Side Events
Disciplinary Sessions
Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions

Session programme


CL – Climate: Past, Present, Future

Programme group chairs: Julia Hargreaves, Didier Roche, Martin Wild, Jan-Berend Stuut

CL3 – Future climate

ITS5.1/SSP2.1/CL3.01/GM6.7/SSS13.32 Media

The Anthropocene is a topic of broad and current interest that is being discussed across various disciplines, within Earth Sciences, but also in the humanities and in the media. Its significance and usefulness as the youngest epoch of the Geological Time Scale is examined by the Working Group of the Anthropocene of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy, part of the International Commission on Stratigraphy. A multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach for investigating and discussing the Anthropocene is feasible, including not only various Earth Sciences disciplines such as stratigraphy, sedimentology, geochemistry and palaeontology, but also archaeology, geography, geomorphology and various disciplines of the humanities and the arts. This session invites transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary contributions on the significance, usefulness and application of the term, as well as case studies including proposals on possible GSSPs (Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point) for a definition of the Anthropocene as part of the Geological Time Scale. The session will foster transdisciplinary dialogue and interdisciplinary cooperation and understanding on the scale and reach of anthropogenic changes within the Earth System.

Co-organized as SSP2.1/CL3.01/GM6.7/SSS13.32
Convener: Michael Wagreich | Co-conveners: Katrin Hornek, Kira Lappé, Colin N. Waters, Jan Zalasiewicz
| Wed, 10 Apr, 16:15–18:00
Room N1
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X1

Accurate and precise atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations reveal the rapid and unceasing rise of global GHG concentrations due to human activity. The resulting increases in global temperatures, sea-level, glacial retreat, and other negative impacts are clear. In response to this evidence, nations, states, and cities, private enterprises and individuals have been accelerating GHG reduction efforts while meeting the needs of global development. The urgency, complexity and economic implications of GHG reductions demand strategic investment in science-based information for planning and tracking emission reduction policies and actions. In response, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch Program (GAW) and its partners have initiated the development of an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS). IG3IS combines atmospheric GHG concentration measurements and human-activity data in an inverse modeling framework to help decision-makers take better-informed action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants that reduce air quality. This service is based on existing and successful measurement and analysis methods and use-cases for which the scientific and technical skill is proven or emerging.
This session intends to gather presentations from researchers and decision-makers (user-community) on the development, implementation and use of atmospheric measurement-based “top-down” and data-driven “bottom-up” GHG emission inventory estimates, and the combination of both approaches, explicit in space and time, to deliver actionable emissions information at scales where human activity occurs and emission reduction is most effective. This session is part of the EGU General Assembly 2019 30th anniversary celebration of the WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch Program and its commitment to science-based services.

Co-organized as BG1.67/CL3.02/ERE1.6
Convener: Phil DeCola | Co-conveners: Tomohiro Oda, Oksana Tarasova
| Fri, 12 Apr, 14:00–15:45, 16:15–18:00
Room 0.11
| Attendance Fri, 12 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall X5
CL3.03 | PICO

Carbon budgets are a finite quantity of carbon that can be emitted whilst holding warming below some given temperature level, such as the 1.5 and 2.0ºC temperature limits specified in the Paris Agreement. Carbon budgets emerge from the near-proportional relationship between total anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and change in global mean temperature seen in virtually all Earth System Models. This relationship is known as the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE). Carbon budgets and the associated cumulative emissions framework have recently been used to: estimate the fraction of known fossil fuel reserves that can be burnt, attribute historical responsibility for climate change, and to scrutinize national emissions commitments towards meeting the Paris Agreement goal.

The session invites contributions examining a wide range of aspects related to carbon budgets and the TCRE framework, including: the governing mechanisms that lead to the emergence of TCRE, how carbon budgets are affected by previously unquantified feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback, wetland methane feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, non-CO2 greenhouse gases ext.), quantification of the remaining carbon budget to reach given temperature goals (for example, from the Paris Agreement), uncertainties associated with these budgets, the role of pathway dependence, and the behaviour of TCRE in response to artificial CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets are also encouraged.

Co-organized as BG1.24
Convener: Andrew MacDougall | Co-conveners: Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna (Kasia) Tokarska
| Mon, 08 Apr, 16:15–18:00
PICO spot 5a
CR1.1 Media

Mountain glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to sea-level rise and have large impacts on water balance of local basins. This is a general session on glaciers and ice caps where the relationship to climate forms a particular focus. The IPCC AR5 of Working Group 1 covers Earths Glaciers and Ice Caps outside the ice sheets under the heading of Glaciers and shows that, despite much progress recently provided by the community, we are still left with substantial unknowns. We need to acquire more data, both from new fieldwork and release of unpublished data from prior years on mass changes of glaciers and ice caps from all regions of the world. We need to improve the understanding of the processes behind the changes, and we need to improve the application of models of different complexity. We welcome presentations on all aspects of mass changes; current, past and future changes based on field observations, remote sensing and modeling. Studies of physical processes controlling accumulation and ablation including calving and submarine melting, are especially welcome.

Co-organized as CL3.07
Convener: Jon Ove Hagen | Co-conveners: Nicholas Barrand, Matthias Huss, Georg Kaser
| Mon, 08 Apr, 14:00–18:00
Room 1.85
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall X4

Several large ensemble model simulations, either from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years. These ensembles, typically simulating historical climate and making future projections, are powerful because they can be used to accurately estimate forced changes in the climate system and to determine the magnitude and realism of simulated internal climate variability. They can further be applied to investigate how climate change signals may emerge from internal variability over time. Combining large ensemble simulations also provides long time series to investigate the dynamics of hydro-meteorological extremes and to assess compound events (e.g., successive or simultaneous extreme events) under conditions of climate change.

This session invites studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles looking at the following topics: 1) forced changes in internal variability and reinterpretation of observed record; 2) development of new approaches to attribution of observed events or trends; 3) impacts of natural climate variability; 4) assessment of extreme event occurrence in historical and future climate; 5) development of projections for compound events; 6) comparison of large ensembles including uncertainty assessment; and 7) novel methods for efficient analyses and post-processing of large ensembles.

We welcome research across the components of the Earth system and particularly invite studies that apply novel methods or cross disciplinary approaches to leverage the potential of large ensembles.

Co-organized as CL3.08/HS4.1.4
Convener: Nicola Maher | Co-conveners: Sebastian Milinski, Emma Aalbers, Ralf Ludwig
| Wed, 10 Apr, 08:30–12:30
Room E2
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X5
ITS4.6/CL3.09/ERE1.7/NH1.39 Media

Estimating the impact of climate change on both the natural and socio-economic environment plays an important role in informing a range of national and international policies, including energy, agriculture and health. Understanding these impacts, and those avoided, has never been more pertinent since the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which sought to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

Policies may aim to mitigate (i.e. reduce emissions), counteract (i.e. negative emissions) and/or adapt to anthropogenic climate change and it is equally important to quantify the impact of implementing these options. While rapid, deep mitigation is clearly a pre-requisite to success, delays to such measures imply a greater reliance upon large scale negative emissions technologies. Those based on land are likely to face competing pressure from wide ranging economic activity, and knowledge of these interactions and synergies is limited. Similarly while adaptation options are wide ranging, the uses of nature-based solutions, which often provide mitigation co-benefits and are often highly cost effective, are under-researched and rarely integrated into overall natural hazard or climate change risk management strategies.

Furthermore, the methods used to evaluate impact in the climate context are many and varied, including empirical, econometric and process-based. These methods continue to evolve implying that the assessment of impact may depend upon the analytical approach chosen.

This inter- and transdisciplinary session aims to draw together scientists, developing climate-impact evaluation methods, evaluating the impact (or avoided impact) of anthropogenic climate change upon natural and socio-economic environments, investigating the potential for mitigation and counteraction options to reduce long term risk, and studying the value of multiple adaptation options to stakeholders when planning how to manage vulnerability.

Invited speaker: Sonia Seneviratne

Co-organized as CL3.09/ERE1.7/NH1.39
Convener: Luke Jackson | Co-conveners: Paul Hudson, Dann Mitchell, Fabian Stenzel
| Wed, 10 Apr, 14:00–18:00
Room L7
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall X5

Natural hazards and climate change impacts in coastal areas
Coastal areas are vulnerable to ocean, atmospheric and land-based hazards. This vulnerability is likely to be exacerbated in future with, for example, sea level rise, increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, increased subsidence due to groundwater extraction. Drawing firm conclusions about current and future changes in this environment is challenging because uncertainties are often large. This calls for a better understanding of the underlying physical processes and systems. Furthermore, while global scale climate and detailed hydrodynamic modelling are reaching a mature development stage the robust assessment of impacts at regional and local scales remains in its infancy. Numerical models therefore play a crucial role in characterizing coastal hazards and assigning risks to them.

This session invites submissions focusing on assessments and case studies at global and regional scales of potential physical impacts of tsunamis, storm surge, sea level rise, waves, and currents on coasts. We also welcome submissions on near-shore ocean dynamics and also on the socio-economic impact of these hazards along the coast.

Co-organized as AS4.63/CL3.10/GM11.10/OS2.12
Convener: Renske de Winter | Co-conveners: Joern Behrens, Luke Jackson, Goneri Le Cozannet, Rosh Ranasinghe
| Fri, 12 Apr, 08:30–12:30, 14:00–15:45
Room 1.61
| Attendance Fri, 12 Apr, 16:15–18:00
Hall X3
ITS3.5/PS1.6/BG1.47/CL3.11/ERE1.3/HS11.25 | PICO

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (or Global Goals for Sustainable Development) are a collection of 17 global goals set by the United Nations Development Programme.The formal name for the SDGs is: "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development." That has been shortened to "2030 Agenda." The goals are broad and interdependent, yet each has a separate list of targets to achieve. Achieving all 169 targets would signal accomplishing all 17 goals. The SDGs cover social and economic development issues including poverty, hunger, health, education, global warming, gender equality, water, sanitation, energy, urbanization, environment and social justice.
For this interdisciplinary session, we invite contributions discussing How Earth, Planetary and Space Scientists can address UN Sustainable Development Goals . We shall discuss the relevance of fields of research disciplines covered by EGU, and how they can inform and support society government bodies, and stakeholders for the SDGs.
The session will include invited and contributed oral papers, as well as interactive posters, and panel discussions.

Co-organized as PS1.6/BG1.47/CL3.11/ERE1.3/HS11.25
Convener: Bernard Foing | Co-convener: Germaine Van der Sanden
| Thu, 11 Apr, 16:15–18:00
PICO spot 4
HS4.1.2 Media

Many water management sectors are already having to cope with extreme weather events, climate variability and change. For this purpose, climate services provide science-based and user-specific information on possible impacts. Such information can be based on weather forecasts or on climate projections. In this context, predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal to decadal timescales are an emerging and essential part of hydrological forecasting. With horizons ranging from months to a decade, these probabilistic forecasts are used in industries such as transport, energy, agriculture, forestry, health, insurance, tourism and infrastructure.

This session aims to cover the advances in climate and hydrological forecasting, and their implications on forecasting extreme events and servicing water users. It welcomes, without being restricted to, presentations on:

- Making use of climate data for hydrological modelling (downscaling, bias correction, temporal disaggregation, spatial interpolation and other technical challenges),
- Methods to improve forecasting of hydrological extremes,
- Improved representations of hydrological extremes in a future climate,
- Seamless forecasting, including downscaling and statistical post- and pre-processing,
- Propagation of climate model uncertainty to hydrological models and impact assessment,
- Lessons learnt from forecasting and managing present day extreme conditions,
- Effective methods to link stakeholder interests and scientific expertise,
- Operational climatic forecasting systems.

The session will bring together research scientists and operational managers in the fields of hydrology, meteorology and climate with the aim of sharing experiences and initiating discussions on this emerging topic. We encourage presentations from initiatives such as the H2020 IMPREX, BINGO, S2S4E and CLARA projects, and from WWRP/WCRP S2S projects that utilise the recently established S2S project database, and all hydrological relevant applications.

Co-organized as CL3.12
Convener: Christopher White | Co-conveners: Louise Arnal, Tim aus der Beek, Louise Crochemore, Bart van den Hurk
| Thu, 11 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room 2.15
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall A

One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales will be discussed and evaluated in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, etc.
Following the new WCPR strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.

A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects (e.g. EUCP, APPLICATE, PREFACE, MIKLIP, MEDSCOPE, SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E).

Solicited talk:
Multi-year prediction of ENSO
By Jing-Jia Luo from the Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Science Information and Technology, China

Co-organized as BG1.43/HS11.66/NH1.30/NP5.9/OS1.30
Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-conveners: Louis-Philippe Caron, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, June-Yi Lee, Stéphane Vannitsem
| Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room F2
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall X5
ITS4.8/AS4.46/BG1.41/CL3.13/CR1.12/GM5.6 Media

The Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain regions, known as the Third Pole, cover an area of > 5 million km2 and are considered to be the water tower of Asia. The Pan Third Pole expands on both the north-south and the east-west directions, going across the Tibetan Plateau, Pamir, Hindu Kush, Iran Plateau, Caucasian and Carpathian, and covering an area of about 20 million km2. Like the Arctic and Antarctica, the Pan Third Pole’s environment is extremely sensitive to global climate change. In recent years, scientists from around the globe have increased observational, remote sensing and numerical modeling research related to the Pan Third Pole in an effort to quantify and predict past, current and future scenarios. Co-sponsored by TPE (www.tpe.ac.cn), this session is dedicated to studies of Pan Third Pole atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and their interactions with global change. Related contributions are welcomed.

Co-organized as AS4.46/BG1.41/CL3.13/CR1.12/GM5.6
Convener: Yaoming Ma | Co-conveners: Fahu Chen, Franco Salerno, Bob Su, Fan Zhang
| Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15, 10:45–12:30
Room L7
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall X5

Climate education is often underestimated, both in terms of the role it can play in meeting the challenges of climate change, and with regards the difficulty of delivering it effectively. Climate change poses not only interdisciplinary scientific challenges around understanding the problem, but also socio-economic, technological, ethical and political challenges to implement appropriate responses at local to global scales. To rise to these challenges there is a growing need for climate education approaches and resources that adopt integrative learning objectives and pedagogically effective practices. Key objectives of climate education include furthering learners’ content knowledge of climate science and options for action (e.g., climate feedbacks, impacts, adaptation measures, renewable energy), cultivating science and communication skills (e.g., quantitative literacy, critical thinking, writing to inform), and initiating positive attitudes and actions (e.g., empathy and behavioural change).

This session invites contributions on climate education and outreach across all age levels (primary, high school and adult), settings (formal and informal) and approaches (e.g., websites, lab demos, serious games, pedagogic research, course design, citizen science, filmmaking, art). Contributions related to upper primary and middle school levels and those concerning adaptation of technical scientific materials for teaching, are particularly encouraged. The session is an opportunity for educators, resource developers, pedagogical experts and scientists to network and share ideas and research on climate education.

Co-organized as CL3.16
Convener: Robin Matthews | Co-conveners: Ines Blumenthal, Cheryl LB Manning, M.A. Martin, Jenny Schlüpmann
| Mon, 08 Apr, 10:45–12:30
PICO spot 4