the additional carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities the ocean absorbs approximately a quarter, with a disproportionate fraction accumulating at depth in the North Atlantic due to the combined action of northward ocean transport (through the meridional overturning circulation) and strong air-sea fluxes. Combining repeat hydrography with circulation estimates from the RAPID mooring array at 26N it was found that between 2004 and 2012 these two processes were roughly equal in magnitude, but decreasing ocean transports were tipping the balance more towards air-sea uptake over time as the AMOC weakened. New observations from 2012 to 2022 show that this process has now reversed - a recovering AMOC combined with increasing loadings of carbon is now transporting substantially greater quantities of anthropogenic carbon northwards into the North Atlantic. Changes in regional air-sea fluxes suggests that the increased northward ocean carbon transport may be affecting CO₂ uptake capacity downstream.

How to cite: Brown, P., McDonagh, E., Sanders, R., Moat, B., Frajka-Williams, E., King, B., Carracedo, L., Watson, A., Schuster, U., Flohr, A., Johns, W., and Baringer, M.: Enhanced northward ocean transport of anthropogenic carbon through recovery of overturning circulation may be affecting North Atlantic CO2 uptake efficiency, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15696, 2024.

North Atlantic (NA) biological productivity and resulting carbon uptake (Biological Carbon Pump, BCP) are supported by the northward transport of nutrients by the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Changes in the strength of the AMOC are subject to influence ocean nutrient cycling and the efficiency of the BCP. In this study, we present evidence for non-steady state behaviour based on 14 years of observations (2004-2018) at 26.5°N. Our results show significant (>80%) nutrient transport variability tightly related to AMOC alongside predominantly net southward nutrient transport exceeding total nutrient sources. Changes over the observational period indicate: i) increasing NA BCP efficiency (remineralized:preformed ratio); ii) decreasing NA nutrient inventory, except towards the end of the period when the system was closer to balance.

How to cite: Carracedo, L. I., McDonagh, E., Sanders, R., Moore, M., Mercier, H., Brown, P., Torres-Valdés, S., Mawji, E. W., Baringer, M., Smeed, D., and Rosón, G.: Atlantic meridional nutrient transport 2004-2018 timeseries: insights into inorganic nutrient pool reorganization by the AMOC , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17617, 2024.

Thermal variability in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean may be understood in terms of opposing fast and slow responses to atmospheric events, such as involving the response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). What is unclear is the associated ocean carbon response to atmospheric events, and how that response differs from the thermal response? Here, we diagnose the output from a full Earth system model, UKESM1 piControl simulation integrated over 1100 years, and analyse the transient response to a composite NAO event, derived from combining 270 NAO+ and 246 NAO- individual events. The carbon response is then separated into a fast and slow response to the onset of a single NAO event. During a NAO+ event, there is an initial local response extending over the first one to two years involving anomalous surface cooling and air-sea uptake of carbon in the subpolar gyre. Consequently, there is a reduction in heat storage and an increase in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), together with enhanced mixed-layer entrainment of nutrients leading to an increase in biological export of carbon. There is then a delayed response extending for a further 10 years, involving an influx of warm and salty waters through ocean advection, which also carries an increase in both alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon. Hence, the ocean thermal and carbon responses  involve  a combination of fast, local responses to atmospheric  forcing (involving air-sea exchange, entrainment and biological export) plus a slow, far-field response to prior atmospheric events (involving ocean redistribution of heat, salt, alkalinity and carbon together with continued air-sea exchange). The thermal and carbon responses differ in that the thermal response involves opposing signs in the fast and slow contributions, while the carbon response involves reinforcing fast and slow contributions. This asymmetry is primarily due to opposing signs in the fast contributions with surface cooling leading to a reduction in heat storage, but an increase in carbon storage. Hence, the ocean memory of an atmospheric event is greater for carbon than for heat. 

How to cite: Williams, R. and Khatri, H.: Reinforcing fast and slow carbon responses to atmospheric events in the subpolar North Atlantic , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12828, 2024.

Wintertime variability of both the strength of the jet stream and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index have been correlated in decadal time scale. Both have positive trends since the 1960s which have been recently proposed to be connected to anthropogenic global warming. At the same time there is a rich literature explaining both the observed variability and also the discrepancy with circulation models in which the variability is usually much smaller. Among the proposed mechanisms were “tug-of-war” between the tropics and the Arctic lower troposphere and surface temperatures, Arctic amplification, polar vortex strength. However, none of those forcing can not explain the trends in all the studied period.

The motivation behind the present study is to find a mechanism which can explain the variability and trend in the whole period of accelerated global warning, that is since the middle of the previous century. One possible candidate can be warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere, both well established results of the increase in greenhouse gas forcing. Together with the lowering of the tropopause altitude with increasing latitude, this results in warming south of the jet stream and cooling north of it, increasing the very gradient which sustains a thermal wind such as the jet stream.

The results of early analysis show that the greenhouse related tropospheric warming / stratospheric cooling is a plausible candidate for the driver of changes in the wintertime jet stream strength and related NAO changes supporting the notion that NAO may head towards constant positive values. However the question remains why such changes are only visible in the Atlantic sector and not elsewhere in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The multidecadal wintertime NAO changes seemed related with the AMO/AMV variability of North Atlantic SST values at least until the 1990s. This leaves the possibility that both Atlantic SSTs and greenhouse gas forcing are drivers of the variability in the wintertime jet stream strength.

How to cite: Piskozub, J.: Anthropogenic influence on wintertime jet stream strength in the Atlantic sector. Is it real? Is it Atlantic SST mediated?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11572, 2024.

How to cite: Maycock, A., Bonnet, R., and McKenna, C.: Model spread in the multidecadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation connected to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8426, 2024.

The interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the latitudinal shifts of the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front (GSF) has been the subject of extensive investigations. There are indications of non-stationarity in this interaction, but differences in the methodologies used in previous studies make it difficult to draw consistent conclusions. Furthermore, there is a lack of consensus on the key mechanisms underlying the response of the GSF to the NAO. This study assesses the possible non-stationarity in the NAO–GSF interaction and the mechanisms underlying this interaction during 1950–2020, using reanalysis data. Results show that the NAO and GSF indices covary on the decadal timescale but only during 1972–2018. A secondary peak in the NAO–GSF covariability emerges on multi-annual timescales but only during 2005–2015. The non-stationarity in the decadal NAO–GSF co-variability is also manifested in variations in their lead–lag relationship. Indeed, the NAO tends to lead the GSF shifts by 3 years during 1972–1990 and by 2 years during 1990–2018. The response of the GSF to the NAO at the decadal timescale can be interpreted as the joint effect of the fast response of wind-driven oceanic circulation, the response of deep oceanic circulation, and the propagation of Rossby waves. However, there is evidence of Rossby wave propagation only during 1972–1990. Here it is suggested that the non-stationarity of Rossby wave propagation caused the time lag between the NAO and the GSF shifts on the decadal timescale to differ between the two time periods.

How to cite: Bellucci, A., Famooss Paolini, L., Omrani, N.-E., Athanasiadis, P., Ruggieri, P., Patrizio, C., and Keenlyside, N.: Non-stationarity in the NAO–Gulf Stream SST front interaction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7739, 2024.

Climate change simulations predict a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In the North Atlantic, where the deep convection occurs, the AMOC has a particularly marked influence. Here, the AMOC decline could have significant implications for the evolution of weather patterns, resulting in societal risks for densely populated areas of Europe. 

We employ the Weather Regime framework to analyse the change in the daily variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in three coordinated experiments from the CMIP6 archive (i.e., ssp2-4.5, ssp5-8.5 and abrupt-4xCO2). We find that models that simulate a larger AMOC decline feature a net increase in NAO+ regime frequency and persistence compared to models that simulate a smaller AMOC decline. We show that this is due to the influence of a reduced warming of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) on mean geopotential height, caused by the AMOC weakening. We further show that this also causes the storm track to strengthen due to an increased baroclinicity of the atmosphere in the region, with possible consequences on future extreme events.

Overall, our results suggest that the evolution of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation depends on the AMOC decline. We conclude that ocean circulation is a main driver of NAO variability in projections of future climate change, in addition to previously known drivers. 

How to cite: Vacca, A. V., Bellomo, K., Fabiano, F., and von Hardenberg, J.: The role of a weakening AMOC in shaping future Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5278, 2024.

Motivated by the observation that the interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is associated with the ensemble emergence of individual NAO events occurring on the intraseasonal time scale, one naturally wonders how the intraseasonal processes cause the interannual variability, and what the dynamics are underlying the multiscale interaction. Using a novel time-dependent and spatially localized multiscale energetics formalism, this study investigates the dynamical sources for the NAO events with different phases and interannual regimes. For the positive-phase events (NAO⁺), the intraseasonal-scale kinetic energy (K¹) over the North Atlantic sector is significantly enhanced for NAO⁺ occurring in the negative NAO winter regime (NW), compared to those in the positive winter regime (PW). It is caused by the enhanced inverse cascading from synoptic transients and reduced energy dispersion during the life cycle of NAO⁺ in NW. For the negative-phase events (NAO⁻), K¹ is significantly larger during the early and decay stages of NAO⁻ in NW than that in PW, whereas the reverse occurs in the peak stage. Inverse cascading and baroclinic energy conversion are primary drivers in the formation of the excessive K¹ during the early stage of NAO⁻ in NW, whereas only the latter contributes to the larger K¹ during the decay stage of NAO⁻ in NW compared to that in PW. The barotropic transfer from the mean flow, inverse cascading and baroclinic energy conversion are all responsible for the strengthened K¹ in the peak stage of NAO⁻ in PW.

How to cite: Yang, Y., Liang, X. S., and He, W.-B.: On the Formation and Maintenance of the Interannual Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2646, 2024.

The historical variability of the winter mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has featured periods with large multi-decadal trends which are not well represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in the winter mean NAO index series. Post-processing “reddening” methods are proposed, using stochastic model theory to make the autocorrelation structure of the CGCM NAO index match that of the observed NAO. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), these recalibration methods are shown to successfully improve the autocorrelation structure of the NAO and in turn the simulation of extreme trends. The 1963-1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period, but without reddening the CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten.

CMIP6 future projections show a small systematic increase in long-term (2024-2094) NAO ensemble mean trends relative to the magnitude of the radiative forcing from ‑0.09 to 0.16 hPa/decade (range for low to high radiative forcing scenarios). This range is doubled after reddening, becoming ‑0.24 to 0.35 hPa/decade. There is also a related shift in the distribution of extreme 31-year NAO trends, which is more clearly apparent after reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024-2054) are less sensitive to the future scenario. After reddening they still show weak-to-no forced trend in the models but have a 74% larger ensemble range (around +/- 1 standard deviation per decade). This level of internal variability could increase or decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are greatly underestimated when using raw climate model output.

How to cite: Eade, R., Stephenson, D. B., Scaife, A. A., and Smith, D. M.: Recalibration of extreme multi-decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2104, 2024.