Union-wide
Cross-cutting themes
Community-led
Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
Disciplinary sessions

CL – Climate: Past, Present & Future

Programme Group Chair: Kerstin Treydte

MAL13-CL
Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture by Michael Sigl
Convener: Kerstin Treydte
Abstract
| Thu, 18 Apr, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Thu, 19:00
MAL14-CL
Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture by Peter U. Clark
Convener: Kerstin Treydte
Abstract
| Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–17:15 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Mon, 16:15
MAL36-CL
CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture by Maria A. A. Rugenstein
Convener: Kerstin Treydte
Abstract
| Thu, 18 Apr, 10:50–11:20 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Thu, 10:50
DM3
Division meeting for Climate: Past, Present & Future (CL)
Convener: Kerstin Treydte
Tue, 16 Apr, 12:45–13:45 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Tue, 12:45

CL0.1 – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Irka Hajdas, Kerstin Treydte

ITS2.3/CL0.1.1 EDI

High-impact climate and weather events typically result from the interaction of multiple climate and weather drivers, as well as vulnerability and exposure, across various spatial and temporal scales. Such compound events often cause more severe socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events, rendering traditional univariate extreme event analyses and risk assessment techniques insufficient. It is, therefore, crucial to develop new methodologies that account for the possible interaction of multiple physical and societal drivers when analysing high-impact events under present and future conditions. Despite the considerable attention from the scientific community and stakeholders in recent years, several challenges and topics must still be addressed comprehensively.


These include: (1) identifying the compounding drivers, including physical drivers (e.g., modes of variability) and/or drivers of vulnerability and exposure, of the most impactful events; (2) Developing methods for defining compound event boundaries, i.e. legitimate the ‘cut-offs’ in the considered number of hazard types to ultimately disentangle enough information for decision-making; (3) Understanding whether and how often novel compound events, including record-shattering events, will emerge in the future; (4) Explicitly addressing and communicating uncertainties in present-day and future assessments (e.g., via climate storylines/scenarios); (5) Disentangling the contribution of climate change in recently observed events and future projections; (6) Employing novel Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble simulations from climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather, to better study compound events. (7) Developing novel statistical methods (e.g., machine learning, artificial intelligence, and climate model emulators) for compound events; (8) Assessing the weather forecast skill for compound events at different temporal scales; (9) Evaluating the performance of novel statistical methods, climate and impact models, in representing compound events and developing novel methods for reducing uncertainties (e.g., multivariate bias correction and emergent constraints); and (10) engaging with stakeholders to ensure the relevance of the aforementioned analyses.


We invite presentations considering all aspects of compound events, including but not limited to the topics and research challenges described above.

Convener: Emanuele BevacquaECSECS | Co-conveners: Zengchao Hao, Pauline RivoireECSECS, Wiebke JägerECSECS, Seth Westra
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 2.24
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 16:15
Fri, 14:00
ITS2.1/CL0.1.2 EDI

The life evolution history on earth is closely intertwined with the multiple stressors within the ever-changing climate system. Ranging from large-timescale oscillations associated with orbital cycles and the glacial-interglacial transitions to regionalized extreme events, a wide range of climatic fluctuations in the past may have contributed to shaping the distribution and evolution of various life forms in the terrestrial environment. The recent developments in observational and coupled climate-ecological modelling approaches have provided a better understanding on the past climate impacts on the evolution of life. However, few occasions have allowed for a general bridge across these fields. Integrating multi-dimensional scientific approaches will provide us with a deeper understanding on the complex climate-ecological interactions and evolution in the past, throwing light into the potential ecological impacts of future climate change.

This session aims at bringing together multidisciplinary research addressing the climate-ecological interactions in the past, present and future, combining observational techniques/methods and ecosystem modelling. We welcome all kind of research contributions in this context and the topics of interests include,

- Past climate change and mass extinctions
- Global biodiversity patterns
- Chemical analyses on the geological materials (teeth, bone collagen, guano/feces, middens, sediment cores
- Geochemical mapping and dietary reconstructions across food webs
- DNA extraction, and taxonomic profiling of microorganisms
- Vegetation dynamics
- Climate and biome modelling
- Species adaptations and ecological strategies
- Genetic diversification and speciation
- Vulnerability and extinction risk, under anthropogenic warming and land use change.

We hope that through this session, individuals can discover new methodologies, applications and collaborations within their research areas that would help push science forward.

Convener: Thushara VenugopalECSECS | Co-conveners: Daniel ClearyECSECS, Jiaoyang Ruan, Deming Yang, Hae-Li ParkECSECS, Valentina Vanghi, Sayak BasuECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 2.24
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 14:00
ITS2.12/CL0.1.4 EDI | PICO

The interconnection between climate, environment, and health is evident, with climate change posing significant threats to human welfare. As global temperature rise, extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, hurricanes, and droughts, directly and indirectly impact public health, alongside environmental exposures like air pollution. Climate and land use changes can influence the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and increase the risk of waterborne illnesses. Additionally, climate change may result in severe wildfires and episodes of air pollution.

Addressing these complex challenges requires fostering interdisciplinary collaboration among climate researchers, epidemiologists, public health researchers, and social scientists, which is the primary focus of this session. The goal is to create a platform for presenting the latest innovations in using remote sensing and other large datasets to characterize exposures relevant to human health, especially in data-limited regions. The session encompasses various topics, including satellite data applications in human health, planetary epidemiology, risk mapping of infectious diseases, exposure mapping of heat and air pollution to quantify their impacts on human health, health co-benefits of mitigation actions, and the use of machine learning and AI for climate and health applications. The session emphasizes the examination of historical exposure-health outcome relationships, forecasts for the near future, and changes under progressive climate change.

Convener: Sourangsu ChowdhuryECSECS | Co-conveners: Irena Kaspar-Ott, Sagnik Dey, R. Sari Kovats, Claudia Di Napoli, Elke Hertig, Ricardo Trigo
PICO
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 2
Tue, 08:30
ITS4.1/CL0.1.7 EDI

Recent assessments on the integrity of the Earth system and planetary health recognize the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system, with planetary-scale human impacts leading to increasing transgression of planetary boundaries constituting a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene (Richardson et al., Science Advances, 2023). Earth resilience, the capacity of the Earth system to resist, recover and regenerate from anthropogenic pressures, critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes and human-Earth system interactions. These include dynamics and interactions between the carbon cycle, the atmosphere, oceans, large-scale ecosystems, and the cryosphere, as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities. Studying Earth resilience requires a deeply integrated perspective on the human-Earth system in the Anthropocene and, hence, strong collaboration between diverse subdisciplines of Earth system science.

With rising anthropogenic pressures, there is an increasing risk of the human-Earth system hitting the ceiling of some of the self-regulating feedbacks of the Earth System, and of crossing tipping points in the large ice sheets, atmosphere-ocean circulation systems (e.g. the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and biomes such as the Amazon rainforest. Transgressing these critical thresholds in human pressures such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes could trigger large-scale and often abrupt and irreversible impacts on the biosphere and the livelihoods of millions of people. Potential domino effects or tipping cascades could arise due to the interactions between these tipping elements and lead to a further decline of Earth resilience. At the same time, there is growing evidence supporting the potential of positive (social) tipping points that could propel rapid decarbonization and transformative change towards global sustainability.

In this session, we invite contributions on all topics relating to Earth resilience, tipping points in the Earth system, planetary boundaries, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interactions and potential cascading domino effects. We are particularly interested in diverse methodological and quantitative approaches, from Earth system modelling to conceptual modelling and data analysis of nonlinearities, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

Convener: Jonathan Donges | Co-conveners: Ricarda Winkelmann, David Armstrong McKayECSECS, Marina Hirota, Lan Wang-ErlandssonECSECS, Simon Felix FahrländerECSECS, Johan Rockström
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:15 (CEST), 14:00–15:30 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 16:15
ITS1.10/CL0.1.9 EDI

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) advances climate system understanding, but Earth System Models (ESM) exhibit disparities, particularly in responses to forcings and system coupling. As the IPCC relies on CMIP to provide information for policy decisions, a multidisciplinary approach is crucial to address uncertainties across the full CMIP production line. This session invites studies on climate forcings, climate responses, uncertainties in forcing agents, and model disparities in CMIP projections.

We welcome diverse climate-forcing research, including historical and future, anthropogenic and natural forcing development, idealized Earth System Model studies, observational evaluations, and works spanning all climate system components. Topics may include identifying disparities in CMIP ESMs, quantifying uncertainties, and addressing key scientific priorities for future model development. Contributions on opportunities, challenges, and constraints in using CMIP output for impact research, especially at regional scales, are encouraged.
This session ultimately aims at fostering collaboration among climate scientists, observationalists and modelers to address climate change challenges. Convened by WCRP CMIP Forcing Task Team and Fresh Eyes on CMIP, it aims to enhance understanding of CMIP uncertainties and prepare for CMIP6Plus and CMIP7 climate-forcing datasets.

AGU and WMO
Convener: Lina TeckentrupECSECS | Co-conveners: Thomas AubryECSECS, Michaela I. Hegglin, Yiwen LiECSECS, Camilla MathisonECSECS, Julia MindlinECSECS, Alexander J. WinklerECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Wed, 10:45
ITS2.9/CL0.1.10 EDI

Climate change may regionally intensify the threat posed by future floods to societies. The space-time dynamics of floods are controlled by atmospheric, catchment, riverine and anthropogenic processes, and their interactions. From a global change perspective, Holocene and historical floods and their spatial and temporal patterns are of particular interest because they can be linked to former climate patterns, a proxy for future climate predictions. Millennial and centennial time series include the very rare extreme events, which are often considered by society as 'unprecedented'. By understanding their timing, magnitude and frequency in conjunction with prevailing climate regimes and human activities, we can overcome our lack of information and disentangle the so-called “unknown unknowns”. The reconstruction and modelling of space-time flood patterns, related atmospheric variability and flood propagation in river basins under different environmental settings are the foci of this session supported by the PAGES Floods Working Group. Flood-prone areas are, in many regions, hotspots of economic, social, and cultural development. Hence, the historical role of human action in altering flood frequencies, hydro-sedimentary, and environmental processes is a priority topic. The session will further stimulate scientific discussion on detection and attribution of flood risk change.
We welcome interdisciplinary contributions using natural and documentary archives, instrumental data, and model reconstructions, which:
i) provide knowledge from short-term to long-term development of cultural river-landscapes and human-environmental interaction,
ii) reconstruct and model temporal and spatial flood patterns related to climate variability and change, including long-term changes in rainfall patterns,
iii) analyse the role of catchment conditions in shaping flood patterns,
iv) develop (supra-) regional historical maps of extreme floods (MEF),
v) highlight historical risk mitigation strategies of local communities and assess the flood risk of cultural heritage sites,
vi) collect evidence of the Anthropocene in floodplains and wetlands,
vii) detect changes in flood exposure and vulnerability.
The interdisciplinary integration of information is critical for the provision of robust data sets and baseline information for future flood risk scenarios, impacts, adaptation and mitigation strategies, and integrated river management.

Co-organized by HS12
Convener: Lothar Schulte | Co-conveners: Dominik PaprotnyECSECS, Thomas RoggenkampECSECS, Daniela Kroehling, Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Canovas, Miriam BertolaECSECS, Larisa Tarasova
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 2.24
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
ITS5.12/CL0.1.11 EDI

Coastal zones are of high ecological and recreational value. At the same time, they are heavily impacted by a combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers of change, such as drainage, nutrient pollution, land use and fishing. This interdisciplinary session combines studies of the interrelationship of climate and other drivers of change on coastal processes (former ITS5.12), including biogeochemical cycling (former BG4.3), and nature-based solutions to manage these coastal socio-ecological systems (former ITS4.7).

Convener: Maren Voss | Co-conveners: Marcus Reckermann, Timothy Stojanovic, Eleonora GioiaECSECS, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, Sara E. Anthony, Eva EhrnstenECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 2.24
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
ITS4.18/CL0.1.12 EDI | PICO

Water and climate-related risks, including changing rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and fires, pose significant challenges to various sectors of society. In order to mitigate these risks and support adaptive planning and management, the development and provision of hydroclimatic information services play a crucial role. Water and climate information services (WCISs) have potential to reduce the impacts of water and climate-related risks by providing timely and accurate information in advance. As a result, substantial resources and research efforts have been dedicated to the development of global and regional WCISs. These services encompass a wide range of initiatives, from the establishment of natural hazard early warning systems (EWSs) to the creation of platforms and dashboards that support decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and transportation.
The session aims to provide a platform for showcasing the current developments in WCIS for adaptation planning and management. The session will cover various topics with diverse applications, including the development of natural hazard EWSs, the creation of tools and dashboards for forecasting extreme weather events, and the facilitation of WCIS for sector-specific decision-making processes. Contributions related to co-designing of WCIS, the involvement of stakeholders in the development of WCIS, and innovative applications of WCIS for adaptation planning and management are also encouraged. This session will facilitate the exchange of knowledge and expertise among scientists, practitioners, and users of WCISs.

Public information:

This session consists of diverse climate information services (CIS) that have been developed worldwide. The themes include training and co-develop CIS and developing CIS for agriculture, water resources, and extreme events. 

Convener: Samuel Jonson Sutanto | Co-conveners: Biljana Basarin, Spyros PaparrizosECSECS, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Moriom Akter MousumiECSECS
PICO
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 1
Thu, 16:15
ITS3.11/CL0.1.13 EDI

Environmental issues are not only ecological but also social and cultural. To address them effectively, we need to understand how human societies interact with the environment. This session highlights the importance of social science in environmental research and vice versa, and invites contributions that explore how interdisciplinary collaboration can lead to innovative and sustainable solutions. We welcome researchers from various disciplines, such as environmental science, social science, data analysis, data providers and metadata specialists, to share their insights, case studies, and challenges. We aim to foster meaningful discussions and exchange of ideas across different perspectives and domains. By integrating the expertise of social scientists with environmental research and vice versa, we can develop a more comprehensive and holistic understanding of environmental problems and their solutions. Let's work together to contribute to a more sustainable relationship between humanity and the environment.
Topics may include, but are not limited to, the following:

– Air quality and climate indicator’s effects on urban citizens’s attitudes
– Climate action plans and solutions for green and sustainable cities
– Cultural heritage and environmental sustainability
– Environmental policy and governance
– Sustainable agriculture and land use
– Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services
– Climate adaptation and resilience
– Citizen science and public engagement
– Project reports or infrastructure requirements related to multiiciplinary usecases

Convener: Hilde Orten | Co-conveners: Angeliki AdamakiECSECS, Hannah Clark, Claudio D'Onofrio
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 14:00
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
ITS4.8/CL0.1.16 EDI

Climate change and environmental degradation constitute a growing threat to the stability of societal and economical systems. The observed increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events combined with the projected long-term shifts in climate patterns and consequential impacts on biodiversity, have the potential to significantly affect the global economy. Consequently, the financial and insurance sectors could face substantial risks from these climate events unless effectively managed. This requires an accurate estimate of future climate risks, while understanding their complex and non-linear characteristics, and translating these impacts to a scale that is relevant and meaningful for society.

In recognition of this challenge climate risk assessments have experienced amplified attention in both the academic and private spheres, leading to initiatives such as the ‘Network for Greening the Financial Sector’ (NGFS) and the ‘Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure’ (TCFD). These initiatives aim at providing comprehensive climate impact information for the private sector and financial institutions which providing actionable information for understanding and managing climate risk.

Nevertheless, criticisms have emerged regarding the models' inadequacies in representing extreme events, the intricate nature of climate extremes characterized by their compounding and cascading effects, and the oversight of non-linearities associated with tipping elements in the climate system. These shortcomings suggest that current risk assessments may be overly conservative, missing the most impactful events.

Therefore, providing a platform to foster interactions between scientists, economists and financial experts is urgently needed. With the goal of facilitating such dialogue, this session aims at providing a platform for actors from academia and the private sector to exchange information on strategies for assessing climate risk. In particular, we are interested in submissions that focus on:

-Innovative climate risk modeling for
-Chronic and Acute Climate Risks
-Compound Events and Cascading Impacts
-Model Evaluation of Extreme weather events
-Bias adjustment Methods
-Downscaling Methods
-Construction of novel Climate Hazard Indicators and their projections for specific sectors (Food, Energy, Real Estate,...)
-Supply chains
-Impact Data Collection and Empirical Assessments
-Construction Derivation Damage functions
-Climate – Nature nexus

Convener: Kai KornhuberECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrej Ceglar, Nicola Ranger, Alessio CiulloECSECS, Maximilian KotzECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 2.17
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 16:15
ITS1.1/CL0.1.17 EDI

Machine learning (ML) is transforming data analysis and modelling of the Earth system. While statistical and data-driven models have been used for a long time, recent advances in ML and deep learning now allow for encoding non-linear, spatio-temporal relationships robustly without sacrificing interpretability. This has the potential to accelerate climate science through new approaches for modelling and understanding the climate system. For example, ML is now used in the detection and attribution of climate signals, to merge theory and Earth observations in innovative ways, and to directly learn predictive models from observations. The limitations of machine learning methods also need to be considered, such as requiring, in general, rather large training datasets, data leakage, and/or poor generalisation abilities so that methods are applied where they are fit for purpose and add value.

This session aims to provide a venue to present the latest progress in the use of ML applied to all aspects of climate science, and we welcome abstracts focussed on, but not limited to:

More accurate, robust and accountable ML models:
- Hybrid models (physically informed ML, parameterizations, emulation, data-model integration)
- Novel detection and attribution approaches
- Probabilistic modelling and uncertainty quantification
- Uncertainty quantification and propagation
- Distributional robustness, transfer learning and/or out-of-distribution generalisation tasks in climate science
- Green AI

Improved understanding through data-driven approaches:
- Causal discovery and inference: causal impact assessment, interventions, counterfactual analysis
- Learning (causal) process and feature representations in observations or across models and observations
- Explainable AI applications
- Discover governing equations from climate data with symbolic regression approaches

Enhanced interaction:
- The human in the loop - active learning & reinforcement learning for improved emulation and simulations
- Large language models and AI agents - exploration and decision making, modeling regional decision-making
- Human interaction within digital twins

Convener: Duncan Watson-Parris | Co-conveners: Marlene KretschmerECSECS, Gustau Camps-Valls, Peer NowackECSECS, Sebastian SippelECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST)
 
Room C
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
ITS1.3/CL0.1.18 EDI

Machine learning (ML) is being used throughout the geophysical sciences with a wide variety of applications.
Advances in big data, deep learning, and other areas of artificial intelligence (AI) have opened up a number of new approaches.

Many fields (climate, ocean, NWP, space weather etc.) make use of large numerical models and are now seeking to enhance these by combining them with scientific ML/AI.
Examples include ML emulation of computationally intensive processes, training on high resolution models or data-driven parameterisations for sub-grid processes, and Bayesian optimisation of model parameters and ensembles amongst several others.

Doing this brings a number of unique challenges, however, including but not limited to:
- enforcing physical compatibility and conservation laws, and incorporating physical intuition into ML models,
- ensuring numerical stability,
- coupling of numerical models to ML frameworks and language interoperation,
- handling computer architectures and data transfer,
- adaptation/generalisation to different models/resolutions/climatologies,
- explaining, understanding, and evaluating model performance and biases.

Addressing these requires knowledge of several areas and builds on advances already made in domain science, numerical simulation, machine learning, high performance computing, data assimilation etc.

We solicit talks that address any topics relating to the above.
Anyone working to combine machine learning techniques with numerical modelling is encouraged to participate in this session.

Convener: Jack AtkinsonECSECS | Co-conveners: Julien Le Sommer, Alessandro Rigazzi, Filippo GattiECSECS, Will ChapmanECSECS, Nishtha SrivastavaECSECS, Emily Shuckburgh
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00

CL1.1 – Past Climate - Deep Time

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officer: Jan-Berend Stuut

CL1.1.1 EDI

The geological record provides insight into how climate processes operate and evolve in response to different than modern boundary conditions and forcings. Understanding deep-time climate evolution is paramount to progressing on understanding fundamental questions of Earth System feedbacks and sensitivity to perturbations, such as the behaviour of the climate system and carbon cycle under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels—relative to the Quaternary—, or the existence of climatic tipping points and thresholds. In recent years, geochemical techniques and Earth System Models complexity have been greatly improved and several international projects on deep-time climates (DeepMIP, MioMIP, PlioMIP) have been initiated, helping to bridge the gap between palaeoclimate modelling and data community. This session invites work on deep-time climate and Earth System model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions from the Cambrian to the Pliocene. We especially encourage submissions featuring palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, palaeoclimate and carbon cycle modelling, and the integration of proxies and models of any complexity.

Convener: Yonggang Liu | Co-conveners: Jean-Baptiste LadantECSECS, Yannick Donnadieu, Ran FengECSECS, Pam VervoortECSECS, Hana JurikovaECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Mon, 16:15
CL1.1.2 EDI

The pacing of the global climate system by orbital variations is clearly demonstrated in the timing of e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles. The mechanisms that translate this forcing in nonlinear ways into geoarchives and climate changes continue to be debated.
In this regard, paleoclimate signals from Iberian margin sediment cores are exceptional, because these can be correlated precisely to polar ice cores from both hemispheres and with European terrestrial records, providing a rare opportunity to study ocean-ice-land interactions. Moreover, the Iberian continental slope provides a bathymetric gradient that intersects each of the major subsurface water masses of the North Atlantic, which is ideal for reconstructing past changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ventilation. Given the seminal importance of the Iberian margin for marine-ice-terrestrial correlations, it has been a prime target for the recovery of sediment cores.
We invite submissions that explore the climate system response to orbital forcing, and that test the stability of these relationships under different climate regimes or across evolving climate states (e.g. mid Pleistocene transition, Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Miocene vs Pliocene, and especially older climate transitions). Further, we deliberatiely focus on contributions that bring together recent research using the Iberian margin sediment archive to reconstruct climate variability on millennial-to-orbital timescales and integrate marine, atmospheric (ice core), and terrestrial signals to understand causal mechanisms of global climate change. Submissions exploring proxy data and/or modelling work are welcomed, as this session aims to bring together proxy-based, theoretical and/or modelling studies focused on global and regional climate responses to astronomical forcing at different time scales in the Phanerozoic.
David De Vleeschouwer will give an invited presentation on 'Pre-Cenozoic cyclostratigraphy and paleoclimate responses to astronomical forcing'.

Co-organized by SSP2
Convener: Christian Zeeden | Co-conveners: Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Huai-Hsuan May HuangECSECS, Xiaolei PangECSECS, Marion PeralECSECS, David Hodell, Fatima Abrantes
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–17:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 14:00
Mon, 16:15
Mon, 14:00
CL1.1.4 EDI

The planet is warming due to human-made greenhouse gas emissions, which have increased drastically since the industrial revolution. To grasp potential pathways for future climate, we need to understand what the impacts of elevated greenhouse gas emissions are on the global heat budget and how the climate system functions in conditions warmer than today. Geological archives and model simulations of past climate states are the key to better understanding climate dynamics in different, warmer-than-today climate conditions. Past warm climates also help to benchmark climate model simulations used to predict future climate and have contributed increasingly to successive IPCC reports.

In this session, we welcome contributions ranging from proxy data to model results aimed at reconstructing and understanding Earth’s climate state and its dynamics over the past 100 million years. We welcome submissions across a wide range of time scales, including those investigating long-term change, Milankovitch cyclicity and/or short-lived events, from the Cretaceous to the Present. Submissions working on chronological or stratigraphic fundamentals underpinning this interval are also encouraged. We invite contributions seeking to better assess Earth system sensitivity in past climate states by reconstructing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global or regional temperatures. As analogues of biodiversity in a warmer world can only be found in the past, we encourage submissions on marine and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics and disruptions in warmer worlds.

The session intends to bring together the diverse community studying the nature of the warm climate states found in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic. This session also aims to bring together the paleoclimate data and modelling communities to evaluate lessons learned from the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (https://www.deepmip.org/) and explore future directions moving forward. We consciously welcome a broad range of approaches to facilitate synergies to learn from past warm climate conditions to navigate into the future warmer world.

Co-organized by BG5/SSP4
Convener: Thomas Westerhold | Co-conveners: Anna Nele Meckler, Dan Lunt, Gordon InglisECSECS, Eleni Anagnostou, Anna Joy Drury, Victoria TaylorECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
CL1.1.5 EDI

Joint topics
Topic 1. Stable and radiogenic isotopic records have been successfully used for
investigating various settings, such as palaeosols, lacustrine, loess, caves, peatlands, bogs, arid, evaporative and marine environments. We are
looking for contributions using isotopes along with mineralogical, sedimentological, biological, paleontological and chemical records in
order to unravel the past and present climate and environmental changes.
The session invites contributions presenting an applied as well as a
theoretical approach. We welcome papers related to both reconstructions
(at various timescales) as well as on fractionation factors, measurement, methods, proxy calibration, and verification.

Topic 2
Sedimentary records preserve information on their environments at the time of deposition. Such information can be accessed using a growing number of isotopic proxies. Modern sediments are crucial to calibrate such proxies and allow the sedimentary rock record to be deciphered, providing important clues to better understand the future response of the Earth system under climate change.

The sediments deposited along the transitional zone (fluvial system, continental shelf, and continental slope) to the final sink in the deep-marine basin accumulate chemical information on changes in the atmosphere, on land, and in the oceans. Specifically, changes in climate and environmental conditions, such as weathering, oxygenation, bio-productivity, and ocean circulation, can lead to variable element accumulation, isotope mixing, and isotopic fractionation.

We welcome contributions that reconstruct changes in climate and environmental conditions using sediments and sedimentary rocks from the recent to the ancient past (e.g., Last Glacial Maximum, Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, Great Oxidation Event), using traditional, non-traditional, stable, and radiogenic isotope systems (e.g., Li, Mg, Cr, Fe, Sr, Mo, Nd, Pb, U). To account for the diversity of sedimentary archives, contributions on all types of archives are welcome, from carbonates to siliciclastic muds, and from biogenic to abiotic. We also encourage submissions relating to field or laboratory calibrations of these isotopic proxies.

Co-organized by BG2/SSP4
Convener: Ana-Voica Bojar | Co-conveners: Christophe Lecuyer, Andrzej Pelc, Octavian G. Duliu, Rocio Jaimes-GutierrezECSECS, Sylvie BruggmannECSECS, Michael E. Böttcher
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
BG5.3 EDI

This session aims to bring together a diverse group of scientists who are interested in how life and planetary processes have co-evolved over geological time. This includes studies of how paleoenvironments have contributed to biological evolution and vice-versa, linking fossil records to paleo-Earth processes and the influence of tectonic and magmatic processes on the evolution of life. As an inherently multi-disciplinary subject, we aspire to better understand the complex coupling of biogeochemical cycles and life, the links between mass extinctions and their causal geological events and how fossil records shed light on ecosystem drivers over deep time. We aim to understand our planet and its biosphere through both observation- and modelling-based studies.

Co-organized by CL1.1/GD3/SSP4
Convener: Khushboo GurungECSECS | Co-conveners: Julian RoggerECSECS, Emily Mitchell, Attila BalázsECSECS, Svetlana Botsyun, William MatthaeusECSECS, Katarzyna Marcisz
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST)
 
Room 2.95
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X1
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 16:15
Fri, 14:00
GD3.1 EDI

The first half of Earth’s history (Hadean to Paleoproterozoic) laid the foundations for the planet we know today. But how and why it differed and how and why it evolved remain enduring questions.
In this session, we encourage the presentation of new approaches that improve our understanding on the formation, structure, and evolution of the early Earth ranging from the mantle and lithosphere to the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere, and interactions between these reservoirs.
This session aims to bring together scientists from a large range of disciplines to provide an interdisciplinary and comprehensive overview of the field. This includes, but is not limited to, fields such as early mantle dynamics, the formation, evolution and destruction of the early crust and lithosphere, early surface environments and the evolution of the early biosphere, mineral deposits, and how possible tectonic regimes impacted across the early Earth system.

Co-organized by BG7/CL1.1/GMPV10/TS8
Convener: Ria Fischer | Co-conveners: Peter Cawood, Jeroen van Hunen, Bing XiaECSECS, Desiree Roerdink
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room -2.21
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X2
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Thu, 16:15

CL1.2 – Past Climate - Last ~2.6 Ma

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Jan-Berend Stuut, Carole Nehme

CL1.2.1 EDI

This session aims to place recently observed climate change in a long-term perspective by highlighting the importance of paleoclimate research spanning the past 2000 years. We invite presentations that provide insights into past climate variability, over decadal to millennial timescales, from different paleoclimate archives (ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial records, historical archives and more). In particular, we are focussing on quantitative temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions, and reconstructions of large-scale modes of climate variability from local to global scales. This session also encourages presentations on the attribution of past climate variability to external drivers or internal climate processes, data syntheses, model-data comparison exercises, proxy system modelling, and novel approaches to producing multi-proxy climate field reconstructions such as data assimilation or machine learning.

Co-sponsored by PAGES 2k
Convener: Andrea Seim | Co-conveners: Hugo Beltrami, Daniel BoatengECSECS, Stefan Bronnimann, Jun Hu
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
CL1.2.2 EDI

Tree rings are one of nature’s most versatile archives, providing insight into past environmental conditions at annual and intra-annual resolution and from local to global scales. Besides being valued proxies for historical climate, tree rings are also important indicators of plant physiological responses to changing environments and of long-term ecological processes. In this broad context we welcome contributions using one or more of the following approaches to either study the impact of environmental change on the growth and physiology of trees and forest ecosystems, or to assess and reconstruct past environmental change: (i) dendrochronological methods including studies based on tree-ring width, MXD or Blue Intensity, (ii) stable isotopes in tree rings and related plant compounds, (iii) dendrochemistry, (iv) quantitative wood anatomy, (v) ecophysiological data analyses, and (vi) mechanistic modeling, all across temporal and spatial scales.

Co-organized by BG3
Convener: Elisabet Martinez-SanchoECSECS | Co-conveners: Kerstin Treydte, Flurin Babst, Jernej JevšenakECSECS, Pieter Zuidema
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 14:00
Mon, 16:15
CL1.2.3

Speleothems are key terrestrial archives of regional to global paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes on sub-seasonal to orbital scales. They provide high temporally resolved records which can be accurately and precisely dated using a variety of proxies such as stable O and C isotopes and trace elements. Recent efforts have seen the rise in more non-traditional proxies such as fluid inclusion water isotopes, organic biomarkers, pollen, dead carbon fraction etc.. This advancement towards quantitative reconstructions of past precipitation, temperature, or other environmental variables and climate patterns, are key variables for data-model comparisons and evaluation. Beyond this, caves and karst areas additionally host an enormous suite of other valuable archives such as cave ice, cryogenic carbonates, clastic sediments, tufa, or travertine sequences which complement the terrestrial palaeorecord, and are often associated with important fossils or archaeological findings.
This session aims to integrate recent developments in the field, and invites submissions from a broad range of cave- and karst-related studies from orbital to sub-seasonal timescales.
In particular we welcome contributions from:
(1) (quantitative) reconstructions of past climatic and environmental variables to reconstruct precipitation, vegetation, fire frequency, temperature etc. across different climate zones,
(2) field- and lab-based developments of process-based methods to improve our application of proxy variables,
(3) process and proxy-system model studies as well as integrated research developing and using databases such as SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and AnaLysis).
We further welcome advancements in related and/or interdisciplinary areas, which pave the way towards robust (quantitative) interpretations of proxy time series, improve the understanding of proxy-relevant processes, or enable regional-to-global and seasonal-to-orbital scale analyses of the relationships between proxies and environmental parameters. In addition, research contributing to current international co-ordinated activities, such as the PAGES working group on Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) and others are welcome.

Co-sponsored by PAGES
Convener: Sophie WarkenECSECS | Co-conveners: Laura EndresECSECS, Rieneke WeijECSECS, Ezgi Unal Imer, Monika MarkowskaECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 14:00
CL1.2.4 EDI

The half-century since the first deep ice core drilling at Camp Century, Greenland, has seen increased spatial coverage of polar ice cores, as well as extensive development in methods of ice sample extraction, analysis and interpretation. This growth and innovation continues as we address pressing scientific questions surrounding past climate dynamics, environmental variability and glaciological phenomena. New challenges include the retrieval of old, highly thinned ice, interpretation of altered chemical signals, and the integration of chemical proxies into earth system models. We invite contributions reporting the state-of-the-art in ice coring sciences, including drilling and processing, dating, analytical techniques, results and interpretations of ice core records from polar ice sheets and mid- and low-latitude glaciers, remote and autonomous methods of surveying ice stratigraphy, proxy system modelling and related earth system modelling. We particularly encourage submissions from early career researchers from across the broad international ice core science community. This session is supported by the European DEEPICE training network for early career scientists.

Convener: Rachael Rhodes | Co-conveners: Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Lison SoussaintjeanECSECS, Piers LarkmanECSECS, Thomas Blunier
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 10:45
Thu, 10:45
CL1.2.5

Over the last 1.5 Myr, the rhythm of Earth’s glaciations changed from a 40 kyr to a 100 kyr periodicity, crossing the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). This transition does not follow directly from Milankovitch theory. Against the background of ongoing deep ice drilling projects and blue ice studies in Antarctica, we encourage the broader paleo community to show their latest results on the glacial dynamics of the 40 kyr and 100 kyr worlds, and the MPT. We invite presentations on proxy studies of paleo-environmental conditions and processes, as well as model studies providing insight into the dynamics and drivers of the Earth climate system . This session is supported by Beyond EPICA-Oldest Ice and COLDEX.

Including Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture by Peter U. Clark
Co-organized by CR5
Convener: Eric Wolff | Co-conveners: Christo Buizert, Jenn Campos-AyalaECSECS, Margareta Hansson, Inès OllivierECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–17:15 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Tue, 16:15
CL1.2.6 EDI

Feedbacks within the Earth’s system involving the global carbon cycle, ice-sheet dynamics and oceanic circulation played a significant role in shaping the timing and amplitude of Quaternary deglaciations and their preceding glacial periods, as well as abrupt millennial-scale variability within the Last Glacial Cycle. For example, the deep ocean likely played a key role in modulating changes in atmospheric CO2; and ice sheet evolution exerts a strong control on atmosphere and ocean circulation. However, the precise combination of mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for glacial-interglacial and millennial-scale climate transitions remains unresolved. This session invites contributions from studies that provide an improved understanding of the processes and feedbacks occurring during glacial periods and deglaciations during the past 2.6 Ma. This includes new palaeo records, data syntheses and numerical simulations examining climate, the global carbon cycle, continental ice-sheets, ocean circulation, and sea-level.

Co-organized by CR1/OS1
Convener: Ruza Ivanovic | Co-conveners: Markus Adloff, Etienne LegrainECSECS, Svetlana RadionovskayaECSECS, Himadri SainiECSECS, Madison ShankleECSECS
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
CL1.2.7 EDI | PICO

Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) events, which are abrupt warming episodes followed by gradual cooling during the last glacial period. New modelling studies and paleoclimate records have greatly advanced efforts to piece together the whys and hows of D-O events, yet we still lack a definitive explanation for them. The prevalent hypothesis is that D-O events are a result of variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) but many uncertainties remain about the role of interactions and feedbacks between various components of the Earth System in shaping the magnitude and duration of D-O events. A key question, still unanswered, is whether D-O events are triggered by noise, external forcing, or by bifurcations in the underlying dynamical system.
Trying to understand whether anthropogenic climate change could push the climate system over similar tipping points is an important motivation for studying D-O events. This session will provide an opportunity to assess recent progress in documenting observed climate changes during D-O events, and to evaluate the state of knowledge about model behaviour during these abrupt events. We encourage both studies based on proxy data, those using simple model, intermediate or advanced models to submit abstracts with the aim to facilitate the most comprehensive overview of DO events.

Convener: Irene Malmierca ValletECSECS | Co-conveners: Louise Sime, Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Nils WeitzelECSECS
PICO
| Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 5
Mon, 16:15
CL1.2.9 EDI

The Arctic and Antarctic realms have experienced significant changes over the observational era. The polar and subpolar climates of both hemispheres are crucial for the Earth’s energy and water budget and the observed changes can have detrimental effects on the unique ecosystems and with it the marine carbon cycle. The changes observed in the Arctic and Antarctic are thus active at regional to global scales. The myriad of processes, operate on a wide spectrum of time scales and they require crucial information from various research fields to understand the mechanisms, drivers, and consequences of Arctic and Antarctic changes across the land-ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere continuum.
In this session, we invite contributions from a range of disciplines and across time scales, including observational (remote and in-situ) data, historical data, geological archives and proxy data, model simulations and forecasts, for the past, present and future climate. The common denominator of these studies will be their focus on a better understanding of multi-scale mechanisms that drive Arctic and Antarctic changes and their impact on local and global climate and society. Furthermore, the session aims to discuss ongoing efforts to improve climate predictions at high latitudes at various time scales (e.g., usage of additional observations for initialization, improved initialization methods, improved parameterizations, novel verification approaches, etc.) and potential teleconnections of high latitude climate with lower latitudes. Additionally, of particular interests are high-resolution modelling endeavours, exploration of feedbacks and tipping points, attribution analyses, and studies of long-term polar climate change across the whole spectrum of possible future emission scenarios as well as the question of what past warm climates can teach us about future polar and subpolar climate. We also aim to link high-latitude climate variability, change, predictions, and projections to potential ecological and socio-economic impacts and encourage submissions on such topics.

Convener: Henrieka DetlefECSECS | Co-conveners: Neven-Stjepan Fuckar, Richard Bintanja, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Anne de Vernal, Christoph BöttnerECSECS, Joanna DaviesECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 16:15
Fri, 10:45
CL1.2.10 EDI

Paleoclimate archives provide unique insights into the links between atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere during abrupt climatic changes. Understanding these interactions helps to better forecast the effects of potential future changes. Whilst past climate reconstructions serve as important benchmarks to test climate models, uncertainties due to varying proxy sensitivities and imprecise chronologies may undermine the determination of environmental drivers, feedbacks, and threshold mechanisms involved in abrupt climate events. The INTIMATE network aims to reduce uncertainties in paleoclimate proxy records and their chronological frameworks to improve inter-site comparisons of ice, marine, and terrestrial records and expose processes that link these systems.

This session invites contributions that focus on the identification, quantification, and modelling of abrupt climatic changes, associated ice-ocean-atmosphere processes, and/or the impact of these changes on ecosystem, landscape, and societies during the INTIMATE timeframe (~125 kyrs to present). This session has a particular interest in novel proxy-based reconstructions, state-of-the-art chronological techniques and statistical approaches, and innovative model-generated climate records that allow new insights into rapid (natural) climate variability and spatiotemporal differences.

INTIMATE is an open paleoclimate research community that facilitates the reconstruction of Quaternary climate changes by INTegrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial paleoclimate records. This session intends to bring these scientists together and serve as a hub for them. There will be a social/networking event associated to this session.

Co-organized by SSP2
Convener: Rick Hennekam | Co-conveners: Celia Martin-Puertas, Cecile Blanchet, Daniela J. M. MüllerECSECS, Florian Adolphi
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 16:15
Fri, 10:45
CL1.2.13 EDI

Modelling past climate states, and the transient evolution of Earth’s climate remains challenging. Time periods such as the Paleocene, Eocene, Pliocene, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum or the mid-Holocene span across a vast range of climate conditions. At times, these lie far outside the bounds of the historical period that most models are designed and tuned to reproduce. However, our ability to predict future climate conditions and potential pathways to them is dependent on our models' abilities to reproduce just such phenomena. Thus, our climatic and environmental history is ideally suited to thoroughly test and evaluate models against data, so they may be better able to simulate the present and make future climate projections.

We invite contributions on palaeoclimate-specific model development, model simulations and model-data comparison studies. Simulations may be targeted to address specific questions or follow specified protocols (as in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – PMIP or the Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project – DeepMIP). They may include anything between time-slice equilibrium experiments to long transient climate simulations (e.g. transient simulations covering the entire glacial cycle as per the goal of the PalMod project) with timescales of processes ranging from synoptic scales to glacial cycles and beyond. Comparisons may include past, historical as well as future simulations and focus on comparisons of mean states, gradients, circulation or modes of variability using reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, vegetation or tracer species (e.g. δ18O, δD or Pa/Th).

Evaluations of results from the latest phase of PMIP4-CMIP6 are particularly encouraged. However, we also solicit comparisons of different models (comprehensive GCMs, isotope-enabled models, EMICs and/or conceptual models) between different periods, or between models and data, including an analysis of the underlying mechanisms as well as contributions introducing novel model or experimental setups.

Convener: Elisa ZieglerECSECS | Co-conveners: Kira Rehfeld, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Sam Sherriff-TadanoECSECS, Brooke SnollECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 16:15
CL1.2.14 EDI

As the Earth's climate continues to change, rising temperatures and prolonged (seasonal) dry conditions are impacting vegetation and wildfire dynamics. Recent decades have witnessed an increase in the intensity, extent, and frequency of wildfires in fire-adapted regions and areas historically less prone to fires are now experiencing such events. Our understanding of vegetation and fire dynamics from in-situ observations and remote sensing is primarily limited to the past few decades. Palaeoclimate research gives insights into a wide range of interactions between climate, vegetation, and wildfires predating human land management. Documenting past vegetation and wildfire changes and inferring drivers and dynamics is of utmost importance for understanding ongoing and future changes of climate and continental ecosystems. Recent years have seen an increasing number of detailed reconstructions and significant improvement in model performance that allow fresh insights into spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystems in response to climatic perturbations. Earth system models are increasingly used to understand the complex interactions between the biosphere and physical and biogeochemical components of the Earth system.

This session invites contributions on modern approaches to understand vegetation and wildfire dynamics during the Quaternary and their interactions with climate on seasonal to orbital timescales. These include but are not limited to (a) regional and global-scale reconstructions of vegetation cover and composition from paleontological and geochemical data, (b) the development and application of innovative proxies and archives, (c) Earth system model simulations of various time intervals, (d) studies combining data and models, and (e) proxy system modeling and novel statistical methods to constrain vegetation and wildfire dynamics and their drivers. We also welcome contributions related to technical and analytical advancements in organic and inorganic geochemical analyses, and in-situ calibration studies. Special attention is given to studies focusing on currently understudied regions and time intervals, and research that has the potential to inform future land management policies.

Co-organized by BG5
Convener: Nils WeitzelECSECS | Co-conveners: Yuval BurstynECSECS, Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Cameron de WetECSECS, Zhao WangECSECS, Anne Dallmeyer, Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
GM10.4 EDI

Mountain and ice sheet glaciations provide an invaluable record for past and present climate change. However, varying geomorphological process-systems, specific glaciological conditions and topography can make regional, intra-hemispheric and global correlations challenging. This problem is further enhanced by ongoing specialisation within the scientific community. Despite such challenges glacier and ice sheet reconstructions remains a crucial paleo-environmental proxy.

The primary aim of this session is to evaluate the potential of mountain and ice sheet glaciation records and stimulate further research in this important field. Contributions on all relevant aspects are welcomed, for example: (a) glacial landforms and reconstruction of past glaciers and ice sheets, (b) dating techniques and geochronology compilations, (c) ice dynamics and paleoclimatic interpretations, or (d) impacts of ecosystems and human evolution/society. We would particularly like to invite contributions addressing regional and hemispheric connections, issues, and advances. The temporal scale of the session will encompass Early Pleistocene glaciations through to the Last Glacial Maximum, and Holocene/modern glaciers. In the past, this session has attracted contributions from a wide range of locations and a diversity in methodological approaches. It has become a platform for on-going collaborative research on mountain glaciations where people are given the opportunity to exchange ideas and expertise.

ECR keynote talks:

Block 1, Mountain glacier reconstruction
Lukas Rettig - A glacier-based reconstruction of the Last Glacial Maximum climate in the southern European Alps.

Block 2, Ice sheet reconstruction
Gwyneth Rivers - Using sediment facies & ground penetrating radar profiles to investigate the internal architecture and genesis of De Geer moraines.

Co-organized by CL1.2/CR4
Convener: Danni Pearce | Co-conveners: Rachel OienECSECS, Benjamin BoyesECSECS, Giovanni Monegato, Helen DulferECSECS, Jürgen Reitner, Stefan Winkler
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST)
 
Room G1
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X3
Orals |
Tue, 10:45
Mon, 10:45

CL2 – Present Climate – historical and direct observations period

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Irka Hajdas, Martin Wild

CL2.1

The radiation budget of the Earth is a key determinant for the genesis and evolution of climate on our planet and provides the primary energy source for life. Anthropogenic interference with climate occurs first of all through a perturbation of the Earth radiation balance. We invite observational and modelling papers on all aspects of radiation in the climate system. A specific aim of this session is to bring together newly available information on the spatial and temporal variation of radiative and energy fluxes at the surface, within the atmosphere and at the top of atmosphere. This information may be obtained from direct measurements, satellite-derived products, climate modelling as well as process studies. Scales considered may range from local radiation and energy balance studies to continental and global scales. In addition, related studies on the spatial and temporal variation of cloud properties, albedo, water vapour and aerosols, which are essential for our understanding of radiative forcings, feedbacks, and related climate change, are encouraged. Studies focusing on the impact of radiative forcings and feedbacks on the various components of the climate system, such as on the hydrological cycle, on the cryosphere or on the biosphere and related carbon cycle, are also much appreciated.

Including CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
Co-organized by AS3
Convener: Martin Wild | Co-conveners: Jörg Trentmann, Maria Z. Hakuba, Paul Stackhouse
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 10:45
Fri, 10:45
CL2.3 EDI

Recent extreme events and climate conditions unprecedented in the observational record have had high-impact consequences globally. Some of these events would have arguably been nearly impossible without human-made climate change and broke records by large margins. Furthermore, compound behaviour and cascading effects and risks are becoming evident. Finally, continuing warming does not only increase the frequency and intensity of events like these, or other until yet unprecedented extremes, it also potentially increases the risk of crossing tipping points and triggering abrupt changes. In order to increase preparedness for high impact climate events, it is important to develop methods and models that are able to represent these events and their impacts, and to better understand how to reduce the risks.

To provide more actionable information for risk assessments, climate storylines have become a popular approach to complement probabilistic event attribution and climate projection. According to the latest IPCC-WG1 report, “the term storyline is used both in connection to scenarios or to describe plausible trajectories of weather and climate conditions or events”. Various types of storylines exist, such as event-based storylines, dynamical storylines of physically plausible climate change, or pseudo-global-warming experiments. This session aims to bring together the latest research on modelling, understanding, development of storylines and managing plausible past and future climate outcomes, extreme and low-probability events, and their impacts. Studies can range across spatial and temporal scales, and can cover compound, cascading, and connected extremes, worst-case scenarios, event-based and dynamical storylines, as well as the effect of tipping points and abrupt changes driven by climate change, societal response, adaptation limits, or other mechanisms (e.g., volcanic eruption).

We welcome a variety of methods aiming to quantify and understand high-impact climate events in present and future climates and, ultimately, provide actionable climate information. We invite work including but not limited to the variety of storyline approaches, model experiments and intercomparisons, insights from paleo archives, climate projections (including large ensembles, and unseen events), and attribution studies.

The session is further informed by the World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activities on Safe Landing Pathways and Understanding High-Risk Events.

Public information:

This session brings together the latest research on exceptional weather and high-impact climate events. It is a follow up from previous year’s successful sessions CL3.2.8 on low-likelihood high-impact events and CL4.8 on storyline approaches. The session is further informed by the World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activities on Safe Landing Pathways and Understanding High-Risk Events. Our aim is to make preparedness to exceptional weather extremes standard practice in the transition to a climate resilient society: https://unseennetwork.org/.

Co-organized by AS1/HS13/NH11
Convener: Timo KelderECSECS | Co-conveners: Marylou AthanaseECSECS, Erich Fischer, Patrick Ludwig, Henrique Moreno Dumont GoulartECSECS, Laura Suarez-GutierrezECSECS, Karin van der Wiel
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room E2
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 14:00
CL2.4

ENSO and its interactions with other tropical basins are the dominant source of interannual climate variability in the tropics and across the globe. Understanding the dynamics, predictability, and impacts of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, and anticipating their future changes are thus of vital importance for society. This session invites contributions regarding all aspects of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, including: dynamics, multi-scale interactions; decadal and paleo variability; theoretical approaches; ENSO diversity; global teleconnections; impacts on climate, society and ecosystems; seasonal forecasting and climate change projections of tropical mean state changes, ENSO and its tropical basins interactions. Studies aimed at evaluating and improving model simulations of ENSO, the tropical mean state and the tropical basins interactions basin are especially welcomed.

Co-organized by AS1/NP2/OS1
Convener: Nicola MaherECSECS | Co-conveners: Dietmar Dommenget, Yann Planton, Sarah Ineson, Fred Kucharski
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
CL2.5 EDI

Urban areas play a fundamental role in local- to large-scale planetary processes, via modification of heat, moisture, and chemical budgets. With urbanisation continuing globally it is essential to recognize the consequences of converting natural landscapes into the built environment. Given the capabilities of cities to serve as first responders to global change, considerable efforts are currently dedicated across many cities to monitoring and understanding urban atmospheric dynamics. Further, various adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed to offset impacts of rapidly expanding urban environments and influences of large-scale greenhouse gas emissions are developed, implemented, and evaluated.

This session solicits submissions from the observational, modelling, and science-based tool development communities. Submissions are welcome that cover urban atmospheric and landscape dynamics, urban-climate conditions under global to regional climate change, processes and impacts due to urban-induced climate change, the efficacy of various strategies to reduce such impacts, and human-biometeorological investigations in urban settings. We also welcome techniques highlighting how cities use novel science data products and tools, including those from humanities and social sciences, that facilitate planning and policies on urban adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of climate change. Emerging topics such as citizen science, crowdsourcing, machine learning, and urban-climate informatics are highly encouraged.

Co-organized by AS4
Convener: Daniel FennerECSECS | Co-conveners: Gaby LangendijkECSECS, Rafiq Hamdi, Julia Hidalgo, Ariane Middel
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room F1, Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 14:00
CL2.6 EDI | PICO

Global and regional climate monitoring is essential for tracking and recording the state of the Earth’s climate. Sustained monitoring provides an observational basis for our understanding of climate change and variability and allow current events to be placed into the context of the past. Climate monitoring includes assessment of all aspects of the climate system across the atmosphere, land, oceans, and cryosphere. It draws upon information from in situ and satellite observational data products as well as dynamical reanalyses. It includes assessment of spatial and temporal variability and change, climate extremes, and derived global and regional climate indices and diagnostic series.

This session welcomes contributions including:
- Advances in observational climate and reanalysis products that underpin global and regional monitoring in the context of past changes.
- Applications of observations and reanalyses in global and regional assessments of climate change and variability.
- Studies that provide a robust view of current state of the climate and its uncertainty, for example using a range of data sources and/or climate variables.
- Communication of climate monitoring programmes and of activities to communicate information on the state of the climate.

Convener: Colin Morice | Co-conveners: Gerard van der Schrier, Samantha Burgess, Uwe Pfeifroth, Agnieszka Faulkner
PICO
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 5
Mon, 08:30
CL2.7

Phenological changes induced by ongoing climate change are affecting species, ecosystems, and even the global climate by altering species performance, species interactions (potential mismatches and new opportunities in the food web), and water and carbon cycles. Observations of plant and animal phenology as well as remote sensing and modeling studies document complex interactions and raise many open questions about the future sustainability of species and ecosystems. In this session we invite all contributions that address seasonality changes based on plant and animal phenological observations, pollen monitoring, historical documentary sources, or seasonality measurements using climate data, remote sensing, flux measurements, modeling studies or experiments. We also welcome contributions addressing cross-disciplinary perspectives and international collaborations and program-building initiatives including citizen science networks and data analyses from these networks.
This session is organized by a consortium representing the International Society of Biometeorology (Phenology Commission), the Pan-European Phenology Network - PEP725, the Swiss Academy of Science SCNAT, the TEMPO French Phenology Network and the USA National Phenology Network.

Convener: Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri | Co-conveners: Yann Vitasse, Marie Keatley, Hans Ressl, Christina Koppe
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 16:15
AS1.13 EDI

Clouds play an important role in the Polar climate due to their interaction with radiation and their role in the hydrological cycle linking poleward water vapour transport with precipitation. Cloud and precipitation properties depend on the atmospheric dynamics and moisture sources and transport, as well as on aerosol particles, which can act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. These processes are complex and are not well represented in the models. While measurements of cloud and precipitation microphysical properties in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are challenging, they are highly needed to evaluate and improve cloud processes representation in the models used for polar and global climate and cryosphere projections.

This session aims at bringing together researchers using observational and/or modeling approaches (at various scales) to improve our understanding of polar tropospheric clouds, precipitation, and related mechanisms and impacts. Contributions are invited on various relevant processes including (but not limited to):
- Drivers of cloud/precipitation microphysics at high latitudes,
- Sources of cloud nuclei both at local and long range,
- Linkages of polar clouds/precipitation to the moisture sources and transport, including including extreme transport events (e.g., atmospheric rivers, moisture intrusions),
- Relationship of moisture/cloud/precipitation processes to the atmospheric dynamics, ranging from synoptic and meso-scale processes to teleconnections and climate indices,
- Interactions between clouds and radiation, including impacts on the surface energy balance,
- Impacts that the clouds/precipitation in the Polar Regions have on the polar and global climate system, surface mass and energy balance, sea ice and ecosystems.

Papers including new methodologies specific to polar regions are encouraged, such as (i) improving polar cloud/precipitation parameterizations in atmospheric models, moisture transport events detection and attribution methods specifically in the high latitudes, and (ii) advancing observations of polar clouds and precipitation. We would like to emphasize collaborative observational and modeling activities, such as the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), Polar-CORDEX, the (AC)3 project on Arctic Amplification, MOSAiC and other measurement campaigns in the Arctic and Southern Ocean/Antarctica and encourage related contributions.

Co-organized by CL2/CR7
Convener: Irina V. Gorodetskaya | Co-conveners: Tom Lachlan-Cope, Susanne Crewell, Florian Sauerland, Maximilian Maahn
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.11/12
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
AS2.2 EDI

Urban Boundary Layer (UBL) Dynamics is determined by city morphology, latent and sensible heat fluxes (including anthropogenic heat), and interactions with rural surroundings. The physical processes in such UBLs are characterized by great strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and have the potential to affect societally relevant issues like human thermal comfort, air quality, aviation operations and energy supply.
The goal of this session is to highlight research work and promote discussions on this often underrepresented aspect of urban meteorology and climatology. Hence, we invite and encourage contributions on the following topics:

- Numerical modeling of urban boundary layer dynamics at all scales (from regional to street level)
- Observational methods in the UBL: field campaigns and remote sensing (e.g., flux towers, LIDAR, drones)
- Wind tunnel experiments
- Interaction between local circulations (e.g., UHIC, thermal circulation in complex terrain, sea/lake breeze) and the built environment
- Role of turbulent fluxes and impact of turbulence on wind flow
- Intra-canopy and canyon ventilation
- Impact of urban vegetation (e.g., street trees) on wind flow
- Urban air quality (e.g., pollutant transport and dispersion)
- Urban wind energy potential

Co-organized by CL2/ERE2/NP6
Convener: Aldo BrandiECSECS | Co-conveners: Andrea ZonatoECSECS, Beatriz SanchezECSECS, Francisco Salamanca, Alberto Martilli
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
AS3.10

Clouds and aerosols play a key role in climate and weather-related processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. An initial forcing due to changes in the aerosol concentration and composition may also be enhanced or dampened by feedback processes such as modified cloud dynamics, surface exchange or atmospheric circulation patterns. This session aims to link research activities in observations and modelling of radiative, dynamical and microphysical processes of clouds, aerosols, and their interactions. Studies addressing several aspects of the aerosol-cloud-radiation-precipitation system are encouraged.

There are several other related sessions on aerosols, clouds, radiation and precipitation processes focused on specific themes (see links below)

Topics covered in this session include, but are not limited to:
- Cloud and aerosol macro- and microphysical properties, precipitation formation mechanisms and their role in the energy budget
- Observational constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions
- Use of observational simulators to constrain aerosols, clouds and their radiative effects in models
- Experimental cloud and aerosol studies
- High-resolution modelling, including large-eddy simulation and cloud-resolving models
- Parameterization of cloud and aerosol microphysics/dynamics/radiation processes

Co-organized by CL2
Convener: Edward Gryspeerdt | Co-conveners: Annica Ekman, Benjamin HeutteECSECS, Geeta Persad, Ruth PriceECSECS, Anna Possner, Jennie L. Thomas
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST)
 
Room F2
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
BG1.1 EDI

Fire is the primary terrestrial ecosystem disturbance globally and a critical Earth system process. Fire-related research is rapidly expanding across disciplines and sectors, reflecting the pressing need to deepen our understanding of fire phenomena. This need will likely grow as future fire activity increases. This session invites contributions that investigate the role of fire within the Earth system across any temporal and spatial scale, using statistical (including AI) and process-based models, field and laboratory observations, proxy records, remote sensing, and data-model fusion techniques. We strongly encourage abstracts that deepen our comprehension of fire's interactions with: (1) weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and circulation, (2) land physical properties, (3) vegetation composition and structure and biogeochemical cycle, (4) cryosphere elements and processes (such as permafrost, sea ice), and (5) human health, land management, conservation, and livelihoods. Moreover, we welcome submissions that address: (6) spatial and temporal changes in fire in the past, present, and future, 7) fire products and models, and their validation, error/bias assessment and correction, as well as (8) analytical tools designed to enhance situational awareness for fire practitioners and to improve fire early warning systems.

Co-organized by AS3/CL2/NH7
Convener: Fang Li | Co-conveners: Antonio Girona-GarcíaECSECS, Angelica Feurdean, Renata Libonati, Rebecca ScholtenECSECS, Sander Veraverbeke
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room C
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X1
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X1
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
CR7.7 EDI

The interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and ice play an important role in shaping the polar climates. However, existing knowledge of the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical processes that underly the exchanges of mass, energy and momentum between these components remain poorly understood.

Closing knowledge gaps on the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and ice can considerably advance our ability to understand recent changes, and anticipate future changes in the Arctic and Antarctic climate systems. In particular, closing these knowledge gaps will improve our ability to represent them in our modelling systems and increase confidence in projections of future climate change in the polar regions.

This session will highlight 1) recent advances in our knowledge of atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions and 2) new and emerging tools and datasets that can close these knowledge gaps.

We welcome observational and numerical modelling studies of physical and chemical atmospheric and ocean processes that underly interactions in the coupled climate system in both the Arctic and Antarctic. This includes but is not limited to:

Cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions, and their role in the coupled system;
Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) dynamics and its interactions with the ice surface;
Sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, e.g. wind driven sea-ice drift, snow on ice;
Upper ocean mixing processes;
Sea ice biogeochemistry and interactions at interfaces with sea ice;
Snow on ice and it’s role in the coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere system;
Surface energy budget of the coupled system, including contributions of ABL-dependent turbulent fluxes, clouds and radiative fluxes, precipitation and factors controlling snow/ice albedo.
Presentations showcasing recent or emerging tools, observational campaigns, or remote sensing datasets are encouraged.

Co-organized by AS4/CL2
Convener: Priscilla Mooney | Co-conveners: Konstanze HaubnerECSECS, Risto Makkonen, Chen ZhaoECSECS, Jennie L. Thomas, Jan Landwehrs, Christoph KittelECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 10:45
GM7.3 EDI | PICO

Currently arid to sub-humid regions are home to >40% of the world’s population, and many prehistoric and historic cultures developed in these regions. Due to the high sensitivity of drylands to also small-scale environmental changes and anthropogenic activities, ongoing geomorphological processes under the intensified climatic and human pressure of the Anthropocene, but also the Late Quaternary geomorphological and paleoenvironmental evolution as recorded in sediment archives, are becoming increasingly relevant for geological, geomorphological, paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatic and geoarchaeological research. Dryland research is constantly boosted by methodological advances, and especially by emerging linkages with other climatic and geomorphic systems that allow using dryland areas as indicator-regions of global environmental changes.
This session aims to pool contributions dealing with past to recent geomorphological processes and environmental changes spanning the entire Quaternary until today, as well as with all types of sedimentary and morphological archives in dryland areas (dunes, loess, slope deposits, fluvial sediments, alluvial fans, lake and playa sediments, desert pavements, soils, palaeosols etc.) studied on different spatial and temporal scales. Besides case studies on archives and landscapes from individual regions and review studies, cross-disciplinary, methodical and conceptual contributions are especially welcome in this session, e.g., dealing with the special role of aeolian, fluvial, gravitational and biological processes in dryland environments and their preservation in deposits and landforms, the role of such processes for past and present societies, methods to obtain chronological frameworks and process rates, and emerging geo-technologies.

Co-organized by CL2/SSP3/SSS3
Convener: Hans von Suchodoletz | Co-conveners: Janek WalkECSECS, Joel Roskin, Abi StoneECSECS, Markus Fuchs
PICO
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Mon, 08:30
HS2.1.5 EDI

Water is a strategic issue in drylands, where ecosystems and their inhabitants strongly rely on the scarce and often intermittent water availability or its low quality. The characteristics of drylands increase their vulnerability to climate change and susceptibility to the impact of short- to long-term extreme events and processes, such as floods, droughts, and desertification. These events can reshape the landscape through the mobilisation of surface sediments, deposits of which preserve archives of past Earth system states, including changes in the extent of deserts. Over the last century, anthropogenic modifications of all kinds and intensities have affected surface conditions. In drylands and Mediterranean hydrosystems, agricultural water use is constantly increasing threatening the sustainability of the surface and groundwater reservoirs, and their hydrology is then continuously evolving. Nevertheless, the study of hydroclimatic processes in drylands remains at the periphery of many geoscientific fields. A proper understanding of the hydrological, hydrometeorological and (paleo)climatic processes in these regions is a cornerstone to achieving the proposed sustainable development goals we set for the end of this century.

This session welcomes contributions from scientific disciplines addressing any of the drylands' full range of environmental and water-related processes. The purpose is to foster interdisciplinary research and expand knowledge and methods established in individual subdisciplines. We will address hydrological issues across global drylands, and devote a section of our session to a geographical focus on the Mediterranean region to analyse the changes in hydrologic processes and fluxes unique to that region.

Co-organized by AS1/CL2/GM7/NH1
Convener: Moshe ArmonECSECS | Co-conveners: Lionel Jarlan, Andries Jan De VriesECSECS, María José PoloECSECS, Pedro AlencarECSECS, Said Khabba, Rodolfo NóbregaECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:35 (CEST)
 
Room 3.16/17, Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–10:05 (CEST)
 
Room 3.16/17
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall A
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall A
Orals |
Wed, 10:45
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
HS7.9 EDI | PICO

Traditionally, hydrologists focus on the partitioning of precipitation water on the surface, into evaporation and runoff, with these fluxes being the input to their hydrological models. However, more than half of the evaporation globally comes back as precipitation on land, ignoring an important feedback of the water cycle if the previous focus applied. Land-use and water-use changes, as well as climate variability and change alter, not only, the partitioning of water but also the atmospheric input of water as precipitation, related with this feedback, at both remote and local scales.

This session aims to:
i. investigate the remote and local atmospheric feedbacks from human interventions such as greenhouse gasses, irrigation, deforestation, and reservoirs on the water cycle, precipitation and climate, based on observations and coupled modelling approaches,
ii. investigate the use of hydroclimatic frameworks such as the Budyko framework to understand the human and climate effects on both atmospheric water input and partitioning,
iii. explore the implications of atmospheric feedbacks on the hydrological cycle for land and water management.

Typically, studies in this session are applied studies using fundamental characteristics of the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle on different scales. These fundamentals include, but are not limited to, atmospheric circulation, humidity, hydroclimate frameworks, residence times, recycling ratios, sources and sinks of atmospheric moisture, energy balance and climatic extremes. Studies may also evaluate different sources of data for atmospheric hydrology and implications for inter-comparison and meta-analysis. For example, observations networks, isotopic studies, conceptual models, Budyko-based hydro climatological assessments, back-trajectories, reanalysis and fully coupled Earth system model simulations.

Co-organized by AS1/CL2
Convener: Lan Wang-ErlandssonECSECS | Co-conveners: Ruud van der EntECSECS, Gonzalo Miguez Macho, Fernando Jaramillo, Christoforos Pappas
PICO
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Wed, 16:15
OS1.10 EDI

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are discrete and prolonged warm ocean extremes that can cause substantial ecological and socio-economic impacts. Warming ocean temperatures due to climate change can be expected to exacerbate the severity of MHWs through the 21st century. Understanding of the physical mechanisms that generate MHWs is important to improving our capacity to forecast them. Meanwhile, gaining a better understanding of the impacts of MHWs on ecosystems is significant for promoting sustainable development in the face of climate change. We welcome abstract submissions across all aspects of marine heatwave research and particularly encourage submissions in the following areas:
• Processes and drivers of MHWs at the surface and subsurface: The role of local drivers and remote forcing in MHW generation and evolution.
• Methods for MHW detection and characterization: Discussion of MHW definition and ecologically based indices.
• MHWs in a changing climate: Projections of MHWs in the future under different scenarios.
• Historical analyses of MHWs: Process understanding of past pronounced MHW events and their impacts.
• MHWs and compound events: Interactions between MHWs and other systems (e.g., cyclonic storms, monsoons, and atmospheric heatwaves) or biogeochemical extremes.
• Ecological, socioeconomic, and biological impacts of MHWs.
• MHW predictability and prediction: Insights from advanced statistical methods, climate models, machine learning, etc.

Co-organized by BG4/CL2
Convener: Ce BianECSECS | Co-conveners: Svenja RyanECSECS, Saurabh RathoreECSECS, Zijie ZhaoECSECS, Neil Holbrook
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST)
 
Room L2
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 16:15
Fri, 14:00

CL3.1 – Future Climate – Climate change: From regional to global

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Irka Hajdas, Gabriele Messori

CL3.1.1 EDI

This session explores climate change, extremes, processes and their impacts at regional to local scales, and the tools employed to investigate these phenomena. In particular, we welcome submissions advancing the state-of-the-art in the development and application of high-resolution models (convection-permitting, grid spacing ≤ 4 km) and high-resolution sub-daily data sets. This also includes high-resolution data sets for the land-surface including urban areas, hydrology, vegetation or similar, and their impacts on local-scale climate change and extremes.

The session aims to bring together, amongst others, numerical modellers, the observational community and CORDEX-FPS participants, with the aim of advancing understanding of the aforementioned topics. Of particular interest are new insights which are revealed through high-spatiotemporal-resolution modelling or data sets. For example: convective extremes, physical mechanisms, fine-scale and feedback processes, differences in climate change signal, scale-dependency of extremes, interactions across scales and land-atmosphere interactions. Further, we welcome studies that explore local scale climate change in a variety of contexts whether they be past, present or future change. Studies that move towards an earth system approach – through incorporating coupled oceans, hydrology or vegetation – are especially encouraged.

Additional topics include, though are not limited to:
-- Mesoscale convective systems and medicanes
-- Event-based case studies (including surrogate climate change experiments or attribution)
-- Approaches for quantifying uncertainty at high resolutions including multi-model ensemble and combined dynamical-statistical approaches such as emulators
-- High-resolution winds and their impacts
-- Convection, energy balance and hydrological cycle including vegetation and cities
-- Model setup and parametrization, including sensitivity to resolution, land surface and dynamics
-- Tropical convection and convective processes at local to regional scale
-- Model evaluation and new evaluation metrics/methods
-- Physical understanding of added value over coarser models
-- Severe storms including supercell thunderstorms and hailstorms
-- The roles of natural and internal variability

Co-organized by AS1
Convener: Merja Tölle | Co-conveners: Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Emanuela Pichelli, Douglas Maraun, Puxi LiECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
CL3.1.3 EDI

Attribution research in the context of climate change investigates the extent to which human influence contributes to changes and events in the climate system and their impacts on natural, managed, and human systems. Disentangling external forcing and climate variability as well as isolating climate change impacts from other drivers is a challenging task engaging various approaches.

More specifically the field of climate change Detection and Attribution (D&A) identifies historical changes over long timescales, typically multi-decadal, of weather and climate as well as their impacts. D&A specifically quantifies the contributions of various external forcings as their signal emerges from internal climate variability. Driven by complex mechanisms, internal variability can itself change under external forcing, complicating D&A analyses and the projection of future changes. Moreover, event attribution (EA) assesses how human-induced climate change is modifying the frequency and/or intensity of weather and climate events (e.g., a heavy-precipitation event, a heatwave), their impacts (e.g., economic loss or loss of life associated with flooding) and/or, in newer framings, impact events (e.g., a crop failure). These and other analyses focusing on attributing impacts combine observations with model-based evidence or process understanding. The attribution of climate change impacts is particularly complex due to the influence of additional non-climatic human influences.

This session highlights recent studies from the broad spectrum of attribution research that address some or all steps of the climate-impact chain from emissions to climate variables, to impacts in natural, managed, and human systems and aims to explore the diversity of methods employed across disciplines and schools of thought. It also covers a broad range of applications, case studies, current challenges of the field, and avenues for expanding the attribution research community.

It specifically also includes studies that focus on separating, quantifying, and understanding internal variability and its changes across timescales as it constitutes a key uncertainty in climate attribution.

Presentations will cover common and new methodologies (improved statistical methods, statistical causality, Artificial Intelligence) using single climate realisations, large ensembles, or other counterfactuals, on single climate variable or compound/cascading events, on impacts on natural, managed, or human systems.

Convener: Sabine UndorfECSECS | Co-conveners: Raul R. WoodECSECS, Sebastian SippelECSECS, Nicola MaherECSECS, Lukas Gudmundsson, Andrea DittusECSECS, Aglae JezequelECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST), 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
CL3.1.6 EDI

Solar Radiation Management (SRM, also known as solar geoengineering or solar climate intervention) proposes to temporarily modify Earth's radiation budget to reduce the effects of climate change in the near term alongside decarbonization. Commonly proposed SRM methods include stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, cirrus cloud thinning, and surface albedo modification. The governance of proposed climate interventions must be grounded in a solid basis of natural science and engineering research which quantifies the feasibility, risks, and benefits of each proposal. Since clouds and aerosols remain large sources of uncertainty in our understanding of the drivers of climate change, accurately describing these climate forcings and their properties will help reduce uncertainties in climate projections, inform local to regional air quality control policies, and better constrain the impacts of SRM strategies.

This session focuses on advancements in the natural science of climate interventions, including climate modelling studies, ecological impacts, experimental results, and observations of natural analogues (e.g., volcanoes, ship tracks). We welcome submissions looking at the mechanisms and quantifying the impacts of cloud- or aerosol-induced changes on the biosphere, where we all live, as well as their feedback to the climate system to better constrain SRM impacts. We also encourage broader scope studies that connect the climatic and ecological impacts with the economic, social, political, or ethical implications of SRM. In particular, we strongly encourage abstracts concerning the impacts on regions that are largely vulnerable to climate change, and underrepresented communities who may be disproportionately affected.

Co-organized by BG1
Convener: Matthew HenryECSECS | Co-conveners: TC ChakrabortyECSECS, chandan sarangi, Gabriel ChiodoECSECS, Isabelle Steinke, Mike O'SullivanECSECS, Claudia WienersECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
OS2.5

With increasing coastal urbanisation and impacts from climate change, there is a pressing need for understanding, monitoring and predicting the environmental conditions and hazards in the global coastal ocean. This challenge requires ocean observing and modelling systems designed to monitor coastal variability at regional to local scales, as well as regional downscaling tailored to include coastal processes absent in the global Earth system models. This session is affiliated with CoastPredict, a UN Ocean Decade endorsed programme dedicated to the design and implementation of an integrated coastal observation and prediction system to support coastal community resilience. With this session we aim to provide a discussion platform around observing, forecasting and projecting coastal processes, from short time scale events to climate projections. We welcome contributions related to:
• Challenges and advances in observing and modelling the global coastal system with high temporal and spatial resolution (e.g. new community science platforms and modelling the coupled coastal system: ocean - atmosphere - hydrology - land – ecosystem - humans system).
• Complementary use of observations and models towards better short-term forecasting and early warnings along the coastal regions; and observing system design experiments focusing on the coastal seas.
• Dynamical and/or statistical downscaling and forecasting methodologies for the coastal ocean including machine learning, bias correction techniques and spectral nudging.
• Uncertainty treatment for short to long-term coastal ocean projections, e.g. ensemble approaches.
• Nature-based solutions for adaptation planning in coastal systems, and coastal carbon dioxide removal for climate mitigation.
• Coastal management, covering the full cycle of transdisciplinary information collection, planning, decision-making, management and monitoring of implementation.

Co-organized by CL3.1
Convener: Anna Katavouta | Co-conveners: Giorgia Verri, Jacopo AlessandriECSECS, Abe WooECSECS, Joseph Ansong
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 14:00
OS1.11 EDI

The oceans are changing rapidly in response to the changing climate manifested in record-breaking temperatures in the North Atlantic, altered ocean currents, and changes in the marine carbon system. Further changes are expected in a warmer future climate. Understanding the mechanisms of oceanic climate change are crucial to develop realistic ocean projections. The latest projections, simulated using the recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6, provide meaningful insights on the ocean circulation responses under various climate change scenarios. These projections are essential to quantify the impacts of oceanic climate change and in developing successful adaptation strategies. This session will bring together people with the common interest of what the future ocean circulation will look like.

We encourage submissions from studies covering global, basin wide, regional, or coastal changes. Topics covering changing ocean circulation and transports, variability and trends, tipping points and extremes, as well as temperature, salinity and biogeochemistry are welcomed. This session is not limited to CMIP analysis but submissions using other modelling datasets and statistical projections are very much encouraged.

Co-organized by CL3.1
Convener: Jennifer Mecking | Co-conveners: René van WestenECSECS, Marius Årthun, Yiwen LiECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room L3
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Thu, 16:15
Fri, 10:45
OS1.1 EDI

The persistent rapid decline of the Arctic sea ice in the last decades is a dramatic indicator of climate change. The Arctic sea ice cover is now thinner, weaker and drifts faster. Extreme air temperatures over land and ocean are more common, contributing to accelerated ice sheet melting and summer sea ice loss in the Kara and Laptev Seas. On land, the permafrost is dramatically thawing, glaciers are disappearing, and forest fires are raging. The ocean is also changing: the volume of freshwater stored in the Arctic has increased as have the inputs of coastal runoff from Siberia and Greenland and the exchanges with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. As the global surface temperature rises, the Arctic Ocean is speculated to become seasonally ice-free by the mid 21st century, which prompts us to revisit our perceptions of the Arctic system as a whole. What could the Arctic Ocean look like in the future? How are the present changes in the Arctic going to affect and be affected by the lower latitudes? What aspects of the changing Arctic should observational, remote sensing and modelling programmes address in priority?
In this session, we invite contributions from a variety of studies on the recent past, present and future Arctic. We encourage submissions examining interactions between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice; on emerging mechanisms and feedbacks in the Arctic; and on how the Arctic influences the global ocean. Submissions taking a cross-disciplinary, system approach and focussing on emerging cryospheric, oceanic and biogeochemical processes and their linkages with land are particularly welcome.
We aim to promote discussions on future plans for Arctic Ocean modelling and measurement strategies, including on constraining models with observations, and encourage submissions on CMIP , as well as on recent observational programs, such as the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), which cosponsors this session.

Co-organized by CL3.1/CR3, co-sponsored by NORP and CliC
Convener: Céline Heuzé | Co-conveners: Morven MuilwijkECSECS, Yufang Ye, Stefanie RyndersECSECS, Vasco MüllerECSECS
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62, Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room E2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Fri, 10:45
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 14:00
NP5.3 | PICO

Successful forecasting of timing and scale of climate- and environment-related hazards could have great impact on everyday life and overall wellbeing of many communities. It can considerably contribute to effective preparedness and mitigation in agriculture, infrastructure, health and related socio-economic areas, as well as in preservation of cultural heritage.

A significant body of empirical work has shown that geophysical variables of importance to real-time forecasting universally pass a critical threshold, amass a combination of critical conditions, and/or exhibit characteristic changes in the tipping elements at both onset and withdrawal of climate and environmental critical phenomena. The combination of physical understanding and effective parameterizations of those changes can assist in development of algorithms that are essential for risk reduction.

The session aims at discussing the concept of real-time forecasting from physical, statistical, and application points of view, with follow-up reporting of the results in a catalog of successful and unsuccessful predictions. It is mainly (but not solely) focused on approaches based on or inspired by concepts from complex systems sciences like scaling, universality, complex network analysis and physics-informed machine learning.

The session will include forecasts of different phenomena and forecasting horizons, slow or fast onset, and varied intensity and impact. We invite forecasters to submit their predictions of events at varied temporal and spatial scale, from short-term regional hazards, such as heavy rains leading to landslides, to large-scale ones, such as El Nino and continental monsoons. The main requirement is that submitted forecast should be provided in advance of the event, and the responsible forecaster commits to reporting its outcome, no matter successful or not. The reporting grounds will be a follow-up session in one of the EGU Assemblies (2025 and later, depending on the horizon of the submitted forecasts) and potentially in a special issue of the Journal CHAOS, whose time of publication will be defined by the scale of the submitted forecasts.

The session invites forecasters to present their methods and prognoses for public demonstration of research excellence in modern climatology.

Co-organized by CL3.1
Convener: Valerie N. Livina | Co-conveners: Suzana M Blesic, Jürgen Kurths, Josef Ludescher, Danyang WangECSECS
PICO
| Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 4
Mon, 10:45

CL3.2 – Future Climate – Climate and Society

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Irka Hajdas, Julia Hargreaves

CL3.2.1

Achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep greenhouse gas emissions reductions towards a net-zero world. Advancements in mitigation-relevant science should continuously inform the strategies and measures that society pursues to achieve net zero. This session aims to further our understanding of the climate response with particular interest in remaining carbon budgets, emission pathways entailing net-zero targets and overshoot, carbon dioxide removal strategies, the theoretical underpinnings of these concepts, and their policy implications. We invite contributions that use various tools, including fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), or simple climate model emulators.

This year, we have a special focus on risks inherent to overshoot scenarios that have so far been under-researched. Those risks can be related to 1) the feasibility of the large-scale deployment of negative emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide removal) technologies, 2) the potential for long-term irreversible climate impacts even in cases where global warming is reverted, and 3) their implications for climate change (mal)adaptation.

We welcome studies exploring all aspects of climate change and its impacts in response to future ambitious mitigation scenarios. In addition to studies exploring the remaining carbon budget and the TCRE framework, we welcome contributions on the zero emissions commitment (ZEC), effects of different forcings and feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases), and climate effects of carbon removal strategies. Additionally, we welcome submissions on the climate response to emission pathway and rate, and the climate-carbon responses to different forcing scenarios or implementations (e.g. SSP scenarios, or idealized scenarios). Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets, net-zero pathways including residual emission estimates and benefits of early mitigation are also encouraged.

Co-organized by BG8
Convener: Andrew MacDougall | Co-conveners: Peter PfleidererECSECS, Joeri Rogelj, Nadine MengisECSECS, Norman Julius SteinertECSECS, Emily TheokritoffECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room E2
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 16:15
Mon, 10:45
CL3.2.2

Europe’s coastal, underwater, landscape and urban heritage is under threat. The growing climatic crisis and the related increase in the frequency and intensity of natural hazards alongside with anthropogenic pressure highlight the need to accelerate the incorporation of recent scientific and technological advancements to adapt current management practices to the changing climatic conditions. Reliable methods and systems to evaluate these threats are important for the efficient and proactive management of evolving risks for heritage. However, heritage assets are still managed following traditional procedures.
This session focuses on recent advances that contribute to the protection of heritage exposed to climatic, natural, and anthropogenic hazards and enhance the ability of heritage and connected communities to withstand and adapt to the era of extreme events. Potential contributions include, but are not limited, to the following:
•Models and data that advance the fundamental understanding of the effects of climate-change and natural hazards on heritage (e.g. complex phenomena like flow-soil-structure interaction)
•State-of-the-art techniques to identify, quantify and mitigate risks derived from natural, climatic, anthropogenic and biological hazards, including both single- and multi-hazard scenarios, at various types of heritage.
•Sensing solutions for monitoring risks based on in-situ, remote sensing, and terrestrial instruments.
•Monitoring ecosystems to assess risk and impact derived from expected and unexpected events.
•Early warning and decision support systems to optimize heritage management.
•Material characterization and advanced prediction capabilities for heritage deterioration.
•Participatory methods, immersive technologies and crowdsourcing applications to enhance the management of heritage and provide risk information (e.g., serious gaming, digital twins, mixed, virtual, and augmented reality).
•Post-disruption strategies to restore normal conditions to heritage sites, long-term strategic approaches for adaptation and policy tools for resilience and sustainability.
•Methods and tools to model, analyse, and improve the governance structures and management processes (e.g. network analysis or pathway approaches)
•Knowledge co-production and living lab approaches for risk and resilience assessments.

The session is co-organised by three Horizon Europe projects (THETIDA, TRIQUERTA, RescueME) funded under topic HORIZON-CL2-2022-HERITAGE-01-08.

Public information:

Solicited presentation:

  • Dr. Athanasios Gerakis (European Research Executive Agency) - Title: The Green Cluster of Cultural Heritage: Climate Effects Team EU funded projects
Co-organized by GI6/NH11
Convener: Panagiotis Michalis | Co-conveners: Juan L. GarzonECSECS, Aitziber Egusquiza, Denis IstratiECSECS, Katharina MildeECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 14:00
CL3.2.3

Climate-economic and integrated assessment models are influential, supporting decision-making across scales including national and international energy, agriculture, and health policy. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to construct plausible socioeconomic development narratives such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, used to drive future climate projections in complex Earth system models and relied upon extensively by all three Working Groups of the IPCC. However, economic, econometric and integrated assessment models of climate impacts rely on multiple components, including simplified climate models, damage functions, and policy responses, each of which comes with its own assumptions, limitations, modelling challenges and uncertainties. Owing to the overall complexity of the coupled socioeconomic-Earth system, many individual components must be simplified while robustly capturing the large-scale dynamics of the system.

We invite research on all aspects of the development and application of integrated assessment and climate-economic models. This includes but is not limited to: the development and results of economic, econometric and integrated assessment models of climate change; development of simple climate model emulators used within and external to IAM/economic models; strategies to replicate socio-economic and/or natural spatio-temporal variability; climate impact modelling; under-represented feedbacks, tipping points, and policy effects in the human-Earth system; and uses of economic, integrated assessment and climate emulators in policymaking.

Convener: Christopher Smith | Co-conveners: Luke Jackson, David Stainforth, Ebba Mark
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 16:15
Mon, 10:45
CL3.2.4 | PICO

The Silk Road was a network of trade routes that stretched from central China to the Pamir Mountains, through Central Asia and Arabia to India and Rome, and played a key role in facilitating economic, cultural, political and religious exchanges between East and West. The central part of the Silk Road, located in arid Central Asia, is highly sensitive to environmental changes. Climate and environmental changes, especially changes in water availability, could significantly influence the spatio-temporal distribution of the Silk Road network, trans-Eurasian exchanges and human migration, as well as the civilizational development. This session aims to deepen understanding of the impact of environmental change in shaping long-term trans-Eurasian exchange and Silk Road civilization by promoting interdisciplinary research in the natural sciences, social sciences and humanities across Eurasia. We welcome presentations on these topics from multidisciplinary perspectives to promote the advancement of research in this area.

Convener: Juzhi Hou | Co-conveners: Haichao XieECSECS, Elena Xoplaki, Shengqian ChenECSECS, Kinga Hoppál Krisztina
PICO
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Tue, 16:15
EOS1.8 EDI

Scientists, communicators, citizens, and the media: public awareness of climate change calls for interdisciplinary collaboration to create clear and cohesive narratives to reach a wide and diverse audience and create a real impact. Climate change narratives can take different paths and focus on different perspectives, professions, sectors, and the audience addressed. The role of trust is also pivotal, as different publics are likely to reject information, regardless of its accuracy, if the message doesn’t resonate with an individuals' personal experiences.
Contextualization and concurring historical breakthroughs in climate politics can heighten media attention and coverage, but how can climate science communication reach a wide variety of audiences? To engage a diverse public’s attention and involvement in climate sciences, language must be simple, clear, and appealing. The imaginary boundary between the narrator and the audience can be removed thanks to the contribution and cooperation of cross-sectoral professionalism and experiences. Science and data are the starting point, but stories travel far to reach deeper levels of understanding and perception: those linked to our emotions. Words, voices, and images are stepping stones in the construction of innovative climate stories built to increase climate awareness and knowledge, grounded in frontier science research and forged with cutting-edge technological tools. Mixing the power of storytelling and new media possibilities, an innovative form of science communication can be defined and becomes an effective and powerful tool to convey specific information to a diverse public. This accurate information as a basis for awareness is a key tool to avoid that disinformation misleads the public's understanding of complex topics, such as climate change and science. Recent years confirm that disinformation influences the everyday life of citizens, limiting their active participation in the democratic process. This session is also designed to host a space of dialogue among researchers, fact-checkers, and communications experts to assess how disinformation affects science credibility and society and present tools to tackle it, enhancing the quality of information with a positive effect on public trust in science and resilience.

Co-organized by CL3.2/GM12
Convener: Arianna Acierno | Co-conveners: Elena MaggiECSECS, Vera Penêda, Francesca de Ruvo, Marjana Brkic
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Orals |
Tue, 14:00
Mon, 16:15
EOS4.3 EDI | Poster session

Climate change represents one of the defining societal challenges of the 21st century. However, the response to this challenge remains largely inadequate across the board. Adaptation or mitigation measures taken by countries or companies fall short of what is required to ensure a safe and healthy life for populations around the globe, both today and in the future. The shortfall in climate action has led to a sharp increase in climate lawsuits globally, either to receive compensation for suffered climate damages or to force decision makers to commit to the necessary emissions reductions. In this session, we invite contributions that help bridge the communication gap between science and law in the courtroom. Contributions can include outreach or communication efforts, new scientific methods that can support legal efforts, and inter- and transdisciplinary perspectives on how to integrate geoscience insights in litigation. We also welcome contributions that reflect on how questions of climate change and impact attribution, responsibility, human rights, and burden sharing of efforts can be effectively translated across disciplinary boundaries.

Co-organized by BG8/CL3.2/CR8/ERE1/HS13
Convener: Joeri Rogelj | Co-conveners: Rosa PietroiustiECSECS, Inga Menke, Noah Walker-Crawford, Petra Minnerop
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X1
Wed, 10:45
EOS5.2 EDI | Poster session

The EGU Education Committee organises Geosciences Information for Teachers (GIFT) workshops. This poster session focuses on 'Teaching Climate Change at School'. Abstract submission is open for teachers participating in the GIFT workshop and for all other authors.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Annegret Schwarz | Co-conveners: Stephen Macko, Gina P. Correia, Jean Luc Berenguer
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Tue, 16:15
ERE1.3 EDI

The conservation, protection, and fruition of cultural heritage are closely related to the environmental setting and its variability. Historical objects, structures, and sites worldwide interact with a broad diversity of environments, on the surface (outdoors or indoors), underground, or underwater. As the characteristics of the Earth’s systems vary in space and time, also in view of climate change, so does the behavior of the materials shaping the cultural assets.
This session addresses the interaction between cultural heritage and the environment from the interdisciplinary perspective of geosciences, which represent a valuable support for investigating the properties and durability of the component materials (e.g., stones, ceramics, mortars, pigments, glasses, and metals); their vulnerability and changes in weathering dynamics; the influence of key environmental variables associated with climate, microclimate, and composition of air, waters, and soils; the impact of global warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events; the techniques and products to improve conservation practices; and the adaptation measures for heritage protection. This session welcomes contributions with an explicit and direct connection with environmental issues and questions. The possible research approaches include but are not limited to field and laboratory analysis and testing; damage assessment, observation, and simulation; modeling of decay and risk scenarios; strategies of monitoring and remote investigation; hardware/software design for collecting and processing environmental databases.

Co-organized by CL3.2/ESSI4/GI6
Convener: Luigi GerminarioECSECS | Co-conveners: Alessandra Bonazza, Beatriz Menéndez, Jürgen Moßgraber
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.16
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
HS7.3 EDI | PICO

Hydroclimatic conditions and availability of water resources in space and time constitute important factors for maintaining adequate food supply, the quality of the environment, and the welfare of citizens and inhabitants, in the context of a post-pandemic sustainable growth and economic development. This session is designed to explore the impacts of hydroclimatic variability, climate change, and temporal and spatial availability of water resources on different factors, such as food production, population health, environment quality, and local ecosystem welfare.
We particularly welcome submissions on the following topics:
• Complex inter-linkages between hydroclimatic conditions, food production, and population health, including: extreme weather events, surface and subsurface water resources, surface temperatures, and their impacts on food security, livelihoods, and water- and food-borne illnesses in urban and rural environments.
• Quantitative assessment of surface-water and groundwater resources, and their contribution to agricultural system and ecosystem statuses.
• Spatiotemporal modeling of the availability of water resources, flooding, droughts, and climate change, in the context of water quality and usage for food production, agricultural irrigation, and health impacts over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales.
• Smart infrastructure for water usage, reduction of water losses, irrigation, environmental and ecological health monitoring, such as development of advanced sensors, remote sensing, data collection, and associated modeling approaches.
• Modelling tools for organizing integrated solutions for water supply, precision agriculture, ecosystem health monitoring, and characterization of environmental conditions.
• Water re-allocation and treatment for agricultural, environmental, and health related purposes.
• Impact assessment of water-related natural disasters, and anthropogenic forcing (e.g. inappropriate agricultural practices, and land usage) on the natural environment (e.g. health impacts from water and air, fragmentation of habitats, etc.)

Co-organized by CL3.2/ERE1/NP8
Convener: Elena CristianoECSECS | Co-conveners: Andreas Langousis, Maria Cristina Rulli, Athanasios SerafeimECSECS, Hwa-Lung Yu
PICO
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Thu, 08:30
NH11.2 EDI

Both anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability are affecting the uncertainty of climate risks associated with many natural hazards around the world. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase, the frequency and magnitude of droughts, heatwaves, flooding, wildfires, and tropical cyclones, with severe societal impacts. However, trends and risk vary regionally and are often associated with uncertainties in climate projections.

Understanding and accurately projecting the changes in these hazards, their compounding nature, and how they may interact with local socioeconomics and population changes over the coming decades and centuries requires conversations across a broad range of disciplines: physical sciences, climate risk-modelling, statistics and machine learning, geography and social sciences. Recent record breaking extreme weather events highlight the urgent need to improve our scientific understanding and modelling capacities for installing climate services, early warning schemes and adaptation measures to the future risk.

This session aims to showcase recent research progress investigating natural environmental hazards, improvement in modelling, and projections over decadal to century timescales. It will foster discussion to identify outstanding research questions and form new collaborations, for instance which hazards receive less attention in the community for specific geographical regions? Or what hazard sectors should work more closely with weather and climate scientists for progress to be made?

We invite contributions on the changing risk and prediction from natural hazards, including but not limited to studies of:
- Detection and attribution of climate hazards
- Climate Hazard Modelling
- Climate change trends in hazards on decadal to centennial timescales
- Drivers and Trends in Compound Weather Extremes
- Extreme Weather Early warning Systems
- Global weather and climate teleconnections and their links to environmental hazards

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Vikki Thompson | Co-conveners: Dann Mitchell, Kai Kornhuber, Simona MeilerECSECS, Raed Hamed
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–17:54 (CEST)
 
Room M2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Fri, 14:00
Thu, 16:15
SC2.4

In this short course, we will teach researchers the basics of making accurate and well-calibrated predictions, then get them to apply their skills to a range of problems in emissions scenarios, climate science and climate impacts.

Climate science is valuable because of its power to predict the future and guide it positively, but very little time goes into assessing how well we do and how we can do better with the human predictions we still rely on. For many problems encountered, there are no explicit models for how things will proceed, and we therefore rely on “expert judgement”. However, prediction comparisons find that in some domains, experts are worse than the less-informed public.

We will teach people how to express their beliefs systematically and explain some tools and platforms that facilitate doing this. Finally we’ll elicit predictions to inform climate modellers of high-risk missing data, inform IAM makers of realistic scenarios and inform policymakers of the realistic levels of climate change they will need to adapt to.

Early career researchers, late career researchers and all with an interest in learning how to make better predictions are welcome.

Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Robin LambollECSECS | Co-conveners: Moritz Schwarz, Sofia Palazzo-CornerECSECS
Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
Mon, 08:30
SC2.7 EDI

For decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm regarding the climate and ecological crisis. Each successive report has delivered alarming findings, yet regrettably, these warnings have been met with insufficient responses and political inertia. Consequently, the disastrous effects of human activity on land, water, and atmosphere persist, surpassing the Earth's system boundaries and posing significant threats to both nature and humanity [1,2]. Concurrently, an impassioned climate movement has emerged, led primarily by young activists demanding immediate climate action [3]. As the consequences of the climate crisis become increasingly evident, also scientists and academics are contemplating the most effective roles they can assume within our next to this movement [4,5,6].
This course explores the role of social movements in driving change. We'll discuss how scientists and academic institutions can contribute to urgent climate action. We highly encourage participants to share examples of how scientists can collaborate with their institutions to incorporate advocacy and activism into the academic narrative. Our goal is to inspire participants to think about their roles and provide stepping stones to take meaningful action. The course unfolds in three distinct parts.
1. Interdisciplinary insights: Invited experts will shed light on social movements and universities' roles in historical changes.
2. Scientists in action: Discussion on the pivotal roles scientists and institutions can play in climate justice today, using case studies by facilitators and participants.
3. Brainstorming ways forward: Through interactive discussions and group activities, we'll explore action avenues, from transformative changes in the university to joining non-violent civil disobedience actions.
This short course transcends traditional academic boundaries and seeks to nurture enthusiasm for collective academic action, empowering scientists to step out of their comfort zones and into a world in environmental emergency mode. The course is organized by scientists who are also members of Scientist Rebellion, which advocates for a paradigm shift in the role of scientists—from passive observers to proactive activists pressing for the urgent and necessary actions.
[1] IPCC AR6 SYR 2023 [2] Rockström et al. 2023 Nature [3] Shuman et al. 2021 JPSP [4] Artico et al. 2023 Front Sustain [5] Capstick et al. 2022 Nat. Clim. Chang. [6] Gardner et al. 2021 Front Sustain

Public information:

This SC contains online contributions from Dr Gerrit Schaafsma (Phd on Climate change and civil disobedience), Dr Rose Abramoff (env. scientists and Scientist Rebellion member) and Dr Aaron Thierry (science communicator and environmental campaigner).


Co-organized by CL3.2/GM13
Convener: Marthe WensECSECS | Co-conveners: Sylvain Kuppel, Elodie Duyck, Riccardo Riva
Programme
| Tue, 16 Apr, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room M1
Tue, 19:00

CL4 – Climate studies across timescales

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officer: Carole Nehme

CL4.1 EDI

Land–atmosphere interactions often play a decisive role in shaping climate extremes. As climate change continues to exacerbate the occurrence of extreme events, a key challenge is to unravel how land states regulate the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, intense precipitation and other extreme events. This session focuses on how natural and managed land surface conditions (e.g., soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation state, surface albedo, snow or frozen soil) interact with other components of the climate system – via water, heat and carbon exchanges – and how these interactions affect the state and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Moreover, emphasis is placed on the role of these interactions in alleviating or aggravating the occurrence and impacts of extreme events. We welcome studies using field measurements, remote sensing observations, theory and modelling to analyse this interplay under past, present and/or future climates and at scales ranging from local to global but with emphasis on larger scales.

Co-organized by AS4/BG9/HS13/NH11
Convener: Wim Thiery | Co-conveners: Inne VanderkelenECSECS, Adriaan J. (Ryan) Teuling, Diego G. Miralles, Sonia Seneviratne
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
CL4.2 EDI

The ocean and climate variability across the low-latitude Indo-Pacific Ocean is controlled by complex ocean-atmosphere-land interactions, including the intraseasonal Madden Julian Oscillation, the Australasian monsoon systems, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). By regulating the heat and freshwater transport between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the Indonesian Throughflow also affects the regional climate, and vice versa. Finally, the low-latitude Indo-Pacific is also coupled to mid- and high-latitudes, for instance via western boundary currents, which ventilate the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, in turn, export heat to the extra-tropics.

Despite its global significance, large uncertainty still exists about the dynamics and evolution of the low-latitude Indo-Pacific Ocean. To enhance our understanding of the complex ocean-atmosphere-land interactions, we welcome contributions on all aspects of the modern and past ocean and climate variability of the low-latitude Indo-Pacific and the adjacent continents at various timescales during the Quaternary. This includes physical and biogeochemical studies based on observations, proxy reconstructions from various archives, numerical models, and particularly, data-model comparisons. We also encourage submissions that address teleconnections between the Indo-Pacific low- and mid- to high-latitudes.

Convener: Martina HollsteinECSECS | Co-conveners: Janet Sprintall, Andreas Lückge, Markus Kienast
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 16:15
CL4.3 EDI

This session covers climate predictions from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and their applications. Continuing to improve such predictions is of major importance to society. The session embraces advances in our understanding of the origins of seasonal to decadal predictability and of the limitations of such predictions, as well as advances in improving the forecast skill and reliability and making the most of this information by developing and evaluating new applications and climate services. The session welcomes contributions from dynamical as well as statistical predictions (including machine learning methods) and their combination. This includes predictions of climate phenomena, including extremes and natural hazards, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales ("seamless predictions"). The session also covers physical processes relevant to long-term predictability sources (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) and predictions of large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to teleconnections as well as observational and emergent constraints on climate variability and predictability. Also relevant is the time-dependence of the predictive skill and windows of opportunity. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework and innovative ensemble-forecast initialization and generation strategies are another focus of the session. The session pays particular attention to innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions, including extreme-weather frequencies, post-processing of climate hindcasts and forecasts, and quantification and interpretation of model uncertainty. We particularly invite contributions presenting the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for assessing risks from natural hazards, adaptation and further applications.

Co-organized by AS1/ESSI4/HS13/NH11/NP5/OS1
Convener: Panos J. Athanasiadis | Co-conveners: André Düsterhus, Julia Lockwood, Bianca Mezzina, Lisa DegenhardtECSECS, Leon Hermanson, Leonard Borchert
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:35 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
CL4.5 EDI

The modeling of the Earth Climate System has undergone outstanding advances to the point of resolving atmospheric and oceanic processes on kilometer-scale, thanks to the development of high-performance computing systems. Models resolving km-scale processes (or storm-and-eddy-resolving models) on a global scale are also able to resolve the interaction between the large and small-scale processes, as evidenced by atmosphere- and ocean-only simulations. More importantly, this added value comes at the expense of avoiding the use of parameterizations that interrupts the interaction between scales, i.e., convective parameterization in the atmosphere or mesoscale eddy parameterization in the ocean. These advantages are the bases for the development of global-coupled storm-and-eddy-resolving models, and even at their first steps, such simulations can offer new insights into the importance of capturing the air-sea interface and their associated small-scale processes in the representation of the climate system.
The objective of this session is to have an overview of the added values of global simulations using storm-resolving atmosphere-only configuration, eddy-resolving ocean-only models, and to identify which added values stay after coupling both components, i.e., mechanisms not distorted by the misrepresentation of sub-grid scale processes in the atmosphere and ocean. In addition to highlighting the importance of the already resolved processes in shaping the climate system in global storm-and-eddy-resolving models, this session is also dedicated to presenting the current challenges in global storm-and-eddy-resolving models (identification of biases and possible solutions) by pointing to the role of the sub-grid scale processes in shaping processes on the large scale.
We call for studies contributing to highlighting the advantages and challenges of using global storm-and-eddy-resolving models in ocean-only, atmosphere-only, and coupled configurations, such as the ones proposed by NextGEMS, EERIE, DestinE, and WarmWorld, as well as studies coming from independent institutions around the world.

Co-organized by AS5/HS13/OS4
Convener: Hans SeguraECSECS | Co-conveners: Dian Putrasahan, Daisuke Takasuka, Thomas Rackow, Tobias BeckerECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Tue, 16:15
CL4.6 EDI

Regional climate is often influenced by or connected to changes in remote locations, a phenomenon known as a teleconnection. Changes in the ocean, sea ice, atmosphere or land conditions in remote locations can trigger atmospheric or oceanic disturbances, which then propagate and influence the climate in one or multiple distant regions. These changes could project onto modes of variability (such as PNA/TNH, NAO, IOD, QBO, AMV, PDV etc.) or be a response to anthropogenic forcing (as is the case for the warming Western Tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic Warming Hole etc.). Fleshing out the teleconnections associated with such changes provides us with a clearer understanding of the variations in the climate of a particular region and may also provide a source of predictability. This session invites contributions that focus on this aspect of climate variability and yield new understanding on the origin, dynamics and predictive potential of teleconnections. The studies may be observational or modelling in nature and may be based on paleoclimatic time-scales, the historical period or future scenarios. Research on new methods to diagnose and understand teleconnections is also welcome.

Public information:

Solicited Talk: David Battisti and Sarah Kang

Convener: Rohit GhoshECSECS | Co-conveners: Agnieszka Wypych, Magdalena MittermeierECSECS, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Camille Li, Ileana Bladé, Daniela Matei
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
CL4.9 EDI

To address societal concerns over rising sea level and extreme events, understanding and quantifying the contributions behind these changes is key to anticipate potential impacts of sea level change on coastal communities and the global economy. In this session, we address these challenges and we welcome contributions from the international sea level community that improve our knowledge of the past, present and future changes in global and regional sea level, extreme events and coastal impacts.
We focus on studies exploring the physical mechanisms for sea level rise and variability and the drivers of these changes, at any time scale (from high-frequency phenomena to paleo sea level). Investigations on linkages between variability in sea level, heat and freshwater content, ocean dynamics, land subsidence and mass exchanges between the land and the ocean associated with ice sheet and glacier mass loss and changes in the terrestrial water storage are welcome. Studies focusing on future sea level changes are also encouraged, as well as those discussing potential short-, medium-, and long-term impacts on coastal environments, as well as the global oceans.

Public information:

Please note that for this session the posters are on Thursday afternoon, and the talks are on Friday morning.

Co-organized by OS1
Convener: Aimée Slangen | Co-conveners: Carolina M.L. CamargoECSECS, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Julius OelsmannECSECS, M. D. Palmer
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST)
 
Room F1
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
CL4.10

One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of global and regional climate-related risks.
The main goals of the session is (i) to identify gaps in current climate prediction methods and (ii) to report and evaluate the latest progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal and longer timescales. This will include presentations and discussions of the developments in predictions for the different time horizons from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, exploration of artificial-intelligence methods, etc.
Following the new WCRP strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes between atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice components, as well as the impacts of coupling and feedbacks in physical, hydrological, chemical, biological, and human dimensions. Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects.
An increasingly important aspect for climate forecast's applications is the use of most appropriate downscaling methods, based on dynamical, statistical, artificial-intelligence approaches or their combination, that are needed to generate time series and fields with an appropriate spatial or temporal resolution. This is extensively considered in the session, which therefore brings together scientists from all geoscientific disciplines working on the prediction and application problems.

Co-organized by BG9/NP5/OS1
Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-conveners: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Tatiana Ilyina, June-Yi Lee, Xiaosong Yang
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
CL4.12 EDI

Mediterranean climate regions of the world are located in transitional midlatitude zones like the Mediterranean basin area, western North America and small coastal areas of western South America, southern Africa and southern Australia. This transitional character makes them highly vulnerable to climate change. In all these Mediterranean climate regions, the future holds high risks and uncertainty on biodiversity, aridity, ecosystems, and on the sustainability and resilience of socio-economic systems. Innovative approaches to develop and test effective and sustainable climate adaptation and mitigation are, therefore, required. Understanding the past, characterizing the present and modeling the future are essential steps to estimate the risks and to assess the impacts of climate change.

This session intends to strengthen the exchanges among the communities studying the Mediterranean climate regions of the world to promote a multi-disciplinary approach in identifying and preparing shared solutions and practices. Studies of observed past changes and/or future climate projections focused on physical (including extremes, teleconnections, hydrological cycle) and biogeochemical (including biodiversity) aspects of Mediterranean climate regions are welcome. Similarly, climate change related social aspects including indigenous knowledge in mitigating climate risks are well received. Analyses where multiple Mediterranean climate-type regions are considered and compared are highly appreciated. In addition, as a multidisciplinary MedCLIVAR session we encourage contributions from a broad range of disciplines and topics dealing with dynamics and processes of the climate system, sectoral impacts of climate change, climate change adaptation and innovative methods and approaches in climate science.

Convener: Andrea Toreti | Co-conveners: Annalisa Cherchi, Andreia RibeiroECSECS, Katrin Schroeder, Bikem EkberzadeECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
CL4.14 EDI

In recent decades, a variety of multi-timescale, multi-faceted climate and weather extremes, including droughts, floods, heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and compound events, have been observed globally. These impactful and usually devastating climate and weather extreme events have posed severe challenges to both natural environments and human societies. The rarity of these climate and weather extremes is a fundamental feature but also has hampered our efforts to advance understanding and prediction of them. The session will synergize global climate community’s important and novel work on investigating, predicting and projecting these climate and weather extreme events, in order to forge scientific consensus and drive policy making for mitigation and adaptation.

The session will use the 3P (Processes, Prediction and Projection) framework to showcase the latest and most compelling research on advancing understanding and prediction of climate and weather extremes. The session will be focusing on climate and weather extremes occurring in land areas manifesting as extreme precipitation, extreme snowfall, intense droughts, and intense and sustained heat waves/cold spells. Contributions are welcome from but are not limited to novel studies on (a) a fundamental probe of mechanisms of climate and weather extreme events, (b) their predictability and predictions using statistical and modelling frameworks, and (c) projections of change in them using both probabilistic and story-line approaches.

Studies addressing competing driving roles of local land surface, accelerated Arctic warming and oceanic forcing as well as isolating natural and human-driving influences are highly encouraged to contribute. We also encourage contributions from studies using large-ensemble climate modelling and comprehensive-data analyses, which provide better sampling of climate and weather extreme events. Studies undertaking innovative and emerging advanced techniques/concepts, for example artificial intelligence, to push understanding and prediction of climate and weather extremes are also highly encouraged to submit an abstract.

Convener: Kunhui YeECSECS | Co-conveners: Ke Fan, Lea Svendsen, Shengping He, Judah Cohen
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
AS1.19 EDI

The atmospheric water cycle is a key component of the climate system, and links across many scientific disciplines. Processes interact with dynamics at different scales throughout the atmospheric life cycle of water vapour from evaporation to precipitation. This session sets the focus on understanding the interaction between processes, their dynamics and characteristics of the water cycle, covering the entire atmospheric life cycle from evaporation, atmospheric moisture transport, to cloud microphysics and precipitation processes as observed from in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation, recorded by paleo-/climate archives, and as simulated by models for past, present and future climates.

We invite studies

* focusing on the understanding and impacts of features of the atmospheric water cycle related to weather systems, with a special focus on the role of Atmospheric Rivers;

* investigating the large-scale drivers behind the past, ongoing and future variability and trends within the atmospheric water cycle, from field campaigns (YOPP, MOSAiC, (AC)3, ISLAS, EUREC4A etc.), long-term observations, reanalysis data, regional to global model simulations, or (isotopic) data assimilation;

* reconstructing past hydroclimates based on paleo-proxy records from archives such as ice cores, lake sediments, tree-rings or speleothems;

* applying methods such as tagged water tracers and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics to identify source-sink relationships and to evaluate model simulations of the water cycle;

* using the isotopic fingerprint of atmospheric processes and weather systems to obtain new mechanistic insights into changes in the water cycle;

* describing the global and regional state of the atmospheric water cycle (e.g. monsoon systems) with characteristics such as the recycling ratio, life time of water vapour, and moisture transport properties.

We particularly encourage contributions linking across neighbouring disciplines, such as atmospheric science, climate, paleoclimate, glaciology, and hydrology.

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Iris ThurnherrECSECS | Co-conveners: Seung Hun Baek, Camilla F. BrunelloECSECS, Bo DongECSECS, Marina Duetsch, Alexandre M. Ramos, Harald Sodemann
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.11/12
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Fri, 16:15
Fri, 14:00
AS1.35 EDI

Mountains cover approximately one-quarter of the total land surface on the planet, and a significant fraction of the world’s population lives in their vicinity. Orography critically affects weather and climate processes at all scales and, in connection with factors such as land-cover heterogeneity, is responsible for high spatial variability in mountain weather and climate. Due to this high complexity, monitoring and modeling the atmosphere and the other components of the climate system in mountain regions is challenging both at short (meteorological) and long (climatological) time scales. This session is devoted to a better understanding of weather and climate processes in mountain and high-elevation areas around the globe, as well as their modification induced by global environmental change.

We welcome contributions describing the influence of mountains on the atmosphere on meteorological time scales, including terrain-induced airflow, orographic precipitation, land-atmosphere exchange over mountains, forecasting, and predictability of mountain weather. Contributions connected with the TEAMx research programme (http://www.teamx-programme.org/) are encouraged.

Furthermore, we invite studies that investigate climate processes and climate change in mountain areas and its impacts on dependent systems, based on monitoring and modeling activities. Particularly welcome are contributions that merge various sources of information and reach across disciplinary borders (atmospheric, hydrological, cryospheric, ecological, and social sciences) and that connect to the Elevation-Dependent Climate Change (EDCC) working group of the Mountain Research Initiative (see https://www.mountainresearchinitiative.org/activities/community-led-activities/working-groups).

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Stefano Serafin | Co-conveners: Maria Vittoria GuarinoECSECS, Sven Kotlarski, Douglas Maraun, Anna NapoliECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room M2
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
AS1.18 EDI

Regional monsoons and the global monsoon circulation to which they belong have profound impacts on water, energy, and food security. Monsoons cause severe floods and droughts as well as undergoing variability on subseasonal, interannual and decadal-to-multi-decadal time scales. In addition to their profound local effects, monsoon variability also causes global-scale impacts via teleconnections.

Monsoons are complex phenomena involving coupled atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and remain notoriously difficult to forecast at leads times ranging from numerical weather prediction (NWP) to long-term climate projections. A better understanding of monsoon physics and dynamics, with more accurate simulation, prediction and projection of monsoon systems is therefore of great importance.

This session invites presentations on any aspects of monsoon research in present-day, future and palaeoclimate periods, involving observations, modelling, attribution, prediction and climate projection. Topics ranging from theoretical works based on idealized planets and ITCZ frameworks to the latest field campaign results are equally welcomed, as is work on impacts, extremes, NWP modelling, S2S and decadal forecasting, and the latest CMIP6 findings. Applications of AI/ML to monsoon studies are also encouraged.

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Andrew Turner | Co-conveners: Roberta D'AgostinoECSECS, Kyung-Ja Ha, Jianping Li
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.14
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 14:00
AS3.12

Anthropogenic and natural aerosols play key roles in driving climate change over a range of spatial and temporal scales, both close to emission sources and also remotely through teleconnections. Aerosols can directly interact with radiation by scattering and absorption and indirectly through modulating cloud properties, and thereby modify the surface and atmospheric energy balance, cloud dynamics and precipitation patterns, and the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Changes in regional aerosol emissions accelerate greenhouse gas-driven climatic changes in some regions, counteract them in others, and may interact with natural variability to further stress human and ecological systems. However, our understanding of these impacts still lags those due to greenhouse gases. The poor aerosol integration in many climate risk and impact studies currently leads to potentially dangerous omissions in projections of near-term climate change impacts.

This session addresses: the strong and spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, air quality, and extreme events driven by aerosol changes over the historical era, and those expected in the near future; the interplay between aerosol-driven changes and those induced by other forcing factors; and their extensions to climate risk and impact studies. We encourage contributions based on model and observation-based approaches to investigate the effects of aerosols on regional decadal climate variability and extremes, tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnections, and the interactions with modes of variability such as the NAO, ENSO, AMV, and PDO. We also welcome focused studies on monsoon systems, midlatitude and Arctic responses, extreme temperature and precipitation, atmospheric and oceanic circulation changes, tropical cyclones, and daily variability, using for example CMIP6 projections, large ensemble simulations, or specifically designed experiments. We especially encourage studies focusing on climate risk and concrete regional impacts on nature and society resulting from changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions.

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Laura Wilcox | Co-conveners: Bjorn H. Samset, ben booth, Daniel Westervelt
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 16:15
AS3.9 EDI | PICO

The interactions between aerosols, climate, weather, and society are among the large uncertainties of current atmospheric research. Mineral dust is an important natural source of aerosol with significant implications on radiation, cloud microphysics, atmospheric chemistry, and the carbon cycle via the fertilization of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Together with other light-absorbing particles, dust
impacts snow and ice albedo and can accelerate glacier melt. In addition, properties of dust deposited in sediments and ice cores are important (paleo-)climate indicators.

This interdivisional session -- building bridges between the EGU divisions AS, CL, CR, SSP, BG and GM -- had its first edition in 2004 and it is open to contributions dealing with:

(1) measurements of all aspects of the dust cycle (emission, transport, deposition, size distribution, particle characteristics) with in situ and remote sensing techniques,
(2) numerical simulations of dust on global, regional, and local scales,
(3) meteorological conditions for dust storms, dust transport and deposition,
(4) interactions of dust with clouds and radiation,
(5) influence of dust on atmospheric chemistry,
(6) fertilization of ecosystems through dust deposition,
(7) interactions with the cryosphere, including also aerosols other than dust,
(8) any study using dust as a (paleo-)climate indicator, including sediment archives in loess, ice cores, lake sediments, ocean sediments and dunes,
(9) impacts of dust on climate and climate change, and associated feedbacks and uncertainties,
(10) implications of dust for health, transport, energy systems, agriculture, infrastructure, etc.

We especially encourage the submission of papers that integrate different disciplines and/or address the modelling of past, present, and future climates.

Solicited speaker: Keri Nicoll, University of Reading, "Recent developments in dust electrification research"

Co-organized by BG1/CL4/CR7/GM7/SSP3, co-sponsored by ISAR
Convener: Martina Klose | Co-conveners: Claire Ryder, Jan-Berend Stuut, Adolfo Gonzalez Romero, Pavla Dagsson WaldhauserovaECSECS, Outi MeinanderECSECS
PICO
| Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 5
Thu, 08:30
AS4.2 EDI

While observed volume, concentration and extent of Arctic sea ice have decreased dramatically over the last decades, climate model simulations of the recent past feature a slower sea-ice decline than observed. These same models are then used to project future sea ice changes, raising the question if even the most optimistic future emission scenarios will be enough to preserve the summer sea ice in the future.

Although the sea-ice decrease is the most pronounced in late summer, understanding coupled key processes of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere-system during the so-called shoulder seasons, the onsets of the melt in spring and freeze up in autumn, is important since the timing of these set the boundaries for the length of the melt season and therefore strongly influence the total melt in any given year.

While the autumn freeze onset has received some attention, substantially less is known about the spring melt onset, partly because of a lack of observations to characterize and understand the processes controlling or leading up to it, on different scales. An improved understanding of this season is important, to inform model development crucial for simulations and assessments of future changes in the Arctic climate system.

This session focuses on the late winter and early spring in the Arctic and especially the onset of the summer sea-ice melt. We invite presentations broadly on ocean, sea-ice and atmospheric processes over a large spectrum of scales governing or being strongly affected by this transition, from long-term observations and reanalysis, process and climate modeling and especially from observations from new field campaigns covering this time period, such as MOSAiC and ARTofMELT.

Co-organized by CL4/CR3/OS1
Convener: Michael Tjernström | Co-conveners: Paul Zieger, Penny Vlahos, Jessie Creamean, Cort ZangECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 10:45
CR2.2 EDI

Ice sheets play an active role in the climate system by amplifying, pacing, and potentially driving global climate change over a wide range of time scales. The impact of interactions between ice sheets and climate include changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures and circulation, global biogeochemical cycles, the global hydrological cycle, vegetation, sea level, and land-surface albedo, which in turn cause additional feedbacks in the climate system. This session will present data and modelling results that examine ice sheet interactions with other components of the climate system over several time scales. Among other topics, issues to be addressed in this session include ice sheet-climate interactions from glacial-interglacial to millennial and centennial time scales, the role of ice sheets in Cenozoic global cooling and the mid-Pleistocene transition, reconstructions of past ice sheets and sea level, the current and future evolution of the ice sheets, and the role of ice sheets in abrupt climate change.

Co-organized by CL4/NP3/OS1
Convener: Heiko Goelzer | Co-conveners: Jonas Van BreedamECSECS, Ricarda Winkelmann, Alexander Robinson, Ronja ReeseECSECS
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room L3
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 10:45
HS2.4.2 EDI

Assessing the impact of climate variability and changes on hydrological systems and water resources is crucial for society to better adapt to future changes in water resources, as well as extreme conditions (floods and droughts). However, important sources of uncertainty have often been neglected in projecting climate impacts on hydrological systems, especially uncertainties associated with internal/natural climate variability. From one model to another, or from a single model realization to another, the impact of diverging trends and sequences of interannual and decadal variability of various internal/natural climate modes (e.g., ENSO, NAO, AMO) could substantially alter the impact of human-induced climate change on hydrological variability and extremes. Furthermore, model findings may contrast with insights that global satellite data provide, e.g. observations of hydrological change often do not support dry-gets-dryer and wet-gets-wetter patterns that global climate models suggest. Therefore, we need to improve both our understanding of how internal/natural climate patterns affect hydrological variability and extremes, and how we communicate these impacts. We also need to better understand how internal/natural climate variations interact with various catchment properties (e.g., vegetation cover, groundwater support) and land-use changes altering them. In this direction, storylines of plausible worst cases, or multiple physically plausible cases, arising from internal climate variability can complement information from probabilistic impact scenarios. In addition, a comparison of satellite data and model output can help close the gap in understanding wetting and drying patterns at the continental scale.

We welcome abstracts capturing recent insights for understanding past or future impacts of internal/natural climate variability on hydrological systems and extremes, as well as newly developed probabilistic and storyline impact scenarios. Results from model intercomparisons using large ensembles are encouraged. We also solicited presentations on improving our observing system (e.g. via new retrieval approaches, data assimilation, or developing new sensor systems) and on developing modelling frameworks.

Co-organized by CL4/NH1
Convener: Bastien Dieppois | Co-conveners: Arianna ValmassoiECSECS, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Hayley Fowler, Wilson ChanECSECS, Katie Facer-ChildsECSECS, Jean-Philippe Vidal
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall A
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall A
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
OS1.9 EDI

Knowledge of energy, heat, salt, and carbon transports between and within climate components is crucial in order to understand the Earth’s climate system behavior and its variability, predictability, and future changes. In the ocean, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and tropical and subtropical gyres is essential for the heat, salt, and carbon budget and the water mass distributions and transformations (in Eulerian, Lagrangian, and tracer coordinates) of individual basins and in both hemispheres. In the atmosphere, the zonal mean Hadley circulation determines meridional energy transport over the tropics, while Rossby and planetary-scale waves modulate the energy exchanges carried by extratropical eddies. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, the hydrological cycle, and heat and salt transport are tightly intertwined through physical processes, phase changes, and energy conversions that are sensitive to natural and anthropogenic forcings and feedbacks. From a modelling perspective, understanding of energy transfers from oceanic and atmospheric large-scale circulation to the internal wave field through mesoscale and sub-mesoscale eddies is the basis for the development of new parameterizations for both oceanic and atmospheric small-scale processes.

We invite submissions addressing the interplay between Earth’s energy exchanges and the general circulation, using modeling, theory, and observations across all scales. We encourage contributions regarding the forced response and natural variability of the general circulation, understanding present-day climate, past and future changes, and impacts of global features and changes on global and regional climate, and their importance for climate predictability.

Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Abhishek SavitaECSECS | Co-conveners: Valerio Lembo, Malin ÖdalenECSECS, Helene R. Langehaug, Rune Grand Graversen, Siren RühsECSECS
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
NP1.5 EDI

Projections of future climate rely on increasingly complex, high-resolution earth system models (ESMs). At the same time, nonlinearities and emergent phenomena in the climate system are often studied by means of simple conceptual models, which offer qualitative process understanding and allow for a broad range of theoretical approaches. Simple climate models are also widely used as physics-based emulators of computationally expensive ESMs, forming the basis of many probabilistic assessments in the IPCC 6th Assessment.

Between these two approaches, a persistent “gap between simulation and understanding” (Held 2005, see also Balaji et al. 2022) challenges our ability to transfer insight from simple models to reality, and distill the physical mechanisms underlying the behavior of state-of-the-art ESMs. This calls for a concerted effort to learn from the entire model hierarchy, striving to understand the differences and similarities across its various levels of complexity for increased confidence in climate prediction.

In this session, we invite contributions from all subfields of climate science that showcase how modeling approaches of different complexity advance our process understanding, and/or highlight inconsistencies in the model hierarchy. We also welcome studies exploring a single modeling approach, as we aim to foster exchange between researchers working on different rungs of the model hierarchy. Contributions may employ dynamical systems models, physics-based low-order models, explainable machine learning, Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), simplified or idealized setups of ESMs (radiative-convective equilibrium, single-column models, aquaplanets, slab-ocean models, idealized geography, etc.), and full ESMs.

Processes and phenomena of interest include, but are not limited to:
* Earth system response to forcing scenarios (policy-relevant, extreme, counterfactual)
* Tipping points and abrupt transitions (e.g. Dansgaard-Oeschger events)
* Coupled modes of climate variability (e.g. ENSO, AMV, MJO)
* Emergent and transient phenomena (e.g. cloud organization)
* Extreme weather events

Co-organized by AS5/CL4/OS4
Convener: Reyk BörnerECSECS | Co-conveners: Oliver MehlingECSECS, Raphael RoemerECSECS, Maya Ben YamiECSECS, Richard Wood
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 16:15
NP3.3 EDI

Geophysical processes are governed by diverse spatial and temporal scales, and often characterized by the complex fluctuations of observations. Modeling and simulation of geophysical processes becomes extremely complex because of such non-linear fluctuations, for which, the scaling characterization is extremely important.

The first part of the session expands the knowledge on scaling characterization of geophysical time series from diverse scientific domains to develop a knowledge base of complementary nature. The geophysical processes become even more complex because of the internal structural properties like intermittency and such an in-depth understanding will improve the accuracy of modeling of complex systems. This session aims to nurture the scientific development of scaling, fractals and related methodologies applicable to the time series observations from wide range of geophysical fields like hydrology, climatology, meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography and statistical physics for their improved modeling and predictability :
- Scaling, fractal, multifractal characterization and modeling of complex geophysical data and extreme events
- In-depth understanding of the internal dynamics of geophysical data
- Understanding the fractal /scaling correlations between governing variables
- Linking network theoretical approach and scaling to find its applications across different geophysical fields

The second part of the session focuses on characterizing multi-decadal and longer Earth system dynamics, which has significant and direct impact on our society. This requires a combination of paleoclimate data and modeling given the insufficiency of short-term observational data. Our aim is to advance the understanding of climate variability across spatial and temporal scales through research focusing on:
-Characterizing multi-decadal to millennial climate dynamics through the use of proxy data and (conceptual or realistic) model simulations
-Evaluating the impact of Earth’s subsystem - such as the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land-surface - in shaping long-term climate variability, and relevant feedback mechanisms
-Proxy system modeling, calibration and propagation of uncertainty with a focus on multi-decadal and longer timescales to aid reconstructions and model-data comparisons
-The attribution of climate variability to internal and/or forced dynamics

Co-organized by CL4, co-sponsored by PAGES
Convener: Raphael HébertECSECS | Co-conveners: Ángel García GagoECSECS, Adarsh Sankaran, Thomas Plocoste, Qiong Zhang, Vanessa SkibaECSECS, Shaun Lovejoy
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:40 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Tue, 10:45
Mon, 16:15
Mon, 14:00

CL5 – Tools for Climate studies

Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Julia Hargreaves, Ola Kwiecien

CL5.2 EDI | PICO

Homogeneous long-term data records (i.e., well calibrated quality-controlled data that are forced to look like a common reference) are essential for researching, monitoring, or attenuating changes in climate, for example to describe the state of climate or to detect climate extremes. Likewise, reanalysis requires harmonized data records (i.e., well calibrated quality-controlled data that maintained the unique nature of each sensor). Climate data records need to be screened and cleared from artificial non-climatic temporal and/or spatial effects, such as gradual degradation of instruments, jumps due to instruments changes, jumps due to observation practices changes, or jumps due to changes of station location and exposure. The magnitude and uncertainty of these gradual and/or abrupt changes determines their suitability for climate trend analyses. Therefore, data intended for applications, such as making a realistic and reliable assessment of historical climate trends and variability, require consistently homogenized and/or harmonized data records including measurement uncertainties.
The above described artificial non-climatic effects influence the quality of different Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), including atmospheric (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed), oceanic (e.g., sea surface temperature), and terrestrial (e.g., albedo, snow cover) variables. Our session calls for contributions, using data records from i) in-situ observing networks, ii) satellite observing systems, and or iii) climate/earth-system model simulations based data records, on the:
• calibration, quality control, homogenization/harmonization and validation of either Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) and/or Essential Climate Variables data records (CDRs);
• development of new data records and their analysis (spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly of extremes);
• examination of observed trends and variability, as well as studies that explore the applicability of techniques/algorithms to data of different temporal resolutions (annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and sub-daily);
• rescue and analysis of centennial meteorological observations, with focus on data prior to the 1960s, as a unique source to fill in the gap of knowledge of climate variability over century time-scales.

Convener: Lorenzo MinolaECSECS | Co-conveners: Cesar Azorin-Molina, Xiaolan Wang, Rob Roebeling, Corrado MottaECSECS
PICO
| Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Wed, 08:30
CL5.3

The Quaternary Period (last 2.6 million years) is characterized by frequent and abrupt climate swings that were accompanied by rapid environmental change. Studying these changes requires accurate and precise dating methods that can be effectively applied to environmental archives. A range of different methods or a combination of various dating techniques can be used, depending on the archive, time range, and research question. Varve counting and dendrochronology allow for the construction of high-resolution chronologies, whereas radiometric methods (radiocarbon, cosmogenic in-situ, U-Th) and luminescence dating provide independent anchors for chronologies that span over longer timescales. We particularly welcome contributions that aim to (1) reduce, quantify and express dating uncertainties in any dating method, including high-resolution radiocarbon approaches; (2) use established geochronological methods to answer new questions; (3) use new methods to address longstanding issues, or; (4) combine different chronometric techniques for improved results, including the analysis of chronological datasets with novel methods, e.g. Bayesian age-depth modeling. Applications may aim to understand long-term landscape evolution, quantify rates of geomorphological processes, or provide chronologies for records of climate change and anthropogenic effects on Earth's system.

Co-organized by BG2/GM2
Convener: Irka Hajdas | Co-conveners: Gina E. Moseley, Arne Ramisch, Andreas Lang
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Wed, 16:15
CL5.4

Over recent decades we have gained a robust understanding of climate change fundamentals, but its specific and localized impacts are anything but certain. The need to provide boundary conditions for forecasting and computational modelling has increased the importance of quantitative methods in the field of palaeoenvironmental, palaeoclimatic and palaeohydrological reconstruction.

Continental environmental archives (e.g., speleothems, lake and river sediments, peatlands, and vertebrate and invertebrate remains) are often highly temporally resolved (subdecadal to seasonal) and provide more direct information about atmospheric and hydrological processes than marine archives. The wide variety of continental archives allows for intercomparison and ground-truthing of results from different environments, while multi-proxy reconstructions from the same archive can disentangle local and supra-regional environmental conditions. This approach is particularly useful when dealing with high spatial variability, signal buffering, nonlinearities, and uncertainties in the proxy sensitivity.

This session aims to highlight recent advances in the use of innovative and quantitative proxies to reconstruct past environmental change on land. We welcome studies of all continental archives, including but not limited to carbonates (cave deposits, palaeosols, snails), sediments (lakes, peatlands, rivers, alluvial fans), and biological materials (tree rings, fossil assemblages, bones, biomarkers). If you calibrate physical and chemical proxies that incorporate modern transfer functions, perform forward modeling and/or geochemical modeling to predict proxy signals, or attempt at quantitative estimates of past temperature and palaeohydrological dynamics you are mostly welcomed in our session! We are keen to invite reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic variability, palaeoclimate data assimilation, and monitoring and modelling studies leading to calibration or simply better understanding of climate proxies. We are also keen to learn about limitations, failed approaches and negative results. Our session provides a forum for discussing recent innovations and future directions in the for continental palaeoenvironmental studies on seasonal to multi-millennial timescales.

Convener: Ola Kwiecien | Co-conveners: Cindy De Jonge, Elisabeth Dietze, Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach, Bethany Fox
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
CL5.5 EDI

This session aims to identify and compare innovative strategies and approaches for climate modeling. Contributions cover the spatiotemporal scales from global to regional and extract climate information from climate simulation ensembles such as CORDEX or CMIP6 for the assessment of climate and its changes.

Global and regional climate modeling has experienced tremendous growth in the last decades, encompassing a large and diverse scientific community. Regional climate models (RCMs) can be run on a wide range of scales, from hydrostatic to convection-resolving resolutions, and they support a variety of applications. Strategies for weighting, filtering, constraining, and the general sub-selection of global climate models (GCMs) have also grown in number. These methods are used in simulation ensemble analysis but also in the selection of boundary conditions for statistical or dynamical downscaling and, hence, constitute a connection point between the global and regional modeling communities.

This session welcomes contributions related to:
- methodological developments in regional climate modeling, performance analysis of RCMs, use of RCMs for regional processes studies, past and future climate projections, as well as studies on extreme events and impact assessment;
- constraining and sub-selecting GCMs: methods of emergent constraints, regional weighting, and filtering approaches, as well as qualitative and quantitative model sub-selection. Approaches based on model performance, model independence, and model spread in a range of variables or derived quantities are also considered;
- complementarity between constrained GCMs and RCMs.

Contributions related to the CORDEX program, including the production and analysis of CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE, and/or CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) experiments and simulations are welcome. Approaches aiming at evaluating or selecting CMIP6 models for the latest iteration of CORDEX are particularly encouraged as this session also aims to connect the global and regional climate modeling communities.

Convener: Eun-Soon Im | Co-conveners: Said QasmiECSECS, Lukas BrunnerECSECS, Melissa Bukovsky, Csaba Zsolt TormaECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST), 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room E2
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Tue, 10:45
CL5.6 EDI

Earth System Models (ESMs) have evolved considerably in complexity, capability and scale as evidenced in projects such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the forthcoming CMIP7 project.
Coupled Earth system interactions such as feedbacks and potential abrupt changes are a significant source of uncertainty in our current understanding of the Earth system and how it might respond to future human interventions.
There is therefore a need to credibly assess such developments and capabilities for effective research on climate variability and change.
This session will examine physical, biogeochemical and biophysical processes likely to affect the evolution of the Earth system over the coming decades and centuries. Contributions with a focus on; (a) the latest advances in the representation of these couplings and interactions within state-of-the-art numerical models; (b) novel experimental designs to help improve quantification of these feedbacks, including those targeting CMIP7 activities and (c) novel approaches for benchmarking and evaluation of ESMs including cross-domain and process -based evaluation, observational uncertainties, science and performance metrics and benchmarks; are all particularly welcome.
This session arises from the joint initiative of the The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team, EU-funded ESM2025 and OptimESM projects.

Co-organized by ESSI2
Convener: Roland Séférian | Co-conveners: Joshua DorringtonECSECS, Alicia HouECSECS, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Torben Koenigk, Chantelle BurtonECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Mon, 16:15
Mon, 10:45
Mon, 14:00
CL5.8 EDI | PICO

Climate services challenge the traditional interface between users and providers of climate information as it requires the establishment of a dialogue between subjects, who often have limited knowledge of each other’s activities and practices. Increasing the understanding and usability of climate information for societal use has become a major challenge where economic growth, and social development crucially depends on adaptation to climate variability and change.

To this regard, climate services do not only create user-relevant climate information but also stimulate the need to quantify vulnerabilities and come up with appropriate adaptation solutions that can be applied in practice.

The operational generation, management and delivery of climate services poses a number of new challenges to the traditional way of accessing and distributing climate data. With a growing private sector playing the role of service provider is important to understand what are the roles and the responsibilities of the publicly funded provision of climate data and information and services.

This session aims to gather best practices and lessons learnt, for how climate services can successfully facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change by providing climate information that is tailored to the real user need.
Contributions are strongly encouraged from international efforts (GFCS, CSP, ClimatEurope…); European Initiatives (H2020, ERA4CS, C3S, JPI-Climate) as well as national, regional and local experiences.

Convener: Alessandro Dell'Aquila | Co-conveners: Verónica TorralbaECSECS, Andrej Ceglar, Christiana Photiadou, Nube González
PICO
| Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3
Wed, 10:45
CL5.9 EDI | Poster session

The stable isotopic composition of seawater and the carbon isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon are essential ocean tracers that have been widely measured since the 1960s. They are in particular used to investigate the hydrological cycle and the exchanges between the ocean, sea ice, ice sheets, the atmosphere and continental runoffs, as well as the bio-geochemical cycles, the anthropogenic carbon penetration, and the associated acidification of the oceans. Moreover, they are used to validate proxy-tracers measured in natural archives for reconstructing past climate evolution. Modeling studies suggest that these isotopes are currently experiencing large changes linked to global warming and the associated changes in the hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. However, using and interpreting current data sets is often hampered by substantial issues in data collection, analysis, and synthesis.
This session welcomes presentations that highlight some of these issues, illustrate current or potential future use, and present newest results of the ocean water and carbon isotope analyses in observation or modeling studies of present, past, and future ocean conditions, as well as derived processes in the hydrological cycle and biogeochemical cycles.

Co-organized by OS3
Convener: Antje Voelker | Co-conveners: Gilles Reverdin, Alexander HaumannECSECS, Eun Young Kwon, dharma andrea reyes macayaECSECS
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
AS1.22

This session investigates mid-latitude cyclones and storms on both hemispheres. We invite studies considering cyclones in all different stages of their life cycles, from initial generation to the final development, including studies to large- and synoptic-scale conditions influencing cyclones’ growth to a severe storm, their dissipation, and related socioeconomic impacts.
Papers are welcome, which focus also on the diagnostic of observed past and recent trends, as well as on future storm development under changed climate conditions. This will include storm predictability studies on different scales. Finally, the session will also invite studies investigating impacts related to storms: Papers are welcome dealing with vulnerability, diagnostics of sensitive social and infrastructural categories and affected areas of risk for property damages. Which risk transfer mechanisms are currently used, depending on insured and economic losses? Which mechanisms (e.g., new reinsurance products) are already implemented or will be developed in order to adapt to future loss expectations?

Co-organized by CL5/NH1
Convener: Gregor C. Leckebusch | Co-conveners: Jennifer Catto, Joaquim G. Pinto, Uwe Ulbrich
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.11/12
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 19 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Fri, 19 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 10:45
Fri, 14:00
G3.1

This session invites innovative Earth system and climate studies employing geodetic observations and methods. Modern geodetic observing systems have been instrumental in studying a wide range of changes in the Earth’s solid and fluid layers at various spatiotemporal scales. These changes are related to surface processes such as glacial isostatic adjustment, the terrestrial water cycle, ocean dynamics and ice-mass balance, which are primarily due to changes in the climate. To understand the Earth system response to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, different time spans of observations need to be cross-compared and combined with several other datasets and model outputs. Geodetic observables are also often compared with geophysical models, which helps in explaining observations, evaluating simulations, and finally merging measurements and numerical models via data assimilation.

We look forward to contributions that:​

1. Utilize geodetic data from diverse geodetic satellites including altimetry, gravimetry (CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and GRACE-FO, SWOT), navigation satellite systems (GNSS and DORIS) or remote sensing techniques that are based on both passive (i.e., optical and hyperspectral) and active (i.e., SAR) instruments.​

2. Cover a wide variety of applications of geodetic measurements and their combination to observe and model Earth system signals in hydrological, ocean, atmospheric, climate and cryospheric sciences.​

3. Show a new approach or method for separating and interpreting the variety of geophysical signals in our Earth system and combining various observations to improve spatiotemporal resolution of Earth observation products.​

4. Work on simulations of future satellite mission (such as MAGIC and NGMM) that may advance climate sciences.​

5. Work towards any of the goals of the Inter-Commission Committee on "Geodesy for Climate Research" (ICCC) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG).​

We are committed to promoting gender balance and ECS in our session. With author consent, highlights from this session will be tweeted with a dedicated hashtag during the conference in order to increase the impact of the session.

Co-organized by CL5/OS4
Convener: Bramha Dutt VishwakarmaECSECS | Co-conveners: Anna KlosECSECS, Benoit Meyssignac, Vincent HumphreyECSECS, Carmen Blackwood
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room D1
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X2
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 16:15
NP4.1 EDI

Time series are a very common type of data sets generated by observational and modeling efforts across all fields of Earth, environmental and space sciences. The characteristics of such time series may however vastly differ from one another between different applications – short vs. long, linear vs. nonlinear, univariate vs. multivariate, single- vs. multi-scale, etc., equally calling for specifically tailored methodologies as well as generalist approaches. Similarly, also the specific task of time series analysis may span a vast body of problems, including
- dimensionality/complexity reduction and identification of statistically and/or dynamically meaningful modes of (co-)variability,
- statistical and/or dynamical modeling of time series using stochastic or deterministic time series models or empirical components derived from the data,
- characterization of variability patterns in time and/or frequency domain,
- quantification various aspects of time series complexity and predictability,
- identification and quantification of different flavors of statistical interdependencies within and between time series, and
- discrimination between mere correlation and true causality among two or more time series.
According to this broad range of potential analysis goals, there exists a continuously expanding plethora of time series analysis concepts, many of which are only known to domain experts and have hardly found applications beyond narrow fields despite being potentially relevant for others, too.

Given the broad relevance and rather heterogeneous application of time series analysis methods across disciplines, this session shall serve as a knowledge incubator fostering cross-disciplinary knowledge transfer and corresponding cross-fertilization among the different disciplines gathering at the EGU General Assembly. We equally solicit contributions on methodological developments and theoretical studies of different methodologies as well as applications and case studies highlighting the potentials as well as limitations of different techniques across all fields of Earth, environmental and space sciences and beyond.

Co-organized by BG2/CL5/EMRP2/ESSI1/G1/GI2/HS13/SM3/ST2
Convener: Reik Donner | Co-conveners: Tommaso AlbertiECSECS, Giorgia Di CapuaECSECS, Simone BenellaECSECS, Nina Kukowski
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room K2
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
OS1.3 EDI

The Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans exhibit pronounced variability in ocean processes and air-sea interactions on daily to decadal time scales, and are fringed by some of the most densely populated regions in the world. Both basins host, and are in turn influenced by, processes and teleconnections that shape our global climate, for instance: monsoons, the Benguela and Dakar Niños, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Interactions between these systems and climate modes are complicated and lead to a dynamic environment that can remain challenging to predict.

This session invites contributions based on observations, modelling, theory and palaeo proxy reconstructions that advance our understanding of Indian and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability, and its physical, biogeochemical and ecological influence on the ocean and atmosphere. We welcome studies on high-impact events of societal relevance, such as marine heat waves, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall, that might affect the human populations of the tropical Indo-Atlantic. Studies relating to the prediction of such events, and on the impacts of systematic model errors in simulating regional climate, are particularly welcome, including those that make use of novel methodologies such as machine learning.

Co-organized by CL5
Convener: Marta Martín-Rey | Co-conveners: Elsa Mohino, Joke Lübbecke, Jorge López-Parages, Caroline Ummenhofer, Peter Sheehan, Saurabh RathoreECSECS
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room L2
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
SC5.15

The climate is highly variable over wide ranges of scale in both space and time so that the amplitude of changes systematically depends on the scale of observations. As a consequence, climate variations recorded in time series or spatial distributions, which are produced through modelling or empirical analyses are inextricably linked to their space-time scales and is a significant part of the uncertainties in the proxy approaches. Rather than treating the variability as a limitation to our knowledge, as a distraction from mechanistic explanations and theories, in this course the variability is treated as an important, fundamental aspect of the climate dynamics that must be understood and modelled in its own right. Long considered as no more than an uninteresting spectral “background”, modern data shows that in fact it contains most of the variance.

We review techniques that make it possible to systematically analyse and model the variability of instrumental and proxy data, the inferred climate variables and the outputs of GCM’s. A serious but typical paleo problem is that the chronologies are irregular at all scales, indeed they they are typically scaling. We discuss analyses that can handle this problem and enable us to cover wide ranges of scale in both space and in time - and jointly in space-time - without trivializing the links between the measurements, proxies and the state variables (temperature, precipitation etc.).

Scaling analyses allow us to systematically allow us to compare model outputs with data, to understand the climate processes from small to large and from fast to slow. Specific tools that will be covered include spectral analysis, scaling fluctuation analysis, wavelets, fractals, multifractals, and stochastic modeling; we discuss corresponding software. We also include new developments in the Fractional Energy Balance Equation approach that combines energy and scale symmetries. In this’s short course we add material on the long term megaclimate (>1Myr) (geo-biology) regime.

Public information:

This is the first part of the short course, given by Shaun Lovejoy

Co-organized by AS6/CL5/CR8
Convener: Shaun Lovejoy | Co-conveners: Thomas Laepple, Christian Franzke
Mon, 15 Apr, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room N2
Mon, 19:00
ESSI2.9 EDI

Cloud computing has emerged as the dominant paradigm, supporting practically all industrial applications and a significant number of academic and research projects. Since its inception and subsequent widespread adoption, migrating to cloud computing has presented a substantial challenge for numerous organisations and enterprises. Leveraging cloud technologies to process big data in proximity to their physical location represents an ideal use case. These cloud resources provide the requisite infrastructure and tools, especially when accompanied by high-performance computing (HPC) capabilities.

Pangeo (pangeo.io) is a global community of researchers and developers that tackle big geoscience data challenges in a collaborative manner using HPC and Cloud infrastructure. This session's aim is threefold:
(1) Focuses on Cloud/Fog/Edge computing use cases and aims to identify the status and the steps towards a wider cloud computing adoption in Earth Observation and Earth System Modelling.
(2) to motivate researchers who are using or developing in the Pangeo ecosystem to share their endeavours with a broader community that can benefit from these new tools.
(3) to contribute to the Pangeo community in terms of potential new applications for the Pangeo ecosystem, containing the following core packages: Xarray, Iris, Dask, Jupyter, Zarr, Kerchunk and Intake.

We warmly welcome contributions that detail various Cloud computing initiatives within the domains of Earth Observation and Earth System Modelling, including but not limited to:
- Cloud federations, scalability and interoperability initiatives across different domains, multi-provenance data, security, privacy and green and sustainable computing.
- Cloud applications, infrastructure and platforms (IaaS, PaaS SaaS and XaaS).
- Cloud-native AI/ML frameworks and tools for processing data.
- Operational systems on the cloud.
- Cloud computing and HPC convergence and workload unification for EO data processing.

Also, presentations using at least one of Pangeo’s core packages in any of the following domains:
- Atmosphere, Ocean and Land Models
- Satellite Observations
- Machine Learning
- And other related applications

We welcome any contributions in the above themes presented as science-based in other EGU sessions, but more focused on research, data management, software and/or infrastructure aspects. For instance, you can showcase your implementation through live executable notebooks.

Co-organized by AS5/CL5/GI1/OS4
Convener: Tina Odaka | Co-conveners: Vasileios Baousis, Stathes Hadjiefthymiades, Anne Fouilloux, Alejandro Coca-CastroECSECS, Pier Lorenzo Marasco, Guillaume Eynard-Bontemps
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X3
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Tue, 16:15